LONDON: Oil prices approaching $100 per barrel, as some forecasts suggest, would set in motion a “trickle down” effect, boosting GCC prosperity and growth in both the private and public sectors, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
In an interview with Arab News, Garbis Iradian, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa region at the Washington-based IIF, said Saudi Arabia should see GDP growth of between 2 percent and 2.2 percent in 2018, compared with a contraction of 0.9 percent last year.
IIF is predicting an average oil price this year of $74 a barrel but Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA) has suggested that the price could peak at close to $100.
BoA said in a note to clients: “Brent is up more than 30 percent this year. The team now expect … $95 a barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019 (as Iranian and Venezuelan output fall sharply).”
The trickle-down effect of a strong oil price for the GCC economies is crucial, said Iradian. “Of course, official reserves will rise, current account surpluses will grow and fiscal deficits will narrow,” he said, speaking about the region overall.
“But when you have a high oil price, private-sector confidence improves. The banking system strengthens, liquidity improves, and there is a greater appetite for spending by government, businesses and individuals, that feeds through to higher private and public investment in non-oil sectors — and this is crucial in the context of Vision 2030,” he added, referring to Saudi Arabia’s reform program.
He envisaged an upswing in government spending in 2018 — by about 15 percent across the GCC — thanks to higher oil revenues.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Arab News that as far as UAE was concerned, “the most immediate boost to non-oil activity will come from an increase in direct government spending in the economy.”
Iradian said higher oil revenues would more than offset the rise in public spending. On top of that, non-oil government revenue is improving, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — from fees on expats, the introduction of value added tax (VAT) and fiscal stimulus measures.
Malik emphasized that she saw the UAE as “one of the most resilient economies in the region,” and reckoned that non-oil growth probably bottomed in 2017 and 2018 and therefore “we see a gradual pick-up in real non-oil GDP growth in 2019 as the drag from the introduction of VAT earlier this year wanes and the fiscal stance loosens.”
Richard Boxshall, an economist at PwC, said growing confidence in the GCC would ultimately depend on how long the oil price stays high. But assuming it did, “a lot of new investments in cities, solar parks and so on were more likely to be accelerated, and also new initiatives in the private sector approved,” he said.
Salaries and recruitment would likely rise, with more discretionary spending coming through, bolstering the sale of goods and services, according to Boxshall.
Iradian said the fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia and the UAE was “now on a firmer footing.”
Next year, KSA’s private sector should show solid signs of uplift and possibly doubling, assuming that oil holds above $70 a barrel, Iradian said.
Nevertheless, he added: “MENA countries should take concrete steps to improve the business climate and empower the private sector to achieve higher and more sustainable growth.
“To this end, laws and regulations governing business and investment should be revamped to draw on best practices in successful emerging economies and promote fairness, transparency, and predictability.”
There were several positive factors at play in KSA, said Iradian. Oil output is increasing, unlike in 2017 when production fell. Government spending on both upstream and downstream operations (such as petrochemicals) is rising; non-oil private sector growth would flatline at around 0.5 percent in 2018, but that could change next year as long as oil stayed strong. For now, Iradian forecasts that KSA’s non-oil GDP growth in 2018 would be around 1 percent.
One possible cloud on the horizon for the dollar-pegged GCC economies is higher interest rates and dollar appreciation which could partially, but by no means totally, dampen consumer confidence.
With little oil, Dubai is dependent on foreign investment and tourism, as well as property and retail spending — “so the rising interest rate environment could present challenges for them,” said Iradian.
But he still forecasts a 2018 growth rate for the UAE of 2.4 percent, only slightly lower than 2017 when it was 2.7 percent. Interest rate rises are forecast to be incremental both this year and next.
For KSA, major structural issues relating to the labor force — such as better vocational training — remain to be further tackled, said Iradian. That would allow Saudi nationals to fill jobs in the private and public sectors that up to now have been taken by expats.
Iradian cautioned that a growth rate of around 2 percent was “not enough to create sufficient additional jobs” for KSA nationals.
“It would take time before ‘higher end’ jobs in banking and elsewhere would be filled by Saudis. There was still work to be done to open up the private sector,” he said.
