TEHRAN: It’s hard not to see China wherever you look in Iran.
From Chinese goods flooding markets to its business people eager for deals as Western business interests flee, Iran likely will further embrace Beijing as an alternative market for its crude oil and financial transactions amid uncertainty over the nuclear deal.
That doesn’t mean China offers a safe haven to Iran without conditions. Beijing will try to extract the maximum benefit, analysts said, and there is growing concern that China may take advantage of Iran.
Iran “has had to rely on China to offset the Western-induced isolation, predominantly championed by the United States,” said Arianne Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at the RAND Corp. who recently co-authored a book exploring Iran’s ties with China and Russia. “I think that what we’re going to see . is the return of a quasi-monopoly of key sectors of the Iranian economy by the Chinese.”
Trade and ties between China and Iran date back over 2,000 years to the ancient Silk Road caravan routes that brought the textile to Europe. Modern relations began under then-ruler Mohammad Reza Shah in 1971 after the Americans acknowledged Beijing’s Communist government. The 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the shah caused ties to cool until the mid-1980s.
For China, Iran for years served as a crucial gas pump for its rapid economic growth. Up until 2012, Iran was China’s third-largest source of crude oil imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Then came sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program, sparked by the West’s fears that Tehran’s enrichment and stockpiling of uranium could allow it to build nuclear weapons. Iran has denied wanting atomic bombs.
The US under President Barack Obama and European nations pressured China and other Asian countries to cut back on their purchases of Iranian crude, leading to the 2015 nuclear deal. Under it, Iran agreed to limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for Western sanctions being lifted.
Now with President Donald Trump’s decision to pull America from the accord, Iranians likely see China as one of the few avenues now open to them.
“China is a vast economy and has enough middle-sized companies that don’t have a lot of exposure to the US that Iran is going to be able to continue large quantities of trade there, assuming the Chinese government lets that happens and wants that to happen,” said Peter Harrell, a fellow at the Washington-based Center for a New American Security and a former US diplomat who worked on Iranian sanctions issues with Beijing.
The Chinese have stressed they want the nuclear deal to continue and support any talks toward that end.
“China has been carrying out open, transparent and normal business cooperation with Iran in the economic, trade and energy sectors. Such cooperation is reasonable, legitimate and lawful,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in August. “It contravenes no UN Security Council resolutions or international obligations China has pledged into, undermines the interests of no one, and thus deserves to be respected and maintained.”
He added, in an apparent dig at the Trump administration: “China always believes that reckless imposition of sanctions or threatening to use them will not help solve the issues.” China already faces a billion-dollar tariff fight with Washington itself.
First among China’s wants likely is Iran’s energy supplies as other US allies cut off their purchases by a November deadline. Nearly a quarter of all of Iran’s oil exports went to China in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration, making it the Islamic Republic’s biggest single market. While oil imports from Iran have dropped some 20 percent between May and August, “China will keep any reductions to a minimal level,” the Eurasia Group said Wednesday.
After French oil major Total pulled out of a $5 billion, 20-year agreement to develop the Iran’s massive South Pars offshore natural gas field, growing rumors circulated that China would take over the concession.
Meanwhile, India may face growing pressure to pull out of Iran’s Chahbahar port on the Gulf of Oman after pledging $500 million to improve it, allowing China to expand its own presence there. China already has invested in Pakistan’s Gwadar port, some 80 kilometers (50 miles) away. Both provide a link to Afghanistan and other landlocked central Asian nations.
“China is really going to be the major savior of Iran because even though other countries say they’re not going to comply with US sanctions — India for example — when push comes to shove, they can’t afford to risk their relationship with the United States,” Tabatabai said.
But already, there are rumblings of concern among the Iranian public.
At Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, most acknowledge Chinese goods are substandard to the ones sold by Western firms and remember how they flooded the market when nuclear sanctions bit into the country in 2006. Fishermen along Iran’s southern coast already complain about Chinese firms gaining access to their fishing grounds.
Analysts expect Beijing also will ring major discounts from Tehran for buying whatever crude it otherwise can’t sell after the November deadline.
