BEIRUT: The Syrian regime and its Russian ally are threatening an offensive to retake the northwestern province of Idlib, Syria’s last rebel bastion, where extremist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham holds sway.
The extremist alliance, the core of which is formed by the former Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, is likely to be the regime’s toughest foe.
Here is some background.
HTS first appeared in Syria in January 2012 as the Al-Nusra Front, and Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Russian ally still refer to the extremist group by that name.
Classified as a “terrorist” group by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, it arrived in Syria as an extension of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The group’s current leader, a Syrian who uses the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, is a veteran of fighting in Iraq.
In 2013, the group swore allegiance to Al-Qaeda before splitting with the global extremist syndicate in July 2016 and renaming itself the Fatah Al-Sham Front.
In 2017, it dissolved that group to form the backbone of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.
The group mainly consists of Syrian extremists, estimated at about 30,000 fighters, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The extremists are “well organized and battle-hardened,” said Syria expert Fabrice Balanche.
“HTS definitely retains a sizeable foreign fighter component, perhaps comprising at least 20 percent of its total fighting force,” said Charles Lister, an analyst at the Middle East Institute.
The fighters are mostly from the Middle East, “but also from Russian-speaking areas, Europe and south Asia,” he added.
HTS now controls nearly 60 percent of Idlib province.
It has set up a civil administration that collects customs duties at the border with Turkey and imposes taxes on traders.
The group “derives so much of its power from being the authority over how trade flows into and out of Idlib, which helps fund the group and gives it power beyond its size,” said Nicholas Heras, a researcher at the Center for New American Security.
Previously, HTS had a presence in many of the country’s rebel-held areas, especially near Damascus and in the south. But it has lost that territory as its fighters were evacuated to Idlib in surrender deals.
HTS has consistently been excluded from cease-fires negotiated by the United Nations or Russia.
The extremist alliance has been the target of air raids from both Moscow and the US-led anti-extremist coalition, which have killed several of its senior commanders.
Formerly associated with influential Islamist rebel groups like Ahrar Al-Sham and Nureddine Al-Zinki, HTS underwent a bloody period of power struggles in 2017 that included battles with former allies, creating resentment that persists today.
In early 2018, Ahrar Al-Sham and Nureddine Al-Zinki announced their Turkey-backed merger to counter the growing power of HTS.
They joined four other rebel factions in early August to form a new coalition — the National Liberation Front.
Separately, HTS has increased raids in recent weeks against “sleeper cells” linked to the Daesh, which has claimed responsibility for assassinations and bombings targeting HTS’s leaders and fighters.
The two extremist heavyweights have also clashed in Syria’s northern city of Raqqa and in eastern Deir Ezzor province.
In July 2014, Nusra’s chief said the group’s goal was to set up an “Islamic emirate,” akin to the “caliphate” proclaimed by Daesh shortly beforehand.
On August 22 the reclusive Jolani broke a long silence to reiterate that the group was determined to repel any offensive by Damascus.
“Just thinking about surrendering to the enemy and handing over weapons is an act of treason,” he said.
Russia has called for the dissolution of HTS, but neighboring Turkey is trying to negotiate a solution with the extremists to avoid a large scale offensive that would destabilize the border area, the Britain-based Observatory said.
According to Heras, the extremist alliance’s “dissolution on the command of Turkey would rob it of much of its power, which would replace HTS rule with Turkish rule.”
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham: Syria regime’s toughest foe in Idlib
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham: Syria regime’s toughest foe in Idlib
- The extremist alliance, the core of which is formed by the former Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, is likely to be the regime’s toughest foe
- HTS now controls nearly 60 percent of Idlib province
Lebanon army says Israeli attack kills 2 soldiers
- “The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Mari in the Hasbaya area
BEIRUT: The Lebanese army said an Israeli attack on Sunday killed two soldiers, accusing Israel of directly targeting their position in south Lebanon where the Israeli military is fighting Hezbollah.
“The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Mari in the Hasbaya area, causing “the death of one of the soldiers and the wounding of three others, one of whom is in critical condition,” the army said in a statement.
A separate statement shortly afterwards said “a second soldier” had died of his wounds.
Israeli fire has killed more than a dozen Lebanese soldiers since all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group erupted in September, according to an AFP tally of official announcements.