“But I think they are determined to continue with these reforms … The Saudi economy needs to grow 4 or 5 percent on a sustained basis to create enough jobs for the new entrants to the labor force (including female) to reduce unemployment.”
Boxshall said one negative from higher oil prices could be a softening of the focus on the diversification agenda. “The countries have made tremendous progress, (but) higher oil price could remove the urgency to change.”
“Next year will be interesting. If oil goes into 2019 strong and it looks sustainable, then we really might start to feel major benefits,” said Boxshall.
A recent IIF report warned that risks included slower implementation of reforms, which would undermine private investment; faster-than-expected US monetary tightening; an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region and/or a worsening trade war between the US and China.
GCC to reap massive dividend as oil prices rise
GCC to reap massive dividend as oil prices rise
- IIF is predicting an average oil price this year of $74 a barrel but Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA) has suggested that the price could peak at close to $100
- BoA said in a note to clients: Brent is up more than 30 percent this year. The team now expect … $95 a barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019
Oil Updates — prices edge higher on hopes for more China stimulus
TOKYO: Oil prices edged higher on Thursday in thin holiday trading, driven by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, while an anticipated decline in US crude inventories also provided support, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $73.80 a barrel by 07:50 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.34 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, from Tuesday’s pre-Christmas settlement.
China plans to boost fiscal support for consumption next year by increasing pensions and medical insurance subsidies for residents and expanding trade-ins for consumer goods, according to a finance ministry announcement on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing two sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
“Crude oil prices have risen this week, driven by news that Chinese authorities are implementing a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus to boost their struggling economy,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
“Additionally, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, which indicates healthy demand, has also supported prices.”
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, said expectations of increasing fossil fuel production and demand after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month are also bolstering oil prices.
An extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday that crude inventories are expected to have fallen by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20. Gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels, respectively.
US crude oil and distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
The latest data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, is due at 9:00 p.m. Saudi time on Friday.
On the supply side, Libya's National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Wednesday that the country's average crude production in 2024 exceeded its target of around 1.4 million barrels per day.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,892
- Parallel market Nomu gained 86.66 points, or 0.28%, to close at 31,007.06
- MSCI Tadawul Index lost 3.16 points, or 0.21%, to close at 1,493.74
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Wednesday, losing 21.63 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 11,892.32.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR2.79 billion ($746 million), as 132 of the stocks advanced and 86 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 86.66 points, or 0.28 percent, to close at 31,007.06. This comes as 49 of the listed stocks advanced, while 29 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 3.16 points, or 0.21 percent, to close at 1,493.74.
The best-performing stock of the day was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share price surged 8.33 percent to SR0.52.
Other top performers included Red Sea International Co., whose share price rose 6.32 percent to SR60.60 and Saudi Industrial Development Co., whose share price surged 5.07 percent to SR30.05.
MBC Group Co. recorded the biggest drop, falling 3.31 percent to SR52.50.
Bawan Co. also saw its stock prices fall 3.05 percent to SR54.10.
Savola Group saw its stock prices drop 2.97 percent to SR35.90.
On the announcements front, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, has announced acquiring a full stake of Mosaic Phosphate in Waad Al-Shamal Phosphate Co.
According to a Tadawul statement, the financial impact of the acquisition will be reflected in the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ending Dec.31.
Ma’aden ended the session at SR49.20, up 0.61 percent.
Kingdom Holding Co. has announced the acquisition of an additional stake in xAI, with a total investment of SR 1.5 billion, as part of xAI’s Series C funding round.
A bourse filing revealed that the transaction comes after KHC’s previous investment of the same amount in xAI during its Series B funding round.
The move falls in line with KHC’s strategic collaboration with Elon Musk, and also follows its strategic stake in X, formerly known as Twitter, held since 2015. xAI is an artificial intelligence firm established by Elon Musk and a team of top-notch engineers to build AI to further accelerate human scientific discovery as a whole.
KHC ended the session at SR9.35, up 0.88 percent.
Bank Al-Jazira has announced its intention to issue Additional Tier 1 Sukuk under its SR 5 billion Additional Tier 1 Capital Sukuk Issuance Program by way of private placement in Saudi Arabia.
