ISTANBUL: Disagreement between Turkey and Russia over how to tackle the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib seems to have deferred a looming regime offensive on the province, analysts say.
Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the conflict, but key global allies.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Russian and Iranian leaders Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani in Tehran on September 7 to discuss Syria, just as a major assault by Russia-backed regime forces on Idlib appeared imminent.
But discord at the summit between Erdogan and Putin, in a rare scene captured on camera, may have prompted Russia to postpone the Idlib strike so as not to provoke Ankara, which is fiercely opposed to a military option.
“I believe an offensive, if there will be one, will not come before several weeks,” a senior Turkish official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Turkey, which backs rebels fighting against President Bashar Assad’s regime, co-sponsors — with regime allies Russia and Iran — the so-called Astana talks launched in January 2017 in the quest for a lasting cease-fire.
To date, the dialogue has resulted in the creation of four pre-cease-fire “de-escalation zones” in Syria, including in Idlib.
Idlib is the last major opposition stronghold in the war-torn country. Sixty percent of the area is controlled by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) extremist group, an Al-Qaeda branch operating in Syria.
Intense negotiations have taken place between Turkey and Russia since the failure of the Tehran summit, to hammer out a compromise in a bid to avert an assault which Erdogan has cautioned would ignite a “bloodbath.”
Such a compromise could include neutralising the HTS — officially designated as a terror group by Ankara. Erdogan and Putin are expected to discuss the issue when they meet in the Russian resort city of Sochi on Monday.
For Turkey, the stakes are high.
Ankara fears a large-scale assault on Idlib, which lies on its southern border, could trigger a massive flow of refugees onto its soil. Turkey is already home to more than three million Syrians who have fled the conflict.
Abdul Wahab Assi, an analyst at the Syria-based Jusoor Studies Center, said disagreements at the Tehran summit “rule out a possible offensive in the short run, at least until the end of the year.”
He said a possible compromise from the ongoing talks could take the form of a “limited military operation or surgical strikes” targeting the HTS, or modifying the borders of the de-escalation zones to keep armed rebels from certain sectors.
Russia may be open to such a plan, Assi said, as long as it would secure the Idlib section of the Aleppo-Damascus highway and put an end to drone attacks launched from Idlib against Moscow’s main military base of Hmeimim in the neighboring province of Latakia.
Some three million people live in Idlib province and adjacent areas, the United Nations says, around half of whom have already fled their homes in other parts of Syria.
Regime forces and Russian warplanes resumed airstrikes on Idlib in September but the strikes fell in intensity this week.
Turkish media reported Ankara has sent reinforcements, including tanks, to beef up its border with Syria and its observation posts in Idlib.
Turkish military analyst Metin Gurcan, judges these measures to be of a “defensive” nature, aimed at protecting Turkish observation posts against any possible threat.
Gurcan said the lack of an agreement with Ankara could push Moscow, and thus the Syrian regime, to stage an “incremental operation that will last months” rather than a full-fledged attack.
“Russia is trying to keep Ankara in the game,” he told AFP, saying any confrontation between the two countries was “highly unlikely.”
“Moscow needs Turkey as a Sunni power to balance Shiite militias’ presence in northern Syria,” he said.
Turkey-Russia discord over Idlib defers regime offensive, for now
Turkey-Russia discord over Idlib defers regime offensive, for now
- Idlib is the last major opposition stronghold in the war-torn country
- Intense negotiations have taken place between Turkey and Russia since the failure of the Tehran summit
‘Foreign interference’ not behind Syria flareup: Turkiye
ANKARA: Turkiye, which backs militant factions in Syria, rejected Monday any suggestion that “foreign interference” was behind the offensive launched by Islamists in the country’s north.
“It would be a mistake at this time to try to explain the events in Syria by any foreign interference,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a joint press conference in Ankara with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.
The recent flareup which saw Damascus losing swathes of territory in northwestern Syria, including Aleppo, during a lightning offensive by militants, was due to the government’s failure to engage in dialogue with armed opposition groups, he said.
“The lack of talks between [Damascus] and the opposition has brought the problem to this point,” he said, describing it as “a mistake to ignore the legitimate demands of the opposition.”
“Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” he added.
Turkiye did “not want an escalation of the civil war,” said the minister who told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone call Sunday that Ankara would support moves “to reduce tension” in Syria.
Araghchi said it was crucial “to protect the achievements of the Astana process” to end Syria’s civil war, which groups Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, and pledged to convene fresh ministerial talks in the Kazakh capital “soon.”
The last such meeting took place in mid-November.
“Syria must not become a center for terrorist groups,” warned Araghchi in reference to the militant factions that staged last week’s attack.
Fidan also said it was “important that terror organizations do not take advantage of the instability” although he was referring to Kurdish-led rebels that Ankara sees as an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has led a led a decades-long insurgency against Turkiye.
Turkish troops and Turkiye-backed militant factions control much of northern Syria, and Ankara is concerned that the recent outbreak of fighting could swell the flow of people fleeing across the border.
“We don’t want civilians to be killed or cities bombarded or people being displaced. We want these displaced people to be able to go back. The flow of refugees must be reversed,” he said.
Turkiye is already hosting some 3.2 million Syrian refugees, according to UN data.
Syria’s Bashar Assad on Monday branded the Islamist-led offensive as a bid to redraw the map of the region in line with US interests in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.
