DUBAI: Four months after Lebanon’s general election, any hopes Prime Minister-elect Saad Al-Hariri held of easing his way into office have been dashed following warnings of a crippling political stalemate in government and claims the country is facing economic collapse.
With a cabinet yet to be formed, Hariri heads into the fall all but powerless to address the economic decline — a situation some observers have described as a “vicious circle.”
This summer, Moody’s, the global rating agency, gave Lebanon’s economy a “Low (+)” grading due to “the deterioration in the regional economic and political environment.”
An article in The Economist magazine late last week was even more downbeat, saying Lebanon’s economy was on the brink of collapse.
“Since 2011, the lack of investment in infrastructure and the absence of economic reforms have weakened the country’s competitiveness, and would likely prevent Lebanon from returning to previously high real GDP growth, even if political risks were to subside,” the Moody’s report said.
While reports suggested the economy is facing a full-blown crisis, government officials believe that the country is not there yet.
“We’re passing through challenging times,” former Lebanese minster of finance Raya Al-Hassan told Arab News. “We’re in a huge slump. All the economic indicators point to a downturn in economic activity. All the real economy sectors are suffering and witnessing a downturn.
“We are in some sort of a recession. A lot of these sectors are not growing; growth is not registering beyond 2 percent annually, and if this situation persists, it will create a vicious circle that will be hard to break,” she said.
Political instability and sectarian strife have plagued Lebanon for years, with a decades-long civil war and the assassination of several of its leaders, including Hariri’s father, Rafic Hariri.
Recently, attempts to form a government have been deadlocked since Hezbollah and its political allies have secured a cabinet majority of more than 70 of the 128 seats during this year’s parliamentary elections at the expense of Hariri’s Future Movement.
Currently, there are 30 ministerial positions that are split equally among Christians and Muslims at 15 each, with further splitting among sects within these two main religions. And with no clear criteria on how these ministries will be allocated, the stalemate between political parties and representatives over the allocation of power could well continue until the end of the year.
“It’s an internal problem that has to do with holding power … in principle they (political parties) are asking for such power because they think they deserve it after they did well in the elections, but this is not the real reason,” political analyst Amine Ammouriyye said.
Ammouriyye believes the main factor “is the decision from outside Lebanon. For example, Hezbollah, who won the elections, now has the chance to opt for better relations with Syria and is among those asking for more formal relations than before,” he said.
“Internally, it’s all about power and, externally, it’s about the negotiation with Syria,” he said.
With politicians and foreign powers unable to put their agendas aside, Lebanon’s economy continues to falter, a downward spiral that was brought on by the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Economic growth plummeted from a solid 9 percent at the time and has hovered around 1.1 percent for the past three years. Public debt stands at $82 billion, equivalent to 150 percent of gross domestic product, the third-highest world-wide after Japan and Greece.
At the Economic Conference for Development through Reforms with the Private Sector (CEDRE) in Paris in the spring, international donors pledged $11 billion to boost the economy, with a focus on improving Lebanon’s ailing infrastructure. In exchange, Lebanon promised reforms, including tougher measures to fight corruption and reduce budget deficits.
“The lifeline presented to us is a real opportunity to come out of this slump,” Al-Hassan said.
But if the government is formed and the reforms are not taken, it will be “harder and harder for the Lebanese economy to come out of the dire situation it is in now.
“This will result in huge unemployment if we don’t address it as soon as possible,” the former minister said.
“We are reaching a new milestone,” she said.
Lebanon: Between a political rock and an economic hard place
Lebanon: Between a political rock and an economic hard place
- Hariri heads into the fall all but powerless to address the economic decline
- Attempts to form a government have been deadlocked since Hezbollah and its allies have secured a cabinet majority
Weakened Iran could pursue nuclear weapon, White House’s Sullivan says
Iran has suffered setbacks to its regional influence after Israel’s assaults on its allies, Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, followed by the fall of Iran-aligned Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Tehran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN.
“It’s no wonder there are voices (in Iran) saying, ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now ... Maybe we have to revisit our nuclear doctrine’,” Sullivan said.
Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has expanded uranium enrichment since Trump, in his 2017-2021 presidential term, pulled out of a deal between Tehran and world powers that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sullivan said that there was a risk that Iran might abandon its promise not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on,” Sullivan said, adding that he had also consulted with US ally Israel.
Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, could return to his hard-line Iran policy by stepping up sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. Sullivan said Trump would have an opportunity to pursue diplomacy with Tehran, given Iran’s “weakened state.”
“Maybe he can come around this time, with the situation Iran finds itself in, and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear ambitions for the long term,” he said.
Netanyahu says Israel will continue to act against the Houthis
- On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen
- Response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by Houthis since start of Gaza war
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday Israel would continue acting against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whom he accused of threatening world shipping and the international order, and called on Israelis to be steadfast.
