WASHINGTON: The global economy is still expected to grow at a solid pace this year, but worsening trade confrontations pose serious risks to the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.
The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast global growth of 3.9 percent this year and next, despite sharp downgrades to estimates for Germany, France and Japan.
The US economy is still seen growing by 2.9 percent this year, and the estimate for China remains 6.6 percent, with little impact expected near term from the tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in exports the countries have imposed on each other so far.
“But the risk that current trade tensions escalate further — with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment — is the greatest near-term threat to global growth,” IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said.
The fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out.
Although the global recovery is in its second year, growth has “plateaued” and become less balanced, and “the risk of worse outcomes has increased,” Obstfeld said in a statement.
The report comes as US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs duties on $34 billion in imports from China, with another $200 billion coming as soon as September, on top of duties on steel and aluminum from around the world including key allies.
China has matched US tariffs dollar for dollar and threatened to take other steps to retaliate, while US exports face retaliatory taxes from Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
“An escalation of trade tensions could undermine business and financial market sentiment, denting investment and trade,” the IMF report said.
In addition, “higher trade barriers would make tradable goods less affordable, disrupt global supply chains, and slow the spread of new technologies, thus lowering productivity.”
The IMF said growth prospects are below average in many countries and urged governments to take steps to ensure economic growth will continue.
The fund said global cooperation and a “rule-based trade system has a vital role to play in preserving the global expansion.”
However, without steps to “ensure the benefits are shared by all, disenchantment with existing economic arrangements could well fuel further support for growth-detracting inward-looking policies.”
The sweeping US tax cuts approved in December will help the economy “strengthen temporarily,” but growth is expected to moderate to 2.7 percent for 2019.
And while the fiscal stimulus will boost US demand, is also will increase inflationary pressures, the WEO warned.
China’s growth also is seen slowing in 2019 to 6.4 percent.
After upgrading growth projections for the euro area in the April WEO, the IMF revised them down by two-tenths in 2018 to 2.2 percent, due to “negative surprises to activity in early 2018,” and another tenth in 2019 to 1.9 percent.
The estimates for Germany, France and Italy were cut by 0.3 points each, with Germany seen expanding by 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2019. France’s GDP is expected to grow 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent.
Meanwhile, Britain is now forecast to grow 1.4 percent this year, 0.2 points less than the April estimate, and 1.5 percent in 2019.
Japan’s GDP is seen slowing to 1.0 percent this year, two-tenths less than previously forecast, “following a contraction in the first quarter, owing to weak private consumption and investment.” It should grow 0.9 percent the following year.
India remains a key drivers of global growth, but the GDP outlook was cut one-tenth for this year and three-tenths for next year to 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.
Brazil saw an even sharper 0.5-point downward revisions from the April forecast, to 1.8 percent this year.
IMF warns of rising risks to global growth amid trade tensions
IMF warns of rising risks to global growth amid trade tensions

- Worsening trade confrontations pose serious risks to the outlook, the IMF said
- The fund warns growth could be cut by a half point by 2020 if tariff threats are carried out
Saudi Arabia raises $990m through April sukuk issuance

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center raised SR3.71 billion ($990 million) through its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for April, reflecting a 40.5 percent increase compared to the previous month, according to an official statement.
The amount marks a significant rise from March, when the Kingdom secured SR2.64 billion through sukuk. In previous months, Saudi Arabia issued SR3.07 billion in February and SR3.72 billion in January, continuing a trend of strong activity in the domestic debt market.
Sukuk are Shariah-compliant financial instruments similar to bonds, offering investors partial ownership in an issuer’s assets. They are structured to adhere to Islamic finance principles, which prohibit interest payments.
According to the NDMC, the April issuance was divided into four tranches. The first tranche was valued at SR1.31 billion and is set to mature in 2029. The second amounted to SR80 million, maturing in 2032, while the third tranche, worth SR765 million, will expire in 2036. The largest portion, valued at SR1.55 billion, is due in 2039.
The Kingdom’s debt market has seen rapid growth in recent years, drawing increased interest from investors seeking fixed-income instruments amid a global environment of rising interest rates.
Earlier this month, a report by Kuwait Financial Center, known as Markaz, revealed that Saudi Arabia led the Gulf Cooperation Council region in primary debt issuances in the first quarter of the year. The Kingdom raised $31.01 billion from 41 offerings, accounting for 60.2 percent of all issuances across the GCC during that period.
In a separate development, global credit rating agency S&P Global said Saudi Arabia’s expanding non-oil sector and healthy sukuk issuance levels could contribute significantly to the growth of the global Islamic finance industry.
The agency projected global sukuk issuance could reach between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated issuances contributing up to $80 billion, provided market volatility remains contained.
A report published in December by Kamco Invest further projected that Saudi Arabia would account for the largest share of bond maturities in the GCC from 2025 to 2029, with a total of $168 billion expected to mature during that period.
Over 40 Indian firms have established regional HQs in Saudi Arabia, official reveals

