LAHORE: Pakistan’s major political parties including Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), are focusing on winning maximum seats in Punjab.
It is commonly held that any political force emerging strong in Punjab has a better shot at forming government in the Center.
Punjab has the highest number of general seats in the National Assembly allocated to different provinces, 141 out of 272, even after losing seven seats in the recent population census.
Moreover, the three seats of Capital Territory of Islamabad are traditionally counted in Punjab as the party with a majority in Punjab usually secures these seats.
“Governing Punjab means ruling two thirds of Pakistan,” political analyst Salim Bokhari told Arab News.
“Since 1970 it has been Punjab that produced rulers — Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto and the Sharifs. They all were able to form governments in the Center when they won a majority in Punjab,” he added.
While the PPP has lost its way in Punjab in recent years, the party’s efforts to restructure before the polls still lacks luster. Analysts forecast that while the PPP is not in a strong position to win a majority of the votes in Punjab, the party would aim for at least 15 to 20 seats.
“The party is trying to win 20 National Assembly seats to get good share in the Center,” political analyst Chaudhry Khadim Hussain told Arab News.
The PPP is relying on its veterans from Punjab to “reduce the influence of PML-N,” said Hussain.
The outgoing ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has the incumbency factor to give it an edge in Punjab.
The party leadership has been damaged by the Panama Papers court case. Many of its candidates and senior leaders have also been disqualified by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) over misdeclaring assets. Former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi – a veteran PML-N leader – faced a similar battle but challenged his disqualification in the court after which a decision was awarded in his favor.
The political landscape of the province of Punjab can be divided into three parts: Upper Punjab (Potohar), Central Punjab and the South Punjab.
The Potohar area of Rawalpindi Division is a mainly urban area that always has a PML-N majority.
South Punjab has two administrative divisions — Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan – and has had a split mandate in the past, but in the last two elections, the South Punjab constituencies favored PML-N.
PML-N faced defection of many of its candidates in South Punjab, which the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf cashed in on.
PTI has pitched 285 candidates for the 297 total seats in Punjab, the highest for any political party, with PML-N fielding 238 candidates for the general seats.
The Central Punjab is the biggest part of Punjab with five divisions: Faisalabad, Lahore, Sargodha, Gujrat Gujranwala and Sahiwal, and 82 seats. In these areas, the PML-N has always won most seats in the past.
However, with the emergence of Tehrik Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) – a Barelvi religious-politico group pitching its candidates in Punjab – and groups such as Milli Muslim League (MML) and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) fielding candidates in the province, the PML-N is bound to lose a fair chunk of rightwing voters.
“The PML-N had 307 members in the house of 371 in the last tenure of Punjab Assembly. The forces opposing the PML-N are concentrating on the center and efforts are being made to defeat the party on national assembly seats,” said political analyst Salman Ghani.
“The PML-N considers if it won one third seats fewer than in the last elections, it will still be in position to form government in Punjab,” he added.
PTI, on the other hand, has adopted a three-pronged strategy to win the maximum number of seats in Punjab: vow the electables, target Shabaz Sharif’s development projects, and highlight Nawaz Sharif’s alleged corruption in the Panama Papers affair.
“The PTI believes it cannot not form government in the center until it gets majority in Punjab,” said Salman.
“They are reaching to the masses to highlight the [alleged] corruption of Sharif brothers. To PTI, winning in Punjab means ruling the country, and for that the party is going all out to give PML-N a tough competition,” he said.
