SEOUL: President Donald Trump’s sudden pledge to discontinue US-South Korean “war games” has sent shockwaves through the South Korean military.
Many security experts have expressed concern that a halt to the annual military exercises could be seen as a major concession to North Korea and eventually lead to the withdrawal of, or a major reduction in, US forces in the South.
“You simply can’t have troops stationed anywhere and not train them,” said Bruce E. Bechtol Jr., associate professor of political science at Angelo State University, Texas.
“So what he (Trump) called ‘war games’ may be changed to something else like ‘field exercises’ or ‘table-top drills,’ but hopefully that doesn’t mean we’re going to stop training to maintain the readiness of the troops defending our friend South Korea.”
About 28,500 US troops are stationed in the South, holding large-scale exercises and computer simulation-based command post drills with South Korean forces every spring and autumn.
The exercises largely focus on enhancing their defense readiness against an attack, with an operational scenario of up to 690,000 US forces being deployed from outside the Korean Peninsula in wartime.
“We haven’t seen any details regarding North Korea’s nuclear disarmament pledge, even though the leaders of the US and North Korea took a symbolic step toward ending their 70 years of hostility during their summit in Singapore,” said Park Hwee-rak, professor of political science at Kookmin University in Seoul.
“Any move or change to weaken the decades-old joint defense posture is likely to bring great risk to the security of South Korea before the North’s complete disarmament,” he added.
“Security is very different from business or gambling. You may decide to invest all your money in a business or gamble for a huge win, but as far as security is concerned, you shouldn’t call an all-in bet. You must prepare for the worst-case scenario.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Thursday: “If North Korea truly carries out denuclearization measures, sincere dialogue continues and hostilities with the US and South Korea are resolved, there is a need for flexible change in military pressure and a careful review of US-South Korea joint training.”
He referred to “the spirit of mutual trust of the Panmunjom Declaration” of April 27, in which both Koreas promised to end hostile actions against each other.
US and South Korean defense authorities are in close consultation over the matter of stopping joint exercises, said the South’s Ministry of National Defense.
The US ambassador-designate to South Korea, Harry B. Harris Jr., backed Trump’s decision to freeze the drills “in good faith” on the peninsula.
“I believe we should give exercises, major exercises, a pause to see if (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un is in fact serious about his part of the negotiations,” Harris Jr. said at his Senate confirmation hearing on June 14.
“We were in a different place in 2017,” he added, referring to Pyongyang’s test-firing of ballistic missiles and its sixth nuclear test.
“Today, following the president’s summit with Kim Jong Un in Singapore, I think we’re in a dramatically different place.”
But worries over an eventual pull-out of US troops from the South are lingering, said Shin Won-shik, former deputy commander of South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff.
“It’s like pulling out the linchpins sustaining the security posture in Northeast Asia as well as on the peninsula,” the former three-star general added.
“What I’m most worried about is that a prolonged freeze of joint drills could lead to the pulling of troops out of Korea,” he said.
“It remains unclear how long the denuclearization negotiations will take and how fast it will be completed. If the negotiations are prolonged, talk of US troops pulling out will emerge inevitably.”
Trump said after the summit: “We will be stopping the war games, which will save us a tremendous amount of money.”
Kim Dae-young, an analyst at the Korea Research Institute of National Strategy in Seoul, said: “If cost-sharing negotiations for US troops between Washington and Seoul fail, Trump could have an excuse to push forward with large troop reductions. Then inevitably, the South Korean military would face a major shift in its defense policy, probably with much more burdens in terms of costs and capabilities.”
Seoul’s initiative to take back wartime operational control of its armed forces from the US military will pick up speed, the analyst added.
South Korean generals are in charge of peacetime command of their forces, while in wartime operational control is supposed to be handed over to the chief of the US-South Korea Combined Forces Command. The South aims to take back command authority by 2023.
“Even if inter-Korean relations have improved, strong national defense power is necessary to cope with various threats,” the analyst said, referring to potential territorial disputes with Japan and China.
“But questions still linger over how we could bolster our military power for self-reliant defense, reducing dependence on US forces and not eroding confidence on the alliance of the two militaries.”
