PTI overthrew MQM, PPP in Karachi, but can it retain the throne?

Jahangir Tareen (C), the senior leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party of Imran Khan, arrives at the headquarter of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) party in Karachi on July 31, 2018. (AFP)
Updated 02 August 2018
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PTI overthrew MQM, PPP in Karachi, but can it retain the throne?

  • Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won 14 out of 21 Karachi seats, putting an end to the decades-long reign of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in the city
  • Analysts said that whether PTI translates its historic victory into a consolidated vote bank in Karachi depends on the fulfilment of election promises

KARACHI: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which emerged as the largest political party in Karachi in the general election of 2018, has also conquered the areas of Azizabad, north Karachi and Lyari’s political fortresses of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM-P) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which had ruled for decades.

Political observers, however, are assessing if Imran Khan’s party, which is forming governments in the center, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provinces, will turn its recent victory in Karachi into a consolidated vote bank for future elections.
The PPP, despite a spirited election drive by its Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, lost NA-246 to PTI’s Shakoor Shad, ending the four-decade reign of the Bhuttos over Lyari, a neighborhood that had been voting for them since the 1970s.
The MQM’s electoral record over three decades was impressive. It won 9 out of 11 seats (82 percent) on its debut in 1988 and never looked back. At the next elections in 1990 it won 10 out of 11 seats, however a boycott of the next general polls in 1993 brought the number down to 9 in 1997; but still it enjoyed the mandate of 82 percent of voters.
With a relatively low performance in 2002, when it won 12 out 20 (60 percent) seats, mainly due to a wave in favor of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal in the wake of the US invasion of Afghanistan, it retook its seats and won 17 out of 20 seats in the general elections of 2008 and 2013. On other hand, the PTI, which could win only a single seat — NA-250, still bagged a large number of votes, emerging as the second largest in terms of total votes.
Khan’s party, which had obtained nearly 0.7 million votes from Karachi in 2013, was criticized for not consolidating its vote bank but in the recent elections the PTI shocked observers by securing 14 out of 21 national assembly seats, also winning the MQM-P and PPP’s strongholds.
Political analysts said that in 2013 the post-election apathy toward Karachi did not take voters away from PTI, but since the electorates have now voted in a large number of PTI candidates, their future association with PTI vote bank will certainly be decided by PTI’s performance in Karachi.
Besides the popular slogan of “Prime Minister Karachi Se” (“Prime Minister from Karachi” and “getting rid of the MQM,” on which Khan’s party took a U-turn, the PTI chairman had presented a ten-point Karachi agenda — including holding mayoral elections and improving the education system, healthcare and hospitals, police, business and industry, power shortages, playgrounds and sporting facilities, environment, sewerage and the circular railway — on May 13, 2018, on which, the analysts predict, the PTI future depends.
Kashif Hafeez, director of Pulse consultants — a survey firm that has conducted several pre-poll surveys — said that the people of Karachi voted for “change” and PTI’s “national narrative” rather than local issues.
“It’s however difficult to predict at this stage that the PTI will replace the MQM as the permanent majority party,” Hafeez said, concurring that the fulfilment of PTI’s promises for the city will play a role.
Mashail Malik, a PhD scholar who is researching Karachi’s politics, said that many of the MoHajjir electorates told her that they had voted for PTI in 2013 and voted for it again. “These were folks who were disappointed with MQM’s performance, especially in the period 2009-13 when local governments were no longer empowered and violence was at very high levels.”
“The electorates who switched from the MQM to PTI will be closely following if the PTI fulfils its promises to Karachi. If it does not, they may not vote for it again,” she told Arab News.
The MQM-P central leader Faisal Subzwari said that the PTI will have to deliver otherwise Karachiites will take their words as hollow promises. “They have federal government and Karachi contributes more than 60 percent of federal revenues, so the federation must give Karachi its due share, especially now when a federal government is the largest shareholder of the city’s mandate,” Subzwari told Arab News.
Zia Ur Rehman, a Karachi-based journalist and author, said, however, that it was no easy task due to the passage of some laws.
Although the PTI had released a plan before the election to resolve the city’s civic issues, it would be very difficult for them after the passage of the 18th amendment, Rehman said. “The PPP in the past assembly passed a number of bills to decrease the powers of major and local bodies, and without strengthening it civic issues cannot be resolved.”
Ali Zaidi, senior leader of the PTI and MNA elect, said that the PTI’s performance and delivery over the next five years will determine if it is a one-shot wonder or a permanent majority party in Karachi.
“If we do not get the cooperation we seek from both levels of government, we will look at options that the federal government can implement on its own without the PPP’s Sindh Government and MQM’s Karachi Government,” Zaidi told Arab News.
“The PTI will resolve the major problems facing Karachi by taking all stakeholders onboard and producing consensus solutions. In addition, we can direct federal funds to different infrastructure projects and look at a public-private partnership model, especially about the matter of providing low-cost housing,” Zaidi said.
Zaidi admitted that there might be some negative political fallout of vacating Imran Khan’s Seat after winning the elections with the “Prime Minister Karachi Se” slogan. “Since we won 14 out of 21 National Assembly seats in Karachi and (considering) the value of these seats to the PTI’s total, in essence the prime minister has been elected from Karachi.”
Defending the inclusion of the MQM in the federal government, Zaidi said that it might be seen as a minor setback but the MQM is the not the party of Altaf Hussain anymore after August 22, 2016. 
“As long as we remain close to our constituents, sincerely work to serve them and provide good governance, I believe the PTI will continue to be a force to be reckoned with in Karachi,” Zaidi said.


