BEIJING: China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June as its overall exports grew at a solid pace, a result that could further inflame a bitter trade dispute with Washington.
But signs exporters were rushing shipments before tariffs went into effect in the first week of July suggest the spike in the surplus was a one-off, with analysts expecting a less favorable trade balance for China in coming months as duties on exports start to bite.
The data came after the administration of US President Donald Trump raised the stakes in its trade row with China on Tuesday, saying it would slap 10 percent tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including numerous consumer items.
China’s trade surplus with the United States, which is at the center of the tariff tussle, widened to a record monthly high of $28.97 billion, up from $24.58 billion in May, according to Reuters calculations based on official data going back to 2008.
The record surplus “won’t help already sour relations and escalating tensions,” Jonas Short, head of the Beijing office at Everbright Sun Hung Kai, wrote in a note.
Trump, who has demanded Beijing cut the trade surplus, could use the latest result to further ratchet up pressure on China after both sides last week imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods. Washington has warned it may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods — nearly the total amount of US imports from China last year.
The dispute has jolted global financial markets, raising worries a full-scale trade war could derail the world economy. Chinese stocks fell into bear market territory and the yuan currency has skidded, though there have been signs in recent days its central bank is moving to slow the currency’s declines.
China’s June exports rose 11.3 percent from a year earlier, China General Administration of Customs reported, beating forecasts for a 10 percent increase according to the latest Reuters poll of 39 analysts, and down from a 12.6 percent gain in May.
China’s commerce ministry confirmed last month that Chinese exporters were front-loading exports to the US to get ahead of expected tariffs — a situation that could exacerbate any slowdown in shipments toward the year-end.
“Looking ahead, export growth will cool in the coming months as US tariffs start to bite alongside a broader softening in global demand,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore wrote in a note, though he noted a weaker yuan should help offset some of the decline.
China’s exports to the United States rose 13.6 percent in the first half of 2018 from a year earlier, while its imports from the US rose 11.8 percent in the same period.
Separate data suggested some Chinese retailers moved up orders to the US to insulate themselves from the intensifying trade war that threatens to send up costs on a growing number of consumer products.
For January-June China’s trade surplus with the United States rose to $133.76 billion, compared with about $117.51 billion in the same period last year.
After a strong start to the year, growth in China’s exports has moderated recently, and is expected to face more pressure from the initial round of US tariffs. Both official and private business surveys reported softer export orders last month.
China’s foreign trade faces risks of slowing in the second half of the year, General Administration of Customs spokesman Huang Songping told a news conference — a view backed by analysts and likely to put more strain on an economy already feeling the pinch from a multi-year debt battle that has driven up corporate borrowing costs.
Investors fear a prolonged trade battle with the United States could harm business confidence and investment, disrupting global supply chains and harming growth in China and the rest of the world.
South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, warned on Thursday that components and materials used in home appliances, computers and communications devices could be caught in the crossfire of the trade war.
Imports grew 14.1 percent in June, customs said, missing analysts’ forecast of a 20.8 percent growth, and compared with a 26 percent rise in May.
The commerce ministry also said this week it will use funds collected from tariffs charged on imports from the US to help ease the impact of US trade actions on Chinese companies and their employees.
In a sign Beijing is seeking alternative supplies of the commodities as it hit US imports with extra tariffs, China had dropped import tariffs on a range of animal feed ingredients from several Asian countries.
Separate customs data on Friday showed imports of commodities from soybeans to crude oil eased compared with a year ago, but China’s steel mills and aluminum smelters sold much more abroad spurred by higher international prices amid growing concerns about slowing demand growth.
The data could renew longstanding criticism from the United States and Europe that the world’s top metal producer is selling its surplus product abroad, hurting foreign rivals.
“We expect slowing export growth to put downward pressure on the current account and RMB (yuan), and believe China is likely to be willing to make concessions in future rounds of trade negotiations with the US,” Nomura analysts said in a note to clients.
