JERUSALEM: The accidental downing of a Russian plane with 15 soldiers on board has tested relations between Moscow and Israel, which fears President Vladimir Putin will seek to curtail its actions in Syria as a result.
Analysts say they believe Russia and Israel will eventually move past the incident without severely limiting Israel’s freedom of action in Syria, where it has carried out hundreds of strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets.
But Russia, whose plane was shot down by Syrian air defenses after an Israeli strike and strongly criticized Israel over it, has since announced it plans to send an advanced S-300 air defense system to the Syrian military.
It also says it will jam communications of planes that attack Syria from the Mediterranean.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far sought to strike a balance between expressing sorrow over the Russian deaths, stressing his commitment to cooperation with Moscow and vowing to continue to act against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.
“We will continue to act to prevent the Iranian military entrenchment in Syria, and continue the security coordination between the Israel Defense Forces and Russian army,” Netanyahu said Tuesday.
But Netanyahu’s government has little choice but to take into account Russia’s anger over the incident and the potential risk to Israeli aircraft, analysts say.
In deciding to provide Syria with the S-300 system, Russia overrode years of Israeli opposition to supplying President Bashar Assad’s regime with the technology.
Eran Lerman, former deputy director for foreign policy at Israel’s National Security Council, called it a “very serious issue” that could amount to an “intolerable situation from an Israeli perspective.”
But he added that it seems communication “channels remain open and operational.”
“We don’t work for the same purposes, but we have a common interest in preventing clashes,” said Lerman, adding that there are “mutual understandings” that can eventually prevail.
Israel and Russia put a hotline in place in 2015 to avoid accidental clashes in Syria.
In recent years, Israel has carried out repeated strikes against Iranian targets in Syria as well as what it says are advanced arms deliveries to Hezbollah.
It has hit Syrian sites where those targets were located.
Iran and Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah, two of Israel’s main enemies, are backing Assad in his country’s civil war alongside Russia.
Israel also remains technically at war with Syria.
The hotline — or “deconfliction mechanism” as diplomats refer to it — failed to prevent Russia’s Ilyushin Il-20 military plane being shot down on September 17 by Syrian air defenses.
Syria was responding to an Israeli strike, and Russia accused the Israeli pilots of using its larger plane as “cover” while only giving one minute of advance notice for their raid.
Israel strongly denied the Russian version of events.
In a further sign of the seriousness of the Russian reaction, Netanyahu convened a meeting of his security council on Tuesday to discuss the issue before flying to New York for the UN General Assembly.
He said afterwards that he had agreed with Putin to have Israeli and Russian military teams meet soon to enhance coordination.
But Israel sees the stakes as too high to accept severe limitations on its actions against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, some analysts said.
Its pilots have already been trained to deal with the threat of the S-300, they say.
As for the Russians, they have not forgotten the 1970 battle when Israeli Phantom and Mirage planes destroyed Soviet MiGs stationed in Egypt in a matter of minutes, said Efraim Inbar, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies
Lerman does not believe the Russians are looking to escalate the situation, not wanting to compromise their gains in Syria.
But he believes that Russia will try to use the September 17 incident as a “bargaining chip in the larger game that they are playing with the United States and the international community.”
Russian expert Vladimir Sotnikov also does not see a severe downturn in relations.
“Russia’s only concern for now is to reach a settlement in the Syrian conflict because its armed forces are there,” he said.
“Israel is a very important partner for Moscow. It is an ally of the United States, with whom Moscow wants to renew dialogue.”
Israel-Russia ties tested after plane downed over Syria
Israel-Russia ties tested after plane downed over Syria
- Analysts say they believe Russia and Israel will eventually move past the incident without severely limiting Israel’s freedom of action in Syria
- Netanyahu has so far sought to strike a balance between expressing sorrow over the Russian deaths
West faces ‘reckoning’ over Middle East radicalization: UK spy chief
- MI6 head Richard Moore cites ‘terrible loss of innocent life’
- ‘In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state’
LONDON: The West has “yet to have a full reckoning with the radicalizing impact of the fighting, the terrible loss of innocent life in the Middle East and the horrors of Oct. 7,” the head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service MI6 has warned.
Richard Moore made the comments in a speech delivered to the British Embassy in Paris, and was joined by his French counterpart Nicolas Lerner.
Moore said: “In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe, our shared European home, could hardly be more serious.”
Daesh is expanding its reach and staging deadly attacks in Iran and Russia despite suffering significant territorial setbacks, he added, warning that “the menace of terrorism has not gone away.”
