ANKARA: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday faces the biggest ballot box challenge of his 15-year grip on Turkey, seeking to overcome a revitalized opposition against the background of an increasingly troubled economy.
A self-styled heavyweight champion of campaigning, Erdogan has won successive elections since his Islamic-rooted ruling party came to power in 2002, transforming Turkey with growth-orientated economic policies, religious conservatism and an assertive stance abroad.
But he appears to have met some kind of match in his main presidential rival Muharrem Ince, a fiery orator from the left of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) who has been unafraid to challenge Erdogan on his own terms.
The intrigue is deepened by the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day under controversial constitutional changes spearheaded by Erdogan which will hand the new Turkish president enhanced powers and scrap the office of prime minister.
The vote takes place almost two years after the failed coup aimed at ousting Erdogan from power, a watershed in its modern history which prompted Turkey to launch the biggest purge of recent times under a state of emergency that remains in place.
Some 55,000 people have been arrested in a crackdown whose magnitude has sparked major tensions with Ankara’s Western allies.
Only a knockout first round victory for Erdogan and a strong parliamentary majority for his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be seen as an unequivocal victory for the Turkish leader.
And many analysts believe Ince can force a second round on July 8, while AKP risks losing its parliamentary majority in the face of an unprecedented alliance between four opposition parties.
“This is not the classical opposition that he has been facing for 15 years and which he more or less succeeded in managing and marginalizing,” said Elize Massicard of the French National Center for Scientific Research.
“It’s a new political dynamic that has grown in magnitude,” she said.
The opposition was already boosted by the relatively narrow victory of the “Yes” campaign in the April 2017 referendum on the constitutional changes.
Most opinion polls — to be treated with caution in Turkey — suggest Erdogan will fall short of 50 percent in the first round.
Erdogan remains by far Turkey’s most popular politician and inspires sometimes near-fanatical support in the Anatolian interior, where he is credited with transforming lives through greater economic prosperity.
“A great Turkey needs a strong leader,” says the slogan on election posters of Erdogan plastered across Turkey.
But the elections come at a time when Turkey is undergoing one of its rockiest recent economic patches despite high growth, with inflation surging to 12.15 percent and the lira losing 20 percent against the dollar this year.
Erdogan brought the elections forward from November 2019 in what many analysts saw as a bid to have them over with before the economy nosedived.
The opposition has sought to play on signs of Erdogan fatigue and also echoed Western concerns that freedom of expression has declined drastically under his rule.
For the first time, Erdogan has been forced to react in the election campaign as the opposition set the pace.
He had to deny quickly when Ince accused him of meeting the alleged architect of the 2016 failed coup, Fethullah Gulen. Erdogan promised to lift Turkey’s two-year state of emergency only after the CHP had vowed the same.
“The opposition is able to frame the debate in the election and this is a new thing for Turkish politics,” Asli Aydintasbas, fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) said.
“A party that has been in power for so long is, in an economic downturn, going to experience a loss (in support) and lose its hegemony over politics,” she added.
While the CHP sees itself as the guardian of a secular and united Turkey, Ince has also sought to win the support of Turkey’s Kurdish minority who make up around a fifth of the electorate.
A rally held by Ince in the Kurdish stronghold of Diyarbakir in the southeast attracted considerable attention. “A president for everyone,” reads his election slogan, over a picture of the affably smiling former physics teacher.
The opposition, which argues that Erdogan has been given a wildly disproportionate amount of media airtime in the campaign, has sometimes resorted to creative and even humorous campaign methods.
The Iyi (Good) Party of Meral Aksener, once seen as a major player but lately eclipsed by Ince, put out humorous messages on Google ads and even devised a computer game where light bulbs — the AKP symbol — get destroyed.
Selahattin Demirtas, the candidate of the pro-Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), has campaigned from his prison cell following his jailing in November 2016. He made an election speech on speaker phone through his wife’s mobile but was allowed give a brief election broadcast on state TV, albeit from prison.
Erdogan faces biggest challenge in tight Turkey polls
Erdogan faces biggest challenge in tight Turkey polls
Asma Assad ‘has 50/50 chance’ of surviving leukemia: Report
- Former Syrian first lady is being kept isolated in Moscow as doctors treat aggressive blood cancer
- The 49-year-old reportedly arrived in the Russian capital ahead of her ousted husband
LONDON: Asma Assad is suffering from leukemia and has been given a “50/50” chance of survival by doctors, the Daily Telegraph reported on Wednesday.
The British-born wife of ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose family sought asylum in Moscow this month, is being kept in isolation to prevent infection.
Her father Fawaz Akhras is in the Russian capital to care for her, and was described as “heartbroken” by sources in contact with the Assad family.