Freezing of military drills with US raises South Korean concerns
Freezing of military drills with US raises South Korean concerns
- The exercises largely focus on enhancing their defense readiness against an attack, with an operational scenario of up to 690,000 US forces being deployed from outside the Korean Peninsula in wartime
- US and South Korean defense authorities are in close consultation over the matter of stopping joint exercises, said the South’s Ministry of National Defense
Explosion damages canal feeding Kosovo’s main power plants
- Faruk Mujka, the head of water company Ibar-Lepenci, told local news portal Kallxo that an explosive device was thrown into the canal and damaged the wall of a bridge
PRISTINA: An explosion on Friday evening damaged a canal in northern Kosovo supplying water to two coal-fired power plants that generate nearly all of the country’s electricity, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said, blaming what he called “a terrorist act” by neighboring Serbia.
There were no immediate reports of injuries and the cause of the blast, which also impacted drinking water supplies, was not clear. Serbian officials did not respond to requests for comment, and Reuters found no immediate evidence of Belgrade’s involvement.
“This is a criminal and terrorist attack with the aim to destroy our critical infrastructure,” Kurti said in a televised address. He said that some of the country could be without power if the problem is not fixed by morning.
In a sign of ethnic tensions between the two Balkan countries, Kurti echoed Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani by blaming Serbian criminal gangs without providing proof.
Earlier on Friday, Kosovo police announced increased security measures after two recent attacks where hand grenades were hurled at a police station and municipality building in northern Kosovo where ethnic Serbians live. It was not clear if the incidents were linked.
Local media showed pictures of part of the canal destroyed and leaking water and a heavy police presence at the site.
Faruk Mujka, the head of water company Ibar-Lepenci, told local news portal Kallxo that an explosive device was thrown into the canal and damaged the wall of a bridge.
He said the water supply, which also feeds drinking water to the capital Pristina, must be halted to fix the problem as soon as possible since it was the main channel for supplying Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK), the country’s main power provider.
Independence for ethnic Albanian-majority Kosovo came in 2008, almost a decade after a guerrilla uprising against Serbian rule. However tensions persist, mainly in the north where the Serb minority refuses to recognize Kosovo’s statehood and still sees Belgrade as their capital.
The EU’s Kosovo ambassador, Aivo Orav, condemned the attack that he said was already “depriving considerable parts of Kosovo from water supply.”
Senior Russian diplomat says possibility of new nuclear tests remains open question
- Moscow has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union
MOSCOW: A possible resumption of nuclear weapons tests by Moscow remains an open question in view of hostile US policies, a senior Russian diplomat was quoted as saying early on Saturday.
“This is a question at hand,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS news agency when asked whether Moscow was considering a resumption of tests.
“And without anticipating anything, let me simply say that the situation is quite difficult. It is constantly being considered in all its components and in all its aspects.”
In September, Ryabkov referred to President Vladimir Putin as having said that Russia would not conduct a test as long as the United States refrained from carrying one out.
Moscow has not conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990, the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But Putin this month lowered the threshold governing the country’s nuclear doctrine in response to what Moscow sees as escalation by Western countries backing Ukraine in the 33-month-old war pitting it against Russia.
Under the new terms, Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally Belarus that “created a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity.”
The changes were prompted by US permission to allow Ukraine to use Western missiles against targets inside Russia.
Russia’s testing site is located on the remote Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, where the Soviet Union conducted more than 200 nuclear tests.
Putin signed a law last year withdrawing Russia’s ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. He said the move sought to bring Russia into line with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty.
Ireland headed for coalition government following parliamentary election, exit poll suggests
DUBLIN: An exit poll in Ireland’s parliamentary election released late Friday suggests the three biggest parties have won roughly equal shares and the country is headed for another coalition government.
A poll released as voting ended at 10 p.m. (2200GMT) said center-right party Fine Gael was the first choice of 21 percent of voters, with its center-right coalition partner in the outgoing government, Fianna Fail at 19.5 percent. Left-of-center opposition Sinn Fein was at 21.1 percent in the poll.
Pollster Ipsos B&A asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had cast their ballots. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
The figures only give an indication and don’t reveal which parties will form the next government. Counting of ballots starts Saturday morning and because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation known as the single transferrable vote, it can take between several hours and several days for full results to be known.
The result will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and a cost-of-living pressures.
Sinn Fein, which had urged people to vote for change, hailed the result.
“There is every chance that Sinn Fein will emerge from these elections as the largest political party,” Sinn Fein director of elections Matt Carthy told broadcaster RTE.
