US, China fire first shots in ‘largest trade war in economic history’

Investors are watching nervously as simmering trade tensions between the world's top two economies are set to erupt into a full-blown trade war. (AFP)
Updated 07 July 2018
Follow

US, China fire first shots in ‘largest trade war in economic history’

  • Tit-for-tat tarrifs launched
  • Beijing says it will take qualitative and quantitative measures

WASHINGTON: The US and China on Friday launched tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s imports, the opening shots in what Beijing called “the largest trade war in economic history” between the world’s top two economies.

At the stroke of midnight Washington time, the US pulled the trigger on 25-percent duties on about $34 billion in Chinese machinery, electronics and high-tech equipment, including autos, computer hard drives and LEDs.

The foreign ministry in Beijing said retaliatory measures “took effect immediately” with state news agency Xinhua confirming they were also 25-percent tariffs on an equal amount of goods.

Economists have warned escalating trade frictions could throttle global growth and strike at the heart of the world trading system, causing shockwaves across the planet.
Friday’s tariffs could just be the opening skirmishes in the trade war, as US President Donald Trump has vowed to hit as much as $450 billion in Chinese goods, the vast majority of imports.

Months of dialogue between the two economic superpowers appeared to have failed, with Trump warning just hours before the tariffs came into effect that Washington was ready to impose duties on hundreds of billions of dollars more in Chinese imports.

Trump has for years slammed what he describes as Beijing’s underhand economic treatment of Washington, with the US trade deficit in goods with China ballooning to a record $375.2 billion last year.

US officials accuse China of building its emerging industrial dominance by stealing the “crown jewels” of American technological know-how through cyber-theft, forced transfers of intellectual property and state-sponsored corporate acquisitions.

And despite dire warnings about the impact on the US, Trump believes the robust American economy can outlast its rivals in the current battle.

But China also believes that its economy, with a greater focus on domestic demand and a reduced dependence on exports, can ride out the storm.
A member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, Ma Jun, said Friday that the first punches will have a “limited impact” on the Chinese economy.

“The $50-billion trade war will slow down China’s GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points,” Ma told Xinhua, China’s official news agency.

With only $130 billion in US imports to retaliate against, Beijing has said it will take “qualitative” and “quantitative” measures against the US, triggering fears it could cripple the operations of US multinationals in China.

“A trade war is the last thing we want to see, because we said many times that no one will benefit from a trade war,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang.
Chinese stocks actually rose after the announcement, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index up nearly one percent and the Shenzhen index climbing more than one percent.

Stocks fell back slightly from that point, with Shanghai closing up half a percentage point.

Li Daxiao, analyst at Yingda Securities, said news of the tariffs was already priced into the market, “therefore investors are not in as much of a panic as before.”

On the streets of Beijing, there were some concerns that prices would rise due to the tariffs but also a determination to support the Beijing authorities in the trade war.
“I will try my best to support domestic products. I think products made in China are the best,” said one shopper in a Beijing grocery story, who gave his name as Yang.

Beijing has accused the US of “firing on the whole world” with the measures, pointing out that most of the Chinese exports under attack are largely made by companies with foreign investment — including from America.

Under the banner of his “America First” policy, Trump has also targeted other traditional trade partners of the US, such as the EU, Japan, Mexico and even Canada.

And signs are growing that the escalating global trade dispute is already affecting the world’s top economy, with punitive duties now in place for steel and aluminum and the White House threatening to levy duties on auto imports.

As the tariffs approached, the US central bank warned the impending trade battle was beginning to darken the otherwise blue skies of the robust American economy, now in its 10th year of recovery.

Businesses around the US told the central bank that spending plans had been scaled back or postponed and they also warned of further adverse effects from the trade conflict, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

The start of the trade war also likely confirms the widening rupture between Trump and his own Republican Party, a traditional champion of free trade and big business.


Saudi Aramco eyes oil refinery project in Bangladesh, ambassador reveals

Updated 6 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Aramco eyes oil refinery project in Bangladesh, ambassador reveals

RIYADH: Saudi energy giant Aramco plans to build an oil refinery in Bangladesh, potentially transforming the sector in the Bay of Bengal, revealed the Kingdom’s Ambassador Essa Al-Duhailan.

During the launch of the report “Enhancing Saudi-Bangladesh Economic Engagement: Trends, Key Challenges and Long-Term Growth Prospects” at the Foreign Ministry in Dhaka, the ambassador emphasized Aramco’s potential investment.

Saudi Arabia, home to the largest Bangladeshi expatriate community, has increasingly engaged with Bangladesh through investment agreements and establishing a joint business council, signaling a deepening economic partnership. 

The proposed refinery aims to address Bangladesh’s growing demand for petroleum products while positioning itself as a regional supplier to markets like China and India. 

“We are talking about Aramco, the biggest oil company in the world. They are willing to come to Bangladesh to build a refinery here,” said Al-Duhailan, according to state-run news agency Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha.

