LONDON: Oil prices approaching $100 per barrel, as some forecasts suggest, would set in motion a “trickle down” effect, boosting GCC prosperity and growth in both the private and public sectors, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
In an interview with Arab News, Garbis Iradian, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa region at the Washington-based IIF, said Saudi Arabia should see GDP growth of between 2 percent and 2.2 percent in 2018, compared with a contraction of 0.9 percent last year.
IIF is predicting an average oil price this year of $74 a barrel but Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA) has suggested that the price could peak at close to $100.
BoA said in a note to clients: “Brent is up more than 30 percent this year. The team now expect … $95 a barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019 (as Iranian and Venezuelan output fall sharply).”
The trickle-down effect of a strong oil price for the GCC economies is crucial, said Iradian. “Of course, official reserves will rise, current account surpluses will grow and fiscal deficits will narrow,” he said, speaking about the region overall.
“But when you have a high oil price, private-sector confidence improves. The banking system strengthens, liquidity improves, and there is a greater appetite for spending by government, businesses and individuals, that feeds through to higher private and public investment in non-oil sectors — and this is crucial in the context of Vision 2030,” he added, referring to Saudi Arabia’s reform program.
He envisaged an upswing in government spending in 2018 — by about 15 percent across the GCC — thanks to higher oil revenues.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Arab News that as far as UAE was concerned, “the most immediate boost to non-oil activity will come from an increase in direct government spending in the economy.”
Iradian said higher oil revenues would more than offset the rise in public spending. On top of that, non-oil government revenue is improving, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — from fees on expats, the introduction of value added tax (VAT) and fiscal stimulus measures.
Malik emphasized that she saw the UAE as “one of the most resilient economies in the region,” and reckoned that non-oil growth probably bottomed in 2017 and 2018 and therefore “we see a gradual pick-up in real non-oil GDP growth in 2019 as the drag from the introduction of VAT earlier this year wanes and the fiscal stance loosens.”
Richard Boxshall, an economist at PwC, said growing confidence in the GCC would ultimately depend on how long the oil price stays high. But assuming it did, “a lot of new investments in cities, solar parks and so on were more likely to be accelerated, and also new initiatives in the private sector approved,” he said.
Salaries and recruitment would likely rise, with more discretionary spending coming through, bolstering the sale of goods and services, according to Boxshall.
Iradian said the fiscal situation in Saudi Arabia and the UAE was “now on a firmer footing.”
Next year, KSA’s private sector should show solid signs of uplift and possibly doubling, assuming that oil holds above $70 a barrel, Iradian said.
Nevertheless, he added: “MENA countries should take concrete steps to improve the business climate and empower the private sector to achieve higher and more sustainable growth.
“To this end, laws and regulations governing business and investment should be revamped to draw on best practices in successful emerging economies and promote fairness, transparency, and predictability.”
There were several positive factors at play in KSA, said Iradian. Oil output is increasing, unlike in 2017 when production fell. Government spending on both upstream and downstream operations (such as petrochemicals) is rising; non-oil private sector growth would flatline at around 0.5 percent in 2018, but that could change next year as long as oil stayed strong. For now, Iradian forecasts that KSA’s non-oil GDP growth in 2018 would be around 1 percent.
One possible cloud on the horizon for the dollar-pegged GCC economies is higher interest rates and dollar appreciation which could partially, but by no means totally, dampen consumer confidence.
With little oil, Dubai is dependent on foreign investment and tourism, as well as property and retail spending — “so the rising interest rate environment could present challenges for them,” said Iradian.
But he still forecasts a 2018 growth rate for the UAE of 2.4 percent, only slightly lower than 2017 when it was 2.7 percent. Interest rate rises are forecast to be incremental both this year and next.
For KSA, major structural issues relating to the labor force — such as better vocational training — remain to be further tackled, said Iradian. That would allow Saudi nationals to fill jobs in the private and public sectors that up to now have been taken by expats.
