PARIS: Once-a-century rains that have pounded the Indian state of Kerala and displaced 1.3 million people are in line with the predictions of climate scientists, who warn that worse is to come if global warming continues unabated.
The monsoon rains upon which farmers in the southwestern state depend for their food and livelihoods dumped two-and-a-half times the normal amount of water across the state last week, according to Indian meteorologists.
It is difficult to attribute any single extreme weather event — such as the Kerala flooding — to climate change, said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pashan, near Mumbai.
At the same time, “our recent research shows a three-fold increase in widespread extreme rains during 1950-2017, leading to large-scale flooding,” he told AFP.
Across India, flooding caused by heavy monsoons rainfall claimed 69,000 lives and left 17 million people without homes over the same period, according to a study he co-authored, published last year in Nature Communications.
In Kerala, all major reservoirs were brimming with rainwater by Aug. 10, forcing local authorities to open the sluice gates on the Idukki Dam for the first time in 26 years.
“These floods that we are seeing in Kerala right now are basically in line with climate projections,” said Kira Vinke, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“If we continue with current levels of emissions — which is not unlikely — we will have unmanageable risks,” she told AFP.
The weather patterns behind these destructive downpours are well understood, even if the fingerprint of global warming is still hard to distinguish from what scientists call “natural variability.”
Rapid warming in the Arabian Sea and nearby landmass causes monsoon winds to fluctuate and intensify for short spans of three-to-four days, Koll explained.
During those periods, moisture from the Arabian Sea is dumped inland.
“Over the last decade, due to climate change, the overheating of landmass leads to the intensification of monsoon rainfalls in central and southern India,” said monsoon expert Elena Surovyatkina, a professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and a senior scientist at PIK.
The changes observed so far have occurred after an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature of only one degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
On current trends, India’s average annual temperatures are set to rise 1.5 C to 3 C compared to that benchmark by mid-century, according to a World Bank report entitled “South Asia’s Hotspots.”
“If no corrective measures are taken, changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures will cost India 2.8 percent of its GDP and will drag down living standards of half its population by 2050,” the World Bank said in a statement.
The 196-nation Paris climate treaty calls for capping global warming at “well below” 2 C (3.6 F), and 1.5 C if possible.
But voluntary national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, even if respected, would still see temperatures rise at least 3 C.
Flooding is not the only problem India’s burgeoning — and highly vulnerable — population will face as a consequence of global warming.
“What we will see with climate change in India is that the wet season is going to be wetter and the dry season drier,” said Vinki.
“Already we are observing that the monsoon is becoming harder to predict with traditional methods.”
If manmade carbon emissions continue unabated, some regions in northeast India could literally become unlivable by the end of the century due to a deadly combination of heat and humidity during heatwaves, recent research has projected.
Indeed, large swathes of South Asia, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin, could approach the threshold for survivability outdoors.
Coastal cities, meanwhile, are especially vulnerable to sea level rise, driven by melting ice sheets and expanding ocean water, on the one hand, and subsidence due to over-development and the depletion of water tables, on the other.
India’s devastating rains match climate change forecasts
India’s devastating rains match climate change forecasts
- More than 1.3 million people have now packed into temporary camps
- Experts say Indian governments want to prove they can handle any emergency themselves
Why has ethnic violence escalated in India’s Manipur state again?
- On May 3, 2023, members of the Kuki and Naga tribes launched protest against extension of benefits to dominant Meiteis
- Latest violence flared this month after 31-year-old woman from Kuki tribe was found burned to death in a village in Jiribam district
Hundreds of people defied a curfew to stage demonstrations in India’s northeastern state of Manipur over the weekend and 23 were arrested for violence as tensions between two ethnic communities flared up again.
These are the reasons behind the violence in the border state.
HOW DID THE MANIPUR VIOLENCE BEGIN?
On May 3, 2023, members of the Kuki and Naga tribes, who inhabit Manipur’s hills and are regarded as Scheduled Tribes, or India’s most disadvantaged groups, launched a protest against the possible extension of their benefits to the dominant Meiteis.
The Meitei have sought special benefits for more than a decade, but received a fillip in April last year after the Manipur High Court recommended the state government should consider the demand and set a deadline of mid-May.
Meiteis account for half of Manipur’s population and extending limited affirmative action quotas to them would mean they would get a share of education and government jobs reserved for Kukis and Nagas.
Meiteis have traditionally lived in Manipur’s more prosperous valley region that makes up 10 percent of the state’s area.
They have also had better access to employment and economic opportunities. Nagas and Kukis live in the poorly developed hill regions.
The imbalance in development that has favored the valley over the hills has been a point of contention and rivalry between the ethnic groups.
WHAT WERE THE TRIGGERS?
The groups co-existed peacefully until unrelated events in 2023 exposed old faultlines.