The ambassador highlighted the transformative potential of establishing a maritime route between Chattogram and Jeddah or Dammam, enhancing trade efficiency and connectivity, BSS reported.

“Our international company, Red Sea Gateway Terminal, is already operating the Patenga terminal and is keen to contribute to the Matarbari deep-sea port,” he added.

Reflecting on past challenges, Al-Duhailan mentioned Aramco’s previous high-profile delegations to Bangladesh from 2016-2018, which did not yield engagement. “But we will not talk about the past. We will talk about the future,” the ambassador said, calling for renewed focus on bilateral cooperation.

The event also spotlighted the broader Saudi-Bangladesh relationship. Al-Duhailan highlighted that ACWA Power, the world’s largest renewable energy company, is exploring a $3.5 billion investment in Bangladesh. He added that the South Asian country is a green field for investment while advocating for reforms to streamline bureaucratic processes and combat corruption.

The report detailed pathways to deepen economic ties and outlined opportunities for Bangladesh to boost exports to the Kingdom, expand imports of vital resources, and attract investment in key sectors.
Challenges such as bureaucratic inefficiencies and corruption were also addressed, with strategic recommendations for overcoming these barriers.

The ambassador emphasized the importance of combining political and economic engagement for mutual benefit. “We have unique relations… we have many success stories,” he said, urging both nations to create more collaborative achievements in trade, culture, tourism, and beyond.

The analysis, prepared by the Foreign Ministry, serves as a roadmap for enhancing bilateral economic engagement, offering valuable insights for policymakers and investors from both nations. It sets the stage for a strengthened partnership poised to unlock new growth opportunities, BSS reported.

In March, Bangladesh secured a $1.4 billion financing deal with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corp., enabling it to strengthen crude oil imports from suppliers like Saudi Aramco. 

The funding bolstered the South Asian nation’s energy security and alleviated pressure on its dollar reserves, underscoring Aramco’s pivotal role in Bangladesh’s energy landscape.

Bangladesh’s government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has emphasized strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia as a key priority. Following his first meeting with Al-Duhailan in August, Yunus underscored the Kingdom’s role as a vital partner in addressing Bangladesh’s economic challenges.


Saudi Arabia, BlackRock explore collaborative opportunities to advance Vision 2030 goals

Updated 24 min 20 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Arabia, BlackRock explore collaborative opportunities to advance Vision 2030 goals

RIYADH: A meeting between Saudi Arabia’s economy minister and the vice chairman of BlackRock focused on global economic developments, investment opportunities, and the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification efforts.

During the talks in Riyadh on Jan. 5, Faisal Al-Ibrahim and Philipp Hildebrand discussed identifying potential collaborations to advance Saudi Arabia’s goals of reducing its dependence on oil revenues and fostering growth in key sectors such as renewable energy, technology, and tourism, according to a post on X.

 

In an interview with Arab News last year, BlackRock’s Managing Director, Head of Middle East Client Business, and CEO of Saudi Arabia, Yazeed Al-Mubarak, said that the global client base has shown a growing interest in gaining exposure to Middle Eastern assets.  

In August, BlackRock deepened its engagement with the Kingdom by signing a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund. 

The agreement, signed during an official visit to the US by Saudi Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majid Al-Hogail, will develop the country’s real estate finance sector and increase the share of businesses in the industry’s capital markets.


Oil Updates — prices ease from near 3-month highs amid strong dollar ahead of economic data

Updated 06 January 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — prices ease from near 3-month highs amid strong dollar ahead of economic data

  • Brent crude futures slid 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.3 a barrel
  • Dollar stayed close to a two-year peak on Monday

SINGAPORE: Oil prices slid on Monday amid a strong US dollar, concerns over sanctions and ahead of key economic data by the US Federal Reserve and US payrolls later in the week.
Brent crude futures slid 21 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $76.3 a barrel by 7:45 a.m. Saudi time after settling on Friday at its highest since Oct. 14.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $73.77 a barrel after closing on Friday at its highest since Oct. 11.
Oil posted five-session gains previously with hopes of rising demand following colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and more fiscal stimulus by China to revitalize its faltering economy.
However, the strength of the dollar is on investor’s radar, Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, wrote in a report on Monday.
The dollar stayed close to a two-year peak on Monday, a stronger dollar makes it more expensive to buy the greenback-priced commodity and hence reins in pressure on oil.
Investors are also awaiting economic news for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook and energy consumption.
Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting is due Wednesday and the December payrolls report will come on Friday.
Also weighing on sentiment was supply disruptions of Iranian and Russian oil as Western countries ramped up their sanctions.
The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, taking aim at its oil revenues with action against tankers carrying Russian crude, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Sunday.
Goldman Sachs expects Iran’s production and exports to fall by the second quarter as a result of expected policy changes and tighter sanctions from the administration of incoming US President Donald Trump.
Output at the OPEC producer could drop by 300,000 barrels per day to 3.25 million bpd by second quarter, they said.
The US oil rig count, an indicator of future output, fell by one to 482 last week, a weekly report from energy services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.
Still, the global oil market is clouded by a supply surplus this year as a rise in non-OPEC supplies is projected by analysts to largely offset global demand increase, also with the possibility of more production in the US under Trump.


UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

Updated 06 January 2025
Follow

UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

RIYADH: Non-oil business activity in the UAE surged in December, with the Emirates’ Purchasing Managers’ Index jumping to a nine-month high of 55.4, up from 54.2 in November, an economy tracker showed. 

According to S&P Global, the robust expansion was driven by strong demand conditions, underscoring continued growth in the non-oil private sector. 

The performance aligns with the UAE’s broader diversification strategy under its Vision 2031, which focuses on expanding the non-oil sector and promoting industries such as manufacturing, tourism, and technology to ensure sustainable economic growth. 

“The UAE saw its best expansion in non-oil business conditions for nine months in December, with the latest PMI data closing out another year of continuous growth and putting the sector in a strong position for 2025,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Any PMI readings above 50 indicate growth in the non-oil sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction, S&P Global noted. 

Non-oil business owners surveyed said buoyant market conditions helped them secure new clients and larger order books. However, staffing levels rose at one of the slowest rates in more than two-and-a-half years.

“Capacity levels remain under considerable stress, however, illustrated by another marked increase in backlogs of work. Recruitment appears to be the limiting factor — the pace of employment growth was barely changed from November’s 31-month low,” said Owen. 

He added that rising costs and margin pressures discouraged firms from ramping up staffing levels despite growing workloads. 

Input costs increased during December, although inflation eased to its softest pace since March. Meanwhile, optimism among non-oil firms about future growth ticked down for the second consecutive month. 

Dubai’s PMI also reached a nine-month high of 55.5 in December, up from 53.9 in the previous month. 

The emirate saw faster expansions in output and new orders, reflecting stronger client demand and busy market conditions. 

“In both cases, rates of growth were stronger than those observed at the UAE level,” said S&P Global. 

However, the report highlighted weaker optimism among non-oil business firms in Dubai regarding the coming year, with confidence falling to its lowest level since May 2021. Only 6 percent of surveyed companies anticipated output growth in 2025. 

The UAE’s performance highlights the success of economic diversification strategies across Gulf Cooperation Council nations, which continue to reduce reliance on oil revenues. 

The region’s positive trend extended to Saudi Arabia, where the December PMI hit 58.4, driven by a sharp increase in new orders. The Kingdom’s PMI has remained above the neutral 50 mark since September 2020, underlining sustained expansion in the non-oil private sector. 

Egypt’s PMI falls below 50 

In contrast, Egypt’s PMI dropped to 48.1 in December from 49.2 in November, signaling a sharper contraction in private sector activity. Subdued client demand led to the steepest decline in output in eight months, particularly in the construction, wholesale, and retail sectors. 

The analysis noted that activity in the services sector remained relatively stable, benefiting from a steadier level of new business compared to other monitored sectors. 

“The latest Egypt PMI data showed that the non-oil private sector’s anticipated recovery is unlikely to be without its setbacks in 2025. With the Egyptian pound deteriorating against the US dollar, breaching the 50-per-dollar mark in early December, businesses reported higher prices and a slump in demand, leading to the fastest decline in operating conditions since last April,” said Owen. 

He added: “The downturn meant that firms were less keen to raise their own charges in the face of accelerating cost burdens, instead tightening their margins in a bid to salvage orders.” 

Egyptian businesses expressed improved optimism toward the end of 2024, anticipating better domestic and geopolitical conditions in 2025. However, inflationary concerns remained a significant headwind for many firms. 


Kingdom approves 2025 annual borrowing plan with $37bn funding target

Updated 06 January 2025
Follow

Kingdom approves 2025 annual borrowing plan with $37bn funding target

  • Strategic road map to manage country’s funding needs

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan on Sunday approved the annual borrowing plan for 2025, outlining a strategic road map for managing the Kingdom’s funding needs.

The plan, which has been endorsed by the National Debt Management Center’s board of directors, detailed developments in public debt in 2024, initiatives to strengthen local debt markets, and the 2025 funding framework, including a calendar for Saudi riyal-denominated sukuk issuances.

 

 

The projected funding requirement for 2025 is estimated at SR139 billion ($37 billion), according to a statement issued on Sunday.

The total encompasses two primary components: covering a fiscal deficit of SR101 billion, as highlighted in the Ministry of Finance’s official budget statement, and meeting the SR38 billion in principal repayments for debts maturing during the year.

 

 

To achieve its funding objectives, Saudi Arabia plans to enhance its access to both local and international financing channels and pursue innovative financing opportunities to stimulate economic growth, the statement added.

Moves will include private transactions such as export credit agency-backed initiatives, financing for infrastructure development, and capital expenditure projects.

The Kingdom will also explore opportunities to access new markets and issue debt in diverse currencies, depending on market conditions.