Iran nuclear deal withdrawal could force other signatories to offer solutions

US President Donald Trump’s decision is historic and might have immense consequences for the US role in the Mideast. (AFP)
Updated 09 May 2018
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Iran nuclear deal withdrawal could force other signatories to offer solutions

  • Trump’s decision is historic and might have immense consequences for the US role in the Middle East
  • White House created a business environment that forced risk-averse banks and multinationals to adopt a wait-and-see policy on their dealings with Iran

US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal ends a political and diplomatic soap opera that has stretched on for months.

The US move can hardly have come as a surprise — Trump had made clear his contempt for Obama’s most significant international achievement, an agreement the US leader referred to as the “worst deal ever,” and described as “rotten and decaying” during his speech on Tuesday.

Trump’s decision is historic and might have immense consequences for the US role in the Middle East, but it highlights a sobering reality: The US never fully implemented the nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

With repeated threats, the White House created a business environment that forced risk-averse banks and multinationals to adopt a wait-and-see policy on their dealings with Iran. More than anything else, this prevented Iranians from enjoying the full benefits of the JCPOA. If the wave of investors Iran was expecting failed to arrive, it is because the expected regulatory earthquake did not happen.

The US never intended to relax its economic pressures on Iran. Washington refused to send the strong signs the financial world was seeking, including the removal of Iran from a Financial Action Task Force list created to counter money laundering and terrorism financing.

However, Trump’s announcement this week has not killed the JCPOA. The nuclear deal is not an international treaty. It has no legal status, and no power beyond the simple commitment of its signatories: Russia, China, France, Germany, the UK, EU and the US.

For different reasons, the other states have reiterated their commitment to full implementation of the nuclear deal.

For France and Germany, the JCPOA is the first step toward a broader agreement that would encompass Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional role. For the EU, the deal is its first and only diplomatic success. For Russia and China, it is a way to confront the US amid renewed economic tensions and the threat of a tariff war. For all the states, the deal represents a sound financial strategy to access a previously untapped market of 80 million people.

As Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif have said, Iran will stay in the deal as long as the other countries continue to support its implementation.

However, Trump’s decision to reinstate hard-hitting sanctions changes the situation, with non-US companies likely to face sanctions if they trade with Iran. Tehran will now look for concrete support to ease the pain sanctions will inflict on its economy.

While the EU might shy away from taking countermeasures over the US sanctions, Russia and China will have no such reservations. Iranians are looking toward the EU for a solution, but Trump’s decision is pushing them toward the East.

Such support will be crucial to help Rouhani fend off hard-liners who are pushing for his resignation. The Iranian leader’s announcement that Iran will start enriching uranium is a guarantee to those hard-liners, and the moratorium on uranium enrichment is his last call for help to the international community and, more specifically, the EU.

Without a clear response, Rouhani will be unable to resist those demanding a stronger stance. Some have argued Iran should follow North Korea’s path, leave the non-proliferation treaty, develop a bomb — and later receive an invitation to negotiate from the US president. For them, the US cannot be trusted and respects only strength.

The US will soon begin talks with North Korea on the removal of nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula, but Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal could damage its ability to inspire trust and bring meaningful support to diplomatic negotiations.

Many countries in the Arab world had rejected the Iran deal as a flawed agreement that failed to acknowledge the full threat Tehran represents and announced their support for Trump’s decision.

The Iran deal can survive the US withdrawal and might even benefit from it by forcing the other signatories to offer solutions. The agreement is imperfect, but it effectively reduced the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear bomb.

• Marc Martinez is a UAE-based country expert specializing in Iran.


Hamas military arm releases new video of Israeli hostage in Gaza

Updated 10 sec ago
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Hamas military arm releases new video of Israeli hostage in Gaza

The man identified himself as an Israeli hostage held in Gaza

JERUSALEM: The military arm of the Palestinian militant group Hamas released a video Saturday of a man identifying himself as an Israeli hostage held in Gaza since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
In the video, whose date cannot be verified, a man addresses US President-elect Donald Trump in English and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Hebrew.