Though Sinn Fein, which aims to reunite Northern Ireland with the independent Republic of Ireland, could become the largest party in the 174-seat Dail, the lower house of parliament, it may struggle to get enough coalition partners to form a government. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have refused to form alliances with it.
Here’s a look at the parties, the issues and the likely outcome.
Who’s running?
The outgoing government was led by the two parties who have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. They have similar center-right policies but are longtime rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war.
After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat they formed a coalition, agreeing to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach, or prime minister. Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin served as premier for the first half of the term and was replaced by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022. Varadkar unexpectedly stepped down in March, passing the job to current Taoiseach Simon Harris.
Opposition party Sinn Fein achieved a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, topping the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fail and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its leftist policies and historic ties with militant group the Irish Republican Army during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.
Under Ireland’s system of proportional representation, each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple lawmakers, with voters ranking their preferences. That makes it relatively easy for smaller parties and independent candidates with a strong local following to gain seats.
This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.
What are the main issues?
As in many other countries, the cost of living — especially housing — has dominated the campaign. Ireland has an acute housing shortage, the legacy of failing to build enough new homes during the country’s “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the economic slump that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.
“There was not building during the crisis, and when the crisis receded, offices and hotels were built first,” said John-Mark McCafferty, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Threshold.
The result is soaring house prices, rising rents and growing homelessness.
After a decade of economic growth, McCafferty said “Ireland has resources” — not least 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes the European Union has ordered Apple to pay it — “but it is trying to address big historic infrastructural deficits.”
Tangled up with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge to a country long defined by emigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. A stabbing attack on children outside a Dublin school a year ago, in which an Algerian man has been charged, sparked the worst rioting Ireland had seen in decades.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but far-right voices on social media seek to drum up hostility to migrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping for election in several districts. The issue appears to be hitting support for Sinn Fein, as working-class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.
What’s the likely outcome?
The exit poll bears out earlier opinion poll findings that voters’ support is split widely among Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, several smaller parties and an assortment of independents.
Before polling day, analysts said the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers. That remains a likely option.
“It’s just a question of which minor group is going to be the group that supports the government this time,” said Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. “Coalition-forming is about putting a hue on what is essentially the same middle-of-the-road government every time.”
France on the back foot in Africa after Chadian snub
- Chad abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France
- Experts say that without Chad, French army will struggle to run other Africa operations
NAIROBI/GENEVA: A French plan to significantly reduce its military presence in West and central Africa risks backfiring and further diminishing the former colonial power’s influence in the region at a time when Russia is gaining ground.
A French envoy to President Emmanuel Macron this week handed in a report with proposals on how France could reduce its military presence in Chad, Gabon and Ivory Coast, where it has deployed troops for decades.
Details of the report have not been made public but two sources said the plan is to cut the number of troops to 600 from around 2,200 now. The sources said Chad would keep the largest contingent with 300 French troops, down from 1,000. However, in a surprise move that caught French officials on the hop, the government of Chad — a key Western ally in the fight against Islamist militants in the region — on Thursday abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France. That could lead to French troops leaving the central African country altogether.
“For France it is the start of the end of their security engagement in central and Western Africa,” said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.
“Chad was the aircraft carrier of the French army, its logistical headquarters. If Chad doesn’t exist, the French army will have a huge problem to keep running its other operations.”
In a further blow to France, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told French state TV on Thursday it was inappropriate for French troops to maintain a presence in his country, where 350 French soldiers are currently based. France has already pulled its soldiers out from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, following military coups in those West African countries and spreading anti-French sentiment. Paris is also shifting more attention to Europe with the war in Ukraine and increasing budgetary constraints, diplomats said.
The review envisions the remaining French soldiers in the region focusing on training, intelligence exchange and responding to requests from countries for help, depending on their needs, the sources said. Chad’s move to end the cooperation deal had not been discussed with Paris and shocked the French, according to the two sources and other officials. France, which wants to keep a presence in Chad in part because of its work to help ease one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises unfolding now in neighboring Sudan, responded only 24 hours after Chad made its announcement.
“France takes note and intends to continue the dialogue to implement these orientations,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
One of the two sources, a French official with knowledge of Chadian affairs, said Chad’s government appeared to have seen the French decision to more than halve its military presence there as a snub. Chad also felt the French would no longer be in a position to guarantee the security of the military regime led by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, this source said.
