PARIS: China is the last bulwark against a deep crisis in emerging economies going fully global, analysts say, although a prolonged trade war could sap Beijing’s defenses.
Emerging countries — loosely defined as having fast growing but volatile economies — have seen their currencies battered in recent weeks, plunging their finances into turmoil, and raising fears of global contagion.
But China, the world’s second-biggest economy and itself categorized as an emerging market, doesn’t share a key downside of the worst-hit countries: their rampant current account deficits.
“The possibility of a currency crisis in China is unlikely,” said Guan Qingyou, chief economist at China’s Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance.
“China’s ability to resist risk is relatively strong.”
Current account deficits must be financed with foreign currencies, and as central banks across the world enter a cycle of tighter monetary conditions, especially the powerful US Federal Reserve, cheap money will become scarce.
Higher US interest rates are “another nail in the coffin” for emerging countries needing external financing, said Lukman Otunuga, a research analyst at FXTM.
A meltdown of the Turkish lira — somewhat stemmed by a recent massive interest rate rise — and the Argentinian peso are cases in point, as both countries have “exceptionally large current account deficits,” said Oliver Jones, markets economist at Capital Economics.
South Africa, Colombia and, to a lesser extent, India and Indonesia are in similar danger of being trapped in Fed rate rise pain, he said.
But the currencies of Korea, Thailand and Malaysia have done much better because of their close trade ties with Beijing and their healthier current account positions.
China itself still boasts a strong foreign reserve position and has taken steps to cut debt, both useful shields against global turmoil.
“Our foreign exchange reserves are still relatively high,” said Guan at the Reality Institute. “In addition, China has already started the process of deleveraging after the end of 2016.”
But even if fundamentals are still holding up, only the very brave dare predict how damaging ongoing trade tensions with the United States will be to China’s position.
Recent tentative signs of improving relations between Washington and Beijing have lifted investor spirits, but the threat of the US imposing fresh tariffs on Chinese imports worth $200 billion still looms large.
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned recently that higher US-China tariffs would have a “measurable impact on growth in China” and “trigger vulnerabilities” among its Asian neighbors.
While her staff did not yet see contagion spreading beyond the countries currently fighting investor flight, the escalating US-China trade spat could deliver a “shock” to emerging markets, she told the Financial Times
But in the meantime, said Joydeep Mukherji, an analyst with S&P Global, said “we are not forecasting a major crisis in emerging markets.”
Perhaps inspired by the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis, economists have started to wonder whether there could be another worldwide meltdown, this time triggered by highly-indebted emerging countries.
For now, the answer appears to be no.
“China can still cope with its debt due to its high savings rate,” said Holger Schmieding, an analyst with Berenberg.
“Some other emerging markets are in trouble. Fortunately, they are simply not big enough to cause a big new global crisis.”
Resilient China is firewall in emerging currency crisis
Resilient China is firewall in emerging currency crisis
- Emerging countries — loosely defined as having fast growing but volatile economies — have seen their currencies battered in recent weeks
- China, the world’s second-biggest economy and itself categorized as an emerging market, doesn’t share a key downside of the worst-hit countries
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy to grow 4.4% in 2025: PwC
- Kingdom’s non-oil economy expanded by 3.8% in first half of 2024
- Saudi Arabia is aligning its economic diversification efforts with sustainability goals
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2025 as the Kingdom continues its path toward economic diversification, according to a new analysis.
In its latest report, professional services firm PwC Middle East said Saudi Arabia is aligning its economic diversification efforts with sustainability goals, including achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
In the first half of the year, the Kingdom’s non-oil economy expanded by 3.8 percent, with the non-energy private sector seeing a 4.9 percent growth in the second quarter, it added.
Strengthening the non-oil private sector is a core objective of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, which aims to reduce the Kingdom’s dependence on oil revenues.
“Saudi Arabia’s transformational journey combines economic diversification with sustainable growth. The expansion of renewable energy, focus on advanced industries, and vision for a green future highlight the Kingdom’s commitment to its national goals and its role in the global energy transition,” said Riyadh Al-Najjar, Middle East chairman of the board and Saudi Arabia senior partner at PwC Middle East.
PwC said the Kingdom’s trade and hospitality sectors grew by 6.4 percent year on year in the first half of the year, while transport and communications, and finance and business services also posted positive growth of 4.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
The report noted Saudi Arabia’s progress in the electric vehicle sector, with significant investments in EV manufacturing.
The Kingdom is building a hub in King Abdullah Economic City to produce 150,000 vehicles by 2026 and 500,000 by 2030.
The Saudi government is expanding EV infrastructure through the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Co., a joint venture between the Public Investment Fund and Saudi Electricity Co., to install 5,000 fast chargers by 2030.