Iradian cautioned that a growth rate of around 2 percent was “not enough to create sufficient additional jobs” for KSA nationals.
“It would take time before ‘higher end’ jobs in banking and elsewhere would be filled by Saudis. There was still work to be done to open up the private sector,” he said.
“But I think they are determined to continue with these reforms … The Saudi economy needs to grow 4 or 5 percent on a sustained basis to create enough jobs for the new entrants to the labor force (including female) to reduce unemployment.”
Boxshall said one negative from higher oil prices could be a softening of the focus on the diversification agenda. “The countries have made tremendous progress, (but) higher oil price could remove the urgency to change.”
“Next year will be interesting. If oil goes into 2019 strong and it looks sustainable, then we really might start to feel major benefits,” said Boxshall.
A recent IIF report warned that risks included slower implementation of reforms, which would undermine private investment; faster-than-expected US monetary tightening; an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region and/or a worsening trade war between the US and China.
GCC to reap massive dividend as oil prices rise
GCC to reap massive dividend as oil prices rise
- IIF is predicting an average oil price this year of $74 a barrel but Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA) has suggested that the price could peak at close to $100
- BoA said in a note to clients: Brent is up more than 30 percent this year. The team now expect … $95 a barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019
Dubai’s annual inflation rate slows to hit lowest level in 14 months
RIYADH: Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed again in October, reaching its lowest level in 14 months, official figures showed.
According to data released by the Dubai Statistics Center, the emirate’s inflation rate reached 2.4 percent in October, driven by a deeper deflation in transport prices, which fell by 10.6 percent compared to an 8 percent decline in September.
Dubai’s inflation rate has been relatively low compared to other major cities in the region, reflecting the government’s proactive measures to manage price stability and sustain economic growth.
Amid global inflationary pressures, the emirate’s economy has remained resilient, benefiting from diversified sectors such as tourism, real estate, and trade.
The data further indicated a deflation in the tobacco price category to 3.63 percent, similar to that recorded in September.
The figures also showed slower deflation in the information and communication category, which saw an annual fall of 1.92 percent, compared to a decline of 2.05 percent in September.
Recreation, sport, and culture prices witnessed a year-on-year drop of 1.74 percent in October, a smaller decrease than the 2.66 percent seen in the previous month.
The data also revealed that the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels sector witnessed a price increase, with a 7.16 percent surge, compared to 7.02 percent in September.
The insurance and financial services sector also witnessed a rise in prices, with a 5.83 percent rise in October, compared to 5.20 percent in the previous month.
Prices in education, health, and food and beverages also advanced in October. Education rose by 2.94 percent, health by 1.87 percent, and food and beverages by 1.85 percent.
In comparison, September’s increases were 2.94 percent for education, 1.88 percent for health, and 1.81 percent for food and beverages.
The personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services sector, recorded a 1.67 percent jump in prices, while clothing and footwear was up 1.15 percent.
Both of these were lower rises than in September.
Arab stock markets up 2.14% in Q3, surpassing $4.3tn in market capitalization
RIYADH: Arab stock markets saw a 2.14 percent growth in the third quarter of 2024, driven by strong performances in Beirut, Egypt, and Damascus, according to the Arab Monetary Fund’s composite index.
The AMF’s quarterly report highlighted annual growth of 1.5 percent in the index, reflecting gains in 13 of the 16 tracked markets, while three recorded declines.
Regional reforms, such as Egypt’s privatization initiatives and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects, played a significant role in bolstering market activity.
The UAE’s diversification efforts also contributed to the strength of its financial markets, particularly in renewable energy and technology sectors.
The AMF said: “The positive sentiment in Arab financial markets reflects investor confidence in ongoing economic reforms and robust corporate performances.”
Top performers
The Beirut Stock Exchange led the gains with a 29.03 percent rise, marking the highest performance among Arab exchanges. It was followed by the Egyptian Exchange, which increased by 13.76 percent, and the Damascus Securities Exchange, with a 12.66 percent rise.