The military arm of the Palestinian militant group Hamas released a video Saturday of a man identifying himself as an Israeli hostage held in Gaza since the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. (AFP/File)

Gaza rescuers say 3 aid workers killed in Israel strike

Updated 30 November 2024
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Gaza rescuers say 3 aid workers killed in Israel strike

  • The agency said the aid workers killed were Palestinian employees of World Central Kitchen
  • The US aid group did not immediately respond to AFP requests for comment

GAZA: Gaza’s civil defense agency said three aid workers were killed in an Israeli air strike in the Hamas-run territory on Saturday but the Israeli army said it killed a “terrorist.”
The agency said the aid workers killed were Palestinian employees of World Central Kitchen. The US aid group did not immediately respond to AFP requests for comment.
The Israeli army said it had “struck a vehicle with a terrorist that took part in the murderous October 7 massacre,” referring to militant group Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel last year.
“The claim that the terrorist was simultaneously a WCK worker is being examined,” it added in a statement.
Civil defense agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal said the bodies of “at least five dead were transported (to hospital), including (those of) the three employees of World Central Kitchen.”
“All three men worked for WCK and they were hit while driving in a WCK jeep in Khan Yunis,” Bassal said, adding that the vehicle had been “marked with its logo clearly visible.”
The Israeli army insisted its strike in the main southern city hit “a civilian unmarked vehicle and its movement on the route was not coordinated for transporting of aid.”
In April, an Israeli air strike killed seven WCK staff — an Australian, three Britons, a North American, a Palestinian and a Pole.
Israel said it had been targeting a “Hamas gunman” in that strike but the military admitted a series of “grave mistakes” and violations of its own rules of engagement.
The October 2023 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,207 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military offensive has killed 44,382 people in Gaza, according to figures from the territory’s health ministry which the United Nations considers reliable.


Several wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon, health ministry says

Updated 30 November 2024
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Several wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon, health ministry says

  • Later on Saturday, another person was injured in a separate Israeli strike on Al Bisariya
  • The Israeli military said it had attacked a Hezbollah facility

CAIRO: An Israeli strike on a car wounded three people, including a seven-year-old child, on Saturday in the south Lebanon village of Majdal Zoun, the Lebanese Health Ministry said in a statement.
Later on Saturday, another person was injured in a separate Israeli strike on Al Bisariya, which lies near the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, the ministry said.
The Israeli military said it had attacked a Hezbollah facility in Sidon that housed rocket launchers for the armed group.
It added that it had also hit a vehicle in southern Lebanon loaded with rocket-propelled grenades, ammunition and military equipment as part of its actions against ceasefire violations.
A truce came into effect on Wednesday, but both sides have accused each other of breaching a ceasefire that aims to halt over a year of fighting.


West faces ‘reckoning’ over Middle East radicalization: UK spy chief

Updated 30 November 2024
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West faces ‘reckoning’ over Middle East radicalization: UK spy chief

  • MI6 head Richard Moore cites ‘terrible loss of innocent life’
  • ‘In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state’

LONDON: The West has “yet to have a full reckoning with the radicalizing impact of the fighting, the terrible loss of innocent life in the Middle East and the horrors of Oct. 7,” the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service MI6 has warned.

Richard Moore made the comments in a speech delivered to the British Embassy in Paris, and was joined by his French counterpart Nicolas Lerner.

Moore said: “In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe, our shared European home, could hardly be more serious.”

Daesh is expanding its reach and staging deadly attacks in Iran and Russia despite suffering significant territorial setbacks, he added, warning that “the menace of terrorism has not gone away.”

In October last year, Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence service MI5, said his agency was monitoring for increased terror risks in the UK due to the Gaza war. More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza in over a year of fighting.

In Lebanon, a 60-day truce agreed this week between Hezbollah and Israel brought an end to a conflict that has killed thousands of Lebanese civilians.


Israel military strikes kill 32 Palestinians in Gaza, medics say

Updated 30 November 2024
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Israel military strikes kill 32 Palestinians in Gaza, medics say

  • Among the 32 killed, at least seven died in an Israeli strike on a house in central Gaza City

The Israeli military said it killed a Palestinian it accused of involvement in Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel in a vehicle strike in Gaza, and is investigating claims that the individual was an employee of aid group World Central Kitchen.
At least 32 Palestinians were killed in Israeli military strikes across Gaza overnight and into Saturday, with most casualties reported in northern areas, medics told Reuters.
Later on Saturday medics said seven people were killed when an Israeli air strike targeted a vehicle near a gathering of Palestinians receiving aid in the southern area of Khan Younis south of the enclave.
According to residents and a Hamas source, the vehicle targeted near a crowd receiving flour belonged to security personnel responsible for overseeing the delivery of aid shipments into Gaza.
Among the 32 killed, at least seven died in an Israeli strike on a house in central Gaza City, according to a statement from the Gaza Civil Defense and the official Palestinian news agency WAFA early on Saturday.
The Gaza Civil Defense also reported that one of its officers was killed in attacks in northern Gaza’s Jabalia, bringing the total number of civil defense workers killed since October 7, 2023, to 88.
Earlier on Saturday, WAFA reported that three employees of the World Central Kitchen, a US-based, non-governmental humanitarian agency, were killed when a civilian vehicle was targeted in Khan Younis, southern Gaza.
The World Central Kitchen has not yet commented on the incident.