China “will want to articulate the moral high ground” by mentioning the US backed out of the nuclear deal, but business will come first, Harrell said. China remains both Iran’s top import and export market.
“One thing I’m sure China is doing with the sanctions is leaning on Iran to get oil price concessions,” Harrell said.
The one thing China, the world’s top oil importer, does not want to see happen is any military action driving up the price of crude oil.
When Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made veiled threats about Iran’s ability to close off the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese immediately reached out to the Iranian government to express concern.
“If Iran does something stupid that sends global crude oil prices from $73 to $100 a barrel, China is actually the biggest loser by the move by far,” Harrell said. “They have a very strong interest in stability, particularly in the Middle East.”
Iran looks warily to China for help as US sanctions resume
Iran looks warily to China for help as US sanctions resume
- Iran was China’s third-largest source of crude oil until 2012
- Chinese made goods highly visible in Tehran markets
Regional FDI inflows a win-win for Gulf states, says Bahrain’s economic development strategy chief
MANAMA: Gulf countries’ success in attracting foreign investments is a win-win for the region, a senior business strategy expert has told Arab News.
In an interview on the second day of the Bahrain International Airshow, Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board, described the Middle East’s growing ability to attract funding as “fantastic,” noting that it brings greater attention to the region.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia secured foreign direct investment inflows of SR96 billion ($25.6 billion), 16 percent higher than its target amount, while Bahrain received a record $1.7 billion over the same period, marking an 55 percent annual increase.
“When Saudi Arabia or the UAE does very well, it means that we could also benefit from that. I think that we often see the region as very competitive. I like to see it as a very collaborative and I think that everybody could benefit. If the pie gets larger, each individual’s share will also get larger.” she said.
Reflecting on Bahrain’s FDI increase, Al-Saeed said that figure relates to the Economic Development Board’s achievements.
“If we are looking at the foreign direct investments’ statistics and results, we will see Bahrain actually attracted a much larger number than that, but this represents a record number for the EDB,” she said.
Al-Saeed noted that funding secured in 2023 went to investment projects across all of Bahrain’s priority sectors, which include financial services, communication and technology, and manufacturing, as well as logistics and tourism,
“These are the key priority non-oil sectors identified by the government, and they are the focus of the EDB. The board has dedicated teams for each sector to promote and attract investments in these areas,” she said.
She also said that these projects have contributed to job creation in the country, and she expected this investment trend to continue.
Explaining how her organization’s strategy aligns with the country’s economic vision for 2030, Al-Saeed said that the EDB, as the nation’s investment promotion agency, works very closely with a wider ecosystem of stakeholders known as “Team Bahrain.”
This group has tailored its investment promotion strategies to mirror the government’s national economic plans.
“Back in October 2021, the government launched the economic recovery plan where it identified key priority sectors, and the EDB aligned to that in order to ensure that we operate as a cohesive unit, and we are able to attract the right investments that will further stimulate the development and growth of our country,” the chief officer said.
Discussing the unique advantages Bahrain offers, Al-Saeed highlighted the country’s success over the past decades in attracting regional investors that now play a vital role in the nation’s economy.
“If we look at our foreign direct investment statistics, we will see the majority of our foreign investments come from the GCC region, and that is predominantly in the financial services sector, and this is a trend that we have seen since the 70s, where Bahrain managed to attract a lot of regional capital in the financial services sector from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and others, of course.” she said.
“There are many advantages because we treat GCC investors like Bahrainis when it comes to the processes of establishing business activities,” Al-Saeed added.
In addition, Bahrain has a wide range of incentives that are offered to investors.
One of these is the work of the country's labor fund, Tamkeen, which offers businesses the opportunity to support hiring local talent, as well as training and upskilling them to meet the needs of those companies.
Al-Saeed highlighted recent regulatory changes aimed at making Bahrain more attractive to global businesses and startups, and emphasized that significant efforts have been made to ensure the state remains both competitive and conducive to investments and business growth.
“Maybe one of the key, or most recent initiatives that is worth highlighting, is the Golden License program that was launched back in April 2023, which aims to provide streamlined services to strategic investment projects that are valued at $50 million or that creates 500 jobs here in Bahrain,” she said.