A tiny village in India where Kamala Harris has ancestral roots is praying for her victory

Updated 34 min 20 sec ago
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A tiny village in India where Kamala Harris has ancestral roots is praying for her victory

THULASENDRAPURAM: The temple reverberated with rhythmic Sanskrit and Tamil hymns, as a Hindu priest held a flame before the god. As this tiny South Indian village gathered to pray for Kamala Harris, a gaggle of reporters jostled for space and camera angles.
There's little to distinguish the village of Thulasendrapuram from any other rural community in Tamil Nadu, except its connection to a woman who could become America's first leader with South Asian roots.
As millions of Americans vote, Harris has people rooting for her from thousands of miles away in a village surrounded by rice paddies and coconut trees, where her mother's family has ancestral ties. They talk about her at the local tea shop. Banners and billboards bearing her face are seen throughout the community.
“Our deity is a very powerful God. If we pray well to him, he will make her victorious,” said M. Natarajan, the temple priest that led the prayers in front of the image of Hindu deity Ayyanar, a form of Lord Shiva.
Harris’ maternal grandfather was born in the village, about 350 kilometers (215 miles) from the southern coastal city of Chennai, more than 100 years ago. As an adult, he moved to Chennai, where he worked as a high-ranking government official until his retirement.
Harris has never visited Thulasendrapuram and she has no living relatives in the village, but people here still venerate the family that made it big in the U.S.
“Our village ancestors' granddaughter is running as a U.S. presidential candidate. Her victory will be happy news for every one of us,” Natarajan said.
The village's sudden fame has helped bring money into the village. Recently, construction began on a water storage tank with funds donated by a local bank. Village residents say it will carry a plaque with Harris’ name.
Harris’ late mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in India. After moving to the U.S. to study, she married a Jamaican man, and they named their daughter Kamala, a Sanskrit word for “lotus flower.”
Other than trips during her childhood, Harris hasn’t visited India much — particularly not since becoming vice president — but she has often spoken emotionally about her ties to her late mother’s country of birth. On Tuesday, she released a campaign video highlighting her mother, who arrived in the U.S. at age 19 and became a cancer researcher.
Titled “Mother,” the video ends with a narrator saying: “This daughter of Shyamala, this daughter of the American story, is ready to lead us forward.”
Harris has often talked about how she was guided by the values of her Indian-born grandfather and mother. She has also spoken of her love of south Indian food, especially a type of steamed rice cake called idli.
Harris’ name is engraved in a list of donors — her aunt Sarala Gopalan gave money to the temple in her name — along with that of her grandfather. Outside, a large banner wishes “the daughter of the land” success in the election.
On Tuesday, the village temple also received rare international visitors: two American tourists and one from the U.K., all wearing black t-shirts that said “Kamala Freakin Harris.”
Manikandan Ganesan, a villager who runs a small store near the temple, said Harris’ bid for the presidency has made the village famous. He hopes Harris will eventually visit them.
“Even if she mentioned that she would visit our village, it would make us very happy,” Ganesan said. “Her victory itself will be a big source of happiness for us.”
Village residents also prayed for Harris’ victory in 2020, and set off firecrackers when she became the U.S. Vice President.
For women of the village, the candidate's journey is a source of inspiration.
Local politician Arulmozhi Sudhakar said Harris embodies a significant step toward female empowerment in places like Thulasendrapuram, where a majority of women continue to face discrimination and gender inequality.
“From the time when women were not even allowed to step out of their house, to now a woman from our village contesting in the U.S. presidential election — this brings happiness for us,” Sudhakar said. “The coming generations will see her as a role model to succeed in life.”

