DUBAI: Four months after Lebanon’s general election, any hopes Prime Minister-elect Saad Al-Hariri held of easing his way into office have been dashed following warnings of a crippling political stalemate in government and claims the country is facing economic collapse.
With a cabinet yet to be formed, Hariri heads into the fall all but powerless to address the economic decline — a situation some observers have described as a “vicious circle.”
This summer, Moody’s, the global rating agency, gave Lebanon’s economy a “Low (+)” grading due to “the deterioration in the regional economic and political environment.”
An article in The Economist magazine late last week was even more downbeat, saying Lebanon’s economy was on the brink of collapse.
“Since 2011, the lack of investment in infrastructure and the absence of economic reforms have weakened the country’s competitiveness, and would likely prevent Lebanon from returning to previously high real GDP growth, even if political risks were to subside,” the Moody’s report said.
While reports suggested the economy is facing a full-blown crisis, government officials believe that the country is not there yet.
“We’re passing through challenging times,” former Lebanese minster of finance Raya Al-Hassan told Arab News. “We’re in a huge slump. All the economic indicators point to a downturn in economic activity. All the real economy sectors are suffering and witnessing a downturn.
“We are in some sort of a recession. A lot of these sectors are not growing; growth is not registering beyond 2 percent annually, and if this situation persists, it will create a vicious circle that will be hard to break,” she said.
Political instability and sectarian strife have plagued Lebanon for years, with a decades-long civil war and the assassination of several of its leaders, including Hariri’s father, Rafic Hariri.
Recently, attempts to form a government have been deadlocked since Hezbollah and its political allies have secured a cabinet majority of more than 70 of the 128 seats during this year’s parliamentary elections at the expense of Hariri’s Future Movement.
Currently, there are 30 ministerial positions that are split equally among Christians and Muslims at 15 each, with further splitting among sects within these two main religions. And with no clear criteria on how these ministries will be allocated, the stalemate between political parties and representatives over the allocation of power could well continue until the end of the year.
“It’s an internal problem that has to do with holding power … in principle they (political parties) are asking for such power because they think they deserve it after they did well in the elections, but this is not the real reason,” political analyst Amine Ammouriyye said.
Ammouriyye believes the main factor “is the decision from outside Lebanon. For example, Hezbollah, who won the elections, now has the chance to opt for better relations with Syria and is among those asking for more formal relations than before,” he said.
“Internally, it’s all about power and, externally, it’s about the negotiation with Syria,” he said.
With politicians and foreign powers unable to put their agendas aside, Lebanon’s economy continues to falter, a downward spiral that was brought on by the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Economic growth plummeted from a solid 9 percent at the time and has hovered around 1.1 percent for the past three years. Public debt stands at $82 billion, equivalent to 150 percent of gross domestic product, the third-highest world-wide after Japan and Greece.
At the Economic Conference for Development through Reforms with the Private Sector (CEDRE) in Paris in the spring, international donors pledged $11 billion to boost the economy, with a focus on improving Lebanon’s ailing infrastructure. In exchange, Lebanon promised reforms, including tougher measures to fight corruption and reduce budget deficits.
“The lifeline presented to us is a real opportunity to come out of this slump,” Al-Hassan said.
But if the government is formed and the reforms are not taken, it will be “harder and harder for the Lebanese economy to come out of the dire situation it is in now.
“This will result in huge unemployment if we don’t address it as soon as possible,” the former minister said.
“We are reaching a new milestone,” she said.
Lebanon: Between a political rock and an economic hard place
Lebanon: Between a political rock and an economic hard place
- Hariri heads into the fall all but powerless to address the economic decline
- Attempts to form a government have been deadlocked since Hezbollah and its allies have secured a cabinet majority
Israel assassinates Hezbollah media official
- Mohammed Afif killed in strike on Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party office in central Beirut, Lebanon
- Afif, founding member of Hezbollah, joined party in 1983, and has been media in-charge since 2014
BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on a building in central Beirut on Sunday killed Hezbollah’s media relations chief, Mohammad Afif.
It was later announced that Mahmoud Al-Sharqawi, who was assisting Afif, was also killed at the headquarters of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party in Ras Al-Nabaa, a neighborhood of Beirut.
This is the first time this area has been attacked since Israel began operations in the country.
It is densely populated with residents and displaced people from the south, and Beirut’s southern suburbs who have taken refuge there.
The strike also wounded three others, the Health Ministry said in a preliminary count.
Paramedics at the scene of the attack told Arab News about “seeing more blood under the rubble, which is being cleared to determine the fate of those who were inside the building.”
The targeted center has belonged to the Ba’ath Party for decades.
Its Secretary-General Ali Hijazi said he was not in the building at the time of the airstrike, and did not explain why Afif was holding a meeting in the Ba’ath Party building.
