Kim Jong Un could give up ICBMs but keep some nuclear forces

This combination of photos shows a file photo taken on June 11, 2018 of US President Donald Trump (L) during his meeting with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (not pictured) at The Istana, the official residence of the prime minister, in Singapore; and a file image of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (R) during his meeting with the Singaporean leader the day before on June 10, 2018, in Singapore. (AFP)
Updated 12 June 2018
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Kim Jong Un could give up ICBMs but keep some nuclear forces

  • North Korea’s attitude toward dialogue in the past two years has seemed to shift with setbacks or progress in its weapons tests
  • Kim is probably modeling a nuclear future after Pakistan, which began building a nuclear arsenal in the 1990s to deter India

SEOUL, South Korea: After years of effort to develop nuclear missiles that can target the US mainland, is North Korean leader Kim Jong Un really ready to pack them away in a deal with President Donald Trump?
Perhaps, but that wouldn’t necessarily mean Pyongyang is abandoning its nuclear ambitions entirely.
Tuesday’s meeting in Singapore between Kim and Trump comes after a sharp turn in North Korea’s diplomacy, from rebuffing proposals for dialogue last year to embracing and even initiating them this year. The change may reflect a new thinking about its nuclear deterrence strategy — and how best to secure the ultimate goal of protecting Kim’s rule.
A look at how Kim’s appetite for talks swung amid the North’s ups and downs in weapons development and what that says about how he might approach his negotiations with Trump:

TESTS AND TALKS
North Korea’s attitude toward dialogue in the past two years has seemed to shift with setbacks or progress in its weapons tests.
Even after starting a rapid process of weapons development following a nuclear test in January 2016, Pyongyang constantly invited rivals to talks that year.
It proposed military meetings with Seoul to reduce tensions and indicated it could suspend its nuclear and missile tests if the US-South Korean military drills were dialed back. Washington and Seoul demurred, saying Pyongyang first must show genuine intent to denuclearize.
At the time, North Korea’s quest for a credible nuclear deterrent against the US was troubled. The military conducted eight tests of its “Musudan” intermediate-range missile in 2016, but only one of those launches was seen as successful. The country’s path toward an intercontinental-range ballistic missile appeared cut off.
North Korea’s stance on dialogue changed dramatically, though, following the successful test of a new rocket engine in March 2017, which the country hailed as a significant breakthrough.
The engine, believed to be a variant of the Russian-designed RD-250, powered a successful May flight of a new intermediate-range missile, the Hwasong-12, reopening the path to an ICBM. That was followed in July by two successful tests of an ICBM, the Hwasong-14.
Pyongyang’s demands for talks disappeared. Proposals to meet from a new liberal government in Seoul were ignored. Determined to test its weapons in operational conditions, the North flew two Hwasong-12s over Japan and threatened to fire them toward Guam, a US military hub.
The North’s state media brought up President Richard Nixon’s outreach to Beijing in the 1970s following a Chinese test of a thermonuclear bomb, saying it was likewise inevitable that Washington will accept North Korea as a nuclear power and take steps to normalize ties.
Kim talked of reaching a military “equilibrium” with the US By all signs, he was fully committed to completing an ICBM program he intended to keep.

THE DETERRENCE GAME
Kim’s turn toward diplomacy this year suggests he may have concluded the nuclear deterrence strategy was failing, some analysts say.
After a November test of a larger ICBM, the Hwasong-15, Kim proclaimed his nuclear force as complete, but his announcement may have been more politically motivated than an assessment of capability.
Although the Hwasong-15 displayed a greater range than the Hwasong-14, there was no clear sign the North had made meaningful progress in the technology needed to ensure that a warhead would survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric re-entry.
New US National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy reports released in December and January respectively also seemed to reduce the credibility of Kim’s deterrence plans, said Hwang Ildo, a professor at Seoul’s Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
In the documents, the US assesses it could sufficiently defend against the small number of North Korean ICBMs — believed to be about 10 or fewer — with its 44 ground-based interceptors deployed in Alaska. Missiles fired from North Korea would have to pass Alaska to reach the US mainland.
Experts are divided on whether the interceptors, which Washington plans to deploy in larger numbers soon, can be counted on to destroy incoming warheads. However, Hwang said, real capability doesn’t matter as much as Trump believing that the system works, which reduces the bargaining power of the ICBMs.
Kim can’t be the Mao Zedong to Trump’s Nixon if the US sees his weapons as containable. With North Korea’s limited resources, as well as the threat of a pre-emptive US attack, it’s difficult for the North to mass produce enough ICBMs to overwhelm the interceptors in Alaska.
Rather than prolonging his nation’s economic suffering, Kim may have concluded it would be better to deal away his ICBMs at the cusp of operational capability, especially when it was no longer clear the missiles would guarantee his survival.
“North Korea always tries to maintain flexibility and increase its options from step to step,” Hwang said.

