SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Monday as the start to US sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers that will allow major buyers to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily.
Front-month Brent crude futures were at $72.40 per barrel at 0332 GMT on Monday, down 43 cents, or 0.6 percent from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $62.68 a barrel.
Brent has lost more than 16 percent in value since early October, while WTI has declined by more than 18 percent since then, in part as hedge funds have cut their bullish wagers on crude to a one-year low by the end of October, data showed on Friday.
Prices came under pressure as it became clear that Washington was allowing several countries to continue importing crude from Iran despite the sanctions, which officially started on Monday.
The US said on Friday it will temporarily allow eight importers to keep buying Iranian oil.
Washington has so far not named the eight, referred to as “jurisdictions,” a term that might include Taiwan which the US does not regard as a country.
China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Japan have been the top importers of Iran’s oil, while Taiwan occasionally buys Iranian crude.
Japan said on Monday it was in close communication with the US. While Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declined to detail any potential sanction waivers, he said his government had asked Washington that sanctions should not have an adverse impact on Japanese companies.
Oil markets have been preparing for the sanctions for months.
“Iranian exports and production had been declining steadily ... Iranian exports show a decline of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) as of October from May,” said Edward Bell of Emirates NBD bank.
On the demand side, Bell warned that consumption may be slowing due to an economic slowdown, as seen in a sharp drop in refining profits.
“Sagging refining margins at a time of weak crude prices sends a very telling message to us that demand is underperforming,” he said.
A slowdown in demand would come just as output is rising.
Joint output from the world’s top producers — Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia — in October rose above 33 million bpd for the first time, up 10 million bpd since 2010.
These three countries alone meet more than a third of consumption.
In the Middle East, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company plans to increase its oil production capacity to 4 million bpd by the end of 2020 and 5 million bpd by 2030, ADNOC said on Sunday, compared with current output of just over 3 million bpd.
Oil prices fall as US grants Iran sanction waivers to major importers
Oil prices fall as US grants Iran sanction waivers to major importers
- The US said on Friday it will temporarily allow eight importers to keep buying Iranian oil.
- Oil markets have been preparing for the US sanctions on Iran for months
Regional leaders rally for sustainable development goals at Beirut forum
RIYADH: Regional leaders and development experts gathered in Beirut for the 2025 Arab Forum for Sustainable Development to assess progress on the UN’s global goals and explore strategies to speed up their implementation.
Held under the patronage of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the three-day event—titled “Restoring Hope, Raising Ambition”—is organized by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, in collaboration with the League of Arab States and other UN agencies.
The forum focuses on advancing the Sustainable Development Goals across the Arab region, highlighting both achievements and persistent challenges.
As a vital platform ahead of two key global gatherings — the Second World Summit for Social Development in Doha this November and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development — the forum helps shape regional priorities around inclusive growth, social equity, and financial inclusion.
Financial inclusion
A central theme of the forum was the urgent need to advance financial inclusion in the Arab region, where approximately 197 million adults — representing 64 percent of the population— remain unbanked, the highest rate globally.
In a panel titled “Advancing Financial Inclusion in the Arab Region,” experts emphasized that true inclusion goes far beyond opening bank accounts—it’s about transforming lives and building economic resilience.
Nasser Al-Kahtani, executive director of the Arab Gulf Program for Development, underscored the need to view financial inclusion as a strategic investment, not just a policy goal.
Sherif Lokman, sub-governor of Egypt’s Central Bank, highlighted the need for national commitment, stating: “Every head of state should look to financial inclusion as something top important. A central bank cannot alone make financial inclusion happen.” He detailed Egypt’s efforts, including training 12,000 bank employees in sign language to better serve people with disabilities.
Maher Mahrouq, director general of Jordan’s Association of Banks, outlined Jordan’s target to raise financial inclusion to 65 percent by 2028 and reduce the gender gap to 12 percent.
Meanwhile, Fatma Triki from Tunisia’s Enda Inter-Arabe noted that her country had already achieved 75 percent financial inclusion in 2021.
The UN Special Rapporteur on Disability Rights, Heba Hagrass, called for at least 80 percent inclusion to ensure marginalized groups are not left behind. “One of the main obstacles to full financial inclusion are policies,” she said, urging reforms to dismantle barriers.
Lebanon’s reform agenda and call for Arab unity
During a ministerial discussion on the road to the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Lebanon’s Finance Minister Yassine Jaber urged the adoption of a unified Arab strategy to fund sustainable development.
“We need a combined effort between governments and international funders,” he said, as he outlined Lebanon’s reform program aimed at recovery from years of economic crisis.
Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the forum, Jaber elaborated on the country’s efforts to rebuild trust in its banking sector after a prolonged financial collapse. He identified the appointment of new leadership at the central bank as a crucial first step in restoring public confidence and promoting financial inclusion.
