Kim Jong Un could give up ICBMs but keep some nuclear forces

This combination of photos shows a file photo taken on June 11, 2018 of US President Donald Trump (L) during his meeting with Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (not pictured) at The Istana, the official residence of the prime minister, in Singapore; and a file image of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (R) during his meeting with the Singaporean leader the day before on June 10, 2018, in Singapore. (AFP)
Updated 12 June 2018
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Kim Jong Un could give up ICBMs but keep some nuclear forces

  • North Korea’s attitude toward dialogue in the past two years has seemed to shift with setbacks or progress in its weapons tests
  • Kim is probably modeling a nuclear future after Pakistan, which began building a nuclear arsenal in the 1990s to deter India

SEOUL, South Korea: After years of effort to develop nuclear missiles that can target the US mainland, is North Korean leader Kim Jong Un really ready to pack them away in a deal with President Donald Trump?
Perhaps, but that wouldn’t necessarily mean Pyongyang is abandoning its nuclear ambitions entirely.
Tuesday’s meeting in Singapore between Kim and Trump comes after a sharp turn in North Korea’s diplomacy, from rebuffing proposals for dialogue last year to embracing and even initiating them this year. The change may reflect a new thinking about its nuclear deterrence strategy — and how best to secure the ultimate goal of protecting Kim’s rule.
A look at how Kim’s appetite for talks swung amid the North’s ups and downs in weapons development and what that says about how he might approach his negotiations with Trump:

TESTS AND TALKS
North Korea’s attitude toward dialogue in the past two years has seemed to shift with setbacks or progress in its weapons tests.
Even after starting a rapid process of weapons development following a nuclear test in January 2016, Pyongyang constantly invited rivals to talks that year.
It proposed military meetings with Seoul to reduce tensions and indicated it could suspend its nuclear and missile tests if the US-South Korean military drills were dialed back. Washington and Seoul demurred, saying Pyongyang first must show genuine intent to denuclearize.
At the time, North Korea’s quest for a credible nuclear deterrent against the US was troubled. The military conducted eight tests of its “Musudan” intermediate-range missile in 2016, but only one of those launches was seen as successful. The country’s path toward an intercontinental-range ballistic missile appeared cut off.
North Korea’s stance on dialogue changed dramatically, though, following the successful test of a new rocket engine in March 2017, which the country hailed as a significant breakthrough.
The engine, believed to be a variant of the Russian-designed RD-250, powered a successful May flight of a new intermediate-range missile, the Hwasong-12, reopening the path to an ICBM. That was followed in July by two successful tests of an ICBM, the Hwasong-14.
Pyongyang’s demands for talks disappeared. Proposals to meet from a new liberal government in Seoul were ignored. Determined to test its weapons in operational conditions, the North flew two Hwasong-12s over Japan and threatened to fire them toward Guam, a US military hub.
The North’s state media brought up President Richard Nixon’s outreach to Beijing in the 1970s following a Chinese test of a thermonuclear bomb, saying it was likewise inevitable that Washington will accept North Korea as a nuclear power and take steps to normalize ties.
Kim talked of reaching a military “equilibrium” with the US By all signs, he was fully committed to completing an ICBM program he intended to keep.

THE DETERRENCE GAME
Kim’s turn toward diplomacy this year suggests he may have concluded the nuclear deterrence strategy was failing, some analysts say.
After a November test of a larger ICBM, the Hwasong-15, Kim proclaimed his nuclear force as complete, but his announcement may have been more politically motivated than an assessment of capability.
Although the Hwasong-15 displayed a greater range than the Hwasong-14, there was no clear sign the North had made meaningful progress in the technology needed to ensure that a warhead would survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric re-entry.
New US National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy reports released in December and January respectively also seemed to reduce the credibility of Kim’s deterrence plans, said Hwang Ildo, a professor at Seoul’s Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
In the documents, the US assesses it could sufficiently defend against the small number of North Korean ICBMs — believed to be about 10 or fewer — with its 44 ground-based interceptors deployed in Alaska. Missiles fired from North Korea would have to pass Alaska to reach the US mainland.
Experts are divided on whether the interceptors, which Washington plans to deploy in larger numbers soon, can be counted on to destroy incoming warheads. However, Hwang said, real capability doesn’t matter as much as Trump believing that the system works, which reduces the bargaining power of the ICBMs.
Kim can’t be the Mao Zedong to Trump’s Nixon if the US sees his weapons as containable. With North Korea’s limited resources, as well as the threat of a pre-emptive US attack, it’s difficult for the North to mass produce enough ICBMs to overwhelm the interceptors in Alaska.
Rather than prolonging his nation’s economic suffering, Kim may have concluded it would be better to deal away his ICBMs at the cusp of operational capability, especially when it was no longer clear the missiles would guarantee his survival.
“North Korea always tries to maintain flexibility and increase its options from step to step,” Hwang said.

