NEW YORK: Tesla is showing some promising signs that it will make money as advertised in the third quarter, but Wall Street isn’t buying it.
The electric car and solar panel maker delivered more than 80,000 vehicles from July through September, and CEO Elon Musk told employees late in the quarter that it was close to profitability.
Still, of 15 analysts who follow the company, not one expects Tesla to make money. As a group, they expect a net loss of $173.8 million, or 95 cents per share.
“We’d be really very surprised if they posted a profit for the third quarter,” said Garrett Nelson, an analyst for CFRA Research. “This is a company that lost over $3 per share each of the last two quarters. To go from that to all-of-a-sudden profitable would take a dramatic improvement.”
There also were warning signs from the company about reduced profit margins in China due to import tariffs charged by that country in response to US tariffs, Nelson said.
Tesla has achieved profitability before, but only in two quarters since becoming a public company in 2010. It has never posted a full-year profit and it lost $717 million in the second quarter and burned through more than $739 million in cash.
In a cheerleading email to employees as the third quarter closed in September, Musk wrote that Tesla was close to “proving the naysayers wrong.” The company, he wrote, must execute well on Sept. 30, the quarter’s final day. “If we go all out tomorrow, we will achieve an epic victory beyond all expectations. Go Tesla!” wrote Musk, who has been pledging profitability since early May.
Musk and Tesla have defied the odds before by successfully upending how electric cars are designed, produced and sold. Last quarter, Tesla nearly doubled production of its crucial Model 3 sedan just as Musk had promised, hitting 53,000. The Palo Alto, California, company delivered more than 83,000 vehicles in the quarter, over 80 percent of what it delivered in all of last year. There also were reports, however, that it was having trouble delivering Model 3s after producing them.
The company has also been plagued with one controversy after another, much of it self-inflicted as a result of Musk’s erratic behavior. During the last quarter, he ran afoul of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which filed a lawsuit alleging that he misled investors by falsely declaring on Twitter that he had lined up financing to take Tesla private. The SEC wanted to oust Musk as CEO as punishment, but in a settlement, Musk agreed to step down as chairman for three years. Musk and Tesla will each pay $20 million to resolve the case, and he also must have someone monitor his company-related tweets.
Now all eyes are back on Tesla’s financial performance. Nelson said posting a profit under national accounting standards hinges on how much money the company made per vehicle. He also said the accounting standards allow for Tesla to take some sales from the fourth quarter and put them on the books for the third quarter in order to realize more revenue. But that would make it profitability harder in the fourth quarter.
Tesla’s stock soared 12.7 percent on Tuesday to $294.14, largely because a longtime short-seller reversed course and said it would invest in Tesla for the long haul.
Citron Research, which had bet against Tesla stock for years, wrote in a note posted on its website that Tesla is destroying the competition. It produced charts showing that the mass-market Model 3 was the top-selling US luxury car during the first half of the year, more than doubling its closest competitor, the Mercedes C Class. Another chart showed Tesla’s Model S sedan atop the US large luxury car market with an estimated 8,000 sales.
Citron wrote that Tesla is not just pulling customers from luxury automakers but also taking sales from Toyota and Honda.
“As much as you can’t believe you are reading this, we can’t believe we are writing this,” Citron wrote.
Tesla has $1.3 billion in debt payments coming by early next year, raising concerns from analysts that it will have to borrow cash or issue more stock. It’s already $10 billion in debt.
But Citron wrote that a strong quarter could make another capital infusion unnecessary. “Tesla will be generating more than enough cash to fund both aggressive growth plans and build cash on the balance sheet,” the company wrote.
Wall Street skeptical of Tesla’s promise to post net profit
Wall Street skeptical of Tesla’s promise to post net profit
- The electric car and solar panel maker delivered more than 80,000 vehicles from July through September
- As a group, they expect a net loss of $173.8 million, or 95 cents per share
Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly gain on winter fuel demand
LONDON: Oil prices rose in early Asian trade and were on track for a third straight week of gains with icy conditions in parts of the US and Europe driving up fuel demand for heating.
Brent crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.61 a barrel at 10:52 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 66 cents, also up 0.9 percent, to $74.58.