A PAKISTANI MODEL?
What never changes for North Korea is that the survival of the Kim regime comes first.
Nam Sung-wook, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Korea University, said Kim is probably modeling a nuclear future after Pakistan, which began building a nuclear arsenal in the 1990s to deter India. Pakistan is now estimated to have more than 100 warheads that are deliverable by short- and medium-range weapons and aircraft.
Kim may be seeking a deal where he gives up his ICBMs but keeps his shorter-range arsenal, which may satisfy Trump but drive a wedge between Washington and its Asian allies, Seoul and Tokyo. In drills with shorter-range weapons in 2016, the North demonstrated the potential to carry out nuclear attacks on South Korean ports and US military facilities in Japan.
In negotiations, Kim may try to exclude submarine technologies from a freeze or verification process to leave open a path toward sub-launched ballistic missile systems, Hwang said.
Then, if diplomacy fails and Kim goes back to building nuclear weapons, the systems would expand their reach and provide a second-strike capability to retaliate if North Korea’s land-based launch sites are destroyed.
North Korea successfully tested a submarine-launched missile that flew about 500 kilometers (310 miles) in August 2016. Analysts believe the solid-fuel missile can hit targets as far as 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) away.
That said, it would take years for the North to develop a fleet of submarines that can quietly travel deep into the Pacific.
The immediate outcome of the summit in Singapore is likely to be a vague aspirational statement on the North’s denuclearization, Nam said. When it comes to details, Washington and Pyongyang are destined to “muddle through” a lengthy process, wrestling over the terms of monitoring and inspections, he said.
Still, such a process would halt the growth of the North’s nuclear program and prevent it from using its weapons to flex its diplomatic muscle, Nam said. It could take a decade or so for Kim to find his next move in nuclear deterrence if he’s eyeing a submarine-launched system. That could be enough time for Washington, Seoul and others to convince Kim he just can’t win the nuclear game.


Trump blasts 'communist' winner of NY Democratic primary

Updated 8 sec ago
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Trump blasts 'communist' winner of NY Democratic primary

  • Trump’s White House has repeatedly threatened to curb funding for Democratic-led US cities if they oppose his policies, including cutting off money to so-called sanctuary cities which limit their cooperation with immigration authorities

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump branded the winner of New York City’s mayoral Democratic primary a “pure communist” in remarks that aired Sunday, an epithet the progressive candidate dismissed as political theatrics.
Zohran Mamdani’s shock win last week against a scandal-scarred political heavyweight resonated as a thunderclap within the party, and drew the ire of Trump and his collaborators, who accused Mamdani of being a radical extremist.
The Republican’s aggressive criticism of the self-described democratic socialist is sure to ramp up over the coming months as Trump’s party seeks to push Democrats away from the political center and frame them as too radical to win major US elections.
“He’s pure communist” and a “radical leftist... lunatic,” Trump fumed on Fox News talk show “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.”
“I think it’s very bad for New York,” added Trump, who grew up in the city and built his sprawling real estate business there.
“If he does get in, I’m going to be president and he is going to have to do the right thing (or) they’re not getting any money” from the federal government.
Trump’s White House has repeatedly threatened to curb funding for Democratic-led US cities if they oppose his policies, including cutting off money to so-called sanctuary cities which limit their cooperation with immigration authorities.
Mamdani also took to the talk shows Sunday, asserting he would “absolutely” maintain New York’s status as a sanctuary city so that “New Yorkers can get out of the shadows and into the full life of the city that they belong to.”
Asked directly on NBC’s “Meet the Press” whether he is a communist, Mamdani — a 33-year-old immigrant aiming to become New York’s first Muslim mayor — responded “No, I am not.
“And I have already had to start to get used to the fact that the president will talk about how I look, how I sound, where I’m from, who I am, ultimately because he wants to distract from what I’m fighting for,” Mamdani said.
“I’m fighting for the very working people that he ran a campaign to empower, that he has since then betrayed.”
The Ugandan-born state assemblyman had trailed former governor Andrew Cuomo in polls but surged on a message of lower rents, free daycare and buses, and other populist ideas in the notoriously expensive metropolis.
Although registered Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one in New York, victory for Mamdani in November is not assured.
Current Mayor Eric Adams is a Democrat but is campaigning for re-election as an independent, while Cuomo may also run unaffiliated.