In May, the Syrian presidency announced that the then-first lady had been diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia.
It follows her previous battle with breast cancer, which she announced she was “completely” free from in 2019.
The 49-year-old is believed to have arrived in Moscow for treatment before the Kremlin convinced her husband to flee Syria earlier this month.
The news of her leukemia follows reports that she was unhappy in Moscow and seeking a divorce from her husband. The family have not commented on the reports and the Kremlin denied rumors of a divorce.
Turkish journalists briefed by Russian diplomats were believed to be the source of the reports, the Telegraph reported.
One source who has communicated with a family representative told the newspaper that “Asma is dying,” adding: “She can’t be in the same room with anyone (because of her condition).”
Akhras, a London-based cardiologist, has cared for his daughter for almost half a year, initially in the UAE and now in Moscow.
Syrians protest after video showing attack on Alawite shrine: monitor, witnesses
- State news agency SANA said police in central Homs imposed a curfew from 6:00 p.m. (1500 GMT) until 8:00 am on Thursday
- Syria’s new authorities said the video footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the incident
DAMASCUS: Angry protests broke out Wednesday in several areas of Syria after a video circulated showing an attack on an Alawite shrine in the country’s north, a war monitor and witnesses said.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said large demonstrations took place in the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, provinces that are the heartland of the Alawite minority which deposed ruler Bashar Assad hails from.
The Britain-based Observatory also reported protests in parts of the central city of Homs and other areas including Qardaha, Assad’s hometown.
Witnesses told AFP demonstrations broke out in Tartus, Latakia and nearby Jableh.
Images from Jableh showed large crowds in the streets, some chanting slogans including “Alawite, Sunni, we want peace.”
State news agency SANA said police in central Homs imposed a curfew from 6:00 p.m. (1500 GMT) until 8:00 am on Thursday, while local authorities in Jableh also announced a nighttime curfew.
The Observatory said the protests erupted after a video began circulating earlier Wednesday showing “an attack by fighters” on an important Alawite shrine in the Maysaloon district of Syria’s second city Aleppo.
It said five workers were killed, adding that the shrine was set ablaze.
Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said the exact date of the video was unknown.
He said it was filmed early this month, after militants led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham launched a lightning offensive and seized control of major cities including Aleppo on December 1, ousting Assad a week later.
AFP was unable to independently verify the footage or the date of the incident.
Syria’s new authorities said the video footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the incident.
The footage showing “the storming and attack” of the shrine in Aleppo is “old and dates to the time of the liberation” of the northern Syrian city earlier this month, an interior ministry statement said, adding that the attack was carried out by “unknown groups” and that “republishing” the video served to “stir up strife among the Syrian people at this sensitive stage.”
Hamas says ‘new’ Israeli conditions delaying agreement on Gaza ceasefire
- “Occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people,” Hamas said
JERUSALEM: Hamas accused Israel on Wednesday of imposing “new conditions” that it said were delaying a ceasefire agreement in the war in Gaza, though it acknowledged negotiations were still ongoing.
Israel has made no public statement about any new conditions in its efforts to secure the release of hostages seized on October 7, 2023.
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have taken place in Doha in recent days, rekindling hope for a truce deal that has proven elusive.
“The ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations are continuing in Doha under the mediation of Qatar and Egypt in a serious manner... but the occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people, which has delayed reaching an agreement,” the Palestinian militant group said in a statement.
Hamas did not elaborate on the conditions imposed by Israel.
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told parliament that there was “some progress” in the talks, and on Tuesday his office said Israeli representatives had returned from Qatar after “significant negotiations.”
Last week, Hamas and two other Palestinian militant groups — Islamic Jihad and the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — said in a rare joint statement that a ceasefire agreement was “closer than ever,” provided Israel did not impose new conditions.
Efforts to strike a truce and hostage release deal have repeatedly failed over key stumbling blocks.
Despite numerous rounds of indirect talks, Israel and Hamas have agreed just one truce, which lasted for a week at the end of 2023.
Negotiations have faced multiple challenges since then, with the primary point of disagreement being the establishment of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Another unresolved issue is the governance of post-war Gaza.
It remains a highly contentious issue, including within the Palestinian leadership.
Israel has said repeatedly that it will not allow Hamas to run the territory ever again.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, Netanyahu said: “I’m not going to agree to end the war before we remove Hamas.”
He added Israel is “not going to leave them in power in Gaza, 30 miles from Tel Aviv. It’s not going to happen.”
Netanyahu has also repeatedly stated that he does not want to withdraw Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land cleared and controlled by Israel along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
The war in Gaza was sparked by Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel, during which militants seized 251 hostages.
