LONDON: China is expected to buy more oil from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers as it seeks to replace US supply amid a worsening trade war with Washington.
Although China last week omitted US crude from a list of a retaliatory tariffs, analysts told Arab News that the Chinese were cutting forward orders for US oil in case the trade war escalates.
Richard Mallinson, co-founder of London consultancy Energy Aspects, said: “Chinese buyers, anticipating that crude and LNG could go on the list if tensions escalate further, are looking to alternative sources.”
Mallinson said that Chinese buyers wanted to avoid having significant amounts of US oil sitting on tankers in the middle of the ocean, which would be hit with tariffs when unloaded at Chinese ports.
“There is definitely an opportunity for Middle East producers here, and particularly the biggest, Saudi Arabia,” he said.
Andrew Critchlow, head of energy news (EMEA) at S&P Global Platts, told Arab News that there was every likelihood of more demand from China for non-US oil and “Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries were the place to get it.”
OPEC already provides 56 percent of China’s oil imports, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The US has also been exporting increasing levels to the Asia powerhouse.
A report by the Houston Chronicle on Aug. 13, said that US crude exports to China surged from about 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 to almost 400,000 bpd last year and early in 2018, accounting for about 20 percent of all US crude shipments.
This summer, those volumes fell below 200,000 barrels daily, said the report.
Critchlow said that the Kingdom was currently producing about
10.5 million bpd with spare capacity of around 2 million bpd, although the closer you get to that number, the more difficult it was to extract and process, he said.
Russia could also ramp up production, but not as much as KSA, said Critchlow.
“We now have the IEA upping its demand forecast for 2019. They have increased their OPEC barrels estimate by a few hundred thousand barrels a day and by half a million a day by 2019 (for the OPEC 15),”
he said.
But the scope for increased global export potential from the Gulf was also being driven by anticipated tighter supply after the reimposition of US sanctions against Iran later this year.
Still, there was a danger of demand erosion the longer the trade wars continued, and especially if there was further escalation.
Shakil Begg, head of Thomson Reuters oil research in London, warned that by the second half of 2019, global GDP could be cut if world trade levels contracted.
That would lead to a sharp fall in the price of crude, and even herald a US recession that could spill into Europe, he told Arab News.
But Critchlow made the crucial point that the big competition in the oil market today “is to win a bigger share of the Chinese and Asian market, including India.”
He said: “That’s where the battle for market share will take place over the next decade. Also, as Iranian barrels are lost, customers in nations such as China, South Korea, India and Japan will look to the GCC and others to step in.”
US exporters will still be a big force to be reckoned with, he said. The IEA has predicted that the US will overtake KSA and Russia as the largest producer by as early as 2019.
Mallinson said: “At the end of this year and the beginning of next, the market is going to get extremely tight. And the Saudis will have to pump at much higher levels.
“When you’ve got buyers restricted from where they go, it does create alternatives to move upwards,” said Mallinson.
But he warned that if the trade war worsens, it could hobble economic growth.
“These are the two largest economies in the world and it is not good news for them getting into a conflict like this.
“But even with a severe economic slowdown, we still see a tight oil market next year. Iran and sanctions are the biggest driver.”
Mallinson said that there were two other constraints: Underinvestment in capital projects outside the US, and infrastructure bottlenecks
in America.
“Those factors are big enough on the supply side to outweigh the possibility of a sharp slowdown of growth on the demand side,” he said.
Gulf exporters to reap oil dividend as battle for Asia market share heats up
Gulf exporters to reap oil dividend as battle for Asia market share heats up
- Chinese exports to US fall
- IEA ups demand forecast
Aramco signs agreement to advance SASREF expansion
RIYADH: Energy giant Saudi Aramco and China-based Rongsheng Petrochemical Co. have signed a framework agreement to boost the expansion of a subsidiary of the state-owned oil company.
According to a press statement, the tripartite agreement outlines a cooperation framework and detailed plans to design and develop Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Co. or SASREF. The initiative is expected to enhance SASREF’s refining and petrochemical capabilities.
The deal follows an announcement made in April that Aramco and Rongsheng Petrochemical had signed a partnership agreement related to the planned formation of a joint venture in SASREF.