The chief officer added that through this initiative, projects and companies can benefit from expedited services when it comes to getting approvals, licenses or even access to decision makers.
“This has been very instrumental in terms of ensuring that we provide high-class services to investors,” said Al-Saeed, noting that nine projects have been granted Golden License status since the initiative was launched.
She further said that the total of those projects is valued at $2.4 billion, with investors coming from various sectors and different regional and global countries, including Bahrain.
In response to a question about the role of the aviation sector in the EDB’s investment strategy, Al-Saeed stated that it helps create a conducive investment environment, as it is what connects Bahrain with the rest of the world.
“This is not just in terms of the movement of people but also in transporting goods and service through air cargo. So, it is very important; as we do not target just the market that is within our geographic boundaries, but we aim to serve a much wider area and catchment area,” she said.
Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn
RIYADH: Banks in Saudi Arabia granted SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages in the first nine months of 2024, an annual rise of 4.88 percent.
The data was released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, and it showed the bulk of the loans — constituting 64 percent or SR38.85 billion — was allocated for house purchases.
This segment did witness a 3.38 percent dip year on year, with its proportion of total loans shrinking from the 69 percent seen during the same period of 2023.
Demand for apartments surged, capturing 31 percent of total mortgages, up from 25 percent a year ago, as this category of lending reached SR18.6 billion.
This shift represents a 26.8 percent growth, underscoring the increasing preference for apartment ownership amid urbanization and demographic changes.
Additionally, loans for land purchases showed a promising trajectory, achieving an annual growth rate of 8.26 percent and amounting to SR3.5 billion, which signals a sustained interest in land investment across the Kingdom.
The rise in new residential bank loans across Saudi Arabia is being driven by a blend of population growth, evolving mortgage policies, and increasing interest in apartment living.
According to a recent report from online real estate platform Sakan, the Kingdom’s population surged by four million over the past five years, with demand for housing climbing in response.
While this trend fuels the broader housing market, apartments have become a prominent focus, reflecting changing demographics and affordability needs.
The growth of the expatriate population, which expanded from 9.9 million in 2010 to 13.4 million in 2022 and now makes up over 40 percent of the population, also adds pressure on the rental market, particularly in major cities.
The government’s push for greater home ownership through buyer-friendly mortgage policies is helping fuel this apartment demand.
Favorable mortgage options and the recent introduction of the Premium Residency Visa, often dubbed the “Saudi Green Card,” allow foreign investors to enter the market with purchases over SR4 million, fostering interest in upscale residential investments.
Additionally, the value proposition of apartments is clear, as with SR1 million, buyers can access apartment sizes that vary by city — for instance, around 131 sq. meters in North Riyadh to a more spacious 333 sq. meters in Dammam, according to the report.
Saudi Arabia’s liberalized foreign ownership policies and affordable mortgage terms further boost demand, particularly for apartments in desirable areas.
The high rental yields offered by apartments in Saudi Arabia also attract investors, with two- and three-bedroom apartments in Riyadh delivering yields of 9 to 10 percent, and even higher returns in Jeddah, where a two-bedroom unit yields 11.7 percent.
These returns are notably higher than apartment yields in neighboring Gulf cities, where they average between 5 to 6 percent in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
High rental yields not only make apartments attractive as long-term investments but also help offset rising property costs, driving both end-users and investors to favor this category in a market characterized by shifting residential preferences.
According to the report, the surge is also driven by the rapid evolution of real estate technology.
Platforms like Sakan are reshaping the real estate landscape by enhancing transparency, streamlining property transactions, and providing data-driven insights for buyers and investors alike.
Leveraging local knowledge and international expertise, these platforms are supporting the sector’s growth by simplifying access to property listings, improving market transparency, and facilitating faster transaction times.
As property technology continues to integrate into the Saudi market, it is poised to play a pivotal role in sustaining the momentum of residential lending and meeting the needs of a tech-savvy, expanding population.
Saudi Arabia’s official reserves reach $457bn, up 4%
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s official reserve assets reached SR1.71 trillion ($456.97 billion) in September, marking a 4 percent increase year-on-year, according to new data.
Figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, show these holdings include monetary gold, special drawing rights, the International Monetary Fund’s reserve position, and foreign reserves.
The latter, comprising currency and deposits abroad as well as investments in foreign securities, made up 94.5 percent of the total, amounting to SR1.62 trillion in September. This category grew 4.11 percent during this period.
September data indicated that special drawing rights rose to SR79.86 billion, marking a 4.18 percent increase and reaching the highest level in two and a half years. SDRs now account for 4.66 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total reserves.
Created by the IMF to supplement member countries’ official reserves, SDRs derive their value from a basket of major currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling. They can be exchanged among governments for freely usable currencies when needed.
SDRs provide additional liquidity, stabilize exchange rates, act as a unit of account, and facilitate international trade and financial stability.
The IMF reserve position totaled around SR12.64 billion, but decreased by 11.45 percent during this period. This category represents the amount a country can draw from the IMF without conditions.
Saudi Arabia’s official reserves have been a fundamental pillar of the nation’s economic stability and are closely tied to its strategic investments in foreign securities.
The Kingdom’s reserves include an extensive portfolio of foreign assets, diversified across currencies and geographies, ensuring the country has a robust financial buffer against global economic uncertainties.
This prudent reserve management has helped Saudi Arabia maintain a resilient fiscal position and a strong credit rating, affirmed at “A/A-1” by S&P Global, which recently upgraded the Kingdom’s outlook to positive due to its sustained reform momentum.
In alignment with Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has adopted an expansionary fiscal policy to support transformative projects aimed at reducing its economic dependence on oil.
This ambitious agenda has led to budget deficits and prompted the country to tap into debt markets to finance key infrastructure and social initiatives.
Despite the uptick in debt, the Kingdom remains fiscally well-positioned, with ample reserves and substantial net assets, projected to stay above 40 percent of GDP through 2027 according to S&P Global.
This buffer underscores Saudi Arabia’s capacity to absorb potential economic shocks while continuing to pursue its development goals.
The nation’s significant reserve base not only underpins its economic stability but also provides the flexibility to recalibrate spending on large infrastructure projects as needed, maintaining a balance between growth and fiscal discipline.
This strategy is essential as Saudi Arabia seeks to nurture its non-oil sectors, supported by the Public Investment Fund and other governmental entities.
The PIF’s role in fostering a diversified economy is central to Vision 2030’s objectives, from investment in renewable energy to technology and healthcare, creating a more resilient and diversified economic base.
With the positive outlook and strategic focus on sustainable growth, Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms are expected to drive strong non-oil growth over the medium term, further cementing the Kingdom’s fiscal stability and enhancing investor confidence in its long-term economic vision.
COP29: Clean energy a catalyst for stability, recovery in conflict zones
- Environmental solutions reduce dependence on imports
- Micro-grids support conflict-ridden communities
BAKU: As COP29 progresses in Baku, attention is turning to the ways in which clean energy can transform post-conflict recovery efforts, bringing both environmental resilience and social stability to regions affected by war.
This year’s discussions have highlighted how renewable energy offers more than environmental benefits, having the potential to catalyze economic recovery, improve living standards and build long-term resilience in areas most vulnerable to conflict.
Renewable energy in conflict recovery: A new dimension of aid
Experts have highlighted how sustainable infrastructure can reduce dependence on foreign energy imports and fuel local economies in war-torn areas.
Hafed Al-Ghwell, a North African geopolitics expert, said in an interview with Arab News that “clean energy isn’t just about generating power; it’s about autonomy and resilience.” For regions dependent on volatile foreign fuel supplies, renewables offer a more stable power source that strengthens local autonomy.
Gilles Carbonnier, vice president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, highlighted the critical role of renewable energy in supporting communities severely affected by both conflict and climate change.
“The people who are most affected by climate change risks are those who live in zones of armed conflict and have the least capability to adapt and face these risks,” Carbonnier said.
He described how the ICRC is using solar power to help protect communities from droughts, floods and extreme weather across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
“What we need is to scale these efforts, which means directing much more climate funding to conflict zones,” Carbonnier added.
