BEIRUT: They dug trenches around towns, reinforced caves for cover and put up sand bags around their positions. They issued calls to arms, urging young men to join in the defense of Idlib, the Syrian province where opposition fighters expect to make their last stand against Russian- and Iranian-backed government troops they have fought for years.
This time, it’s “surrender or die.”
As the decisive stand for their last stronghold looms, this motley crew of tens of thousands of opposition fighters, including some of the world’s most radical groups, is looking for ways to salvage whatever is possible of an armed rebellion that at one point in the seven-year conflict controlled more than half of the country.
In its last chapter, just as it has throughout the long, bloody war, the Syrian rebellion’s fate lies in foreign hands. This time, the splintered and diverse rebels have only Turkey.
“The whole world gave up on us, but Turkey will not,” said Capt. Najib Al-Mustafa, spokesman for the Turkish-backed umbrella group known as the National Front for Liberation.
Idlib, with its 3 million residents and more than 60,000 fighters, is Turkey’s cross to bear.
Ankara has appealed to Russia and Iran, its uneasy negotiating partners, for a diplomatic resolution to the ticking bomb. At the same time, it has sent reinforcements of its troops ringing Idlib, a move designed to ward off a ground assault, at least for now.
A wide offensive is only likely after a green light from Russia. But delicate diplomatic moves are at work. Moscow is keen on strengthening ties with Turkey, at a time when Ankara’s relations are at their lowest with the United States. Turkey, by calling on the United States and Europe for support, seems to be playing on that interest to pressure Russia to accept its proposals for a solution on Idlib that avoids an attack.
On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets for the second time in 10 days with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, this time in Sochi, Russia.
“After proving its influence in Syria and the Middle East, Russia wants to pull Turkey away from the West much more than achieve a military victory over the armed Syrian opposition,” Mustafa Ellabbad, an expert on Turkish-Arab relations, wrote in Kuwait’s Al-Qabas newspaper.
The province, the size of Lebanon, has been the beating heart of the rebellion for years. In rebel hands since 2015, it is the largest contiguous territory they controlled. It has access to Turkish borders, securing supply lines for weapons, fighters and aid.
For the past two years, Idlib became the shoe-box into which were pushed an estimated 20,000 rebel fighters from around the country, after their losses to government troops and surrender deals negotiated with Russia and Damascus following devastating sieges. Civilians who refused to go back under government rule were also bussed there, nearly doubling the province’s population.
Among the estimated 60,000 opposition fighters in Idlib are at least 10,000 radicals affiliated with the Al-Qaeda-linked group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (Arabic for Levant Liberation Committee). Thousands of foreign fighters, from China, Europe and the Middle East, are the backbone of the radical groups.
The Turkish reinforcements are going to 12 observation points that Ankara set up around Idlib last year under a deal with Russia and Iran creating a “de-escalation zone.” The deal also effectively stopped an earlier government advance and set Turkey up as Idlib’s protector.
Separately, Turkey has troops stationed in the enclave under its control north and east of Idlib, where it backs Syrian opposition fighters and a civilian administration. It is part of its plan to create a safe area along the border where some of the more than 3 million Syrian refugees it hosts may return.
Ankara initially sent in its troops more than two years ago to push out the Daesh group and Syrian Kurdish fighters. For Ankara, the increasingly assertive, US-backed Syrian Kurds were an existential threat that encourages the aspirations of its own Kurdish insurgents.
“In the mind of the rebellion, the hope is that from Turkish support they can have ... a republic of northern Syria, protected by Turkey like Northern Cyprus,” said Fabrice Balanche, a Syria watcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
These Turkey-administered areas are likely to be the destination of the displaced and rebels of Idlib in case of an offensive.
An Idlib offensive holds multiple threats for Turkey right on its border — a humanitarian crisis, a security nightmare with thousands of gunmen loose and a defeat to its plans for the safe zone. If Syrian forces retake Idlib with no agreement on the fate of the opposition fighters, they could threaten the Turkey-controlled enclave, and Ankara would lose credibility with the fighters and leverage with Damascus on any future deal.