“Saudi Arabia’s drive toward a diversified and sustainable economy showcases its adaptability and resilience. These efforts reflect our nation’s commitment to a greener future and set a benchmark for global energy transition,” said Faisal Al-Sarraj, deputy country senior partner in Saudi Arabia and PwC Middle East consulting clients and markets leader.
In October, Moody’s projected that Saudi Arabia’s non-hydrocarbon real GDP would grow by 5 percent to 5.5 percent from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased government spending.
The International Monetary Fund also projected Saudi Arabia’s economy to grow by 4.6 percent in 2025, largely driven by the Kingdom’s diversification strategy and the expansion of the non-oil private sector.
Saudi Arabia, Tunisia sign deal to boost bilateral investments
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Tunisia have signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral cooperation and promote direct investments between the two nations.
The deal, which was inked by Saudi Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih and Tunisian Minister of Economy and Planning Samir Abdel Hafeez in Tunis, focuses on sharing regulations and laws to enhance the investment environment in both countries.
The agreement, which also aims to improve investment opportunities, was discussed during a meeting attended by Saudi Ambassador to Tunisia Abdulaziz bin Ali Al-Saqr. The talks covered several sectors of mutual interest, including industry, transport, and logistics, with a focus on enhancing collaboration and facilitating joint ventures, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
Tunisian President Kais Saied welcomed Al-Falih, where the Saudi minister conveyed greetings from King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expressing the Kingdom’s commitment to Tunisia’s ongoing progress and stability.
Saied thanked Saudi Arabia for its leadership role in the Arab and Islamic worlds, praising the Kingdom’s efforts in fostering regional unity and development.
He added that the agreement marked a significant step in strengthening economic ties between the two countries, with the MoU serving as a catalyst for joint development initiatives.
The deal follows recent discussions on strengthening industrial and economic cooperation.
In October, Saudi Vice Minister of Industry Affairs Khalil bin Salamah confirmed to Arab News that collaboration with Tunisia was imminent, noting that the two countries were in the process of selecting key sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive components, for initial investments.
He emphasized the need for common policies among Arab nations to serve as a foundation for regional collaboration across various industrial sectors.
On the sidelines of the Multilateral Industrial Policy Forum in Riyadh las month, Tunisian Minister of Industry, Mines, and Energy Fatma Thabet Chiboub also pointed out that Tunisia’s distinctive mining resources presented significant opportunities for Saudi investors.
She emphasized the automotive components and pharmaceutical industries as key areas for potential collaboration, while also expressing concern that the current level of investment from Saudi Arabia did not fully reflect the bilateral relationship’s potential.
The MoU is seen as a crucial step in deepening the economic and industrial ties between Saudi Arabia and Tunisia, both of which are looking to diversify their economies and create new growth opportunities through strategic partnerships.
Saudi insurers expect financial boost from new reinsurance mechanism
- Move aims to boost role of local reinsurance firms in mitigating insurance risks
- Kingdom’s insurance industry is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2% through 2028
RIYADH: Saudi insurance companies are expecting a positive impact on their financial performance from a new mechanism that directs reinsurance premiums to the local market.
The move, introduced by the Saudi Insurance Authority, aims to boost the role of local reinsurance firms in mitigating insurance risks within the Kingdom.
“The mechanism stipulates that when insurance companies wish to reinsure, they must offer at least 30 percent of their treaty and facultative reinsurance agreements to companies licensed to conduct reinsurance activities within the Kingdom,” according to a statement on the Saudi Stock Exchange.
The mechanism is set to take effect on Jan. 1, giving licensed reinsurance companies the priority to accept or decline these assignments, it added.
Saudi Arabia’s insurance industry is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2 percent through 2028, with its market size expected to reach SR83.7 billion ($22.28 billion), according to London-based data analytics and consulting company GlobalData.
This growth, up from SR68.3 billion in 2024, is largely attributed to the health and motor insurance sectors, which are projected to account for 86 percent of total gross written premiums.
Earlier data compiled by Arab News from Bloomberg showed a strong performance in the sector, with earnings increasing by 25 percent in the first half of 2024, reaching SR2.2 billion ($585 million), compared to the same period in 2023.
The Saudi Reinsurance Co. expects the new mechanism to boost its reinsurance revenues in the Saudi market by more than 5 percent. The company also said that the financial impact will be reflected in its earnings from the first quarter of next year.
Walaa Cooperative Insurance Co. said that the mechanism will positively affect its financial performance, with results expected to be seen starting in the first quarter of 2025.
As one of the companies licensed by the insurance authority to conduct reinsurance activities, Walaa said the impact would be reflected in its financial results for that period.