Information circulated at the site of the attack that a group from Hezbollah’s media relations department was in the building when it was targeted, raising fears that three people accompanying Afif and who are missing might also have been killed.
On Oct. 22 and Nov. 11, Afif held two press conferences in the open air in the southern suburb of Beirut to present Hezbollah’s positions on developments under the watchful eye of Israeli reconnaissance planes, which are constantly flying over the southern suburb.
Afif was a founding member of Hezbollah, joining the party in 1983, and has been in charge of its media since 2014.
He managed Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets such as Al-Manar TV, Al-Nour radio station, and Al-Ahed news website.
Several residents of the targeted area said they received calls warning them to evacuate their homes immediately beforehand.
A 50-year-old woman said: “I just left the house without taking anything with me. It is a real terror.”
The airstrike, which is suspected to have been launched by a drone, destroyed the upper floors of the five-story building, and damaged neighboring buildings on the narrow street.
Israeli army radio confirmed Mohammed Afif was the target of the strike.
It is the third time Beirut has been targeted since the Israeli military expanded its operations in Lebanon.
On Oct. 10, three airstrikes were directed at Wafiq Safa, the head of the liaison and coordination unit of Hezbollah, severely injuring him, as well as the destruction of two buildings in the neighborhoods of Basta and Nuwairi.
A week before, a Hezbollah ambulance center in Bachoura was attacked, leading to the deaths of six people and injuries to seven others.
On Sunday, residents of the Ain Al-Rummaneh area adjacent to the Chiyah district received evacuation warnings issued by Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee via X, accompanied by maps indicating locations to be targeted on the outskirts of Ain Al-Rummaneh, Haret Hreik, and Hadath.
Israeli warplanes subsequently demolished tall residential and commercial buildings in the area.
Our Lady of Salvation Church in Hadath was severely damaged, as were the surroundings of Mar Mikhael Church.
This was followed by a second wave of raids on residential buildings in Burj Al-Barajneh and Bir Al-Abed, and a third wave targeted more than one location in Haret Hreik and Sfeir.
The Israeli spokesperson claimed that the airstrikes “targeted military command centers and other terrorist infrastructures belonging to Hezbollah in the southern suburbs.”
The claim came as Israeli attacks targeting southern Lebanon continued.
The residents of 15 towns deep in the south were asked to evacuate their houses immediately and move north of the Awali River.
The Lebanese military said an Israeli attack on Sunday killed two soldiers, accusing Israel of directly targeting their position in southern Lebanon.
“The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Al-Mari in the Hasbaya area, causing “the death of one of the soldiers and the wounding of three others, one of whom is in critical condition,” the army said in a statement.
A separate statement shortly afterward said “a second soldier” had died of his wounds.
The Lebanese Army has lost 36 soldiers to Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon over the past year.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati paid tribute to the “martyrs of the army who gave their lives.”
He said: “We must all cooperate so their sacrifices do not go in vain by working first to stop the Israeli aggression on Lebanon and enable the army to carry out all the tasks required of it, to extend the authority of the state alone over all Lebanese territories.”
Mikati said he was hopeful that the ongoing talks would result in a ceasefire.
Also on Sunday, Israeli strikes targeted a house in Chabriha, Sidon District, causing injuries, with raids hitting Tefahta and Aanquoun as well.
In another incident, a person was killed and three injured at dawn in an air raid on the town of Jdeidet Marjayoun.
On Saturday night, a family of seven, including three children, were killed when their house in Arabsalim was targeted.
The displaced Al-Hattab family had moved to the north but was not able to adapt to the conditions of displacement and decided to go back to their home in Arabsalim days before it was hit.
Hezbollah said its confrontations with the Israeli army continued at the borders, especially in Shama.
Suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi militia targets ship in the Red Sea
- A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, UKMTO reports
- Fortunately, the vessel and crew were not hit in the attack, which happened some 48 kilometers west of Yemen port city of Mocha
DUBAI: A suspected attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a commercial ship late Sunday night traveling through the southern reaches of the Red Sea, though it caused no damage nor injuries, authorities said.
The attack comes as the rebels continue their monthslong assault targeting shipping through a waterway that typically sees $1 trillion in goods pass through it a year over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon.
A ship’s captain saw that “a missile splashed in close proximity to the vessel” as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said in an alert. The attack happened some 30 miles (48 kilometers) west of Yemen port city of Mocha.
“The vessel and crew are safe and proceeding to its next port of call,” the UKMTO added.
The Houthis did not immediately claim the attack. However, it can take the rebels hours or even days to acknowledge their assaults.
The Houthis have targeted more than 90 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started in October 2023. They seized one vessel and sank two in the campaign, which also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a US-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels as well.
The militia maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the US or the UK to force an end to Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
The Houthis have shot down multiple American MQ-9 Reaper drones as well.