“There is really no way for the Syrian military and Damascus’ allies to launch a military offensive on Idlib that doesn’t have deeply negative, injurious effects on Turkey. There is no real way they can cushion this for Turkey,” said Sam Heller, a Syria expert in the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Turkey’s strategy in the opposition areas has been complicated by the presence of radical fighters. By backing the National Front, it argued it can draw fighters away from the Al-Qaeda-linked HTS, the dominant power in the province, forcing it to dissolve and creating a new opposition force ready to negotiate with the Syrian government.
The strategy has had limited success.
The National Front in recent months gained control of territory in Idlib from HTS, which still controls nearly 70 percent of the province. HTS began to show signs of splits and two weeks ago, Turkey declared it a terrorist group.
But with the onset of a military offensive, HTS has set up joint operation rooms with different National Front factions.
Making a rare video appearance in late August, HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani — wearing an olive-green military uniform — vowed to fight Assad’s forces and said Turkish observation points were no protection.
The HTS spokesman in Idlib said now was not the time to talk about dissolving into Turkish-backed rebel groups. He underlined that an arrangement must eventually be made for the foreign fighters in the group.
“Right now, no sound is louder than that of the battle,” Imad Eddin Mujahed said. “We have many military surprises; enough to upset the balance and ward off aggressors.”
In rallies around Idlib the last two weeks, protesters took to the streets to deny that the province is a hotbed of extremists. Thousands raised only the flag of the Syrian revolution, a reminder that there was once a popular uprising against Assad, and Idlib is now its last bastion.
Some raised banners reading: “The rebels are our hope and the Turks are our brothers.”
Syrian forces and Iranian-backed militias are likely to avoid a clash with the Turkish troops. But the stance of the Syrian government and Iran is clear-cut: they vow to recapture all Syrian territory and are loath to see an expansion of Turkish and American influence. They argue the West fueled jihadis with past support of the opposition and now must let Syria get rid of them.
“Assad and Russia gave the choice to the international community: first we kill everybody. Second thing, (they said) if you want to protect (Idlib) then take those people you think are nice ... It is cynical but puts the international community before its contradictions,” said Balanche.
Al-Mustafa, the National Front spokesman, said the rebels are prepared for a battle he called “existential.”
But, he added, “our cause will not end if we lose this battle.”
Last stand: Syria’s rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle
Last stand: Syria’s rebel Idlib prepares for a losing battle
- Ankara has appealed to Russia and Iran, its uneasy negotiating partners, for a diplomatic resolution to the ticking bomb
- The province, the size of Lebanon, has been the beating heart of the rebellion for years
Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40 percent higher than recorded
PARIS: Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.
The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group’s unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.
Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.
However the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.
The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.
That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants,” the study said.
The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.
The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.
AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.
On Thursday, Gaza’s health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.
In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry’s figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.
The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture” that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.
The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.
The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.
The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.
“We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital,” lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.
The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.
“Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” Jamaluddine said.
Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.
Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached “a good estimate” for Gaza.
Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, told AFP there was “inevitably a lot of uncertainty” when making estimates from incomplete data.
But he said it was “admirable” that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.
“Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.
The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems — such as a heart attack — could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.
However there were other ways that the war’s toll could still be underestimated.
The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.
There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of health care, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.
In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.
The new study suggested that this projection “might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease” in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.
Jamaluddine said she expected that “criticism is going to come from different sides” about the new research.
She spoke out against the “obsession” of arguing about death tolls, emphasising that “we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”
What AI-agents and blockchain in a ‘Post Web’ world means for tech-savvy Middle East
- Web3 redefined the internet with “read, write, own,” but Post Web takes it further, enabling users to “delegate” tasks through AI agents
- Post Web shifts from attention-driven platforms to intention-based systems, with AI agents handling tasks autonomously
RIYADH: As blockchain and cryptocurrency drive the internet toward decentralization, the shift from Web 3.0 to Post Web is underway. And with a young, tech-savvy population and substantial investments in advanced technologies, the Middle East is poised for early adoption.
Building on this vision of a self-organizing, user-centered internet, Outlier Ventures, a London-based venture capital firm and accelerator specializing in Web3 and blockchain ecosystems, has announced the launch of its “Post Web Thesis.”