Macron had backed Deby despite criticism since Deby seized power following the death of his father, who ruled Chad for 30 years until he was killed in 2021 during an incursion by rebels. Deby won an election held this year.
In its statement on Thursday evening, released hours after the French foreign minister had visited the Sudanese border in eastern Chad with his counterpart, Chad’s foreign ministry said N’djamena wanted to fully assert its sovereignty after more than six decades of independence from France. It said the decision should in no way undermine the friendly relations between the two countries. Earlier this year, a small contingent of US special forces left Chad amid a review of US cooperation with the country.
The French drawdown, coupled with a US pullback from Africa, contrasts with the increasing influence of Russia and other countries, including Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates, on the continent. Russian mercenaries are helping prop up the military governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and are also fighting alongside them against Islamist militants. However, French officials and other sources played down Russia’s ability to take advantage of the French setback in Chad, at least in the short term. The French source familiar with Chadian affairs noted that Russia and Chad back rival factions in Sudan’s war. Russia also has major military commitments in Syria and the war in Ukraine.
Ireland votes in closely fought general election
DUBLIN: Voting got under way in Ireland Friday in a general election with the two center-right coalition partners neck-and-neck with opposition party Sinn Fein, following a campaign marked by rancour over housing and cost-of-living crises.
Polls opened at 0700 GMT and will close at 2200 GMT as voters choose new members of the 174-seat lower chamber of parliament, the Dail.
Final opinion polling put the three main parties — center-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, and the leftist-nationalist Sinn Fein — each on around 20 percent.
Counting is not due to start until Saturday morning, with partial results expected throughout the day. A final result, however, may not be clear for days as EU member Ireland’s proportional representation system sees votes of eliminated candidates redistributed during multiple rounds of counting.
Prime Minister Simon Harris was among the first to vote, in his constituency of Delgany, south of Dublin. The Fine Gael leader, who became Ireland’s youngest-ever taoiseach (prime minister) when he took over in April, held a solid lead entering the campaign.
But the party lost ground, in particular after Harris was seen in a viral clip appearing rude and dismissive to a care worker on the campaign trail.
“I’ve enjoyed putting forward my policy vision as a new leader, as a new Taoiseach,” Harris, 38, told reporters after voting.
“Now I’m looking forward to the people having their say.”
Some in his constituency did not share his optimism. IT worker Kevin Barry, 41, said he was unsure about voting “as all the options seem so terrible.”
He cited the housing crisis, in which a shortage is driving up rents. While leaning toward the governing coalition, Barry told AFP: “I am not really happy with them as they are responsible for the mess that we are in, particularly with regard to housing.”
For Peta Scott, 54, a health care worker and mother of four, housing woes meant it was “a challenge” for her children to stay in Ireland.
At the last general election in 2020, Sinn Fein — the former political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army — won the popular vote but could not find willing coalition partners.
That led to weeks of horsetrading, ending up with Fine Gael, which has been in power since 2011, agreeing a deal with Fianna Fail, led by the experienced Micheal Martin, 64.
The role of prime minister rotated between the two party leaders. The smaller Green Party made up the governing coalition.
Harris has had to defend the government’s patchy record on tackling a worsening housing crisis and fend off accusations of profligate public spending.
A giveaway budget last month was also aimed at appeasing voters fretting about sky-high housing and childcare costs.
Both center-right parties stress their pro-business credentials and say returning them to power would ensure stability, particularly with turmoil abroad and the risk of external shocks.
Ireland’s economy depends on foreign direct investment and lavish corporate tax returns from mainly US tech and pharma giants.
But threats from incoming US president Donald Trump to slap tariffs on imports and repatriate corporate tax of US firms from countries such as Ireland have caused concern for economic stability.
Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Fein has seen a dip in support because of its progressive stance on social issues and migration policy, as immigration became a key election issue.
But it has rallied on the back of a campaign heavily focused on housing policy and claims it is the only alternative to the Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who have swapped power since Irish independence from Britain in 1921.
After voting in her central Dublin constituency, McDonald called Friday “a historic day where we can elect a new government for change.”
Asked if voting for Sinn Fein was a vote for a united Ireland, including British-ruled Northern Ireland, she replied: “Of course it is.”
“We are united Irelanders. We have an ambitious plan for a new Ireland.”
Retiree William McCarthy voted for the party but was unconvinced they would win.