In the Houthi's last attack on Nov. 11, two US Navy warships targeted with multiple drones and missiles as they were traveling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, but the attacks were not successful.
Palestinian WAFA journalist Rasha Herzallah jailed for 6 months by Israeli court
- Detention extended 5 times before ‘incitement on social media’ charge was brought
LONDON: An Israeli military court sentenced Palestinian journalist Rasha Herzallah to six months in jail on Sunday and fined her 13,000 shekels ($3,300).
Herzallah, 39, was working for the official Palestine News and Information Agency (WAFA) at the time of her arrest last June, when she was summoned to an investigation at the Israeli Huwwara detention center north of the occupied West Bank.
Her detention was extended five times before a charge of “incitement on social media” was brought to court at the Israeli Salem military base near Jenin. She is expected to be released from prison on Dec. 1.
Herzallah is the sister of Muhammad Herzallah, who died in November 2023 after being shot in the head by Israeli forces during a raid on Nablus city, WAFA reported. She is among 94 Palestinian journalists currently detained in Israeli jails.
WAFA reported that three other female journalists, Rola Hassanin, Bushra Al-Tawil and Amal Shujaiyah, a journalism student from Birzeit University, also remain in detention.
Cultural experts urge UN to shield Lebanon’s heritage
- Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, and other historic landmarks.
BEIRUT: Hundreds of cultural professionals, including archeologists and academics, called on the UN to safeguard war-torn Lebanon’s heritage in a petition published on Sunday before a crucial UNESCO meeting.
Several Israeli strikes in recent weeks on Baalbek in the east and Tyre in the south hit close to ancient Roman ruins designated as UNESCO World Heritage sites.
The petition, signed by 300 prominent cultural figures, was sent to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay a day before a special session in Paris to consider listing Lebanese cultural sites under “enhanced protection.”
It urges UNESCO to protect Baalbek and other heritage sites by establishing “no-target zones” around them, deploying international observers, and enforcing measures from the 1954 Hague Convention on cultural heritage in conflict.
“Lebanon’s cultural heritage at large is being endangered by recurrent assaults on ancient cities such as Baalbek, Tyre, and Anjar, all UNESCO world heritage sites, as well as other historic landmarks,” says the petition.
It calls on influential states to push for an end to military action that destroys or damages sites, as well as adding protections or introducing sanctions.
Change Lebanon, the charity behind the petition, said signatories included museum curators, academics, archeologists, and writers in Britain, France, Italy, and the US.
Enhanced protection status gives heritage sites “high-level immunity from military attacks,” according to UNESCO.
“Criminal prosecutions and sanctions, conducted by the competent authorities, may apply in cases where individuals do not respect the enhanced protection granted to a cultural property,” it said.
In Baalbek, Israeli strikes on Nov. 6 hit near the city’s Roman temples, according to authorities, destroying a heritage house dating back to the French mandate and damaging the historic site.
The region’s governor said “a missile fell in the car park” of a 1,000-year-old temple, the closest strike since the start of the war.
The ruins host the prestigious Baalbek Festival each year, a landmark event founded in 1956 and now a fixture on the international cultural scene, featuring performances by music legends like Oum Kalthoum, Charles Aznavour and Ella Fitzgerald.
Lebanon says Israeli strike on central Beirut kills two
- “Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district
BEIRUT: Lebanon said an Israeli strike on central Beirut’s Mar Elias district killed two people, the second such raid targeting the capital Sunday after an earlier strike killed a Hezbollah official.
Israel has been heavily bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, since all-out war erupted on September 23, but attacks on central Beirut have been rarer.
“Israeli warplanes launched a strike on the Mar Elias area,” the official National News Agency said of a densely packed residential and shopping district that also houses people displaced by the conflict.
The health ministry said the strike killed two people and wounded 13, raising an earlier toll of one dead and nine wounded.
AFP journalists heard the sound of explosions and then sirens amid a strong acrid smell of burning. AFP images showed a blaze at the site that firefighters were trying to extinguish.
A Lebanese security source, requesting anonymity, told AFP that the strike hit an electronics store in Mar Elias, without providing further details.
The NNA said the strike “targeted a Jamaa Islamiya center,” referring to a Sunni Muslim group allied to Palestinian militant group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
But Jamaa Islamiya lawmaker Imad Hout told AFP that “no center or institution affiliated with the group is located in the area targeted by the strike, and no member of the group was targeted.”
Earlier Sunday, a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in a strike on central Beirut’s Ras Al-Nabaa district.
Previous strikes claimed by Israel on Beirut’s southern suburbs have killed senior Hezbollah officials, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September.
In the wake of Sunday’s strikes, the education minister said schools and higher education institutions in the Beirut area would remain closed for two days.
