PARIS: The world’s nations will gather at a UN conference in South Korea on Monday to review and approve a 20-page bombshell — distilled from more than 6,000 scientific studies — laying out narrowing options for staving off climate catastrophe.
When the 195 countries who signed off on the Paris Agreement in 2015 requested a report from UN-led scientists on the feasibility of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the gesture seemed to many unnecessary.
The treaty, after all, enjoined the world to block the rise in Earth’s surface temperature at “well below” 2C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels, adding a safety buffer to the two-degree threshold long seen as the guardrail for a climate-safe world.
Since then, however, a crescendo of deadly heat waves, floods, wildfires and superstorms engorged by rising seas — with less than 1C warming so far — has convinced scientists that the danger cursor needed to be reset.
“There is increasing and very robust evidence of truly severe and catastrophic risks even at the lower bounds of these temperature targets,” said Peter Frumhoff, director of science and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a Washington-based research and advocacy group.
The promise of “pursuing efforts” to limit warming to 1.5C — added to the Paris treaty at the last minute, in part to assuage poor nations who felt short-changed on other fronts — caught scientists off-guard.
“There wasn’t very much literature on 1.5C warming three years ago,” said Jim Skea, a professor of at Imperial College London’s Center for Environmental Policy, and a co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), the UN science body charged with writing the “Special Report” on 1.5C.
Of hundreds of climate models in 2015 projecting a low-carbon future, only two or three aimed for a 1.5C global warming cap.
The 20-page Summary Policy Makers — which will be collectively scrutinized, line-by-line, by hundreds of diplomats through Friday — contains several benchmark findings, according to a draft obtained by AFP.
At current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, for example, the Earth’s surface will heat up beyond the 1.5C threshold by 2040, the report concludes with “high confidence.”
To have a fighting chance of staying under the 1.5C cap, the global economy must, by 2050, become “carbon neutral,” meaning no additional CO2 can be allowed to leach into the atmosphere.
In addition, the report suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity will need to peak in 2020 and curve sharply downward from there.
So far, we are still moving in the wrong direction: after remaining stable for three years — raising hopes the peak had come — emissions rose in 2017 to historic levels.
For many scientists, these targets are technically feasible but politically or socially unrealistic, along with the broader 1.5C goal.
“The feasibility is probably going to remain an open question, even after the report comes out,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.
A main focus of the underlying, 400-page report — written by a team of 86 authors, supported by another 150 scientists — is the difference a half-degree Celsius can make in terms of impacts.
“When we’re talking about 1.5C it’s not just to protect a few dozen small island nations,” said Henri Waisman, a senior researcher at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, and a coordinating author of the report.
“It’s to avoid dramatic impacts that become exponentially more dramatic when we go from 1.5C to 2C.”
What used to be once-a-century heatwaves in southern and central Europe, for example, are projected to occur four out of 10 summers in a 1.5C world, and six out of ten in a 2C world.
Many tropical fisheries are likely to collapse somewhere between the 1.5C and 2C benchmark, as fish seek cooler waters; staple food crops will decline in yield and nutrition an extra 10 to 15 percent; coral reefs that may have a chance of surviving if air temperatures remain below 1.5C will very likely perish with an additional half-degree of warming.
Most worrying of all, perhaps, are temperature “tipping points” that could push methane-laden permafrost and the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica — which hold enough frozen water to lift global oceans by a dozen meters (nearly 40 feet) — beyond the point of no return.
Some experts, however, worry that focusing on the contrast between a 1.5C and 2C world obscures the fact we are currently on a trajectory that will crash through both these thresholds.
“I don’t think 2C is safe, and I would never want to argue it,” said Frumhoff. “By many measures, 1.5C is not enough.”
“But while we might call 2C an upper bound, let’s not pretend that we’re on a 2C path — we are way above that,” he told AFP.
Even taking into account voluntary national pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions, submitted in an annex to the Paris treaty, the Earth is on track to heat up by an unliveable 3.5C or more by century’s end.
“If we want to save ourselves from the disasters that are looming, we only have unrealistic options left,” said Kaisa Kosonen, Greenpeace IPPC campaign lead.