Egypt’s middle class cuts costs as IMF-backed reforms take hold
- The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies
Cairo: Egypt’s economy has been in crisis for years, but as the latest round of International Monetary Fund-backed reforms bites, much of the country’s middle class has found itself struggling to afford goods once considered basics.
The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies.
On the ground, that has translated into an eroding middle class with depleted purchasing power, turning into luxuries what were once considered necessities.
Nourhan Khaled, a 27-year-old private sector employee, has given up “perfumes and chocolates.”
“All my salary goes to transport and food,” she said as she perused items at a west Cairo supermarket, deciding what could stay and what needed to go.
For some, this has extended to cutting back on even the most basic goods — such as milk.
“We do not buy sweets anymore and we’ve cut down on milk,” said Zeinab Gamal, a 28-year-old housewife.
Most recently, Egypt hiked fuel prices by 17.5 percent last month, marking the third increase just this year.
Mounting pressures
The measures are among the conditions for an $8 billion IMF loan program, expanded this year from an initial $3 billion to address a severe economic crisis in the North African country.
“The lifestyle I grew up with has completely changed,” said Manar, a 38-year-old mother of two, who did not wish to give her full name.
She has taken on a part-time teaching job to increase her family’s income to 15,000 Egyptian pounds ($304), just so she can “afford luxuries like sports activities for their children.”
Her family has even trimmed their budget for meat, reducing their consumption from four times to “only two times per week.”
Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, is facing one of its worst economic crises ever.
Foreign debt quadrupled since 2015 to register $160.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Much of the debt is the result of financing for large-scale projects, including a new capital east of Cairo.
The war in Gaza has also worsened the country’s economic situation.
Repeated attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza have resulted in Egypt’s vital Suez Canal — a key source of foreign currency — losing over 70 percent of its revenue this year.
Amid growing public frustration, officials have recently signalled a potential re-evaluation of the IMF program.
“If these challenges will make us put unbearable pressure on public opinion, then the situation must be reviewed with the IMF,” President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said last month.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also ruled out any new financial burdens on Egyptians “in the coming period,” without specifying a timeframe.
Economists, however, say the reforms are already taking a toll.
Wael Gamal, director of the social justice unit at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, said they led to “a significant erosion in people’s living conditions” as prices of medicine, services and transportation soared.
He believes the IMF program could be implemented “over a longer period and in a more gradual manner.”
’Bitter pill to swallow’
Egypt has been here before. In 2016, a three-year $12-billion loan program brought sweeping reforms, kicking off the first of a series of currency devaluations that have decimated the Egyptian pound’s value over the years.
Egypt’s poverty rate stood at 29.7 percent in 2020, down slightly from 32.5 percent the previous year in 2019, according to the latest statistics by the country’s CAPMAS agency.
But Gamal said the current IMF-backed reforms have had a “more intense” effect on people.
“Two years ago, we had no trouble affording basics,” said Manar.
“Now, I think twice before buying essentials like food and clothing,” she added.
Earlier this month, the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva touted the program’s long-term impact, saying Egyptians “will see the benefits of these reforms in a more dynamic, more prosperous Egyptian economy.”
Her remarks came as the IMF began a delayed review of its loan program, which could unlock $1.2 billion in new financing for Egypt.
Economist and capital market specialist Wael El-Nahas described the loan as a “bitter pill to swallow,” but called it “a crucial tool” forcing the government to make “systematic” decisions.
Still, many remain skeptical.
“The government’s promises have never proven true,” Manar said.
Egyptian expatriates send about $30 billion in remittances per year, a major source of foreign currency.
Manar relies on her brother abroad for essentials, including instant coffee which now costs 400 Egyptian pounds (about $8) per jar.
“All I can think about now is what we will do if there are more price increases in the future,” she said.
Iraq blast kills three security personnel: officials
A blast from an explosive device on Sunday killed three members of Iraq’s security forces and wounded three others in the northern province of Salaheddin, officials said.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack in Tuz Khurmatu, which borders a province plagued by sporadic jihadist attacks.
Iraq declared victory over the Daesh group in late 2017, but its jihadists remain active in the country, particularly in rural areas.
Sunday’s blast killed an army regiment commander, another officer and a security service member, said Zulfiqar Al-Bayati, mayor of Tuz Khurmatu.
A security official confirmed the death toll to AFP, adding the victims had been in a vehicle when the explosion occurred.