Ninety-six of them are still being held in Gaza, including 34 the army says are dead.
The attack resulted in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 45,361 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
Syria authorities say torched 1 million captagon pills
- Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war
- Stimulant has flooded the black market across the region in recent years
DAMASCUS: Syria’s new authorities torched a large stockpile of drugs on Wednesday, two security officials told AFP, including one million pills of captagon, whose industrial-scale production flourished under ousted president Bashar Assad.
Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war, effectively turning it into a narco state under Assad.
“We found a large quantity of captagon, around one million pills,” said a balaclava-wearing member of the security forces, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Osama, and whose khaki uniform bore a “public security” patch.
An AFP journalist saw forces pour fuel over and set fire to a cache of cannabis, the painkiller tramadol, and around 50 bags of pink and yellow captagon pills in a security compound formerly belonging to Assad’s forces in the capital’s Kafr Sousa district.
Captagon has flooded the black market across the region in recent years.
“The security forces of the new government discovered a drug warehouse as they were inspecting the security quarter,” said another member of the security forces, who identified himself as Hamza.
Authorities destroyed the stocks of alcohol, cannabis, captagon and hashish in order to “protect Syrian society” and “cut off smuggling routes used by Assad family businesses,” he added.
Syria’s new rulers have yet to spell out their policy on alcohol, which has long been widely available in the country.
Since a militant alliance toppled Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, Syria’s new authorities have said massive quantities of captagon have been found in former government sites around the country, including security branches.
AFP journalists in Syria have seen fighters from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) set fire to what they said were stashes of captagon found at facilities once operated by Assad’s forces.
Security force member Hamza confirmed Wednesday that “this is not the first initiative of its kind — the security services, in a number of locations, have found other warehouses... and drug manufacturing sites and destroyed them in the appropriate manner.”
Maher Assad, a military commander and the brother of Bashar Assad, is widely accused of being the power behind the lucrative captagon trade.
Experts believe Syria’s former leader used the threat of drug-fueled unrest to put pressure on Arab governments.
Jordan in recent years has cracked down on the smuggling of weapons and drugs including captagon along its 375-kilometer (230-mile) border with Syria.
UK to host Israel-Palestine peace summit
- PM Starmer drawing on experience working on Northern Ireland peace process
- G7 fund to unlock financing for reconciliation projects
LONDON: The UK will host an international summit early next year aimed at bringing long-term peace to Israel and Palestine, The Independent reported.
The event will launch the International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace, which is backed by the Alliance for Middle East Peace, containing more than 160 organizations engaged in peacebuilding between Israelis and Palestinians.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who worked on the Northern Ireland peace process, ordered Foreign Secretary David Lammy to begin work on hosting the summit.
The fund being unlocked alongside the summit pools money from G7 countries to build “an environment conducive to peacemaking.” The US opened the fund with a $250 million donation in 2020.
As part of peacebuilding efforts, the fund supports projects “to help build the foundation for peaceful co-existence between Israelis and Palestinians and for a sustainable two-state solution.”
It also supports reconciliation between Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel, as well as the development of the Palestinian private sector in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Young Israelis and Palestinians will meet and work together during internships in G7 countries as part of the scheme.
Former Labour Shadow Middle East Minister Wayne David and ex-Conservative Middle East Minister Alistair Burt said the fund is vital in bringing an end to the conflict.
In a joint piece for The Independent, they said: “The prime minister’s pledge reflects growing global momentum to support peacebuilding efforts from the ground up, ensuring that the voices of those who have long worked for equality, security and dignity for all are not only heard, but are actively shaping the societal and political conditions that real conflict resolution will require.
“Starmer’s announcement that the foreign secretary will host an inaugural meeting in London to support peacebuilders is a vital first step … This meeting will help to solidify the UK’s role as a leader in shaping the future of the region.”
The fund is modeled on the International Fund for Ireland, which spurred peacebuilding efforts in the lead-up to the 1999 Good Friday Agreement. Starmer is drawing inspiration from his work in Northern Ireland to shape the scheme.
He served as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board from 2003-2007, monitoring the service’s compliance with human rights law introduced through the Good Friday Agreement.
David and Burt said the UK is “a natural convener” for the new scheme, adding: “That role is needed now more than ever.”
They said: “The British government is in a good position to do this for three reasons: Firstly, the very public reaching out to diplomatic partners, and joint ministerial visits, emphasises the government turning a page on its key relationships.
“Secondly, Britain retains a significant influence in the Middle East, often bridging across those who may have differences with each other. And, thirdly, there is the experience of Northern Ireland.
“Because of his personal and professional engagement with Northern Ireland, Keir Starmer is fully aware of the important role civil society has played in helping to lay the foundations for peace.”