As predicted in Outlier Ventures’ 2016 “Convergence Thesis,” advancements in AI are merging with Web3 infrastructure to simplify the latter’s complexity.
Intuitive interfaces and automation now manage tasks like signing transactions, handling fees and bridging chains, making digital property rights and Web3 applications — or decentralized apps — more accessible and scalable through delegation.
“AI agents can now serve users by acting on their intent with a blend of deterministic precision and adaptive flexibility through hyper-contextual experiences,” Jamie Burke, Outlier Ventures CEO and founder, told Arab News.
“In essence, in the Post Web, users won’t just read, write and own — they will also have the ability to delegate.”
An AI agent, Burke says, is intelligent, autonomous software powered by AI to interpret intentions, gather context and execute tasks across decentralized networks, either independently or on behalf of users, with varying degrees of sovereignty.
Those agents will initially handle simple tasks, such as booking appointments, but can gain economic agency over time by interacting with distributed ledger technology such as blockchain, enabling users to perform tasks without a centralized authority.
Burke highlighted the Middle East and North Africa region as a prime candidate for early adoption of the Post Web, citing its young, tech-savvy population and significant investments in advanced technologies.
The region’s advantages could position it as a global hub for Post Web innovation and development, he said.
Opinion
This section contains relevant reference points, placed in (Opinion field)
Web3 defines the web’s “read-write-own” era. Its original goal was to create a decentralized internet using blockchain technology, giving users digital property rights and greater control over their data and assets.
Unlike Web 2.0’s reliance on centralized platforms, Web3, the latest evolution of the World Wide Web since Tim Berners-Lee’s creation in 1989, leverages blockchain technology to enable peer-to-peer interactions without intermediaries.
“Web3’s promise was to ‘unbundle’ the centralized platforms of the Web2 era, promoting greater control for users and peer-to-peer economic interactions,” Burke said.
“But a decade on we can see that mass adoption of its applications just isn’t going to be possible in its current form because, whilst it was a functional upgrade to the internet, Web3 ultimately still isn’t usable for the majority of the people.”
This sets the stage for the “Post Web Thesis,” which examines how the convergence of Web3 and AI could transform the internet.
Rather than operating within the constraints of the “attention economy,” this new paradigm envisions a shift toward an “intention economy” — one where user purpose and goals drive engagement and value creation.
“This shift will reimagine the web, moving from today’s human-centered interactions to a world where machines and autonomous agents act on our behalf through intent-based architectures,” said Burke.
This means that, in the near future, much of the consumer internet could be outsourced to intelligent agents that bypass search engines, price comparison websites and applications, instead accessing application programming interfaces and other agents directly to find information and compare services.
The Post Web’s intention economy seeks to prioritize users’ needs by seamlessly aligning their goals with counterparties through contextual, dynamic interfaces. This approach enables more valuable interactions while minimizing waste and reducing exploitation.
“This marks a profound shift toward an internet that organizes itself around solving real user needs, rather than mindlessly harvesting attention,” Burke said.
“We still believe that humans will interact with the web, but rather than spending hours searching for the best insurance for example or flights for a holiday, time will be spent with much more enriching engagements that people enjoy doing social, gaming and immersive shopping.”
And as AI agents handle most transactional activities and routine tasks in the background, the traditional web will largely fade away, making room for the “Thin Web.”
Inspired by Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, this streamlined web offers varying levels of immersion based on users’ personal and environmental contexts.
A simple example of how the Post Web will transform online experiences is booking a family holiday.
Traditional websites are often cluttered with ads for packages that do not fully meet a family’s needs, forcing users to make rushed or suboptimal decisions. Search engines, driven by optimization practices, frequently prioritize results based on rankings rather than quality.
“Paid advertisements and manipulation of organic rankings through search optimization often overwhelm users,” Burke said.
“While price comparison websites may seem like an alternative, these platforms also complicate matters. They typically prioritize results based on auction placements, and comparisons are rarely like-for-like.”
If a user is purchasing holiday insurance for a family with diverse ages and interests, a basic plan might not cover an advanced scuba diver, a beginner and another child who prefers surfing.