RIYADH: More than 40 Indian companies have established headquarters in Saudi Arabia, with additional facilities in the defense sector expected in the near future, according to a top official.
Abdulaziz Al-Qahtani, chairman of the Saudi-Indian Business Council, made the comments as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Jeddah on Tuesday for a two-day visit.
He is expected to meet with Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during the trip.
Al-Qahtani said the visit aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader push to localize defense spending, boost technology transfer, and expand domestic investment across sectors that contribute to national gross domestic product.
In an interview with Al-Eqtisadiah, Al-Qahtani said Saudi investments in India are valued at around $10 billion, including stakes by the Public Investment Fund in major companies such as Reliance Jio Platforms, Reliance Retail, OYO Hotels, and the Health Technology Co.
“Al-Qahtani pointed out that the Saudi-Indian Business Council is working to encourage Indian investment in Saudi Arabia, identify investment opportunities in India, and transfer and localize technology in various sectors, such as space and defense,” Al-Eqtisadiah reported.
“It also aims to exchange expertise in education and training, benefit from mutual expertise in tourism and entertainment, and cooperate in the healthcare sector, pharmaceutical and medical supplies industries, and enhance integration in logistics services,” the report added.
Al-Qahtani added that India has invited Saudi Arabia to invest in its growing defense sector, which has opened up to private investors in recent years.
Indian firms that have already established regional bases in Saudi Arabia include those working in automobile and bus manufacturing.
The move by the more than 40 Indian firms comes amid a wave of multinational companies establishing regional bases in the Kingdom.
Almost 600 international companies have set up bases in Saudi Arabia since 2021, including Northern Trust, IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Deloitte, the Saudi Press Agency reported in March.
The growth was fueled by the government-backed Riyadh regional headquarters program, which offers incentives such as a 30-year corporate income tax exemption and withholding tax relief, alongside regulatory support for multinationals operating in the Kingdom.
India remains a key energy partner for the Kingdom, as it imported 14 percent of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and 18 percent of its liquefied natural gas exports in the past year.
Bilateral trade has also expanded in sectors such as chemicals, construction, and contracting, as well as healthcare training, and information technology.
Total trade between the two countries reached around $42 billion in the financial year 2023-24. Of this, Indian exports to Saudi Arabia accounted for approximately $11 billion, consisting of engineering products, rice, and petroleum derivatives, as well as chemicals, food and medical supplies, and textiles.
Saudi exports to India totaled SR31 billion ($8.2 billion), including crude oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, chemicals, and plastics.
Saudi gold investment demand up 9% in 2024 as bar purchases surge

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s demand for gold bars and coins rose 9 percent in 2024 to 15.4 tonnes, reaffirming the Kingdom’s position as the Gulf region’s largest investment market for the precious metal, a new report showed.
The World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2024 report attributed the increase to heightened investor appetite for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty, despite a slowdown in jewelry purchases.
The document highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s performance in the gold market aligns with a broader regional trend, with countries like the UAE and Kuwait also showing strong growth.
Saudi investors responded to fluctuations in gold prices, taking advantage of opportunities in the market.
In particular, demand for bars surged, while the sale of coins saw a slight decrease. The report noted that this robust performance was not limited to the first three quarters of 2024 but continued in the final quarter, with a 20 percent year-on-year increase in bar and coin purchases to 4.3 tonnes.
Despite the strong growth in investment demand, gold jewelry consumption in the Kingdom experienced a decline, falling by 8 percent to 35 tonnes in 2024.
This decrease reflects the impact of high gold prices, which have limited the purchasing power of consumers.
The report indicated that the demand for gold jewelry saw a slight recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by a price dip that prompted buying.
The World Gold Council also observed a regional trend where gold remained a key asset class for investors, particularly in the face of rising inflation and geopolitical instability.
As the global gold price reached record highs in 2024, Saudi investors increasingly turned to gold as a hedge against these challenges.
The UAE also registered an increase in bar and coin demand, rising 15 percent annually to 13.3 tonnes in 2024. Fourth-quarter demand in the UAE climbed to 3.4 tonnes, up from 3.1 tonnes a year earlier.
However, jewelry consumption in the Emirates declined 13 percent over the year, totaling 34.7 tonnes, reflecting similar affordability challenges seen across the region.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council expects the Kingdom’s gold market to remain resilient, supported by strong investor interest in gold and its role as a hedge in uncertain times.
The report came as gold extended its record run on Tuesday, breaching $3,500 per ounce, as weakness in the dollar, US President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve and trade war fears boosted demand for the safe-haven asset.
Spot gold was up 0.5 percent at $3,440.51 an ounce by 3:21 p.m. Saudi time, after rising as much as 2.2 percent to $3,500.05 earlier in the session. US gold futures climbed 0.9 percent to $3,454.60.
Saudi Arabia posts 66.7% rise in industrial licenses in February