“Just as we acted forcefully against the terrorist arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so we will act against the Houthis,” he said in a video statement a day after a missile fired from Yemen fell in the Tel Aviv area, causing a number of mild injuries.
On Thursday, Israeli jets launched a series of strikes against energy and port infrastructure in Yemen in a move officials said was a response to hundreds of missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthis since the start of the Gaza war 14 months ago.
On Saturday, the US military said it conducted precision airstrikes against a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility operated by Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.
Netanyahu, strengthened at home by the Israeli military’s campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and by its destruction of most of the Syrian army’s strategic weapons, said Israel would act with the United States.
“Therefore, we will act with strength, determination and sophistication. I tell you that even if it takes time, the result will be the same,” he said.
The Houthis have launched repeated attacks on international shipping in waters near Yemen since November 2023, in support of the Palestinians over Israel’s war with Hamas.
Iraq PM says Mosul airport to open in June, 11 years after Daesh capture
- On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul
BAGHDAD: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on Sunday ordered for the inauguration of the airport in second city Mosul to be held in June, marking 11 years since Islamists took over the city.
On June 10, 2014, the Daesh group seized Mosul, declaring its “caliphate” from there 19 days later after capturing large swathes of Iraq and neighboring Syria.
After years of fierce battles, Iraqi forces backed by a US-led international coalition dislodged the group from Mosul in July 2017, before declaring its defeat across the country at the end of that year.
In a Sunday statement, Sudani’s office said the premier directed during a visit there “for the airport’s opening to be on June 10, coinciding with the anniversary of Mosul’s occupation, as a message of defiance in the face of terrorism.”
Over 80 percent of the airport’s runway and terminals have been completed, according to the statement.
Mosul’s airport had been completely destroyed in the fighting.
In August 2022, then-prime minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi laid the foundation stone for the airport’s reconstruction.
Sudani’s office also announced on Sunday the launch of a project to rehabilitate the western bank of the Tigris in Mosul, affirming that “Iraq is secure and stable and on the right path.”
Turkiye’s top diplomat meets Syria’s new leader in Damascus
- Hakan Fidan had announced on Friday that he planned to travel to Damascus to meet Syria’s new leaders
- Turkiye’s spy chief Ibrahim Kalin had earlier visited the city on December 12, just a few days after Bashar Assad’s fall
ANKARA: Turkiye’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan met with Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus on Sunday, Ankara’s foreign ministry said.
A video released by the Anadolu state news agency showed the two men greeting each other.
No details of where the meeting took place in the Syrian capital were released by the ministry.
Fidan had announced on Friday that he planned to travel to Damascus to meet Syria’s new leaders, who ousted Syria’s strongman Bashar Assad after a lightning offensive.
Turkiye’s spy chief Ibrahim Kalin had earlier visited the city on December 12, just a few days after Assad’s fall.
Kalin was filmed leaving the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, surrounded by bodyguards, as broadcast by the private Turkish channel NTV.
Turkiye has been a key backer of the opposition to Assad since the uprising against his rule began in 2011.
Besides supporting various militant groups, it has welcomed Syrian dissenters and millions of refugees.
However, Fidan has rejected claims by US president-elect Donald Trump that the militants’ victory in Syria constituted an “unfriendly takeover” of the country by Turkiye.
International sanctions on Damascus must be lifted “as soon as possible” to allow Syria to get back on its feet and refugees to return home, Fidan said.
“The sanctions imposed on the previous regime need to be lifted as soon as possible,” he said, adding: “The international community needs to mobilize to help Syria get back on its feet and for the displaced people to return.”
During a joint press conference, Al-Sharaa said that all weapons in the country would come under state control including those held by Kurdish-led forces.
Armed “factions will begin to announce their dissolution and enter” the army, Sharaa said during a press conference with Fidan, adding “we will absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control, whether from the revolutionary factions or the factions present in the SDF area,” referring to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
Syria alone was responsible for overthrowing Bashar Assad, Fidan also said.
“This victory belongs to you and no one else. Thanks to your sacrifices, Syria has seized a historic opportunity,” he said. Turkiye has repeatedly dismissed claims it had any hand in the lightning 12-day rebel offensive that ended with Assad’s overthrow on December 8.
Druze leader Jumblatt paves way for Lebanese-Syrian relationship without Assad
- Ahmed Al-Sharaa: ‘Syria’s interference in Lebanese affairs was negative’ in the past
- Walid Jumblatt said Assad’s ouster should usher in new constructive relations between Lebanon and Syria
BEIRUT: Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, vowed in a meeting in Damascus on Sunday not to negatively interfere in neighboring Lebanon.