“We have to try to make the impossible possible.”
UN report confronts nations with tough choices on climate
UN report confronts nations with tough choices on climate
- The treaty in 2015 enjoined the world to block the rise in Earth’s surface temperature at “well below” 2C
G20 leaders gather for deadlocked talks on climate, Middle East, Ukraine wars
- Wars which have bitterly divided G20 members are set to feature prominently in discussions in Brazil
- Biden will attend his last summit of world’s leading economies with China’s XI as the most influential leader
Rio de Janeiro: G20 leaders began arriving for a summit in Brazil on Monday to try reignite deadlocked climate talks and overcome their differences on the Middle East and Ukraine wars ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
US President Joe Biden will attend his last summit of the world’s leading economies, but as a lame duck leader eclipsed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the most influential leader at this year’s meeting.
Brazil’s left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is using his hosting duties to promote issues close to his heart, including fighting hunger and climate change and taxing the super-rich.
But the wars which have bitterly divided G20 members are also set to feature prominently in the discussions.
A Brazilian foreign ministry source said Monday that some countries wanted to renegotiate a draft summit communique.
“For Brazil and other countries the text is already finalized, but some countries want to open up some points on wars and climate,” he told AFP.
Biden’s decision Sunday to allow Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to strike targets inside Russia — a major policy shift — could prompt European allies to also review their stance.
G20 leaders are also under pressure to try rescue UN climate talks in Azerbaijan, which have stalled on the issue of greater climate finance for developing countries.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for G20 members, who account for 80 percent of global emissions, to show “leadership” to facilitate a deal.
Security is tight for the gathering, which comes days after a failed bomb attack on Brazil’s Supreme Court in Brasilia by a suspected far-right extremist, who killed himself in the process.
The get-together will cap a farewell diplomatic tour by Biden which took him to Lima for a meeting of Asia-Pacific trading partners, and then to the Amazon in the first such visit for a sitting US president.
Biden, who has looked to burnish his legacy as time runs down on his presidency, insisted in the Amazon that his climate record would survive another Trump mandate.
All eyes at the stalled COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan are on Rio to break an impasse over how to raise $1 trillion a year for developing countries to cope with global warming.
Rich countries want fast-developing economies like China and Gulf states to also put their hands in their pockets.
The meeting comes in a year marked by another grim litany of extreme weather events, including Brazil’s worst wildfire season in over a decade, fueled by a record drought blamed at least partly on climate change.
At the last G20 in India, leaders called for a tripling of renewable energy sources by the end of the decade, but without explicitly calling for an end to the use of fossil fuels.
Conspicuously absent from the summit is Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose arrest is sought by the International Criminal Court over the Ukraine war.
Lula, 79, told Brazil’s GloboNews channel on Sunday that he did not want the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to take the focus off global poverty.
“Because if not, we will not discuss other things which are more important for people that are not at war, who are poor people and invisible to the world,” he said.
The summit opens on Monday with Lula, a former steelworker who grew up in poverty, launching a “Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty.”
Brazil is also pushing for higher taxes on billionaires.
Lula had faced resistance to parts of his agenda from Argentinian President Javier Milei, a libertarian Trump uber-fan who met the Republican last week at his Mar-a-Lago resort.
The head of the Argentine delegation, Federico Pinedo, told AFP that Buenos Aires has raised some objections and would not “necessarily” sign the text, however. He did not elaborate.
But the Brazilian foreign ministry source on Monday downplayed the likelihood of Argentina blocking a consensus.
Why has ethnic violence escalated in India’s Manipur state again?
- On May 3, 2023, members of the Kuki and Naga tribes launched protest against extension of benefits to dominant Meiteis
- Latest violence flared this month after 31-year-old woman from Kuki tribe was found burned to death in a village in Jiribam district
Hundreds of people defied a curfew to stage demonstrations in India’s northeastern state of Manipur over the weekend and 23 were arrested for violence as tensions between two ethnic communities flared up again.
These are the reasons behind the violence in the border state.
HOW DID THE MANIPUR VIOLENCE BEGIN?