Both Iran and Russia, which have backed Assad since Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, have said they will help Damascus fight back after losing Aleppo, with Tehran confirming it would keep its military advisers in Syria.
Two dead in attack on Sudan displacement camp: activists
- The Zamzam camp, south of the regional capital El-Fasher, was hit by heavy rocket and artillery fire from the RSF on Sunday morning
- Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including targeting civilians, shelling residential areas, and blocking or looting aid
Port Sudan, Sudan: At least two people were killed when Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces attacked a camp for displaced people in the North Darfur region, activists said on Monday.
The Zamzam camp, south of the regional capital El-Fasher, was hit by heavy rocket and artillery fire from the RSF on Sunday morning, said the local resistance committee in El-Fasher.
The “indiscriminate” attack killed at least two people and wounded a dozen others, said the committee, one of hundreds of volunteer groups coordinating aid in Sudan.
The northeast African country has been gripped by a war between the regular army and RSF that has killed tens of thousands and displaced more than 11 million since April last year.
Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including targeting civilians, shelling residential areas, and blocking or looting aid.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher, after visiting Sudan and neighboring Chad last week, called for immediate international action to address the crisis.
“It is a tough situation out there, the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world. And I’ve been talking to local people to host communities,” Fletcher said in a weekend statement.
Nearly 26 million people — about half the population — face the threat of mass starvation in Sudan as both warring sides have been accused of using hunger as a weapon of war.
“These numbers are staggering, and we cannot turn our backs,” Fletcher said.
ICC member states must act against Israeli, US threats: HRW
- International Criminal Court has faced ‘extreme pressure’ since issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant
- Human Rights Watch: ‘Crucial work’ at The Hague must continue ‘without obstruction’
LONDON: International Criminal Court member countries must oppose Israeli and US efforts to undermine the court follows its issuing of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, Human Rights Watch said on Monday.
The organization released a 24-page report outlining recommendations to member countries ensuring that the ICC receives the “political backing, resources and cooperation” it needs to carry out its mandate.
The world’s top international court has faced “extreme pressure” since issuing the warrants on Nov. 21, HRW said.
Warrants were issued for the arrests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Mohammed Deif, a Hamas commander.
US lawmakers renewed threats of sanctions against the court and its officials after the warrants were issued.
Liz Evenson, HRW’s international justice director, said ICC warrants “send a critical message that no one is above the law. ICC member countries should make a commitment during their annual meeting (on Dec. 2-7) to take all necessary steps to ensure that the ICC’s crucial work for justice can continue without obstruction.”
HRW warned that US sanctions against the ICC would have “wide-reaching consequences for global justice.”
Legal uncertainty and apprehension for NGOs, consultants and lawyers could arise as a result of sanctions, which are “a tool to be used against those responsible for the most serious crimes, not against those promoting justice,” HRW said.
After the issuing of the warrants, many ICC member countries voiced support for the court’s decision, yet some avoided making explicit commitments to enforcing them.
Hungary’s President Viktor Orban said he would invite Netanyahu to visit his country despite Hungary, an ICC member, being obliged to arrest anyone wanted by The Hague.
The French government last week appeared to claim that Netanyahu enjoys immunity from arrest as Israel is not an ICC member. Judges at The Hague have rejected this view.
Member countries must condemn Israeli and US threats against the court and its supporters, including civil society organizations, NGOs and human rights defenders, HRW said.
The annual meeting should result in “concrete steps” aimed at protecting the court from “coercive measures,” the organization added.
“The ICC needs the support of its member countries to fulfill its ambitious global mandate of delivering justice for the most serious crimes,” Evenson said.
“Member country support needs to be consistent over time and across situations to avoid double standards, and uphold the court’s legitimacy for victims and affected communities.”
Iran says it will keep ‘military advisers’ in Syria
TEHRAN: Iran said on Monday that it plans to keep military advisers in Syria after its ally’s second city Aleppo was overrun by militants in a surprise offensive.
The Islamic republic, which has backed President Bashar Assad since Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, says it only deploys military advisers in the country at the invitation of Damascus.
“We entered Syria many years ago at the official invitation of the Syrian government, when the Syrian people faced the threat of terrorism,” said foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaeil.
“Our military advisers were present in Syria, and they are still present” and would remain in the country “in accordance with the wishes” of its government, he told a news conference in Tehran.
Baqaeil did not specify whether or not Iran would be increasing its forces in Syria in the wake of the lightning militant offensive.
His remarks come a day after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Assad in Damascus to show support for the Syrian president.
Aleppo fell to an Islamist-dominated militant alliance over the course of the past week, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor.
Syrian and Russian air forces strike Aleppo’s eastern countryside
CAIRO: Syrian and Russian air forces were striking militant-held positions in Aleppo’s eastern countryside, killing and wounding dozens of insurgents, according to a statement from the Syrian Prime Minister’s office on Monday.
Russia said it continues to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is analysing the situation on the ground after Islamist insurgents and other rebel groups seized territory in Syria.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday Russia would form its position based on unfolding events.
Meanwhile, Kurdish YPG forces began pulling out of areas under their control in the northeastern sector of Aleppo city under a deal with militant forces, sources and a resident said on Monday.
The deal to pull out of Sheikh Maqsoud and Bustan al Basha and other areas in the city allows civilians to leave to areas in northeast Syria under Kurdish control, the sources told Reuters.