A PAKISTANI MODEL?
What never changes for North Korea is that the survival of the Kim regime comes first.
Nam Sung-wook, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Korea University, said Kim is probably modeling a nuclear future after Pakistan, which began building a nuclear arsenal in the 1990s to deter India. Pakistan is now estimated to have more than 100 warheads that are deliverable by short- and medium-range weapons and aircraft.
Kim may be seeking a deal where he gives up his ICBMs but keeps his shorter-range arsenal, which may satisfy Trump but drive a wedge between Washington and its Asian allies, Seoul and Tokyo. In drills with shorter-range weapons in 2016, the North demonstrated the potential to carry out nuclear attacks on South Korean ports and US military facilities in Japan.
In negotiations, Kim may try to exclude submarine technologies from a freeze or verification process to leave open a path toward sub-launched ballistic missile systems, Hwang said.
Then, if diplomacy fails and Kim goes back to building nuclear weapons, the systems would expand their reach and provide a second-strike capability to retaliate if North Korea’s land-based launch sites are destroyed.
North Korea successfully tested a submarine-launched missile that flew about 500 kilometers (310 miles) in August 2016. Analysts believe the solid-fuel missile can hit targets as far as 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) away.
That said, it would take years for the North to develop a fleet of submarines that can quietly travel deep into the Pacific.
The immediate outcome of the summit in Singapore is likely to be a vague aspirational statement on the North’s denuclearization, Nam said. When it comes to details, Washington and Pyongyang are destined to “muddle through” a lengthy process, wrestling over the terms of monitoring and inspections, he said.
Still, such a process would halt the growth of the North’s nuclear program and prevent it from using its weapons to flex its diplomatic muscle, Nam said. It could take a decade or so for Kim to find his next move in nuclear deterrence if he’s eyeing a submarine-launched system. That could be enough time for Washington, Seoul and others to convince Kim he just can’t win the nuclear game.


Spain dreads more flood deaths as rain pounds Catalonia

Updated 04 November 2024
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Spain dreads more flood deaths as rain pounds Catalonia

  • The toll stands at 217 dead — almost all in the eastern Valencia region — with the country dreading the discovery of more corpses

VALENCIA: Rescuers plunged into inundated garages on Monday to find victims of Spain’s deadliest floods in a generation as fresh downpours sparked transport chaos in the northeastern region of Catalonia.
The toll stands at 217 dead — almost all in the eastern Valencia region — with the country dreading the discovery of more corpses as an unknown number of people remain missing.
National weather service AEMET announced the end of the emergency for Valencia but torrential rain struck Catalonia, where residents received telephone alerts urging the utmost caution.
Barcelona’s El Prat airport, Spain’s second busiest, said 50 flights were canceled or delayed and 17 diverted on Monday, while the city closed some flooded metro stations and regional trains were suspended.
Images on social media showed cars plowing through flooded roads in the Barcelona suburbs of Castelldefels and Gava and bare-footed travelers wading through water that had seeped into El Prat.
Spain also grappled with the aftermath of an extraordinary outburst of popular anger in which crowds heckled and hurled mud at King Felipe VI, Queen Letizia and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
The Civil Guard has opened an investigation into the chaos in the ground-zero town of Paiporta that cut short their visit on Sunday, Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told public broadcaster TVE.
He blamed “marginal groups” for instigating the violence where mud spattered the monarchs’ face and clothes and a window of Sanchez’s car was broken.