A major political and religious delegation headed by prominent Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt met with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham leader Al-Sharaa at the People’s Palace.
This marks the first visit of a Lebanese political figure to Syria following the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime.
Al-Sharaa made a series of unprecedented statements about Lebanese-Syrian ties following decades of strained and sometimes bloody relations with the former Syrian regime.
Al-Sharaa said, “Syria was a source of concern and disturbance for Lebanon, and its interference in Lebanese affairs was negative,” adding that “the former Syrian regime killed Kamal Jumblatt, Bashir Gemayel, and Rafik Hariri.”
He emphasized that Syria, in its new era, would “stay at equal distance from everyone in Lebanon” and no longer engage in “negative interference in Lebanon.”
Al-Sharaa said that “Lebanon needs a strong economy and political stability that Syria will support” and called on the Lebanese to "erase from their memory the legacy of the old Syria in Lebanon.”
The international community was unable to solve the Syrian problem over 14 years, Al-Sharaa said.
“We took a different path because we believe that people can claim their rights by taking matters into their own hands only,” he added.
Commenting on Hezbollah’s years-long involvement in Syrian affairs in support of Assad’s regime, he said: “This is a new chapter with all components of the Lebanese people, regardless of previous stances.”
Jumblatt saluted the Syrian people for their “great victories and for getting rid of oppression and tyranny.”
He said: “We have a long way to go, and we are suffering from Israeli expansion, so I will present a memorandum on Lebanese-Syrian relations on behalf of the Democratic Gathering.”
Jumblatt believes that “the crimes committed against the Syrian people are similar to those committed in Gaza and Bosnia-Herzegovina and constitute crimes against humanity,” adding that “it is worth referring the matter” to international inquiries.
The delegation headed by Jumblatt included Sheikh Akl of the Unitarian Druze Community, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, Taymour Jumblatt, Druze MPs and religious figures.
Jumblatt said: “We hope that Lebanese-Syrian relations will return through the embassies and that all of those who committed crimes against the Lebanese will be held accountable.
“We also hope that fair trials will be held for all those who committed crimes against the Syrian people.”
Also on Sunday, the Lebanese Public Prosecution said that it received a telegram from the American judiciary regarding the arrest of Maj. Gen. Jamil Al-Hassan, director of administration for the Air Force Intelligence under the collapsed Assad regime.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that several officers from the Assad regime fled to Lebanon in the early hours following the collapse of the regime, utilizing illegal crossings managed by Hezbollah.
Those who entered Lebanese territory illegally included members of the Fourth Division, previously led by Maher Al-Assad, including officers of various ranks.
Security reports indicated that “several of them were apprehended while in possession of hundreds of thousands of dollars and quantities of gold, and the detainees were subsequently handed over to the Lebanese General Security.”
Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi confirmed last week that “some Syrian figures crossed overland into Lebanon, and some of them traveled via Beirut airport.”
He also said that photos of wanted Syrian officers had been disseminated to Lebanese air, sea, and land ports for their capture.
In a telegram circulated through Interpol, the US judiciary accuses Gen. Hassan of “war crimes, including genocide committed against the Syrian people by dropping explosive barrels.”
The international warrant has been disseminated to security services, which, as stated by a security source, are currently engaged in efforts to “ascertain whether Hassan is present in Beirut, in anticipation of his arrest and subsequent transfer to the judiciary.”
In a related incident on Sunday, unknown gunmen kidnapped Col. Ahmed Khair Beyk of the Syrian army on the Beirut Airport Road.
A security source linked the kidnapping to “drug and Captagon trafficking,” stating that “the perpetrators are a gang involved in the drug trade.”
Beyk had previously served as an aide to Brig. Gen. Ghassan Bilal in the Syrian army’s Fourth Division.
In other developments, the issue of detainees and opponents of the Syrian regime, held in Lebanese prisons for years, has resurfaced following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
Their families held a sit-in in downtown Beirut on Sunday to demand general amnesty.
The protesters called for “speeding up trials and releasing their sons, notably the religious leaders among them.”
The number of detainees stands at 350, including 180 Lebanese and 170 Syrians, many of whom were arrested for supporting the Syrian opposition and labeled as terrorists.
On the other side of the border, the Lebanese Red Cross received seven Lebanese citizens at the Naqoura crossing.
They had been kidnapped by Israeli forces that infiltrated Lebanese territory and subjected them to interrogation.
The Israeli army claimed through its spokesperson Avichay Adraee that the forces of the 188th Brigade uncovered a large Hezbollah combat complex that contained eight weapons depots above and below ground, connected through a network of underground tunnels.
Communication and electrical devices, anti-tank missiles aimed at northern Israeli towns, explosives, computers, and other items were found, said the spokesperson.
The complex was destroyed, and the weapons were seized.