Ukraine’s military says it shot down 48 drones and two missiles overnight

Updated 05 November 2024
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Ukraine’s military says it shot down 48 drones and two missiles overnight

KYIV: The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday it shot down 48 out of 79 drones and two missiles launched by Russia overnight.
The air force said the location of 30 other drones had been lost, while another had returned to Russia.


India foreign minister says vandalism of Hindu temples deeply concerning

Updated 05 November 2024
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India foreign minister says vandalism of Hindu temples deeply concerning

  • Vandalism incident happened weeks after Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, linking them to killing of Sikh separatist leader in 2023 
  • Canada has accused India of conducting a broad campaign against South Asian dissidents in Canada, which New Delhi denies 

SYDNEY: India foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Tuesday the vandalism of a Hindu temple in Canada on Monday was deeply concerning.
“What happened yesterday at the Hindu temple in Canada was obviously deeply concerning,” he told reporters in the Australian capital Canberra while on an official visit.
The incident happened weeks after Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, linking them to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in 2023 in Canada. Canada has accused the Indian government of conducting a broad campaign against South Asian dissidents in Canada, which New Delhi denies.
The incident has increased tensions between Canada and India, and between Sikh separatists and Indian diplomats.
Two Hindu temples were also vandalized in Canberra last month, which Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said was upsetting for members of the Indian community.
“People across Australia have a right to be safe and respected, people also have a right to peaceful protest, people have a right to express their views peacefully,” she told reporters.
“We draw a line between that and violence, incitement of hatred or vandalism,” she added.
Wong said Australia had expressed its views to India about Canada’s allegations over the targeting of Sikh separatists, and Canberra respected Canada’s judicial process. Jaishankar said it was unacceptable that Indian diplomats had been placed under surveillance by Canada.
“Canada has developed a pattern of making allegations without providing specifics,” he said.


India foreign minister says vandalism of Hindu temples deeply concerning

Updated 05 November 2024
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India foreign minister says vandalism of Hindu temples deeply concerning

  • Canada has accused the Indian government of conducting a broad campaign against South Asian dissidents in Canada, which New Delhi denies

SYDNEY: India foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Tuesday the vandalism of a Hindu temple in Canada on Monday was deeply concerning.
“What happened yesterday at the Hindu temple in Canada was obviously deeply concerning,” he told reporters in the Australian capital Canberra while on an official visit.
The incident happened weeks after Ottawa expelled six Indian diplomats, linking them to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in 2023 in Canada. Canada has accused the Indian government of conducting a broad campaign against South Asian dissidents in Canada, which New Delhi denies.
The incident has increased tensions between Canada and India, and between Sikh separatists and Indian diplomats.
Two Hindu temples were also vandalized in Canberra last month, which Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said was upsetting for members of the Indian community.
“People across Australia have a right to be safe and respected, people also have a right to peaceful protest, people have a right to express their views peacefully,” she told reporters.
“We draw a line between that and violence, incitement of hatred or vandalism,” she added.
Wong said Australia had expressed its views to India about Canada’s allegations over the targeting of Sikh separatists, and Canberra respected Canada’s judicial process. Jaishankar said it was unacceptable that Indian diplomats had been placed under surveillance by Canada.
“Canada has developed a pattern of making allegations without providing specifics,” he said.


Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Updated 05 November 2024
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Trump wants the presidential winner to be declared on election night. Why that’s unlikely