The incident underscored growing anger at the authorities’ preparation for and reaction to the catastrophe.
Experts have questioned the warning systems that failed to alert the population in time and the speed of the response.
“They were saying ‘alert for water’, but they should have said it was a flood,” Teresa Gisbert, 62, told AFP in the destroyed town of Sedavi, saying she had “lost everything.”
Thousands of soldiers, police officers, civil guards and firefighters spent a sixth day distributing aid and clearing mud and debris to find bodies.
But relief works only reached some towns days after the disaster and in many cases volunteers were the first to provide food, water, sanitation and cleaning equipment.
“We shouldn’t romanticize it: the people saved the people because we were abandoned,” said Jorge, 25, a resident of the town of Chiva where the royals canceled their visit on Sunday.
Divers on Monday concentrated their search for missing bodies in garages and a multi-story car park in the town of Aldaia.
The storm caught many victims in their vehicles on roads and in underground spaces such as car parks, tunnels and garages where rescue operations are particularly difficult.
Local authorities in Valencia extended travel restrictions for another two days, canceled classes and urged residents to work from home to facilitate the work of the emergency services.

The unity that bound Spain’s polarized politics when the tragedy struck started to fray as attention turned to those responsible for handling the crisis.
Far-right party Vox slammed Spain’s “failed” state, blaming Sanchez for the slow deployment of troops and “demonizing” volunteers. The hard-left Podemos demanded the resignation of the Valencia region’s conservative leader Carlos Mazon.
Sanchez has said now is not the time to scrutinize the management of the disaster during urgent rescue and reconstruction work.
The main opposition Popular Party urged the left-wing government to go further by declaring a national emergency and approving aid packages for individual citizens.
Storms coming off the Mediterranean are common during this season. But scientists have warned human-induced climate change is increasing the ferocity, length and frequency of extreme weather events.
“Politicians haven’t acted on climate change, and now we’re paying the consequences of their inaction,” environmental activist Emi, 21, told AFP in Chiva.


India’s Rajasthan state seeks Saudi investment with roadshow in Riyadh, Jeddah 

Updated 04 November 2024
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India’s Rajasthan state seeks Saudi investment with roadshow in Riyadh, Jeddah 

  • Rajasthan is aiming to double its state GDP to $350 billion in next five years
  • State seeks Saudi investment in engineering, food processing, agro-solutions 

NEW DELHI: The government of India’s Rajasthan state is seeking Saudi investment in its growing industries, its minister told Arab News on Monday as he leads an official delegation to meet investors and business leaders in the Kingdom. 

Rajasthan, India’s largest state by area, is gearing up to host a global investment summit in its capital Jaipur next month as part of the goal to double the state’s gross domestic product to $350 billion in the next five years. 

The summit is aimed at attracting international investors and fostering new partnerships in various sectors, including renewable energy, electric vehicles, infrastructure, startups and tourism. 

Ahead of the event, the state government has organized a roadshow in Riyadh and Jeddah this week to invite Saudi officials and business players to invest in Rajasthan. 

“Saudi Arabia is one of the largest and key economies in the West Asian region that is of immense significance to Rajasthan from the perspective of furthering trade and other partnerships,” Rajasthan’s Minister of State for Industry and Commerce K. K. Vishnoi, told Arab News. 

“The sectors that remain our key focus from the perspective of seeking Saudi investment include engineering, machinery and equipment, investment advisory, agro solutions, food processing and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) distribution, among others.” 

Rajasthan officials are scheduled to meet leading Saudi companies operating in these sectors, and will present the state’s strategic advantages while also offering key incentives to potential investors, he added. 

As part of his visit to the Kingdom, Vishnoi held talks on Monday with the Saudi Assistant Minister of Investment Ibrahim Yousef Al-Mubarak, according to a release issued by the state government. 

“The delegation will also extend an invitation to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to participate in the investment summit as a partner country,” it said. 

Saudi Arabia is India’s fifth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at about $43 billion in the 2023-2024 financial year, accounting for more than 4.5 percent of India’s total trade. 