Aramco’s long-standing relationship with China spans more than three decades.
This new framework agreement is part of the company’s broader strategy to solidify its position in the global energy landscape while supporting the Kingdom’s economic growth.
“By aligning our efforts, Aramco and Rongsheng Petrochemical aim to deliver additional value to our stakeholders,” said Aramco Downstream President Mohammed Al-Qahtani.
He added: “This development framework agreement underscores Aramco’s intentions to foster closer collaboration with key partners and progressing its strategic downstream expansion, both in Saudi Arabia and internationally. It also highlights the potential of the Kingdom’s downstream sector to attract overseas players.”
Li Shuirong, chairman of Rongsheng Petrochemical, said that the collaborative project will contribute to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program and China’s Belt and Road initiative.
“The signing of the development framework agreement sets the stage for Rongsheng Petrochemical’s in-depth participation in the SASREF expansion project,” said Shuirong.
He added: “Saudi Arabia has abundant energy resources and significant market potential, and Rongsheng Petrochemical will bring strong momentum to the partnership through our excellent operation and management capabilities and market competitiveness.”
The SASREF expansion project is located in Jubail Industrial City along the Arabian Gulf coast in the Kingdom’s Eastern Province.
The project, which is currently in the pre-front-end engineering design stage, envisages the construction of large-scale steam crackers and the integration of associated downstream derivatives into the existing SASREF complex, enhancing its ability to meet the growing demand for high-quality petrochemical products, the statement added.
Earlier in November, Aramco, in partnership with China Petrochemical & Chemical Corp. and Fujian Petrochemical Co., started the construction of a refinery and petrochemical complex in the Asian nation’s Fujian province.
The undertaking, which is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2030, includes an oil refinery with a capacity of 320,000 barrels per day, according to a press statement.
It will also have a 1.5 million tonnes-per-year ethylene unit, a 2 million tonnes paraxylene and downstream derivatives capacity, and a 300,000 tonnes crude oil terminal.
COP29: Azerbaijan unveils Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative
RIYADH: Azerbaijan has launched the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative, a program designed to help farmers combat global warming while ensuring food security.
The initiative, which prioritizes knowledge sharing and climate finance solutions, was announced during a press conference by Azerbaijan’s Minister of Agriculture, Majnun Mammadov, at COP29.
This effort aligns with Azerbaijan’s revised Nationally Determined Contributions, which pledge a 40 percent reduction in emissions by 2050, conditional on international support. The energy sector, responsible for over half of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, remains a focal point of Azerbaijan’s climate strategy.
“I am proud to officially announce the launch of the Baku Harmonia Climate Initiative for farmers. It is an inclusive platform designed particularly for women and youth, and aims to strengthen global collaboration,” Mammadov said.
He highlighted that the initiative will focus on promoting technology investments, sustainable practices, and crop diversification.
“Harmonia focuses on sharing knowledge, facilitating climate finance, and addressing the unique challenges farmers face,” he added.
Mammadov emphasized the importance of enhancing farmers’ participation, advancing research and innovation, improving water management systems, and implementing subsidy programs to encourage sustainability.
Also speaking during the conference, COP29 Lead Negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev underlined the initiative’s significance, noting the momentum gained from international cooperation.
“We have been encouraged by the positive signals from the G20 to our ongoing efforts,” Rafiyev said. However, he stressed that current climate finance levels remain insufficient and require scaling up.
As a significant producer of fossil fuels, Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29, like last year’s host, the UAE, signifies a shift toward sustainable climate policies.
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev recently told Arab News that hosting the conference reflects his country’s commitment to driving change.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,876
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index edged up on Tuesday, as it gained 45.53 points or 0.38 percent to close at 11,875.91.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.09 billion ($1.62 billion) with 138 stocks advancing, while 90 declining.
The parallel market, Nomu, however, marginally slipped by 0.09 percent to 29,570.56.
The MSCI Tadawul Index gained 4.76 points to close at 1,491.83.
The best-performing stock of the day was Shatirah House Restaurant Co., also known as Burgerizzr. The company’s share price increased by 9.98 percent to SR22.26.
The share price of Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co. increased by 8.29 percent to SR14.10, while the stock price of Development Works Food Co. surged by 6.85 percent to SR131.