China’s trade surplus with US hits record as exporters rush to beat tariffs
China’s trade surplus with US hits record as exporters rush to beat tariffs
- Analysts expect less favorable trade balance for China in coming months as duties on exports start to bite
- Washington has warned it may ultimately impose tariffs on more than $500 billion worth of Chinese goods
Saudi Arabia’s fintech demand offers growth prospects for UK firms: London Lord Mayor
RIYADH: UK-based fintech firms have an opportunity to address rising demand for fintech services in Saudi Arabia, according to the Lord Mayor of London.
Speaking on the sidelines of the 28th World Investment Conference in Riyadh, Alderman Alastair King highlighted the UK capital’s extensive expertise in fintech, particularly as the city works on digitizing national debt instruments.
He noted that such initiatives could provide opportunities for collaboration between the UK and Saudi Arabia’s growing fintech sector.
“We have incredible expertise in London in relation to fintech and financial technologies in general. I know there’s a great demand for that sector here in Saudi, so those are some of the areas we are concentrating on,” said the Lord Mayor.
“In the United Kingdom, we’ve just started to digitize our national gilts, what they call the debt instruments. Now, there’s a road ahead to digitize them, which is a wonderful opportunity to work on those types of things,” he said.
A gilt is a UK government bond issued in sterling, and London’s efforts to digitize these instruments could pave the way for similar initiatives in Saudi Arabia, added.
King went to say that the payments sector could also be explored, noting that the entire sector is being transformed by fintech and that there are enormous opportunities for collaboration.
Other sectors that could be devoloped include infrastructure, insurance, and legal services, as well as asset management, and banking.
“London is the number one global center for professional services in the world. Saudi Arabia is the fastest growing economy in the G20. There’s going to be a fantastic symbiosis between us, and we can do all sorts of things together,” the Lord Mayor said during the interview.
King also discussed the broader opportunities arising from Saudi Arabia’s energy transition and economic diversification, particularly in industries such as asset management, banking, and insurance. He emphasized the role of both large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises in fostering innovation.
“In London, as an extraordinary financial and professional services ecosystem, there is a symbiosis between small and medium-sized companies and the large ones. Part of my job is to go around to the British companies, whether small, medium, or large, and encourage them to take advantage of the international markets that are going to be available to us,” the Lord Mayor said.
“So, although the early adopters are the large companies, I think you often see real innovation coming out of the small and medium-sized companies,” he added.
The Lord Mayor added that he would consider it a success if more British firms expanded into Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council markets, particularly in professional services.
“I’d also view success as greater investment flows into financial and professional services in the UK,” he concluded.
Investment trends
During a panel discussion at the World Investment Conference, Nan Li Collins, senior director of investment and enterprise at the UN Conference on Trade and Development, discussed global investment trends, emphasizing the importance of effective regional policies and multilateral efforts to counteract fragmentation and protectionism.
“I think these are the efforts we need to promote globally for more multilateral reasons, for more regional integration, to lower trade and investment barriers, and then work with countries’ investment promotion agencies to look at how to strengthen investment facilitation,” she added.
During the discussion, Collins highlighted three key trends shaping the market.
“The first is the long-term trend of trade and investment,” she said, adding that while GDP and trade have grown steadily since the 2008 financial crisis, FDI has stagnated.
She identified global fracturing as the second trend, noting that investment is increasing in geopolitically aligned countries but declining in more distant ones.
The third trend is digitization, Collins said, adding that over the last decade, investment in digital services has risen from 60 percent to 80 percent, now accounting for the majority of new global FDI.
Saudi Tadawul Group rolls out 2nd phase of post-trade enhancements
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s capital markets are on track for substantial growth following the successful rollout of the second phase of the post-trade transformation enhancements by the Saudi Tadawul Group.
This latest phase, which includes upgrades across key subsidiaries — the Saudi Exchange, the Securities Clearing Center (Muqassa), and the Securities Depository Center (Edaa)—marks a significant milestone in the ongoing efforts to expand investment opportunities and bring the market in line with international standards.