Philippines to pursue sustainability, halal sector projects with Saudi businesses

Updated 04 November 2024
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Philippines to pursue sustainability, halal sector projects with Saudi businesses

  • Top Philippine, Saudi business bodies signed an agreement to boost trade ties last week
  • The memorandum is ‘significant milestone’ in Saudi-Philippine relations, commerce body says

MANILA: The Philippines is seeking new partnerships with Saudi Arabia in the sustainability and halal sectors, the Department of Trade and Industry said on Monday after the two countries’ top business bodies signed an agreement to enhance economic ties.

The Federation of Saudi Chambers and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a memorandum of understanding in Riyadh last week, aimed at boosting trade and investment between the two countries.

“The collaboration sets the stage for ongoing exchanges that will drive sustainable growth across sectors,” the DTI said in a statement of the PCCI pact.

The agreement was a “significant milestone” in Saudi-Philippine relations and will be “a foundation for projects aligned with both countries’ goal(s) in sustainable development, trade expansion, and cultural ties,” it added.

The PCCI was part of a DTI-led delegation comprising government agencies and business leaders, whose mission to the Kingdom will conclude on Tuesday.

The mission was organized to promote the Philippines’ halal industry, as Manila has set out to expand it significantly. This includes doubling the number of its halal-certified products and services, raise 230 billion pesos ($4 billion) in investments, and generate around 120,000 jobs by 2028.

To achieve those goals, the Philippines is also working to tap into the global halal market — estimated to be worth more than $7 trillion — through new collaborations with countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia.

“This is a good beginning where we can open the gate so that we could collaborate between two countries … we can restart and redevelop our business between the Philippines and Saudi Arabia,” Elsie Chua, business executive and co-chair of the Philippines-Saudi Business Council, told Arab News.

Chua said there were opportunities under the Saudi Vision 2030 plan, including in construction, food security and wellness.

“I can foresee we could reach not only in (halal) food … but also in cosmetics, etc.,” she said. “Next year, we will bring a bigger delegation to be led by our president of the PCCI … wherein we will also bring designers, architects as well as construction companies.”

Manila recorded a rise in Philippine-Saudi trade from 2022 to 2023. This followed President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Riyadh last October, during which a $4.26 billion investment agreement was signed with the Kingdom’s business leaders.


Germany’s top diplomat in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

Updated 04 November 2024
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Germany’s top diplomat in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

  • Germany is Ukraine’s second biggest weapons supplier after the US
  • Ahead of the US vote, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky attempted to lock Ukraine’s Western supporters into a long-term “victory plan”

KYIV, Ukraine: Germany’s top diplomat arrived Monday in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on an unannounced visit, in what appeared to be a show of European support for Ukraine on the eve of a US presidential election that could bring far-reaching changes in Washington’s policy toward Russia’s all-out invasion of its neighbor.
Germany is Ukraine’s second biggest weapons supplier after the US, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock vowed that Berlin’s backing would remain steadfast.
“Together with many partners around the world, Germany stands firmly by Ukraine’s side,” she said, German news agency dpa reported. “We will support the Ukrainians for as long as they need us so that they can continue on their path to a just peace.”
The war is at a critical moment for Ukraine, with the Russian army making creeping gains on the battlefield and another hard winter ahead after Russia relentlessly battered the Ukrainian power grid.
Ahead of the US vote, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky attempted to lock Ukraine’s Western supporters into a long-term “victory plan,” including a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia, but the response was disappointing for Kyiv officials.
Russia is using its superior numbers to heap pressure on Ukrainian positions along the front line. Ukraine’s top commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Saturday his troops are struggling to hold back “one of the most powerful (Russian) offensives” of the war.
Russia is now adding to its offensive push what Western intelligence sources say is a force of about 10,000 North Korean combat troops sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.
That has deepened Zelensky’s frustration with Western help. On Saturday, he urged allies to stop “watching” and take steps before the North Korean troops reach the battlefield.
Zelensky said Kyiv knows at which Russian camps the North Korean troops are being trained but Ukraine can’t strike them without permission from allies to use the Western-made long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.
Baerbock arrived in Kyiv hours after debris from drones intercepted by air defenses fell in two districts of the city, starting small fires, officials said. No people or property were harmed, according to the head of the Kyiv city administration, Serhii Popko.
A Russian glide bomb attack on Sunday night injured 15 people in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast, regional police said.
Russia fired some 80 Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities overnight, Ukraine’s air force said.