Those killed were members of the Peshmerga forces of the autonomous northern region of Kurdistan, while the wounded were members from the Iraqi army.
The Iraqi defense ministry paid tribute to the three soldiers who “fell as martyrs... while carrying out their duty.”
The Daesh group overran large swathes of Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014, proclaiming its “caliphate” and launching a reign of terror.
It was defeated in Iraq in 2017 by Iraqi forces backed by a US-led military coalition, and in 2019 lost the last territory it held in Syria to US-backed Kurdish forces.
A report by United Nations experts published in July estimated there were around 1,500 to 3,000 jihadists remaining in Iraq and Syria.
Gaza civil defense says 30 dead after Israeli air strike
- The Gaza health ministry said 43,799 people have been confirmed dead since Oct. 7, 2023
GAZA: Gaza’s civil defense agency said 30 people were killed on Sunday, including children, and dozens were missing after an Israeli air strike hit a building in the Palestinian territory’s north.
Israel’s army told AFP that it had conducted overnight strikes and hit “terrorist targets” in the area.
After the strike early Sunday, 30 bodies were pulled from the rubble of the five-story residential building in Beit Lahia, “including children and women,” civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP, updating a previous figure of 26.
Seven people were injured, Bassal added. Earlier on Sunday he said at least 59 people were missing.
“The chances of rescuing more wounded are decreasing because of the continuous shooting and artillery shelling,” Bassal said.
AFP images showed men covered in dust scrambling to reach people under the rubble, as some of the bodies were taken away on a donkey-pulled cart.
Other AFP images showed the flattened building with broken concrete and twisted metal sticking out from the ruins as more bodies covered in blankets lay nearby.
Vowing to stop Hamas militants from regrouping in already ravaged north Gaza, Israel on October 6 began a major air and ground assault that began in Jabalia and then expanded to Beit Lahia.
Israel’s army said there were “ongoing terrorist activities in the area of Beit Lahia,” adding: “Overnight, several strikes were conducted on terrorist targets in the area.”
“We emphasize that there have been continuous efforts to evacuate the civilian population from the active war zone in the area,” the ministry said in a statement.
Hamas, which runs the territory, accused Israel of committing a “massacre” which it said is “a continuation of the genocidal war and revenge against unarmed civilians.”
Palestinian presidency spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh condemned the United States, Israel’s biggest supporter, for “enabling this continued bloodshed.”
In a statement issued from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, he also demanded that “the United States force Israel to stop its aggression and comply with international law.”
The Palestinian foreign ministry urged the international community to act to “immediately halt these atrocities.”
Earlier on Sunday, Gaza’s civil defense said other Israeli strikes killed at least 20 people, including four women and three children, across the war-torn territory.
Gaza’s health ministry on Sunday said the overall death toll in more than 13 months of war had reached 43,846.
The majority of the dead are civilians, according to ministry figures, which the United Nations considers reliable.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Hezbollah spokesman killed in Israel strike on Beirut
- “The strike on Ras Al-Nabaa killed Hezbollah media relations official Mohammed Afif,” the security source said
- Ali Hijazi, secretary-general of the Lebanese branch of the Baath party, “confirmed the death of Hezbollah media official” Afif
BEIRUT: A Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in an Israeli strike Sunday in central Beirut that hit the Lebanese branch of the Syrian Baath party.
“The strike on Ras Al-Nabaa killed Hezbollah media relations official Mohammed Afif,” the security source said, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to brief the media.
Ali Hijazi, secretary-general of the Lebanese branch of the Baath party, “confirmed the death of Hezbollah media official” Afif, the official National News Agency reported.
The Israeli army declined to comment.
Lebanon’s health ministry said the strike killed one person and wounded three others, adding that the toll was provisional and that work was ongoing to remove rubble from the site of the strike.
Afif for years had been responsible for Hezbollah’s media relations, and provided information to local and foreign journalists under the cover of anonymity.
The NNA said the strike by “enemy aircraft” caused “great destruction,” reporting an unspecified number of people “trapped under the rubble” in Ras Al-Nabaa, an area near the French embassy and a university.
It said “one of the residents of a neighboring building had received a warning call urging evacuation but it was not taken seriously.”
Since the assassination in late September of longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a huge Israeli strike, Afif had held several press conferences in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
In one such event last month, Afif announced that Hezbollah had launched a drone targeting the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
That press conference was cut short when the Israeli army warned it would strike a building nearby.