In October last year, Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence service MI5, said his agency was monitoring for increased terror risks in the UK due to the Gaza war. More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza in over a year of fighting.
In Lebanon, a 60-day truce agreed this week between Hezbollah and Israel brought an end to a conflict that has killed thousands of Lebanese civilians.
Israel military strikes kill 32 Palestinians in Gaza, medics say
- Among the 32 killed, at least seven died in an Israeli strike on a house in central Gaza City
The Israeli military said it killed a Palestinian it accused of involvement in Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel in a vehicle strike in Gaza, and is investigating claims that the individual was an employee of aid group World Central Kitchen.
At least 32 Palestinians were killed in Israeli military strikes across Gaza overnight and into Saturday, with most casualties reported in northern areas, medics told Reuters.
Later on Saturday medics said seven people were killed when an Israeli air strike targeted a vehicle near a gathering of Palestinians receiving aid in the southern area of Khan Younis south of the enclave.
According to residents and a Hamas source, the vehicle targeted near a crowd receiving flour belonged to security personnel responsible for overseeing the delivery of aid shipments into Gaza.
Among the 32 killed, at least seven died in an Israeli strike on a house in central Gaza City, according to a statement from the Gaza Civil Defense and the official Palestinian news agency WAFA early on Saturday.
The Gaza Civil Defense also reported that one of its officers was killed in attacks in northern Gaza’s Jabalia, bringing the total number of civil defense workers killed since October 7, 2023, to 88.
Earlier on Saturday, WAFA reported that three employees of the World Central Kitchen, a US-based, non-governmental humanitarian agency, were killed when a civilian vehicle was targeted in Khan Younis, southern Gaza.
The World Central Kitchen has not yet commented on the incident.
Syria’s military ‘temporarily’ withdraws from Aleppo to prepare for counteroffensive
- Syrian military confirms militantss enter Aleppo, says dozens of soldiers killed
AMMAN: The Syrian military said on Saturday that dozens of its troops had been killed during an militant attack in northwestern Syria and that militants had managed to enter large parts of Aleppo city, forcing the army to redeploy.
The Syrian military statement was the first public acknowledgement by the army that insurgents led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham had entered the government-held city of Aleppo in a surprise attack that began earlier this week.
“The large numbers of terrorists and the multiplicity of battlefronts prompted our armed forces to carry out a redeployment operation aimed at strengthening the defense lines in order to absorb the attack, preserve the lives of civilians and soldiers, and prepare for a counterattack,” the army said.
The insurgent attack marks the most significant challenge in years to President Bashar Assad, jolting the frontlines of the Syrian civil war that have largely been frozen since 2020.
The Syrian military statement said that the insurgents had not been able to establish fixed positions in Aleppo city due to the army’s continued bombardment of their positions.
Two Syrian military sources said earlier that Russian and Syrian warplanes targeted insurgents in an Aleppo suburb on Saturday. Russia deployed its air force to Syria in 2015 to aid Assad in the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.
The insurgent force began its surprise offensive earlier this week, sweeping through government-held towns and reaching Aleppo nearly a decade after government forces backed by Russia and Iran drove militants from the city.
Speaking on Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow regarded the militant attack as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty. “We are in favor of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible,” he said.
Israel says it struck Hezbollah weapons smuggling sites in Syria, testing a fragile ceasefire
- ‘Military infrastructure’ at the Syria-Lebanon border being used by Hezbollah for weapons smuggling
TEL AVIV: Israeli aircraft struck Hezbollah weapons smuggling sites along Syria’s border with Lebanon, the Israeli military said Saturday, testing a fragile, days-old ceasefire that halted months of fighting between the sides but has seen continued sporadic fire.
The military said it struck sites that had been used to smuggle weapons from Syria to Lebanon after the ceasefire took effect, which the military said was a violation of its terms. There was no immediate comment from Syrian authorities or activists monitoring the conflict in that country. Hezbollah also did not immediately comment.
The Israeli strike, the latest of several since the ceasefire began on Wednesday, came as unrest spread to other areas of the Middle East, with Syrian insurgents breaching the country’s largest city, Aleppo, in a shock offensive that added fresh uncertainty to a region reeling from multiple wars.
The truce between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, brokered by the United States and France, calls for an initial two-month ceasefire in which the militants are to withdraw north of Lebanon’s Litani River and Israeli forces are to return to their side of the border.
The repeated bursts of violence — with no reports of serious casualties — reflected the uneasy nature of the ceasefire that otherwise appeared to hold. While Israel has accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire, Lebanon has also accused Israel of the same in the days since it took effect.