 


US Senate pushes ahead on Trump tax cuts as nonpartisan analysis raises price tag

Updated 1 min 11 sec ago
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US Senate pushes ahead on Trump tax cuts as nonpartisan analysis raises price tag

  • The Senate only narrowly advanced the tax-cut, immigration, border and military spending bill in a procedural vote late on Saturday, voting 51-49 to open debate on the 940-page megabill

WASHINGTON: The US Senate version of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill will add $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt, about $800 billion more than the version passed last month by the House of Representatives, a nonpartisan forecaster said on Sunday.
The Congressional Budget Office issued its estimate of the bill’s hit to the $36.2 trillion federal debt as Senate Republicans sought to push the bill forward in a marathon weekend session.
Republicans, who have long voiced concern about growing US deficits and debt, have rejected the CBO’s longstanding methodology to calculate the cost of legislation. But Democrats hope the latest, eye-widening figure could stoke enough anxiety among fiscally-minded conservatives to get them to buck their party, which controls both chambers of Congress.
The Senate only narrowly advanced the tax-cut, immigration, border and military spending bill in a procedural vote late on Saturday, voting 51-49 to open debate on the 940-page megabill.
Trump on social media hailed Saturday’s vote as a “great victory” for his “great, big, beautiful bill.”
In an illustration of the depths of the divide within the Republican Party over the bill, Senator Thom Tillis said he would not seek re-election next year, after Trump threatened to back a primary challenger in retribution for Tillis’ Saturday night vote against the bill.
Tillis’ North Carolina seat is one of the few Republican Senate seats seen as vulnerable in next year’s midterm elections. He was one of just two Republicans to vote no on Saturday.
Trump wants the bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday. While that deadline is one of choice, lawmakers will face a far more serious deadline later this summer when they must raise the nation’s self-imposed debt ceiling or risk a devastating default on $36.2 trillion in debt.
“We are going to make sure hardworking people can keep more of their money,” Senator Katie Britt, an Alabama Republican, told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday.

HITS TO BENEFITS
Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, said this legislation would come to haunt Republicans if it gets approved, predicting 16 million Americans would lose their health insurance.
“Many of my Republican friends know ... they’re walking the plank on this and we’ll see if those who’ve expressed quiet consternation will actually have the courage of their convictions,” Warner told CBS News’ “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.”
The legislation has been the sole focus of a marathon weekend congressional session marked by political drama, division and lengthy delays as Democrats seek to slow the legislation’s path to passage.
Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer called for the entire text of the bill to be read on the Senate floor, a process that began before midnight Saturday and ran well into Sunday afternoon. Following that lawmakers will begin up to 20 hours of debate on the legislation. That will be followed by an amendment session, known as a “vote-a-rama,” before the Senate votes on passage. Lawmakers said they hoped to complete work on the bill on Monday.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, the other Republican “no” vote, opposed the legislation because it would raise the federal borrowing limit by an additional $5 trillion.
“Did Rand Paul Vote ‘NO’ again tonight? What’s wrong with this guy???” Trump said on social media.
The megabill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump’s main legislative achievement during his first term as president, cut other taxes and boost spending on the military and border security.
Representative Michael McCaul, however, warned that fellow Republicans who do not back Trump on the bill could face payback from voters.
“They know that their jobs are at risk. Not just from the president, but from the voting — the American people. Our base back home will not reelect us to office if we vote no on this,” McCaul also told CBS News.
Senate Republicans, who reject the CBO’s estimates on the cost of the legislation, are set on using an alternative calculation method that does not factor in costs from extending the 2017 tax cuts. Outside tax experts, like Andrew Lautz from the nonpartisan think tank Bipartisan Policy Center, call it a “magic trick.”
Using this calculation method, the Senate Republicans’ budget bill appears to cost substantially less and seems to save $500 billion, according to the BPC analysis.
If the Senate passes the bill, it will then return to the House of Representatives for final passage before Trump can sign it into law. The House passed its version of the bill last month.


Cold baths, climate shelters as Southern Europe heat wave intensifies

Updated 29 June 2025
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Cold baths, climate shelters as Southern Europe heat wave intensifies

  • Peaks of 43 degrees Celsius were expected in areas of southern Spain and Portugal, while nearly all of France is sweltering in heat expected to last for several days

ROME: Authorities across Southern Europe urged people to seek shelter Sunday and protect the most vulnerable as punishing temperatures from Spain to Portugal, Italy and France climbed higher in the summer’s first major heat wave.