Former President Donald Trump is stepping up his demands that the winner of the presidential race be declared shortly after polls close Tuesday, well before all the votes are counted.
Trump set the pattern in 2020, when he declared that he had won during the early morning hours after Election Day. That led his allies to demand that officials “stop the count!” He and many other conservatives have spent the past four years falsely claiming that fraud cost him that election and bemoaning how long it takes to count ballots in the US
But one of many reasons we are unlikely to know the winner quickly on election night is that Republican lawmakers in two key swing states have refused to change laws that delay the count. Another is that most indications are this will be a very close election, and it takes longer to determine who won close elections than blowouts.
In the end, election experts note, the priority in vote-counting is to make sure it’s an accurate and secure tally, not to end the suspense moments after polls close.
“There’s nothing nefarious about it,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “The time delay is to protect the integrity of the process.”
Trump’s demand also doesn’t seem to account for the six time zones from the East Coast to Hawaii.
David Becker, an elections expert and co-author of “The Big Truth,” debunking Trump’s 2020 election lies, said it’s not realistic for election officials in thousands of jurisdictions to “instantly snap their fingers and count 160 million multi-page ballots with dozens of races on them.”
Trump wants the race decided Tuesday night
During a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania, Trump demanded that the race be decided soon after some polls begin closing.
“They have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night,” Trump said. “Bunch of crooked people. These are crooked people.”
It was not clear who he was targeting with the “crooked people” remark.
Timing is one example of why Trump’s demands don’t match the reality of conducting elections in the US By 11 p.m. Eastern time, polls will just be closing in the two Western swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
Trump has led conservatives to bemoan that the US doesn’t count elections as swiftly as France or Argentina, where results for recent races have been announced within hours of polls closing. But that’s because those countries tabulate only a single election at a time. The decentralized US system prevents the federal government from controlling elections.
Instead, votes are counted in nearly 10,000 separate jurisdictions, each of which has its own races for the state legislature, city council, school boards and ballot measures to tabulate at the same time. That’s why it takes longer for the US to count votes.
Declaring a winner can take time
The Associated Press calls races when there is no possibility that the trailing candidate can make up the gap. Sometimes, if one candidate is significantly behind, a winner can be called quickly. But if the margin is narrow, then every last vote could matter. It takes a while before every vote is counted even in the most efficient jurisdictions in the country.
In 2018, for example, Republican Rick Scott won the US Senate race in Florida, a state conservatives regularly praise for its quick tally. But the AP didn’t call Scott’s victory until after the conclusion of a recount on Nov. 20 because Scott’s margin was so slim.
It also takes time to count every one of the millions of votes because election officials have to process disputed, or “provisional,” ballots, and to see if they were legitimately cast. Overseas ballots from military members or other US citizens abroad can trickle in at the last minute. Mail ballots usually land early, but there’s a lengthy process to make sure they’re not cast fraudulently. If that process doesn’t start before Election Day, it can back up the count.
Some states, such as Arizona, also give voters whose mail ballots were rejected because the signatures didn’t match up to five days to prove they actually cast the ballot. That means final numbers simply cannot be available Tuesday night.
Election rules are to blame in some states
Some of the sluggishness is due to state-specific election rules. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two of the most important swing states, election officials for years have pleaded with Republican lawmakers to change the law that prevents them from processing their mail ballots before Election Day. That means mail ballots get tallied late, and frequently the results don’t start to get reported until after Election Day.
Democrats have traditionally dominated mail voting, which has made it seem like Republicans are in the lead until the early hours of the next morning, when Democratic mail votes finally get added to the tally. Experts even have names for this from past elections — the “red mirage” or the “blue shift.” Trump exploited that dynamic in 2020 when he had his supporters demand an abrupt end to vote counts — the ballots that remained untallied were largely mail ones that were for Joe Biden. It’s not clear how that will play out this year, since Republicans have shifted and voted in big numbers during early voting.
Michigan used to have similar restrictions, but after Democrats won control of the state Legislature in 2022 they removed the prohibition on early processing of mail ballots. That state’s Democratic Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said she hopes to have most results available by Wednesday.
“At the end of the day, chief election officials are the folks who have the ability to provide those accurate results. Americans should focus on what they say and not what any specific candidate or folks who are part of the campaign say,” said Jen Easterly, director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Trump allies urge him to declare victory swiftly
Some of Trump’s allies say he should be even more aggressive about declaring victory this time around.
Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon, who in 2020 predicted the then-president would declare victory before the race was called, advocated for a similar strategy during a recent press conference after he was released from federal prison, where he was serving time for a contempt of Congress conviction related to the investigation into Trump’s effort to overturn his loss in 2020.
“President Trump came up at 2:30 in the morning and talked,” Bannon said. “He should have done it at 11 o’clock in 2020.”
Other Trump supporters have taken a darker tone. His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, suggested during a recent interview on the right-wing American Truth Project podcast that violence could erupt in states still counting ballots the day after Election Day because people “are just not going to put up with it.”
Trying to project a sense of inevitability about a Trump win, the former president and his supporters have been touting early vote data and favorable polls to contend the election is all but over. Republicans have returned to voting early after largely staying away at Trump’s direction in 2020 and 2022. In some swing states that track party registration, registered Republicans are outvoting Democrats in early voting.
But that doesn’t mean Republicans are ahead in any meaningful sense. Early voting data does not tell you who will win an election because it only records who voted, not how they voted.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has been explicitly targeting Republicans disillusioned by Trump. In each of those states where more Republicans have voted, there also are huge numbers of voters casting early ballots who are not registered with either of the two major political parties. If Harris won just a tiny fraction more of those votes than Trump, it would erase the small leads Republicans have.
There’s only one way to find out who won the presidential election: Wait until enough votes are tallied, whenever that is.