On May 3, 2023, members of the Kuki and Naga tribes, who inhabit Manipur’s hills and are regarded as Scheduled Tribes, or India’s most disadvantaged groups, launched a protest against the possible extension of their benefits to the dominant Meiteis.
The Meitei have sought special benefits for more than a decade, but received a fillip in April last year after the Manipur High Court recommended the state government should consider the demand and set a deadline of mid-May.
Meiteis account for half of Manipur’s population and extending limited affirmative action quotas to them would mean they would get a share of education and government jobs reserved for Kukis and Nagas.
Meiteis have traditionally lived in Manipur’s more prosperous valley region that makes up 10 percent of the state’s area.
They have also had better access to employment and economic opportunities. Nagas and Kukis live in the poorly developed hill regions.
The imbalance in development that has favored the valley over the hills has been a point of contention and rivalry between the ethnic groups.
WHAT WERE THE TRIGGERS?
The groups co-existed peacefully until unrelated events in 2023 exposed old faultlines.
Manipur shares a nearly 400-km (250-mile) border with Myanmar and the coup there in 2021 pushed thousands of refugees into the Indian state.
Kukis share ethnic lineage with Myanmar’s Chin tribe and Meiteis feared they would be outnumbered by the arrival of the refugees.
WHY IS PEACE YET TO RETURN?
Both the Meiteis and Kukis are known to be flush with arms, including automatic weapons either stolen from the state police or sourced from Myanmar.
The Indian Army and federal paramilitary forces in the state cannot act independently and are legally bound to work with state police and authorities, who analysts say are also divided along ethnic lines.
Kukis also accuse Biren Singh, the chief minister of the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled state and a Meitei, of complicity in violence against them and have sought his removal. Singh denies the accusations.
WHAT IS BEHIND THE LATEST SPIRAL OF VIOLENCE?
The latest violence flared this month after a 31-year-old Kuki woman was found burned to death in a village in Jiribam district, an area that was untouched by the conflict until June.
Kuki groups blamed Meitei militants for the act.
Kukis and Meiteis have moved to separate parts elsewhere in Manipur since the clashes last year but Jiribam still has a mixed population, leading to tensions and violence.
Days after the incident, 10 armed Kuki men were killed in a gunfight with security forces after they tried to attack a police station in Jiribam district, and security forces retaliated. During this gunfight, a Meitei family of six people went missing.
On Friday, bodies of three of the six were found floating in a river, triggering angry protests in the state capital Imphal. Police said on Sunday they had arrested 23 people for ransacking and setting fire to the homes of lawmakers and ministers, in a second straight day of unrest in the area.
Emergency declared as smog in New Delhi hits highest level this year
- New Delhi was the world’s most polluted city on Monday, according to IQAir
- PM 2.5 concentration was 138.4 times higher than WHO’s recommended levels
NEW DELHI: New Delhi was in a medical emergency on Monday as toxic smog engulfing the Indian capital reached the highest level this year, prompting authorities to close schools and urge people to stay indoors.
Pollution in Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area — home to around 55 million people — reached the “severe plus” category as some areas reached an Air Quality Index score of 484, this year’s highest, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
On the AQI scale from 0 to 500, good air quality is represented by levels below 50, while levels above 300 are dangerous.
Delhi was ranked as the most polluted city in the world on Monday by Swiss group IQAir, with a concentration of PM 2.5, 138.4 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended levels.
“All of North India has been plunged into a medical emergency,” Delhi Chief Minister Atishi Marlena Singh said in a press conference, adding that many cities were “reeling under severe levels of pollution.”
She said farm fires, where stubble left after harvesting rice is burnt to clear fields, were causing the extreme levels of pollution.
“Why is the (central government) not taking action against these states and implementing concrete steps? People are unable to breathe. I am getting calls from people complaining about breathing and respiratory issues,” she said.
“All of North India is paying the price for this, especially children and elderly who are struggling to breathe.”
Authorities in Delhi have directed all schools to move classes online and tightened restrictions on construction activities and vehicle movements.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at forecast company Skymet Weather, said people in the capital region are faced with serious health risks.
“If they are non-smokers, then they will also inhale at least 30 to 40 cigarettes per day (at these pollution levels). So, you can imagine how bad it is for our health,” he told Arab News.