Over the three weeks ending Jan. 10, Brent has advanced 6 percent while WTI has jumped 7 percent.
Analysts at JPMorgan attributed the gains to growing concern over supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions, amid low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in many parts of the US and Europe and improving sentiment regarding China’s stimulus measures.
The US weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and will likely continue to experience a colder-than-usual start to the year, which JPMorgan analysts expect to boost demand.
“We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by ... demand for heating oil, kerosene, and LPG,” JPMorgan said in a note on Friday.
Meanwhile, the premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand.
Oil prices have rallied despite the US dollar strengthening for six straight weeks. A stronger dollar typically weighs on prices, as it makes purchases of crude expensive outside the US.
Supplies could be further hit as US President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy this week in a bid to bolster Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. A key target of sanctions so far has been Russia’s oil industry.
“Uncertainty over how hawkish Trump will be with Iran will be providing some support. Asian buyers have already been looking for alternative grades from the Middle East, with broader sanctions against Russia and Iran making this oil flow more difficult,” ING analysts said in a note on Friday.
SABIC, Almarai, SEC able to absorb fuel price hike: S&P Global
RIYADH: Major Saudi companies, including chemical company SABIC, dairy firm Almarai, and Saudi Electric Co., are well-positioned to handle the impact of higher fuel and feedstock prices introduced on Jan. 1, according to a new report.
Released by capital market economy firm S&P Global, the analysis reveals that those corporates will be able to absorb the marginal increase in production costs by further improving operational efficiencies as well as potentially via pass-through mechanisms.
This came after Saudi Aramco increased diesel prices in the Kingdom to SR1.66 ($0.44) per liter, effective Jan. 1, marking a 44.3 percent rise compared to the start of 2024. The company has kept gasoline prices unchanged, with Gasoline 91 priced at SR2.18 per liter and Gasoline 93 at SR2.33 per liter.
Despite the hike, diesel prices in Saudi Arabia remain lower than those in many neighboring Arab countries. In the UAE and Qatar, a liter of diesel is priced at $0.73 and $0.56, respectively, while in Bahrain and Kuwait, it costs $0.42 and $0.39 per liter.
“For SABIC and Almarai, the increase in feedstock prices will not affect profitability significantly. In the case of utility company, SEC, additional support will likely come from the government if needed,” the report said.
The capital market economy firm projects that SABIC will continue to outperform global peers on profitability.
“We don’t expect the rise in feedstock and fuel prices to materially affect profitability, since the company estimates it will increase its cost of sales by only 0.2 percent,” the report said.
It further highlighted that SABIC is considered a government-related entity with a high possibility of receiving support when needed.
The report also underlines that Almarai anticipates an additional SR200 million in costs for 2025, driven by higher fuel prices and the indirect effects of increased expenses across other areas of its supply chain.
“We believe Almarai will continue focusing on business efficiency, cost optimization, and other initiatives to mitigate these impacts,” the release stressed.
With regards to SEC, S&P said that an unrestricted and uncapped balancing account provides a mechanism for government support, including related to the higher fuel costs.
“We believe any increased fuel cost will be covered by this balancing account,” the report said.
The study further highlights that the marginal increase “could significantly affect wider Saudi corporations’ profit margins and competitiveness.”
The S&P data also suggests that additional costs will be reflected in companies’ financials from the first quarter of 2025.
“Saudi Arabia is continuing its significant and rapid transformation under the country’s Vision 2030 program. We expect an acceleration of investments to diversify the Saudi economy away from its reliance on the upstream hydrocarbon sector,” the report said.
“The sheer scale of projects — estimated at more than $1 trillion in total — suggests large funding requirements. Higher feedstock and fuel prices would help reduce subsidy costs for the government, with those savings potentially redeployed to Vision 2030 projects,” it added.
Lenovo to produce ‘Saudi Made’ PCs by 2026 following $2bn Alat deal closure
RIYADH: Chinese tech giant Lenovo is set to manufacture millions of computer devices in Saudi Arabia by 2026, following the completion of a $2 billion investment deal with Alat, a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund.
First announced in May, the partnership has now received shareholder and regulatory approvals, paving the way for Lenovo to establish a regional headquarters and a manufacturing facility in the Kingdom.