Building on the first phase completed in 2022, these enhancements represent the largest transformation of the Saudi capital market to date. The upgrades are designed to broaden access to a wide range of financial instruments, improve market efficiency, and reduce systemic risks.
This initiative is part of the Tadawul Group’s contribution to the Financial Sector Development Program, a core element of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to position the kingdom as a leading global investment hub.
Wael Al-Hazzani, program director of the post-trade transformation and CEO of Muqassa, described the second-phase rollout as a “pivotal moment” for the Saudi capital market. He highlighted the role of these enhancements in diversifying investment options, expanding opportunities, and creating a more efficient, transparent, and secure post-trade infrastructure.
“This initiative reinforces our commitment to strengthening the Saudi capital market’s infrastructure, ultimately positioning it as a leading global financial hub,” Al-Hazzani said.
The first phase of the post-trade infrastructure enhancements, completed in 2022, brought significant improvements to the market, including updates to business models and the transformation of post-trade technologies. These upgrades enhanced clearing, settlement, and custody services, laying the groundwork for the more advanced changes seen in phase two.
Among the key innovations in phase two are important upgrades to the Saudi Exchange, including enhancements to the derivatives market and market-making processes.
Market makers and high-frequency traders now benefit from unified trading functionalities across both cash and derivatives markets, improving liquidity and overall market efficiency. These updates also bring the Saudi Exchange in line with global best practices by improving transparency and harmonizing market microstructure elements, further solidifying its competitive position on the global stage.
Other improvements at the Saudi Exchange include an automated order flagging mechanism to cancel orders during trading engine disconnections, a new reporting service to enhance trade monitoring, and synchronized bid/ask quotes for market makers to optimize their quoting activity. Additionally, exchange members can now execute and accept bilateral trades directly through their order management systems.
Muqassa has introduced enhancements aligned with global Central Counterparty best practices. These updates include real-time trade reconciliation, improved reconciliation processes, and updates to trading limits for derivatives and covered call margining. These changes strengthen pre-trade risk management and operational efficiency. Furthermore, Muqassa’s transition to a multi-asset clearing engine places it among a select group of CCPs worldwide, capable of managing clearing activities across multiple asset classes on a single platform. These upgrades are expected to reduce costs, increase transparency, and enhance overall efficiency for market participants.
Edaa has made significant improvements to its post-trade infrastructure, particularly in messaging protocols and reporting processes. These upgrades, in line with international standards, aim to improve market efficiency, governance, and stability. The changes enhance the experience for capital market institutions, custodians, settlement agents, and investors, providing a seamless and secure post-trade environment.
Together, these enhancements are expected to bolster market stability, reduce systemic risks, and attract both domestic and international investors, positioning the Saudi capital market as a world-class financial center aligned with global best practices.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red despite $3.2bn in trade volume
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dropped by 0.65 percent or 77.18 points to settle at 11,787.72 points on Monday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR12.2 billion ($3.2 billion), as 69 of the listed stocks advanced, while 158 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index also decreased by 13.96 points, or 0.94 percent, to close at 1,477.60.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also dropped, losing 20.69 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 30,864.65 points. This came as 39 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 47 retreated.
The index’s top performer, National Co. for Learning and Education, saw a 6.51 percent increase in its share price to close at SR229.
Other top performers included Retal Urban Development Co., which saw a 6.45 percent rise to reach SR16.50, while Jadwa REIT Saudi Fund’s share price rose by 5.80 percent to SR10.94.
Saudi Research and Media Group also recorded a positive trajectory, with share prices rising 5.71 percent to reach SR266.40.
Mobile Telecommunication Co. Saudi Arabia also witnessed positive gains, with 3.82 percent reaching SR10.86.
Saudi Chemical Co. was TASI’s worst performer, with the company’s share price dropping by 4.95 percent to SR9.60.
Saudi Automotive Services Co. followed with a 4.77 percent drop to SR71.80. Batic Investments and Logistics Co. also saw a notable drop of 3.90 percent to settle at SR3.45.