According to a Tadawul statement, the bank has mandated Al-Jazira Capital, Al-Rajhi Capital and HSBC Saudi Arabia as joint lead managers and dealers for the potential offer. The filing further revealed that the purpose of the offer is to bolster the capital base of the bank, thereby backing its financial and strategic needs.
Bank Al-Jazira ended the session at SR18.64, up 0.21 percent.
Methanol Chemicals Co. has announced the approval of the Ministry of Energy’s request to renew the allocation of the required feedstock to produce several specialized petrochemical products.
A bourse filing revealed that this follows the company’s Industrial Plot Allocation Agreement with Jubail and Yanbu Industrial Cities Services Co. in the PlasChem Park in Jubail (2) to establish and operate a Choline Chloride and Methyl Diethanolamine Methane plant.
Methanol Chemicals Co. ended the session at SR18.70, down 0.32 percent.
View United Real Estate Development Co. has signed a memorandum of understanding with Watheeq Capital to establish real estate funds to enhance investment opportunities.
According to a Tadawul statement, it will be valid from the date of its signature for one year, and will not be automatically renewed except by a written agreement signed between the two parties.
View United Real Estate Development Co. ended the session at SR68.50, down 0.70 percent.
MODON inks $453m in private sector deals to expand Saudi industrial cities
JEDDAH: Saudi industrial cities are set for further growth as the sector's authority revealed it has signed 23 development contracts with the private sector, valued at over SR1.7 billion ($453 million).
The agreements, announced by the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones, or MODON, encompass a wide range of projects aimed at boosting industrial capabilities.
These include the expansion of industrial cities, the construction of ready-made factories, the enhancement of MODON’s safety and security systems, and initiatives aligned with the National Industry Strategy.
Additionally, the projects will address water and irrigation needs, improve water treatment facilities, upgrade electricity services, and expand road networks.
MODON’s latest contracts highlight the growing role of the private sector in supporting Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 goals, which emphasize economic diversification, local production, and the creation of an attractive environment for both domestic and foreign investment.
The projects are expected to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi industrial cities, foster greater investment, and improve operational efficiency for businesses.
The agreements will also contribute to regional development, improve environmental sustainability, and promote vegetation growth, MODON stated in a post on its X account.
The development of these projects is in line with Saudi Arabia’s broader efforts to build a dynamic and innovative economy.
This move follows a previous round of agreements in July, when MODON signed nine contracts valued at SR1 billion to enhance infrastructure and service facilities across various industrial hubs. Key initiatives from that round included the development of infrastructure in Makkah’s and Jeddah’s industrial cities and the installation of 132-kilovolt overhead power lines in Tabuk’s industrial city.
Looking ahead, MODON plans further expansion with projects that will improve electrical services, such as the construction of 115-kV overhead power lines in Hafr Al-Batin’s industrial city. The authority is also focusing on enhancing infrastructure networks for the first and second phases of Dammam’s Third Industrial City.
Since its establishment in 2001, MODON has overseen the development of 36 industrial cities and is responsible for managing both operational and under-construction industrial lands across the Kingdom.
In the first quarter of 2024, MODON attracted SR3.4 billion in private sector investments, signed 142 new industrial contracts, and registered a total of 6,758 factories.
As part of its commitment to sustainable growth, MODON also planted over 576,000 trees and finalized 335 logistics contracts, underscoring its broader environmental and economic development objectives.
2.25m freelancers in Saudi Arabia join national economy
- The 25— 34 age group is particularly active in freelancing
- 62% of freelancers hold bachelor’s degrees
JEDDAH: Freelancing is emerging as a key contributor to Saudi Arabia’s economy, with over 2.25 million individuals registered on the freelance platform by September.
This growth reflects the rising popularity of flexible work, supported by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development’s launch of the “Future Work” company in 2019 to enhance the freelancing ecosystem by promoting modern workstyles, including remote work and flexible-hour freelancing.
The company’s mission is to create more job opportunities, empower Saudi talent, and develop a labor market that complements traditional employment while aligning with global trends, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Freelancers make a notable contribution to Saudi Arabia’s economy. In 2023, the sector contributed SR72.5 billion ($19 billion) to the gross domestic product, representing 2 percent of the Kingdom’s total output. This highlights its role in diversifying income sources and strengthening the national economy.