In the UAE, Dubai Financial Market recorded an 11.75 percent gain, reflecting strong investor activity.
Other markets also posted significant performances. The Casablanca Stock Exchange grew by 8.06 percent, while stock markets in Qatar and Iraq posted increases of 6.52 percent and 5.35 percent, respectively.
The Saudi Exchange, known as Tadawul, saw healthy growth of 4.68 percent, underpinned by gains in non-oil sectors aligned with Vision 2030 objectives. Algeria and Oman reported smaller but steady increases of 4.9 percent and 0.49 percent, respectively.
Despite the positive trend in most markets, three exchanges reported declines, with Bahrain’s stock market falling by 0.63 percent, Amman’s by 0.82 percent, while Palestine’s saw the steepest drop at 7.78 percent.
Market capitalization
The combined market capitalization of Arab financial markets grew by 2.54 percent in the third quarter of 2024, reaching $4.30 trillion, up from $4.19 trillion in the previous three-month period. This represented an increase of $106.55 billion.
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange contributed the most to this growth, adding $37.30 billion, followed by Dubai Financial Market with a $21.35 billion rise. Other notable increases came from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Morocco.
In terms of individual exchanges, the Saudi Exchange retained its position as the largest contributor, representing 62.7 percent of the total Arab market capitalization.
The UAE’s markets, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, collectively accounted for 18.6 percent, while Qatar, Kuwait, and Morocco contributed notable shares. The rest of the Arab markets showed varying levels of growth, with Beirut and Cairo posting sharp rises in market value.
Trading volumes
The value of traded shares across Arab markets soared by 47.46 percent in the third quarter of 2024, reaching $328.92 billion compared to $223.06 billion in the previous three-month period.
The Iraq Stock Exchange reported the highest surge in trading volumes, increasing by 67 percent. The Egyptian Exchange followed with a 51.50 percent rise, while the Saudi Exchange and Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange also saw substantial gains of 25.73 percent and 21.01 percent, respectively.
Some markets experienced a downturn in trading activity. Palestine, Algeria, and Casablanca saw declines in traded volumes, attributed to specific local economic factors.
Across the Arab region, key sectors such as real estate, technology, and financial services performed strongly, attracting both local and foreign investments.
The financial results of listed companies and the announcement of quarterly dividends boosted investor confidence.
Key factors
Arab markets demonstrated resilience despite global economic uncertainties, including fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical challenges.
The AMF reported that easing monetary policies by major central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, improved global liquidity flows into emerging and regional markets.
The report also noted the impact of oil price volatility, which declined by approximately 15 percent during the third quarter of 2024.
While oil-exporting nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, maintained steady market performance, oil-importing nations like Egypt and Jordan benefited from reduced energy costs, alleviating inflationary pressures and supporting economic stability.
Outlook
The AMF emphasized the role of continued economic reforms and diversification in shaping the outlook for Arab financial markets.
“The ongoing efforts to attract foreign investment, improve market transparency, and support non-oil sectors are crucial for sustaining growth and enhancing the competitiveness of Arab financial markets,” AMF said.
Oil Updates – crude nudges up after Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate
SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets.
Brent crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $71.33 a barrel by 8:02 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.20 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.3 percent.
Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to Ukraine’s power system.
In a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, President Joe Biden’s administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday.
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine’s use of US weapons as a major escalation.
“Biden allowing Ukraine to strike Russian forces around Kursk with long-range missiles might see a geopolitical bid come back into oil as it is an escalation of tensions there, in response to North Korean troops entering the fray,” IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, said: “So far there has been little impact on Russian oil exports, but if Ukraine were to target more oil infrastructure that could see oil markets elevate further.”
In Russia, at least three refineries have had to halt processing or cut runs due to heavy losses amid export curbs, rising crude prices and high borrowing costs, according to five industry sources.
Brent and WTI slid more than 3 percent last week on weak data from China and after the International Energy Agency forecasted that global oil supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.