Manipur shares a nearly 400-km (250-mile) border with Myanmar and the coup there in 2021 pushed thousands of refugees into the Indian state.
Kukis share ethnic lineage with Myanmar’s Chin tribe and Meiteis feared they would be outnumbered by the arrival of the refugees.
WHY IS PEACE YET TO RETURN?
Both the Meiteis and Kukis are known to be flush with arms, including automatic weapons either stolen from the state police or sourced from Myanmar.
The Indian Army and federal paramilitary forces in the state cannot act independently and are legally bound to work with state police and authorities, who analysts say are also divided along ethnic lines.
Kukis also accuse Biren Singh, the chief minister of the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled state and a Meitei, of complicity in violence against them and have sought his removal. Singh denies the accusations.
WHAT IS BEHIND THE LATEST SPIRAL OF VIOLENCE?
The latest violence flared this month after a 31-year-old Kuki woman was found burned to death in a village in Jiribam district, an area that was untouched by the conflict until June.
Kuki groups blamed Meitei militants for the act.
Kukis and Meiteis have moved to separate parts elsewhere in Manipur since the clashes last year but Jiribam still has a mixed population, leading to tensions and violence.
Days after the incident, 10 armed Kuki men were killed in a gunfight with security forces after they tried to attack a police station in Jiribam district, and security forces retaliated. During this gunfight, a Meitei family of six people went missing.
On Friday, bodies of three of the six were found floating in a river, triggering angry protests in the state capital Imphal. Police said on Sunday they had arrested 23 people for ransacking and setting fire to the homes of lawmakers and ministers, in a second straight day of unrest in the area.
Emergency declared as smog in New Delhi hits highest level this year
- New Delhi was the world’s most polluted city on Monday, according to IQAir
- PM 2.5 concentration was 138.4 times higher than WHO’s recommended levels
NEW DELHI: New Delhi was in a medical emergency on Monday as toxic smog engulfing the Indian capital reached the highest level this year, prompting authorities to close schools and urge people to stay indoors.
Pollution in Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area — home to around 55 million people — reached the “severe plus” category as some areas reached an Air Quality Index score of 484, this year’s highest, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
On the AQI scale from 0 to 500, good air quality is represented by levels below 50, while levels above 300 are dangerous.
Delhi was ranked as the most polluted city in the world on Monday by Swiss group IQAir, with a concentration of PM 2.5, 138.4 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended levels.
“All of North India has been plunged into a medical emergency,” Delhi Chief Minister Atishi Marlena Singh said in a press conference, adding that many cities were “reeling under severe levels of pollution.”
She said farm fires, where stubble left after harvesting rice is burnt to clear fields, were causing the extreme levels of pollution.
“Why is the (central government) not taking action against these states and implementing concrete steps? People are unable to breathe. I am getting calls from people complaining about breathing and respiratory issues,” she said.
“All of North India is paying the price for this, especially children and elderly who are struggling to breathe.”
Authorities in Delhi have directed all schools to move classes online and tightened restrictions on construction activities and vehicle movements.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at forecast company Skymet Weather, said people in the capital region are faced with serious health risks.
“If they are non-smokers, then they will also inhale at least 30 to 40 cigarettes per day (at these pollution levels). So, you can imagine how bad it is for our health,” he told Arab News.
“PM 2.5 is a very minute particle (that can be inhaled). It is so minute that it can go into our blood vessels also, so it is very harmful and leads to various diseases, particularly for older people and infants who have breathing problems.”
Palawat is expecting the air quality to remain at this level for at least a few more days.
“It will remain in the very poor to serious category in coming days also,” he said.
Emergency declared in New Delhi as smog hits highest level this year
- New Delhi was the world’s most polluted city on Monday, according to IQAir
- PM 2.5 concentration was 138.4 times higher than WHO’s recommended levels
New Delhi: New Delhi was in a state of ‘medical emergency’ on Monday as toxic smog engulfing the Indian capital reached the highest levels this year, prompting authorities to close schools and urge people to stay indoors.
Pollution in Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area — home to around 55 million people — reached the “severe plus” category as some areas reached an Air Quality Index score of 484, this year’s highest, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
On the AQI scale from 0 to 500, good air quality is represented by levels below 50, while levels above 300 are dangerous.
Delhi was ranked as the most polluted city in the world on Monday by Swiss group IQAir, with a concentration of PM 2.5, 138.4 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended levels.
“All of North India has been plunged into a medical emergency,” Delhi Chief Minister Atishi Marlena Singh said in a press conference, adding that many cities were “reeling under severe levels of pollution.”
She said farm fires, where stubble left after harvesting rice is burnt to clear fields, were causing extreme levels of pollution.
“Why is the (central government) not taking action against these states and implementing concrete steps? People are unable to breathe. I am getting calls from people complaining about breathing and respiratory issues,” she said.
“All of North India is paying the price for this, especially children and elderly who are struggling to breathe.”