This local approach provides immediate aid while laying the foundation for sustainable recovery in areas struggling with limited resources and infrastructure damage.
Gaza: The intersection of war and environmental crisis
The war and occupation in Gaza represents a severe environmental and humanitarian crisis.
Crown Prince Hussein of Jordan addressed COP29. In calling for global solidarity with Gaza, he said: “Saving our planet must start from the premise that all lives are worth saving.” He described how the war is “compounding environmental challenges for Gaza and beyond.”
A recent UN Environment Program report highlighted severe contamination of Gaza’s land, water and air due to the destruction of critical infrastructure, including sewage and waste systems, leaving communities surrounded by hazardous debris.
Carbonnier said that Gaza is emblematic of the dual crisis faced by many conflict zones, where war intensifies environmental damage and deepens humanitarian challenges.
“In Gaza, conflict has degraded critical infrastructure to the point where basic resources like clean water and electricity are scarce,” he said.
“Renewable energy solutions, such as solar micro-grids, could offer essential relief by providing stable power to hospitals, schools and homes,” he added.
In Gaza, solar micro-grids deployed by NGOs are already providing essential power for hospitals and emergency shelters, offering a sustainable alternative to fuel imports which have been blockaded by Israeli forces since the conflict began.
Resilience through clean energy infrastructure
Renewable energy infrastructure, particularly solar and wind power, is highly adaptable to conflict and post-conflict settings due to its low maintenance requirements and modular design.
Solar panels and wind turbines require minimal upkeep and their modular nature allows for incremental infrastructure development as security improves.
This approach has proved effective in Syria, where solar-powered micro-grids are supplying power to refugee camps, providing consistent electricity for vital services like sanitation and healthcare.
According to Carbonnier, these micro-grids “reduce dependence on often costly and dangerous fuel deliveries and stabilize power supplies for communities under stress.”
Renewable energy micro-grids are now recognized as a cornerstone of humanitarian aid, offering stability to populations affected by protracted crises.
Policy implications and international support
For renewable energy to become a reliable tool in post-conflict recovery, coordinated international support and robust policy frameworks are essential.
Azerbaijan’s lead COP29 negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, highlighted the need for financial support specifically directed at conflict zones. “Bridging the gaps between climate finance and peace-building efforts can unlock substantial benefits for communities emerging from conflict,” Rafiyev said.
Rumen Radev, president of Bulgaria, highlighted the link between climate resilience and global stability, telling Arab News: “Extreme meteorological events threaten not just people and economies, but also the security and stability of the world.”
His remarks highlight the importance of COP29’s goals in fostering peace through enhanced climate resilience.
Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly loss as Chinese demand continues to underperform
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Friday on signs demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, continues to underperform amid its uneven economic recovery.
Brent crude futures were down 65 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $71.91 a barrel by 7:50 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 62 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $68.08.
For the week, Brent is set to fall 2.7 percent while WTI is set to decline 3.3 percent.
“While oil prices have somewhat stabilized around the $71.00 level of support this week, the lack of a concrete bullish catalyst suggests that price recovery remains tepid for now,” Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said in an email.
The prospect of higher supplies from the US and OPEC+ along with doubts over China’s economic recovery continue to be of concern, while the odds of a December rate cut are now “closer to a coin flip” under a less dovish Federal Reserve, Yeap added.
China’s oil refiners in October processed 4.6 percent less crude than a year earlier, falling year-on-year for a seventh month, amid the closures of some plants and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.
The decline in run rates occurred as China’s factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating even though consumer spending increased, government data showed.
Oil prices also fell this week as major forecasters indicated market fundamentals remained bearish.
The International Energy Agency forecast global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, as rising production from the US and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.
The Paris-based agency raised its 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 bpd, and left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 bpd.
OPEC this week cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth-consecutive downward revision to its 2024 outlook.
US crude inventories last week rose by 2.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, much more than analysts’ expectations for a 750,000-barrel rise.
Gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week to the lowest since November 2022, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel build.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, also fell unexpectedly by 1.4 million barrels, the data showed.