Walaa Cooperative Insurance Co. and Electrical Industries Co. were among the top five poorest performers, with shares declining by 3.78 percent to settle at SR21.36 and by 3.69 percent to sit at SR7.57, respectively.
On Nomu, International Human Resources Co. was the best performer, with its share price rising by 10.22 percent to reach SR6.04.
AME Co. for Medical Supplies and Leaf Global Environmental Services Co. also delivered strong performances. AME Co. for Medical Supplies saw its share price rise by 9.90 percent, reaching SR108.80, while Leaf Global Environmental Services Co. recorded a 5.94 percent increase, standing at SR107.
Paper Home Co. also fared well with 5.83, and the Academy of Learning Co. increased 5.38 percent.
Naseej for Technology Co. shed the most in Nomu, with its share price dropping by 5.71 percent to reach SR66.
Naas Petrol Factory Co. experienced a 5.43 percent decline in share prices, closing at SR64.50, while Al Rashid Industrial Co. dropped 5.17 percent to settle at SR44.
Alhasoob Co. and Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co. were also among the top decliners, with Alhasoob Co. falling 4.92 and Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co. declining 4.58 percent.
Saudi Arabia’s franchise registrations surge 866%, surpass 1,780
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has witnessed an 866 percent surge in franchise registrations over the past three years, reaching 1,788 by the end of the third quarter of 2024.
The Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that this marks a significant increase from just 185 in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The release added that the accommodation and food services sector, which includes tourism-related businesses, hotels, and restaurants, led registrations with 1,232 entries, followed by the wholesale and retail division with 689 and the transport and storage industry with 257 registrations.
The ministry highlighted that a single enrollment can encompass multiple activities.
Global franchises entered Saudi Arabia in 1970 and have greatly impacted the country’s economic and cultural landscape, according to the Small and Medium Enterprise General Authority, or Monsha’at.
The authority added that over 380 Saudi companies have franchises countrywide and are expanding into other GCC nations.
Monsha’at emphasized that to enhance its business environment, the Kingdom implemented several measures and procedures that empowered international companies to enter the Saudi market and increased investment opportunities for local entrepreneurs to attract the most prominent international services and brands.
This significant growth has been driven by the Franchise Law introduced in October 2019, and its implementing regulations issued a year later. The ordinance established a regulatory framework to strengthen the relationship between franchisors and franchisees, promoting transparency and clarity, thereby encouraging business activities across the Kingdom.
The commerce ministry pointed out that Riyadh topped the list of issued franchise registrations with 647 enrolments, followed by Makkah with 363 and Eastern Province with 225.
The ministry highlighted that the Franchise Center, under Monsha’at, is playing a pivotal role in promoting entrepreneurship by fostering a culture of franchising, providing services, and attracting local and foreign investment, as well as creating new job opportunities in line with the objectives of the Kingdom’s ambitious plan for 2030.
The franchise market in the Middle East and Africa is valued at $30 billion, with the Kingdom accounting for approximately 50 percent of that total, according to the organizers of the Saudi Franchise Expo, set to launch in January.
The sector has become one of the fastest-growing parts of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy, with an average annual increase of 27 percent.
Vision 2030 propels Saudi Arabia to forefront of global investment, says economy minister
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has established itself as a global growth platform for investments, driven by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 program, which has propelled the expansion of sectors like tourism, a senior minister said.
Speaking at the World Investment Conference in Riyadh, Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim highlighted that evolving sectors like tourism are playing a crucial role in sustaining the momentum of the Kingdom’s non-oil economy.
The National Tourism Strategy, initially targeting 100 million visitors annually by 2030, surpassed its goal in 2023, prompting the Kingdom to revise its target to 150 million visitors by the decade’s end.
Tourism’s gross domestic product contribution is set to rise from 6 percent to 10 percent, underlining its impact on Saudi Arabia’s economic trajectory.
Al-Ibrahim attributed this progress to deliberate diversification efforts, emphasizing that Vision 2030 has enabled the Kingdom to unlock inherent potential and foster collaborations with private and global partners.