Authorities in Delhi have directed all schools to move classes online and tightened restrictions on construction activities and vehicle movements.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at forecast company Skymet Weather, said people in the capital region are faced with serious health risks.
“If they are non-smokers, then they will also inhale at least 30 to 40 cigarettes per day (at these pollution levels). So, you can imagine how bad it is for our health,” he told Arab News.
“PM 2.5 is a very minute particle (that can be inhaled). It is so minute that it can go into our blood vessels also, so it is very harmful and leads to various diseases, particularly for older people and infants who have breathing problems.”
Palawat is expecting the air quality to remain at this level for at least a few more days.
“It will remain in the very poor to serious category in coming days also,” he said.
Palestinian NGO to ask UK court to block F-35 parts to Israel over Gaza war
- West Bank-based Al-Haq is taking legal action against Britain’s Department for Business and Trade at London’s High Court
LONDON: Britain is allowing parts for F-35 fighter jets to be exported to Israel despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, lawyers for a Palestinian rights group told a London court on Monday.
West Bank-based Al-Haq, which documents alleged rights violations by Israel and the Palestinian Authority, is taking legal action against Britain’s Department for Business and Trade at London’s High Court.
Israel has been accused of violations of international humanitarian law in the Gaza war, with the UN Human Rights Office saying nearly 70 percent of fatalities it has verified were women and children, a report Israel rejected.
Israel says it takes care to avoid harming civilians and denies committing abuses and war crimes in the conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Al-Haq’s case comes after Britain in September suspended 30 of 350 arms export licenses, though it exempted the indirect export of F-35 parts, citing the impact on the global F-35 program.
Al-Haq argues that decision was unlawful as there is a clear risk F-35s could be used in breach of international humanitarian law.
British government lawyers said in documents for Monday’s hearing that ministers assessed Israel had committed possible breaches of international humanitarian law (IHL) in relation to humanitarian access and the treatment of detainees.
Britain also “accepts that there is clear risk that F-35 components might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of IHL,” its lawyer James Eadie said.
Eadie added that Britain had nonetheless decided that F-35 components should still be exported, quoting from advice to defense minister John Healey that suspending F-35 parts “would have a profound impact on international peace and security.”
A full hearing of Al-Haq’s legal challenge is likely to be heard early in 2025.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 43,800 people have been confirmed killed since the war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023.
Hamas militants killed around 1,200 people in attacks on communities in southern Israel that day, and hold dozens of some 250 hostages they took back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
Sri Lanka’s left-leaning president swears in new Cabinet after election victory
- Harini Amarasuriya, first woman to head Sri Lankan government, reappointed as PM
- National People’s Power alliance won two-thirds majority in the 225-member parliament
COLOMBO: Sri Lanka’s new left-leaning president swore in on Monday a 22-member Cabinet after his party coalition secured a landslide victory in a snap parliamentary vote last week.
The alliance of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the National People’s Power, secured 159 seats in the 225-member assembly, giving the new leader a mandate to fulfill his campaign promises of sweeping reforms, including to fight poverty and corruption.
The crisis-hit island nation is still struggling to emerge from the worst economic crisis in its history, after declaring bankruptcy and defaulting on its external debt in 2022.
Dissanayake reappointed Harini Amarasuriya as prime minister and lawmaker Vijitha Herath to helm the foreign affairs, foreign employment and tourism ministries, while the president himself retained the posts of defense and finance minister.
“This power we gained is accountable. To whom? On one hand, it is accountable to the public, and on the other hand, to the movement,” Dissanayake told the new Cabinet after the swearing-in ceremony, referring to his alliance’s aim to create a people-centered national movement.
“We had a lot of good aims. We worked to gain power for that. We struggled a lot … The huge the victory we achieved, the heavier our responsibility,” he said. “Let’s work together to achieve the results our people deserve.”
When Dissanayake won the presidential vote in September, the NPP coalition only had three seats in parliament, prompting him to dissolve it and call for a snap election that took place on Thursday, a year ahead of schedule.
His new, fully-formed Cabinet will govern Sri Lanka after austerity measures imposed by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe — part of a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund — led to price hikes in food and fuel and caused hardship to millions of Sri Lankans.
During his campaign, Dissanayake said he planned to renegotiate the targets set in the IMF deal to alleviate the burden placed on ordinary people. A team from the fund is in Colombo this week to review the reform program.
More than half of former lawmakers chose not to run for re-election. No contenders were seen from the powerful Rajapaksa family, including former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother Gotabaya, also a former president, who was ousted in 2022 and largely blamed for the crisis.
Thursday’s election saw the United People’s Power of Sajith Premadasa retain its role from the previous parliament as the largest opposition party, winning 40 seats.
Sri Lanka People’s Front, the party loyal to the Rajapaksa family, secured only three seats in the new parliament.