The initiative, along with other efforts, has contributed to reducing the Kingdom’s unemployment rates. Saudi Arabia has revised its unemployment target to 5 percent by 2030, down from the previous goal of 7 percent, as part of Vision 2030’s ambitions.
The progress was highlighted by Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi during a panel discussion at the Budget Forum 2024 in November, where he detailed the Kingdom’s strides in improving employment figures. Al-Rajhi said that the unemployment rate among Saudis was 12.8 percent in 2018, and it has recently dropped to 7.1 percent.
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development issues freelance certificates to individuals specializing in specific fields, enabling them to work independently in activities approved by the ministry through the official freelance portal.
A recent report from Future Work highlights the sector’s rapid development and its alignment with Vision 2030. The report also emphasizes the diverse nature of freelance activities, with trade and retail leading at 38 percent, followed by industry at 13 percent and business services at 11 percent. The diversity demonstrates the sector’s adaptability to meet various economic needs.
Freelancing accommodates individuals with different educational backgrounds. According to the report, 62 percent of freelancers hold bachelor’s degrees, while 31 percent have high school diplomas or less, and 7 percent possess higher degrees.
Technology plays a pivotal role in the sector’s growth, with digital platforms becoming indispensable for freelancers, especially in fields like technology, information, and finance. These tools enhance productivity and connectivity, fostering sustainability and success in freelance careers.
Geographically, the Riyadh region accounts for the largest share of freelancers at 27 percent, followed by Makkah at 22 percent, and the Eastern Province at 14 percent.
The 25— 34 age group is particularly active in freelancing, reflecting the younger generation’s growing interest in this flexible career path.
The report said that 3.2 million women have expressed interest in joining the freelance market, underscoring the effectiveness of initiatives aimed at enabling women to balance professional and personal commitments.
Government programs like Reef, the Social Development Bank, and the Human Resources Development Fund further support freelancers by fostering an environment conducive to their growth and success, SPA reported.
Saudi Arabia’s food & beverage sales drive $3.14bn in consumer spending
- Restaurants and cafes topped the list with SR1.69 billion in transactions: SAMA data
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s consumer spending reached SR11.8 billion ($3.14 billion) in the week of Dec. 15 to Dec. 21, with the food and beverage sectors continuing to lead in sales, official data showed.
Despite an overall decline of 8.1 percent from the previous week, key sectors, especially dining and food, showed consistent performance, according to data from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA.
The restaurants and cafes sector topped the list with SR1.69 billion in transactions, despite a 13.9 percent weekly dip. Food and beverage spending followed closely, settling at SR1.69 billion as well, reflecting a 9 percent decrease. These categories, however, maintained their dominance in consumer expenditure.
The overall decrease in consumer spending is attributed to the timing of salary disbursements, traditionally paid on the 27th of each month, which typically leads to lower spending in the preceding weeks.
Additionally, the winter holiday season, during which many expatriates travel home, further influenced the dip in domestic spending.
Other sectors saw more moderate drops. The value of clothing and footwear transactions fell by 5.2 percent to SR864.15 million, while construction and building materials recorded a small 0.9 percent decline, totaling SR355 million.
The electronics and electric devices sector saw an 8.7 percent weekly decrease in value, while gas stations and health-related sales also experienced declines of 9.4 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively.
Jewelry sales recorded a 14.4 percent drop in transaction volumes, with a slight 3.9 percent decrease in value. Miscellaneous goods and services saw a 9.1 percent reduction in sales, totaling SR1.4 billion.
Regional breakdown
Regionally, Riyadh remained the largest market with a POS value of SR4.2 billion, although this represented a 6 percent decrease compared to the previous week.
Jeddah saw a 7.5 percent drop to SR1.6 billion, while Dammam recorded a slight 3.6 percent decline to SR617.5 million.
Among smaller cities, Hail experienced the largest decrease, with spending down 14.8 percent to SR169.6 million, and a 12.2 percent reduction in transaction volumes. Makkah recorded a 4.4 percent decline in value, settling at SR502.8 million, while Tabuk saw a 12.8 percent decrease in transaction value to SR210.4 million.
Despite the seasonal slowdown, the food and beverage sectors continue to drive the market, maintaining a steady pace as consumer behavior shifts with the winter season.