“Saudi Arabia, today is a global growth platform. Maybe actually today, the Kingdom is ‘the’ global growth platform. And, we have been lucky enough to prove the power of diversification over the last few years. Tourism is growing fast, and it is helping Saudi Arabia’s non-oil growth remain steady and high for the past 15 quarters,” said Al-Ibrahim.
He added: “Saudi Vision 2030 is producing results and returns. We are unlocking immense inherent potential everywhere we go.”
Al-Ibrahim also mentioned that they had “a strong and deliberate start with Vision 2030.” He explained that since then, much of what had happened had been built on political will, cascading with various constituents, and collaboration with the private sector. This, he noted, “has led to the momentum we see today.”
Al-Ibrahim also underscored that non-oil activities now constitute 52 percent of Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product, with the Kingdom’s fixed capital formation climbing to 25 percent of GDP, up from less than 12 percent pre-Vision 2030.
According to the minister, Saudi Arabia is connecting people and countries to new markets by offering an investment-friendly environment.
“Saudi Arabia is becoming a more competitive and foundational platform for people who want to access new markets. The Kingdom is playing, not an anchor of stability role, but actually a promoter and driver of stability,” said Al-Ibrahim.
Discussing global cooperation, the minister noted that Saudi Arabia has been invited to join BRICS, but the decision is currently under assessment, with the final outcome to be unveiled in due course.
He added that Saudi Arabia is unique in opening new sectors, such as entertainment, while also strengthening existing industries like energy, defense, and healthcare.
“We have many sectors that existed before, but there is a lot of knowledge that has been accumulated in these sectors. We are moving from traditional hydrocarbon energy to renewables, to carbon removals, to green hydrogen, which requires a lot of innovation and collaboration,” said Al-Ibrahim.
Earlier this month, a report from the Kingdom’s Ministry of Investment highlighted that the entertainment sector is expected to create 450,000 jobs and contribute 4.2 percent of GDP by 2030.
The report also revealed that the entertainment sector is driving growth in tourism, with inbound visitors reaching 6.2 million in 2023, a 153.3 percent increase from the previous year.
IsDB’s efforts
During the same panel discussion, Muhammad Sulaiman Al-Jasser, chairman of the Islamic Development Bank Group, emphasized the institution’s efforts to empower its member countries’ growth.
Al-Jasser underscored the importance of basic infrastructure development as a foundation for economic progress, especially among IsDB member nations.
“We at the IsDB are very much concerned about the evolution of our member countries in terms of economic growth and development. We also know that the most basic element of any economic development starts with basic infrastructure,” said Al-Jasser.
He added: “We listen very carefully to our members. We don’t tell them what they need to do. But we listen to them and agree on the activities and strategic projects.”
Al-Jasser stressed the need for strong policy frameworks to attract investors.
“We have to advise our members that predictability of policies and robustness of regulatory frameworks are very important. Because investors have so many options, they will pick and choose. They will cherry-pick,” he added.
Since its inception in 1975, IsDB has financed projects worth over $190 billion across member countries while maintaining a ‘AAA’ credit rating.
In July, Moody’s affirmed the bank’s AAA rating with a stable outlook, citing its strong risk profile, low leverage, and robust liquid assets relative to debt.
Regional perspectives
Speaking at the same panel discussion, Samir Abdelhafidh, Tunisia’s minister of economy and planning, said that the country considers trade and foreign direct investment key potential drivers for economic growth and development.
Abdelhafidh added that Saudi Arabia and Tunisia could potentially collaborate in multiple industries, including renewable energy, transport and logistics, minerals, tourism, and the information technology sector.
For his part, Hassan El-Khatib, Egypt’s minister of investment and foreign trade, said that the country is implementing the right policies to attract foreign direct investment, which will play a crucial role in catalyzing its economic growth.
El-Khatib also invited private companies to invest in Egypt, stating that the country offers clarity and predictability in policies, which could boost investor confidence.