Many Lebanese, some of the 1.2 million displaced in the conflict, were streaming south to their homes, despite warnings by the Israeli and Lebanese militaries to stay away from certain areas.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that an Israeli drone attacked a car in the southern village of Majdal Zoun. The agency said there had been casualties but gave no further details. Majdal Zoun, near the Mediterranean Sea, is close to where Israeli troops still have a presence.
The military said earlier Saturday that its forces, who remain in southern Lebanon until they withdraw gradually over the 60-day period, had been operating to distance “suspects” in the region, without elaborating, and said troops had located and seized weapons found hidden in a mosque.
Israel says it reserves the right under the ceasefire to strike against any perceived violations. Israel has made returning the tens of thousands of displaced Israelis home the goal of the war with Hezbollah but Israelis, concerned Hezbollah was not deterred and could still attack northern communities, have been apprehensive about returning home.
Hezbollah began attacking Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas and its assault on southern Israel the day before. Israel and Hezbollah kept up a low-level conflict of cross-border fire for nearly a year, until Israel escalated its fight with a sophisticated attack that detonated hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters. It followed that up with an intense aerial bombardment campaign against Hezbollah assets, killing many of its top leaders including longtime chief Hassan Nasrallah, and it launched a ground invasion in early October.
More than 3,760 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon during the conflict, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The fighting killed more than 70 people in Israel — over half of them civilians — as well as dozens of Israeli soldiers fighting in southern Lebanon.
Militants control ‘most of’ Aleppo city, Syria war monitor says
- Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport as well as all roads leading into the city on Saturday
BEIRUT: A monitor of Syria’s war said Saturday militants now controlled a majority of Aleppo city, reporting Russian air strikes on parts of Syria’s second city for the first time since 2016.
“Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions... took control of most of the city and government centers and prisons,” said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, adding that overnight, Russian “warplanes launched raids on areas of Aleppo city for the first time since 2016.”
Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport as well as all roads leading into the city on Saturday, three military sources said, as militants opposed to President Bashar Assad said they had reached the heart of Aleppo.
The opposition fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, carried out a surprise sweep through government-held towns this week and reached Aleppo nearly a decade after having been forced out by Assad and his allies.
Russia, one of Assad’s key allies, has promised Damascus extra military aid to thwart the militants, two military sources said, adding new hardware would start arriving in the next 72 hours.
The Syrian army has been told to follow “safe withdrawal” orders from the main areas of the city that the militants have entered, three army sources said.
The militants began their incursion on Wednesday and by late Friday an operations room representing the offensive said they were sweeping through various neighborhoods of Aleppo.
HIGHLIGHTS
• Militants opposed to Assad return to city after nearly a decade
• Aleppo airport has been closed, military sources say
• Damascus expects Russian hardware to arrive soon, sources say
They are returning to the city for the first time since 2016, when Assad and his allies Russia, Iran, and regional Shiite militias retook it, with the insurgents agreeing to withdraw after months of bombardment and siege.
Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish Al-Izza militant brigade, said their speedy advance this week had been helped by a lack of Iran-backed manpower in the broader Aleppo province. Iran’s allies in the region have suffered a series of blows at the hands of Israel as the Gaza war has expanded through the Middle East.
The opposition fighters have said the campaign was in response to stepped-up strikes in recent weeks against civilians by the Russian and Syrian air force on areas in militant-held Idlib, and to preempt any attacks by the Syrian army.
Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkiye, which supports the militants, had given a green light to the offensive.
But Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said on Friday that Turkiye sought to avoid greater instability in the region and had warned recent attacks undermined de-escalation agreements.
The attack is the biggest since March 2020, when Russia and Turkiye agreed to a deal to de-escalate the conflict.
CIVILIANS KILLED IN FIGHTING
On Friday, Syrian state television denied militants had reached the city and said Russia was providing Syria’s military with air support.
The Syrian military said it was fighting back against the attack and had inflicted heavy losses on the insurgents in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib.
David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, said: “We’re deeply alarmed by the situation unfolding in northwest Syria.”
“Relentless attacks over the past three days have claimed the lives of at least 27 civilians, including children as young as 8 years old.”
Syrian state news agency SANA said four civilians including two students were killed on Friday in Aleppo by insurgent shelling of university student dormitories. It was not clear if they were among the 27 dead reported by the UN official.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Moscow regarded the militant attack as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.
“We are in favor of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible,” he said.