China’s refinery throughput fell 4.6 percent in October from last year and as the country’s factory output growth slowed last month, government data showed on Friday.
Investors also fretted over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve that has created uncertainty in global financial markets.
In the US, the number of operating oil rigs fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since the week to July 19, Baker Hughes data showed.
World Defense Show 2026 to showcase record number of Chinese companies in Riyadh
RIYADH: The third edition of the World Defense Show, scheduled to take place in Riyadh from Feb. 8-12, 2026, has secured a record number of participants, with more than 100 companies from China confirmed to take part.
Notably, the China Pavilion has already filled 88 percent of its exhibition space, making it the second-largest national presence at the event, surpassing even the host nation, Saudi Arabia.
This strong participation underscores the growing global appeal of the show. Since its debut, WDS has seen impressive growth, with exhibition space expanding by 54 percent between 2022 and 2026, more than doubling its size. As of now, over 50 percent of the total floor space for WDS 2026 has already been sold.
The announcement follows the successful conclusion of the second edition of WDS, which hosted 773 exhibitors from 76 countries, facilitated SR 26 billion ($6.9 billion) in deals, and attracted 106,000 trade visits.
“The significant interest and commitment from Chinese exhibitors is a testament to the prominence WDS holds in the global defense space,” said Andrew Pearcey, CEO of World Defense Show.
“Our goal is to bring together global and local stakeholders to advance networking opportunities, strengthen global knowledge-sharing, and shape the future of defense technology,” he said.
The high level of interest from Chinese firms was also evident at the 15th Airshow China in Zhuhai, held from Nov. 12-17. Senior WDS representatives attended the event to engage with potential exhibitors, offering them the opportunity to secure their space at WDS 2026, which is rapidly filling up.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,811
- Parallel market Nomu gained 9.64 points, or 0.03%, to close at 29,477.35
- MSCI Tadawul Index also gained 4.49 points, or 0.30%, to close at 1,485.85
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 20.80 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 11,811.98.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.22 billion ($1.12 billion), as 115 of the stocks advanced and 116 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 9.64 points, or 0.03 percent, to close at 29,477.35, with 41 listed stocks advancing and 41 declining.
The MSCI Tadawul Index also gained 4.49 points, or 0.30 percent, to close at 1,485.85.
The best-performing stock of the day was The Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Co., whose share price rose 9.96 percent to SR20.98.
Other top performers included Saudi Reinsurance Co. and Thimar Development Holding Co., with their share prices increasing by 6.89 percent to SR38.80, and 6.04 percent to SR43.90, respectively.
The share prices of Saudi Cable Co. and The Co. for Cooperative Insurance also surged by 5.39 percent and 5.08 percent to SR97.70 and SR132.40, respectively.
The worst performer was Arriyadh Development Co., whose share price dropped by 5.27 percent to SR26.05.
Other notable decliners included Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund and Red Sea International Co., whose share prices fell by 3.68 percent to SR9.43, and 3.34 percent to SR66.50, respectively.
Zamil Industrial Investment Co. and The National Co. for Glass Industries also saw declines, with their share prices falling by 3.33 percent to SR26.15, and 3.14 percent to SR49.40, respectively.
On the announcements front, Amwaj International Co. disclosed its board of directors’ recommendation to distribute SR6 million in cash dividends to shareholders for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31.
According to a statement on Tadawul, the dividends will cover 6 million eligible shares, with a payout of SR1 per share, representing 10 percent of the share’s par value.
Amwaj International Co. concluded the trading session at SR42, marking an impressive 18.57 percent increase.
Arab Sea Information Systems Co. announced updates regarding its project with the Al-Madinah Region Development Authority for managed IT services.
The company was notified of the decision to cancel the competition due to procedural violations identified following a grievance by a competitor, according to a filing on Tadawul.
The grievance was filed before the award decision or in opposition to it and the company clarified that no costs are associated with the development.
Arab Sea Information Systems Co. closed the session at SR7.13, down 0.84 percent.