“During the coming weeks, we’ll be appointing a new vice governor and the new bank control commission, so that the whole team will be there to start preparing for a solution to this banking crisis,” Jaber told Arab News.
He added: “Also, we just passed two laws. One amends the Bank Secrecy Law to allow the Bank Control Commission to have more access. The second law regulates the banking system to ensure banks are healthy, have good capital adequacy, and can operate in a trustworthy way.”
Jaber also noted the central bank’s plans to implement a gradual approach to returning deposits, prioritizing smaller account holders. “There’s no banking system in the world that can give back all the deposits to all the people at the same time. So we’ll start with the smaller depositors, then move to higher amounts.”
Reflecting on regional economic collaboration, Jaber expressed frustration over long-standing obstacles. Recalling his role in the 1990s as economy minister, he said: “I still remember how hard we worked … and always had obstacles that actually a lot of them still exist. With globalization falling apart, the Arab world has to create its own regional cooperation system.”
He also underscored the significance of Lebanon hosting the Arab Forum for Sustainable Development, despite the country's ongoing challenges. “The important thing is that this is happening here, in spite of everything, we still have this conference happening. We still have ESCWA here. Lebanon is stretching its hand out for cooperation.”
Jaber concluded by noting Lebanon’s plans to participate in the upcoming IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, signaling its readiness to re-engage with the international financial community.
Challenges and commitments
The forum also featured remarks from Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the Arab League, who acknowledged that conflict and instability continue to obstruct sustainable development across the region. Yet, he struck an optimistic tone: “Despite these challenges, we see a strong and determined Arab will to transform obstacles into opportunities.”
Echoing this call for resilience, ESCWA Executive Secretary Rola Dashti stressed the need for tangible results over rhetoric. “Hope is not restored through words and promises—it is restored through action, accountability, and justice,” she said.
The Arab Forum for Sustainable Development comes at a critical juncture, as preparations ramp up for the Second World Social Summit in Doha, which will address longstanding gaps in social development. The UN has positioned the summit as an opportunity to “reaffirm our dedication to social progress” and ensure that no one is left behind.
ESCWA’s Annual SDG Review 2025, released during the forum, shed light on persistent inequalities in financial access across the Arab world. The report revealed that only 29 percent of Arab women have access to bank accounts—the lowest rate globally—while just 36 percent of adults use digital payments, compared to a global average of 67 percent.
The review also highlighted Lebanon’s acute banking trust crisis. Despite relatively moderate access to financial services, actual usage drops to just 10 percent, reflecting widespread public mistrust in the financial system.
As the forum’s second day wrapped up, participants emphasized the importance of digital finance, regulatory reform, and stronger regional cooperation to close these gaps. With Lebanon working to restore its financial footing and Arab nations seeking unified solutions, the AFSD has laid the groundwork for meaningful dialogue ahead of November’s global summit.
GCC banks face limited tariff exposure but vulnerable to oil price declines: Fitch
RIYADH: Gulf banks face minimal direct impact from new US tariffs, but remain exposed to broader risks stemming from weaker oil prices and slowing global growth, Fitch Ratings said in a report.
The agency noted that most Gulf Cooperation Council exports to the US are hydrocarbons — which are exempt from the latest tariffs. Non-oil exports, such as aluminum and steel, which are subject to 10 percent or 25 percent duties, account for only a small share of the trade basket, limiting direct exposure for regional economies and their banking sectors.
However, indirect effects could be more pronounced. “Lower oil prices and weaker global demand are the main risks for GCC bank operating environments,” Fitch said. “Government spending strongly affects bank operating conditions in most GCC countries.”
The comments come as Fitch cut its global gross domestic product growth forecast to 2.3 percent in 2025 and 2.2 percent in 2026, citing increased downside risks. That could drag on oil prices — the primary revenue source for most GCC governments — and constrain public investment, a key driver of credit growth and liquidity in the region’s banking system.
Fitch’s Middle East Banks Outlook 2025, released last December, had forecast lending growth broadly in line with 2024 levels. The latest report suggests that view may be revised down if crude continues to weaken.
OPEC+ had over 6 million barrels per day in spare capacity in January and plans to start unwinding production cuts from April, Fitch said, adding that oil prices will largely depend on the strength of the global economy and supply management by the producer group.
The report also warned that a prolonged drop in fiscal revenues could undermine non-oil GDP growth across the GCC. Fitch had initially projected that non-oil sectors would expand by more than 3.5 percent in both 2025 and 2026, but noted that reduced government spending may weigh on momentum.
Weaker corporate performance, tariff-linked cost pressures, and inflation could also deteriorate credit quality, while uncertainty around interest rates may further strain debt servicing and dampen loan demand, Fitch said.
Still, most GCC banks remain well-capitalized. “Many banks have strengthened their capital buffers in recent years, supported by solid earnings from high oil prices and interest rates, as well as strong liquidity and economic activity,” the agency said.