The deal marks a significant step in aligning Lenovo’s growth ambitions with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, innovation, and job creation, the company said in a press release.
The factory will manufacture millions of PCs and servers every year using local research and development teams for fully end-to-end “Saudi Made” products and is expected to begin production by 2026, it added.
“Through this powerful strategic collaboration and investment, Lenovo will have significant resources and financial flexibility to further accelerate our transformation and grow our business by capitalizing on the incredible growth momentum in KSA and the wider MEA region,” Yang said.
He added: “We are excited to have Alat as our long-term strategic partner and are confident that our world-class supply chain, technology, and manufacturing capabilities will benefit KSA as it drives its Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, industrial development, innovation, and job creation.”
Amit Midha, CEO of Alat, underscored the significance of the partnership for both Lenovo and the Kingdom.
“We are incredibly proud to become a strategic investor in Lenovo and partner with them on their continued journey as a leading global technology company,” said Midha.
“With the establishment of a regional headquarters in Riyadh and a world-class manufacturing hub, powered by clean energy, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we expect the Lenovo team to further their potential across the MEA region,” he added.
The partnership is expected to generate thousands of jobs, strengthen the region’s technological infrastructure, and attract further investment into the Middle East and Africa, according to the press release.
In May, Lenovo raised $1.15 billion through the issuance of warrants to support its future growth plans. The initiative, which was fully subscribed by investors, signals confidence in Lenovo’s strategic approach and its plans for global expansion.
The investment deal was advised by Citi and Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton for Lenovo, while Morgan Stanley and Latham & Watkins represented Alat.
Lebanon’s bonds climb as parliament elects first president since 2022
LONDON: Lebanon’s government bonds extended a three-month long rally on Thursday as its parliament voted in a new head of state for the crisis-ravaged country for the first time since 2022.
Lebanese lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president. It came after the failure of 12 previous attempts to pick a president and the move boosts hopes that Lebanon might finally be able to start addressing its dire economic woes.
Lebanon’s battered bonds have almost trebled in value since September when the regional conflict with Israel weakened Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, long viewed as an obstacle to overcoming the country’s political paralysis.
Most of Lebanon’s international bonds, which have been in default since 2020, rallied after Aoun’s victory was announced to stand between 0.8 and 0.9 cents higher on the day and at nearly 16 cents on the dollar.
They have also risen almost every day since late December, although they remain some of the lowest priced government bonds in the world, reflecting the scale of Lebanon’s difficulties.
With its economy still reeling from a devastating financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of international support to rebuild from the war, which the World Bank estimates to have cost the country $8.5 billion.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,097
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 9.01 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 12,097.75.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.48 billion ($1.99 billion), as 96 stocks advanced, while 133 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 3.28 points, or 0.22 percent, to close at 1,510.14.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, surged, gaining 251.24 points, or 0.82 percent, to close at 31,027.39. This comes as 56 of the listed stocks advanced, while 32 declined.
The best-performing stock was Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co. for the second day in a row, with its share price increasing by 7.69 percent to SR49.
Other top performers included Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., which saw its share price rise by 6.5 percent to SR14.74, and Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Co., which saw a 4.42 percent increase to SR35.45.
Arabian Pipes Co. and Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group also saw positive change with their share prices moving up by 4.10 percent and 3.89 percent to SR12.70 and SR298.80, respectively.
The worst performer of the day was Salama Cooperative Insurance Co., whose share price fell by 5.88 percent to SR19.52.
Almoosa Health Co. and Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 5.13 percent and 3.91 percent to SR133.20 and SR28.25, respectively.
On the announcements front, Riyad Bank declared its intention to fully redeem its $1.5 billion fixed-rate reset tier 2 sukuk, issued in February 2020, on Feb. 25, 2025.
According to a Tadawul statement, the sukuk originally maturing in 2030, will be redeemed at face value in accordance with the terms and conditions. The redemption, approved by the regulators, will include any accrued but unpaid periodic distributions.
On the redemption date, Riyad Sukuk Limited will deposit the full amount into the accounts of sukuk holders, marking the completion of the issuance. This redemption will conclude the sukuk’s life, with no remaining value post-redemption.
Riyad Bank ended today’s trading session edging up by 0.91 percent to SR27.85.