Mediterranean & Gulf Cooperative Insurance & Reinsurance Co., known as MEDGULF, said the new mechanism presents an opportunity to reassess its strategy regarding accepting additional reinsurance premiums from local insurers.
Tawuniya Co. also expressed optimism, saying that it would positively impact its revenues from the Saudi market.
“It is expected that positive financial impact will have an effect on 2025 financial results,” said Tawuniya.
Gulf Insurance Group and LIVA Insurance Co. have also said that the new mechanism is expected to contribute positively to their financial performance starting next year.
Bahrain Airshow concludes with key deals, record aircraft displays
- Three-day showcase attracted over 55,000 industry professionals and visitors
- Defense forums showcased advancements in combat technology
MANAMA: The Bahrain International Airshow 2024 concluded with a flurry of major business deals, including a contract between Bahrain’s Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications and Leonardo to modernize the country’s air traffic radar and surveillance systems.
The agreement is set to enhance Bahrain International Airport’s efficiency and safety through advanced primary and secondary radar technologies.
The seventh edition of the airshow, held on Nov. 13 — 15 at Sakhir Air Base, set a record with over 125 aircraft displayed, a 25 percent increase from the previous event.
The event saw Bahrain’s national carrier Gulf Air extending its long-standing collaboration with Amman-based Joramco, boosting maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities.
Other key agreements included a partnership between Infracorp and Mena Aerospace to develop specialized aircraft hangars to position Bahrain as a regional hub for advanced aviation services.
The event also saw Valo Aviation secure Bahrain’s first business jet operator license, with plans to operate 15 aircraft by 2026, and a strategic cybersecurity alliance between Iron Net and Asterion to bolster critical infrastructure protection.
Aircraft showcases
Debut appearances at the event included the US Department of Defense’s B-52H Stratofortress and flydubai’s latest static display models.
The three-day showcase, inaugurated by Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad on behalf of King Hamad, attracted over 40,000 industry professionals and visitors.
After touring the exhibition, Crown Prince Salman emphasized Bahrain’s focus on priority sectors as drivers of economic diversification, national development, and progress. He highlighted the role of the kingdom’s national talent in sustaining achievements and shaping future aspirations, according to the state news agency.
He underscored the importance of strategic sectors in supporting his country’s ambitions and contributing to its comprehensive development journey under the leadership of the monarch. He also reaffirmed Bahrain’s strong tradition of hosting successful international exhibitions and conferences, stressing the importance of maintaining this legacy.
Air displays included performances by the Saudi Hawks, Bahrain’s F-16s, and the US Navy’s P-8 Poseidon, showcasing their capabilities. Static displays featured a range of aircraft, including Gulf Air’s B787-9 and the Pakistan Air Force’s JF-17.
The Saudi Hawks team showcased green, red, and white trails in a nod to the strong ties between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
The Royal Saudi Air Force’s Typhoon, piloted by Maj. Faris bin Ali Al-Zahrani, demonstrated its capabilities with a series of maneuvers and high-speed passes.
Organized by Bahrain’s Ministry of Transportation, the Royal Bahrain Air Force, and Farnborough International, the event underscored the kingdom’s position as a global aviation hub.
Sustainability and innovation
Sustainability dominated discussions at the Airport and Airlines Forum, where executives from Gulf Air Group, Airbus, and Rolls-Royce explored the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel and net-zero technologies. Regulatory support and innovation were highlighted as essential to making sustainable aviation fuel commercially viable.
Mohammad Al-Khuraisi, vice president of strategy and business intelligence at the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation, said the agency’s participation in the Bahrain International Airshow highlights his country’s achievements in aviation, showcases the key pillars of the Kingdom’s aviation strategy, and presents future investment opportunities.
Ali Rajab, GACA’s executive vice president of Air Transport and International Cooperation, said the authority’s presence at the event underscores new regulations aimed at fostering growth and innovation in the aviation sector.
Rajab added that the Saudi aviation strategy, which targets $100 billion in investment and aims to increase annual passenger numbers to 330 million, serves as the foundation for these advancements.
Defense forums showcased advancements in combat technology, including autonomous systems, AI-driven cybersecurity, and electronic warfare, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between governments and the private sector.
Aviation milestones
Bahrain International Airport was recognized as the world’s first to receive the International Air Transport Association’s Environmental Assessment Certification, aligning with the kingdom’s broader sustainability goals.
Bahrain’s National Space Science Agency also announced an initiative to train 100 students in satellite image analysis and space science, part of its STEM-focused educational efforts.
Growing reputation
At a press conference, Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed, chairman of the airshow’s supreme organizing committee, expressed pride in its success in attracting leading global companies and organizations.
“This is by far the most successful international airshow hosted in Bahrain in terms of connectivity, engagement, and diversity,” said Sheikh Abdullah.