The more multidimensional and diverse the trip, the more complex and time-consuming the planning becomes.
In an intention economy, an AI agent compares policies across multiple dimensions, such as payout structures, activity-specific coverage and unique risk factors, Burke said.
“For example, they could recommend a product tailored to a family with an experienced scuba diver and novice scuba diver, factoring in skill level, diving conditions based on weather reports, and other nuances to ensure optimal coverage.”
In terms of cost-effectiveness, Burke says the Post Web eliminates inefficiencies in the consumer internet and “software as a service” sectors. It removes unnecessary intermediaries and aligns outcomes with user needs, resulting in faster, cheaper and better solutions.
DID YOUKNOW?
• In Outlier Ventures’ Post Web era, AI-driven agents will render search obsolete by acting directly on intent.
• The convergence of AI and blockchain will enable the agentic internet, where machines autonomously transact and collaborate.
• AI and Web3 could push organizations toward superfluidity, reducing friction and linking ideas and resources to fuel growth.
By enabling sellers to reach users without relying on interruptive advertising, it reduces costs for both buyers and sellers.
AI agents optimize the technology stack — compute, storage and networking — and replace inefficient centralized cloud systems. This benefits users and sellers but is a major loss for platforms profiting from the attention economy.
In addition to being a more cost-effective solution, the Post Web will lead to what Burke calls a “Supercycle.”
Burke believes these technologies will drive widespread adoption, bringing billions of users and real-world assets on-chain. This presents a valuable investment opportunity in digital assets, which will become crucial for powering the internet and its virtual supply chains.
Since these assets will reflect real-world supply and demand, they can be analyzed like traditional commodities, paving the way for billions in institutional and retail investments through exchange-traded funds and stock market indexes.
“It’s important to see the transition into the Post Web as a vision that will evolve and adapt over time,” he said.
“Web3 was first introduced 10 years ago and while we are sharing our vision for the Post Web now, we see this as an evolution that will evolve over the next 10 years.
“During this time the web as we know it will continue to evolve as AI agents manage more and more tasks on users’ behalf, and the most relevant technologies will converge into the Post Web, but others will become obsolete such as the app store and search.”
EU medical aid crosses into Syria from Turkiye
ISTANBUL: Some 55 tonnes of EU-funded medical supplies entered northwestern Syria from Turkiye on Thursday, a UN health official said.
Part of an EU air bridge to Syria, the supplies crossed Turkiye’s southern Cilvegozu border post and were taken to a warehouse in the northwestern city of Idlib, Mrinalini Santhanam of the World Health Organization said.
“There’s one more air bridge, and it is planned for February,” she said, adding that it was “still in the planning stages” with talks “to determine the volume and the scale.”
The supplies, distributed to Idlib and the Aleppo region health care centers, are part of an EU humanitarian bridge announced by Brussels on Dec. 13.
The aim is to support Syria’s battered healthcare system following the ouster of Bashar Assad on Dec. 8.
Included in the shipment were 8,000 emergency surgical kits, anesthetic supplies, IV fluids, sterilization materials, and medications to prevent disease outbreaks, the WHO said.
The civil war, which broke out in 2011, devastated Syria’s health care system, with “almost half of the hospitals (there) not functional,” WHO planning analyst Lorenzo Dal Monte said in late December.
He said the 50-tonne shipment from Dubai included “mainly trauma and surgical kits.”
Another five tonnes of supplies were brought in from another stockpile in Demark, including emergency health kits as well as winter clothing and water purification tablets, the WHO said.
Polish government to protect Israel's Netanyahu from arrest if he attends Auschwitz event
- It remains unclear if Netanyahu wanted to attend the event
- The Polish government vowed to ensure the safe participation of Israeli representatives
WARSAW: The Polish government adopted a resolution on Thursday vowing to ensure the free and safe participation of the highest representatives of Israel — including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who choose to attend commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau later in January.
Netanyahu became an internationally wanted suspect last year after the International Criminal Court (ICC), the world’s top war crimes court, issued an arrest warrant for him in connection with the war in the Gaza Strip, accusing him of crimes against humanity over the death of more than 45,000 Palestinians, the majority of them women and children, since October 2023.