Pakistan anti-polio drive struggles against militants, mistrust

Updated 04 November 2024
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Pakistan anti-polio drive struggles against militants, mistrust

  • Cases in Pakistan are on the rise, with 45 registered so far this year, up from six in 2023 and only one in 2021

Peshawar: Militant attacks and suspicion stemming from misinformation are hampering Pakistan’s battle to eradicate polio, but teams of dedicated volunteer health workers are determined to fight on.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only countries where the debilitating virus remains endemic, the disease mostly affecting children under five and sometimes causing lifelong paralysis.
Cases in Pakistan are on the rise, with 45 registered so far this year, up from six in 2023 and only one in 2021.
Polio can easily be prevented by the oral administration of a few drops of vaccine, but in parts of rural Pakistan health workers risk their lives to save others.
Last week seven people including five children were killed when a bomb targeted police traveling to guard vaccine workers. Days earlier two police escorts were gunned down by militants.
“When we hear that a polio vaccination team has been attacked, it deeply saddens us,” said health worker Zainab Sultan, 28, as she went door to door in Panam Dehri in northwest Pakistan
“Our responsibility now is to continue our work. Our job is to protect people from disability, to vaccinate children, and to make them healthy members of society.”
In the past firebrand clerics falsely claimed the vaccine contained pork or alcohol, forbidding it for consumption by Muslims.
A fake vaccination campaign organized by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Pakistan in 2011 to track Osama bin Laden compounded the mistrust.
More recently, militant groups have shifted to targeting armed police escorts in their campaigns of violence against the state.
Pakistan has witnessed a dramatic uptick in attacks since the return of the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan in 2021, with Islamabad claiming hostile groups are now operating from there.
“In our area, nearly half of the parents were initially resistant to the polio vaccine, believing it to be a ploy by the West,” said local resident Ehsanullah, who goes by one name.
“There was a lack of awareness,” he said. “If this disease is spreading because of our reluctance, we are not just harming ourselves but the entire community.”
From previously being blamed for the mistrust of polio vaccines, some religious leaders — who wield immense authority in Pakistan — are now at the forefront of the campaign to convince parents.
“All major religious schools and scholars in Pakistan have debunked the rumors surrounding the polio vaccine,” said Imam Tayyab Qureshi.
“Those who attack polio vaccination teams have no connection to Islam or humanity,” he said in the provincial capital of Peshawar, where Panam Dehri lies on the outskirts.
For one parent in Panam Dehri, the endorsement by religious chiefs proved pivotal.
“Initially I did not vaccinate my children against polio. Despite everyone’s efforts, I refused,” said 40-year-old Zulfiqar, who uses one name.
“Later, the Imam of our mosque came to explain the importance of the polio vaccine, telling me that he personally vaccinated his own children and encouraged me to do the same,” he said.
“After that, I agreed.”
Another impediment can be that parents in impoverished areas use the government’s eagerness to vaccine as a bargaining chip, attempting to negotiate investment in water and road projects.
“There are demand-based boycotts and community boycotts that we face,” lamented Ayesha Raza, spokeswoman for the government polio eradication campaign.
“Your demands may be very justified, but don’t link it to your children’s health,” she pleads to them.
For some health workers, the battle to eradicate polio is more personal.
Hobbling door-to-door in Panam Dehri, polio survivor Ismail Shah’s paralyzed leg does not slow his mission.
“I decided in my childhood that when I grew up I would fight against the disease that disabled me,” said the 35-year-old.
Shah is among 400,000 volunteers and health workers who spent the past week patiently explaining to families that the oral innoculation — administered in two doses — is safe.
Their goal is to protect 45 million children, but it’s far from straightforward. When Shah arrived in his patch of 40,000 inhabitants there were more than 1,000 refusals.
“Now, there are only 94 reluctant parents left, and soon I will persuade them as well,” he said.