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia issued 105 new industrial licenses in February, marking a 66.7 percent increase compared to January, supporting the Kingdom’s drive for economic growth and diversification.
A total of 113 factories also commenced production during the second month of the year, representing a 9.7 percent increase in comparison with the previous month, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources.
According to a report from the ministry’s National Industrial and Mining Information Center, the new licenses represent investments exceeding SR1.02 billion ($272 million) and are expected to create 1,504 jobs.
These developments are part of a broader trend in the sector. An official study revealed that 1,346 new industrial permits were issued in the first quarter of 2024, paving the way for over 44,000 new job opportunities and attracting investments surpassing SR50 billion ($13.3 billion).
They also align with Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy, unveiled by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October 2022, which seeks to accelerate sector growth and raise the number of factories across the Kingdom to approximately 36,000 by 2035.
The strategy targets 12 sub-sectors and outlines over 800 investment opportunities, valued at SR1 trillion, with the goal of tripling the nation’s industrial gross domestic product.
The issuance of permits also correlates with the Kingdom’s National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, launched in 2019, to support the industrial sector and drive sustainable development.
The ministry added in its statement that factories entering the production phase attracted investments totaling SR900 million and generated 4,114 new jobs, underscoring the continued growth and expansion of the country’s industrial base as these establishments reach full operational capacity.
Saudi Arabia’s Industrial Production Index recorded a 1.3 percent year-on-year increase in January, driven by sustained growth in manufacturing and waste management, according to the General Authority for Statistics. Monthly, the index remained steady at 103.9, unchanged from December.
The manufacturing sub-index posted a 4 percent annual rise, supported by a 4.3 percent increase in the production of coke and refined petroleum products, as well as a 4.2 percent uptick in chemicals and chemical products.
The report, which monitors key industrial indicators, also revealed that investments linked to newly issued industrial licenses reached SR1.197 billion, with the associated projects expected to create more than 2,500 job opportunities across the Kingdom.
IMF projects 3% growth for Saudi economy in 2025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2025, with further acceleration to 3.7 percent in 2026, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund.
The forecast marks a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 compared to the IMF’s projections issued in January. Despite the slight adjustment, the Kingdom’s anticipated economic performance continues to outpace the global average, which the IMF estimates at 2.8 percent for 2025 and 3 percent for 2026.
“The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity,” the IMF noted in its report.
Regionally, Saudi Arabia is expected to outperform several of its Gulf neighbors. The IMF projects Bahrain’s GDP to grow by 2.8 percent in 2025, followed by Qatar at 2.4 percent, Oman at 2.3 percent, and Kuwait at 1.9 percent.
The UAE is forecast to lead the Gulf Cooperation Council with a 4 percent growth rate in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026.
The IMF also predicts that inflation in Saudi Arabia will remain contained, with the average annual rate holding steady at 2.1 percent in 2025 and easing slightly to 2 percent the following year.
In a separate analysis released in December, Mastercard Economics estimated a 3.7 percent expansion for the Saudi economy in 2024, driven largely by growth in non-oil sectors.
Underscoring the Kingdom’s economic momentum, ratings agency S&P Global upgraded Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating to “A+” from “A” in March, citing the country’s ongoing social and economic transformation as a key factor for the stable outlook.
Across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, the IMF anticipates economic growth to average 2.6 percent in 2025, before climbing to 3.4 percent in 2026.
Globally, the US is forecast to record GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026.
Among emerging markets, India is expected to lead with projected growth of 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent the following year. China’s economy, meanwhile, is expected to expand by 4 percent annually during the same period.