He added: “Bahrain is a strategic hub for the aviation industry, and this year, we are celebrating 75 years of aviation. Bahrain has consistently played a pivotal role in fostering regional growth and innovation.”
The chairman said the numerous agreements and deals signed during the event reflect Bahrain’s growing global stature, with the strong turnout of exhibitors, participants, and visitors further cementing the kingdom’s reputation as a hub for excellence and innovation.
Sheikh Abdullah highlighted Bahrain’s ongoing success in hosting major international events, positioning it as a preferred destination for business and innovation.
“This year’s edition of the airshow has already welcomed 40,000 international and regional aerospace professionals, delegates, and visitors, with expectations to surpass 55,000 by the end of the day.”
He also said that the airshow is a key driver for the aviation sector, aligning with Bahrain’s vision for technological advancement and creative growth.
With 177 organizations participating and 80 percent of exhibitors being international, the biennial event underscored Bahrain’s commitment to its Economic Vision 2030 by fostering investment, digital transformation, and sustainable growth.
Sustainable technologies, innovations discussed at COP29 to mitigate climate change
BAKU: Azerbaijan, an oil-producing country and host of the COP29 UN climate change conference, is focusing on green innovation and development, showcasing its efforts at the global gathering in Baku.
“We are collaborating with international companies and research institutions to ensure that COP29 showcases cutting-edge technologies in renewable energy, water management and carbon capture,” said Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 president.
Although Azerbaijan remains reliant on fossil fuels, it is working with international organizations and educational institutions to ensure that COP29 is not only about policies and funding, but also a platform for presenting environmental innovations.
“Our focus is on delivering a conference that fosters practical solutions, showcases Azerbaijan’s leadership in the energy transition, and reinforces our commitment to a sustainable and resilient future,” said Babayev.
According to an article by Elkhan Nuriyev, a global energy associate at the Brussels Energy Club and senior expert on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia at L&M Political Risk and Strategy Advisory in Vienna, published on the Ceeenergy News website: “The government has advocated for stronger commitments to enhancing financial mechanisms for green projects worldwide. A standout project is the ‘Green Energy Hub,’ a multi-faceted initiative focused on harnessing renewable energy sources. This hub includes large-scale solar farms, wind turbines and hydropower facilities, serving as a key export resource.”
In addition, an agreement was signed four years ago between Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy and Masdar, a UAE clean energy company, to establish the country’s first solar energy facility — the 230-megawatt Garadagh Solar Power Plant.
The project covers 550 hectares and features 570,000 bifacial photovoltaic panels, which capture both direct sunlight and the reflection of sunlight from the ground.
Masdar is not the only company involved in renewable energy technologies in Azerbaijan. Earlier this year, ACWA Power, a leader in the energy transition and a pioneer in green hydrogen, partnered with Azerbaijan’s national oil company, SOCAR, to develop projects that will accelerate renewable energy in the country.
According to ACWA Power’s website, the private company is “currently constructing Azerbaijan’s and the region’s largest 240 MW wind power plant in the Absheron-Khizi region at an investment cost of $345 million.”
As governments increasingly prioritize sustainability, the integration of innovative technologies is becoming a key demand for fostering both economic growth and environmental stewardship.
Saudi Arabia is also prioritizing sustainable development through its Vision 2030.
According to the Kingdom’s national source for government services and information, which outlines the Sustainable Development Goals of Saudi Vision 2030, “the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia endeavors to tackle the issues of poverty, inequality, climate change, prosperity, peace, justice, education, health, social protection and the availability of employment opportunities, and, recognizing the intersecting nature of these issues, ensures they are all included in its national strategy.”
In addition, many other technologies have been developed worldwide to combat climate change, including an innovative solution launched 2017 to develop renewable energy: solar-powered trains.
According to an article by Justyna Matuszak on the Know-How website, this type of green transportation can run for an entire day without needing to recharge. The railway also releases 75 percent of the energy it generates into the ground, as reported by the BBC.
Bladeless wind energy is another technology designed in 2012 by the Spanish startup Vortex Bladeless.
It features is an elastic rod that secures the company’s three-meter tall bladeless turbine vertically into the ground. According to the previously mentioned report, the turbine sways with the wind speed, generating energy from the resulting vibrations.
Due to its design, it is suitable for use in cities or residential areas as it does not require as much space as a traditional wind turbine.
Another new sustainable technology is 3D-printed solar energy trees. Developed by researchers at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, the technology, as described in the Know-How report by Matuszak, is a prototype tree that collects solar energy, heat and kinetic energy from its surroundings, whether indoors or outdoors, to generate electricity for small appliances.
By embracing modern sustainable innovations and fostering joint partnerships between the public and private sectors, tackling climate change may become more achievable.