Ambulances stood on standby near tourist hotspots and regions issued fire warnings as experts warned that such heat waves, intensified by climate change, would become more frequent.

Peaks of 43 degrees Celsius were expected in areas of southern Spain and Portugal, while nearly all of France is sweltering in heat expected to last for several days.

In Italy, 21 cities were on high alert for extreme heat, including Milan, Naples, Venice, Florence and Rome.

“We were supposed to be visiting the Colosseum, but my mum nearly fainted,” said British tourist Anna Becker, who had traveled to Rome from a “muggy, miserable” Verona.

Hospital emergency departments across Italy have reported an uptick in heatstroke cases, according to Mario Guarino, vice president of the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine.

“We’ve seen around a 10 percent increase, mainly in cities that not only have very high temperatures but also a higher humidity rate. It is mainly elderly people, cancer patients or homeless people, presenting with dehydration, heat stroke, fatigue,” he told AFP.

Hospitals like the Ospedale dei Colli in Naples have set up dedicated heatstroke pathways to speed access to vital treatments like cold water immersion, Guarino said.

In Venice, authorities offered free guided tours for people over 75s in air-conditioned museums and public buildings.


Facing possible prison, former Brazilian president Bolsonaro seeks to rally faithful

Updated 29 June 2025
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Facing possible prison, former Brazilian president Bolsonaro seeks to rally faithful

  • Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro faces decades in prison if convicted of plotting to cling to power despite losing the 2022 election

SAO PAULO: Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro called for his supporters to rally Sunday in his defense, as he faces decades in prison if convicted of plotting to cling to power despite losing the 2022 election.
“Brazil needs all of us. It’s for freedom, for justice,” the far-right former president (2019-2022) said on X, urging his supporters to march along Sao Paulo’s Paulista Avenue, a key thoroughfare of Latin America’s largest metropolis.
“This is a call for us to show strength... this massive presence will give us courage,” he declared Saturday night on the AuriVerde Brasil YouTube channel.
The demonstration — which already had drawn crowds of Bolsonaro supporters by mid-morning Sunday — follows a hectic several weeks for the embattled ex-leader.
During a key phase in his Supreme Court trial earlier this month, he denied involvement in an alleged coup plot to wrest back power after leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly beat Bolsonaro at the ballot box in October 2022.
Brazil’s police have also called for Bolsonaro to be separately charged with illegal espionage while president, along with his son.
Bolsonaro, 70, has rejected any wrongdoing, claiming the various cases against him amount to politically motivated judicial hounding, aimed at preventing him from making a comeback in the 2026 elections.
The former army captain dreams of emulating Donald Trump’s return to the White House, despite being banned from holding public office until 2030 over his attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system.
Bolsonaro had already called for several protests throughout his legal saga, but attendance appears to have declined in recent months.
According to estimates by the University of Sao Paulo, some 45,000 people participated in the most recent march on Paulista Avenue in April, almost four times fewer than in February.
Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas said he would attend the march and urged others to join.
“We need to talk about freedom... we are going to promote peace.”
De Freitas, a former Bolsonaro minister, is a top candidate to represent the conservatives in the 2026 presidential election.


Pakistan flash floods, heavy rain kill 45 in just days

Updated 29 June 2025
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Pakistan flash floods, heavy rain kill 45 in just days

  • The national meteorological service warned that the risk of heavy rain and possible flash floods will remain high until at least Saturday

ISLAMABAD: Heavy rain and flash flooding across Pakistan have killed 45 people in just a few days since the start of the monsoon season, disaster management officials said Sunday.
The highest toll was recorded in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that borders Afghanistan, where 10 children were among 21 killed.
The disaster management authority said 14 of those victims died in the Swat Valley, where media reported a flash flood swept away families on a riverbank.
In Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab, along the frontier with India, 13 fatalities have been recorded since Wednesday.
Eight of them were children who died when walls or roofs collapsed during heavy rain, while the adults were killed in flash floods.
Eleven other deaths related to the monsoon downpours were recorded in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
The national meteorological service warned that the risk of heavy rain and possible flash floods will remain high until at least Saturday.
Last month, at least 32 people were killed in severe storms in the South Asian nation, which experienced several extreme weather events in the spring, including strong hailstorms.
Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and its 240 million residents are facing extreme weather events with increasing frequency.