“PM 2.5 is a very minute particle (that can be inhaled). It is so minute that it can go into our blood vessels also, so it is very harmful and leads to various diseases, particularly for older people and infants who have breathing problems.”
Palawat is expecting the air quality to remain at this level for at least a few more days.
“It will remain in the very poor to serious category in coming days also,” he said.
Emergency declared in New Delhi as smog hits highest level this year
- New Delhi was the world’s most polluted city on Monday, according to IQAir
- PM 2.5 concentration was 138.4 times higher than WHO’s recommended levels
New Delhi: New Delhi was in a state of ‘medical emergency’ on Monday as toxic smog engulfing the Indian capital reached the highest levels this year, prompting authorities to close schools and urge people to stay indoors.
Pollution in Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area — home to around 55 million people — reached the “severe plus” category as some areas reached an Air Quality Index score of 484, this year’s highest, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.
On the AQI scale from 0 to 500, good air quality is represented by levels below 50, while levels above 300 are dangerous.
Delhi was ranked as the most polluted city in the world on Monday by Swiss group IQAir, with a concentration of PM 2.5, 138.4 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended levels.
“All of North India has been plunged into a medical emergency,” Delhi Chief Minister Atishi Marlena Singh said in a press conference, adding that many cities were “reeling under severe levels of pollution.”
She said farm fires, where stubble left after harvesting rice is burnt to clear fields, were causing extreme levels of pollution.
“Why is the (central government) not taking action against these states and implementing concrete steps? People are unable to breathe. I am getting calls from people complaining about breathing and respiratory issues,” she said.
“All of North India is paying the price for this, especially children and elderly who are struggling to breathe.”
Authorities in Delhi have directed all schools to move classes online and tightened restrictions on construction activities and vehicle movements.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of meteorology and climate change at forecast company Skymet Weather, said people in the capital region are faced with serious health risks.
“If they are non-smokers, then they will also inhale at least 30 to 40 cigarettes per day (at these pollution levels). So, you can imagine how bad it is for our health,” he told Arab News.
“PM 2.5 is a very minute particle (that can be inhaled). It is so minute that it can go into our blood vessels also, so it is very harmful and leads to various diseases, particularly for older people and infants who have breathing problems.”
Palawat is expecting the air quality to remain at this level for at least a few more days.
“It will remain in the very poor to serious category in coming days also,” he said.
Palestinian NGO to ask UK court to block F-35 parts to Israel over Gaza war
- West Bank-based Al-Haq is taking legal action against Britain’s Department for Business and Trade at London’s High Court
LONDON: Britain is allowing parts for F-35 fighter jets to be exported to Israel despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, lawyers for a Palestinian rights group told a London court on Monday.
West Bank-based Al-Haq, which documents alleged rights violations by Israel and the Palestinian Authority, is taking legal action against Britain’s Department for Business and Trade at London’s High Court.
Israel has been accused of violations of international humanitarian law in the Gaza war, with the UN Human Rights Office saying nearly 70 percent of fatalities it has verified were women and children, a report Israel rejected.
Israel says it takes care to avoid harming civilians and denies committing abuses and war crimes in the conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Al-Haq’s case comes after Britain in September suspended 30 of 350 arms export licenses, though it exempted the indirect export of F-35 parts, citing the impact on the global F-35 program.
Al-Haq argues that decision was unlawful as there is a clear risk F-35s could be used in breach of international humanitarian law.
British government lawyers said in documents for Monday’s hearing that ministers assessed Israel had committed possible breaches of international humanitarian law (IHL) in relation to humanitarian access and the treatment of detainees.
Britain also “accepts that there is clear risk that F-35 components might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of IHL,” its lawyer James Eadie said.
Eadie added that Britain had nonetheless decided that F-35 components should still be exported, quoting from advice to defense minister John Healey that suspending F-35 parts “would have a profound impact on international peace and security.”
A full hearing of Al-Haq’s legal challenge is likely to be heard early in 2025.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 43,800 people have been confirmed killed since the war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023.
Hamas militants killed around 1,200 people in attacks on communities in southern Israel that day, and hold dozens of some 250 hostages they took back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