“The Polish government treats the safe participation of the leaders of Israel in the commemorations on January 27, 2025, as part of paying tribute to the Jewish nation,” read the resolution published by the office of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
The government published the statement after Polish President Andrzej Duda asked Tusk to ensure that Netanyahu can attend without the risk of being arrested.
There had been reports suggesting that the ICC arrest warrant could prevent Netanyahu from traveling to Poland to attend observances marking the anniversary of the liberation in 1945 of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp by Soviet forces on Jan. 27.
Member countries of the ICC, such as Poland, are required to detain suspects facing a warrant if they set foot on their soil, but the court has no way to enforce that. Israel is not a member of the ICC and disputes its jurisdiction.
The court has more than 120 member states, though some countries, including France, have already said they would not arrest Netanyahu.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán even said he would defy the warrant by inviting him to Hungary.
It was not even clear if Netanyahu wanted to attend the event. The Polish Foreign Ministry said earlier Thursday that it has not received any information indicating that Netanyahu will attend the event.
US, French troops could secure Syria’s northern border, Syrian Kurdish official says
- Turkiye regards the YPG, which spearheads the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as a terrorist group linked to Kurdish PKK militants
- Ilham Ahmed: ‘We ask the French to send troops to this border to secure the demilitarised zone, to help us protect the region and establish good relations with Turkiye’
PARIS: Talks are taking place on whether US and French troops could secure a border zone in northern Syria as part of efforts to defuse conflict between Turkiye and Western-backed Kurdish Syrian forces, a senior Syrian Kurdish official said.
Ankara has warned that it will carry out a cross-border offensive into northeastern Syria against the Kurdish YPG militia if the group does not meet Turkish demands.
Turkiye regards the YPG, which spearheads the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as a terrorist group linked to Kurdish PKK militants who for 40 years have waged an insurgency against the Turkish state.
The SDF played an important role in defeating Daesh in Syria in 2014-17. The group still guards Daesh fighters in prison camps there, but has been on the back foot since rebels ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad on Dec. 8.
French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier this week that Paris would not abandon the SDF, which was one among a myriad of opposition forces during Syria’s 13-year-long civil war.
“The United States and France could indeed secure the entire border. We are ready for this military coalition to assume this responsibility,” Ilham Ahmed, co-chair of foreign affairs for the Kurdish administration in northern territory outside central Syrian government control, was quoted as saying by TV5 Monde.
“We ask the French to send troops to this border to secure the demilitarised zone, to help us protect the region and establish good relations with Turkiye.”
Neither France nor Turkiye’s foreign ministries immediately responded to requests for comment. The US State Department was not immediately available for comment.
It is unclear how receptive Turkiye would be to such an initiative, given Ankara has worked for years to secure its border against threats coming from Syria, and has vowed to destroy the YPG.
“As soon as France has convinced Turkiye to accept its presence on the border, then we can start the peace process,” Ahmed said. “We hope that everything will be settled in the coming weeks.”
A source familiar with the matter said such talks were going on, but declined to say how advanced or realistic they were.
Washington has been brokering ceasefire efforts between Turkish-backed groups and the SDF after fighting that broke out as rebel groups advanced on Damascus and overthrew Assad.
Addressing a news conference in Paris alongside outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot hinted that there were talks on the issue.
“The Syrian Kurds must find their place in this political transition. We owe it to them because they were our brothers in arms against Islamic State,” Barrot said.
“We will continue our efforts ... to ensure that Turkiye’s legitimate security concerns can be guaranteed, but also the security interests of (Syria’s) Kurds and their full rights to take part in the construction in the future of their country.”
Blinken said it was vital to ensure that the SDF forces continued the job of guarding more than 10,000 detained Daesh militants as this was a legitimate security interest for both the US and Turkiye.
“We have been working very closely with our ally ... Turkiye to navigate this transition ... It’s a process that will take some time,” Blinken said.
The US has about 2,000 troops in Syria who have been working with the SDF to prevent a resurgence of Daesh.
A French official said France still has dozens of special forces on the ground dating from its earlier support of the SDF, when Paris provided weapons and training.