Conversely, the share price of Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. slipped by 9.68 percent to SR0.28.
On the parallel market, the best performer was Knowledge Tower Trading Co., whose share price surged by 9.61 percent to SR10.84.
On the announcements front, Molan Steel Co. said it signed a memorandum of understanding with Yara International Limited Co. to acquire 100 percent of Mayar International Industry.
In a Tadawul statement, the company said that the financial consideration for the transaction depends on the results of the financial evaluation and due diligence.
The company added that the transaction will be financed through Molan Steel’s cash flows and resources.
According to the statement, the acquisition will be subject to a number of regulatory approvals including relevant authorities in the Kingdom.
Molan Steel Co.’s share price increased by 2.84 percent to SR3.26.
Saudi Arabia’s Tabuk targets development with over $67m investment deals
JEDDAH: Investment contracts worth SR252 million ($67.2 million) have been signed to boost Saudi Arabia’s Tabuk region, focusing on healthcare, logistics, housing, entertainment, and education to spur economic growth.
The agreements, finalized during a visit by Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majid Al-Hogail, are expected to stimulate the local economy while generating both direct and indirect employment opportunities, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
During his tour to the region, Al-Hogail held discussions with regional investors and business leaders, focusing on expanding opportunities in municipal and housing development.
The minister underscored the government’s commitment to fostering investments that align with the aspirations of Tabuk’s residents and contribute to Vision 2030’s broader economic goals.
The inspection visit included reviews of key infrastructure projects, including road upgrades, traffic system enhancements, and housing developments.
Al-Hogail emphasized the importance of ensuring high-quality services for residents and visitors, stressing that these initiatives are integral to achieving the ministry’s strategic objectives.
He also witnessed the delivery of 533 new housing units to beneficiaries of the Development Housing Program, a key initiative supporting low-income families in Saudi Arabia.
This latest distribution brings the total number of housing units delivered under the program to 2,479, highlighting the government’s commitment to addressing housing needs.
At the start of his tour, Al-Hogail met with municipal leaders and heads of municipalities to discuss progress on ongoing projects, emphasizing the need for continuous improvements in service delivery.
He also visited the Prince Fahd bin Sultan Promenade, where redesigned storefronts inspired by Tabuk’s heritage have transformed the area into a vibrant destination for locals and tourists.
Al-Hogail inaugurated a branch of the Real Estate Developer Services Center, Etmam, which streamlines government services for beneficiaries in one location. He engaged with citizens to gather feedback and suggestions for further enhancing municipal services in the region.
The visit coincided with the announcement by the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing’s investment arm, the National Housing Co., of 11 new residential projects in Khuzam, north of Riyadh. These developments, featuring over 10,000 modern-designed units, are aimed at achieving the Kingdom’s homeownership goals.
This visit is part of a series of inspections the minister is conducting across Saudi Arabia to oversee municipal and housing sector initiatives, review ongoing projects, and ensure their progress aligns with Vision 2030’s transformative goals.
Pakistan Stock Exchange crosses 96,000 to hit record intraday high
- Higher remittances, exports, foreign investment credited for bullish activity, analysts say
- Stock Exchange witnessing bullish trend since government slashed policy rate this month
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange on Tuesday surged past 96,000 points to hit a record high in intraday trading, with analysts attributing the rally to a current account surplus in October due to higher remittances, exports and foreign direct investment.
The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed to a record 935.66 points or 0.98 percent to stand at 95,931.33 from the previous close of 94,995.67 points. It touched the 96,036.48 mark for the first time at 2:44pm PST.
Ahsan Mehanti at the Arif Habib Corporation told Arab News potential investors had weighed surging foreign reserves as well as government decisions over reforms for loss-making state-owned enterprises, independent power producers and energy pricing.
“Stocks bullish on reports of current account surplus of $349 million in Oct. 2024 on higher remittances, exports and FDI rising by 32pc to $904m for Jul-Oct. 2024,” he said. “The next triggers could be easing political noise amid protest calls by opposition.”
Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments.
A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.
A bullish trend has been observed at the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. It’s economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
Before this, the country went through a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation.
Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-gasp $3 billion IMF bailout deal.