Among sovereigns, Bahrain’s bank operating environment score — rated ‘b+’ with a negative outlook — is the most vulnerable to a downgrade, Fitch said, citing the country’s weak public finances, high debt, and the region’s highest breakeven oil price. The score is constrained by the sovereign rating of ‘B+/Negative’.
Elsewhere in the region, bank operating environment scores are stable, with Oman the only market carrying a positive outlook. Fitch rates Saudi Arabia and the UAE at ‘bbb+’ with stable outlooks, followed by Qatar and Kuwait at ‘bbb’, and Oman at ‘bb+’.
“These sovereigns benefit from stronger reserves and more flexible fiscal positions,” Fitch said. “That enhances their ability to sustain spending and absorb external shocks.”
Closing Bell: Saudi markets edge higher as TASI closes at 11,617
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s stock market ended Tuesday’s session on a positive note, with the Tadawul All Share Index posting modest gains amid mixed performance across sectors.
The index rose by 19.46 points, or 0.17 percent, to close at 11,616.81. Trading turnover on the main market reached SR6.3 billion ($1.69 billion), with 105 stocks advancing and 136 declining, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.
The parallel market, Nomu, also saw upward movement, gaining 23.68 points, or 0.08 percent, to settle at 29,141.30. Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul Index recorded an increase of 4.84 points, or 0.33 percent, ending the day at 1,473.70.
Al Mawarid Manpower Co. led the gains on the main market, with its share price surging 9.97 percent to close at SR150. Strong performances were also recorded by Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., which rose 9.92 percent to SR11.08, and Saudi Research and Media Group, whose shares climbed 6.48 percent to SR184. Rasan Information Technology Co. advanced 6.33 percent, while Middle East Specialized Cables Co. closed 5.14 percent higher.
On the downside, Saudi Cable Co. posted the steepest loss of the session, with its share price falling 3.58 percent to SR124. Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. declined 3.15 percent to SR14.78, followed by Sumou Real Estate Co., Raoom Trading Co., and Arabian Pipes Co., which recorded losses of 2.79 percent, 2.77 percent, and 2.70 percent, respectively.
On the announcements front, Multi Business Group Co., listed on the Nomu market, announced that it has secured a significant new project from the Saudi Fund for Development.
The contract, which exceeds 10 percent of the company’s annual revenue, involves comprehensive renovation work on the Fund’s main building, including architectural, fit-out, electrical, and mechanical upgrades.
The company confirmed that no related parties were involved in the deal. Following the announcement, Multi Business Group Co. shares rose 6.92 percent to close at SR19.78.
In a separate disclosure, the Saudi Exchange stated that the fluctuation limits for Bank Albilad on April 15 would be based on a share price of SR29.25.
This adjustment follows the bank’s extraordinary general meeting on April 14, during which shareholders approved a capital increase through the issuance of bonus shares. Consequently, all outstanding orders for Bank Albilad shares will be canceled, and the Securities Depository Center will deposit the additional shares into investor portfolios by April 17. Bank Albilad’s share price edged up 0.51 percent on Tuesday, closing at SR29.40.
E-payments account for 79% of Saudi retail transactions in 2024: SAMA
RIYADH: Electronic payments made up 79 percent of all retail transactions in Saudi Arabia in 2024, up from 70 percent the previous year, according to the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA.
The increase marks a key milestone in the Kingdom’s shift toward a cashless economy, aligning with one of the core objectives of the Financial Sector Development Program under Vision 2030.
SAMA reported that the total number of non-cash retail transactions reached 12.6 billion in 2024, up from 10.8 billion in 2023, reflecting the continued growth and adoption of electronic payment systems across the country.
In a statement, the central bank said this progress was the result of strategic efforts carried out in cooperation with the financial sector to advance the payments ecosystem and expand access to secure and innovative digital solutions.
SAMA reaffirmed its commitment to enhancing payment infrastructure and supporting economic activities by fostering a more diversified and modern payment landscape.
Digital push
The broader shift toward e-payments has been reinforced by strong growth in both point-of-sale and e-commerce activity in recent years.
According to SAMA data, the value of POS transactions has grown significantly, increasing by 24.15 percent annually in 2020, 32.45 percent in 2021, and by 8.83 percent in 2024, reaching SR668.18 billion ($178.18 billion).
The surge in 2020 and 2021 reflects the pandemic’s role in accelerating the shift toward contactless and digital payments, as consumers and businesses adapted to safety concerns and movement restrictions.
While growth rates have normalized since then, the upward trend in 2024 suggests that post-pandemic behaviors have largely persisted, reinforcing long-term structural changes in how retail transactions are conducted in the Kingdom.
This rise reflects not only the increasing consumer preference for digital transactions but also the rapid expansion of point-of-sale infrastructure across the Kingdom.
In parallel, e-commerce spending using Mada cards has surged, jumping 278.68 percent annually in 2020 to reach SR38.82 billion. By 2024, that figure climbed to SR197.42 billion, representing a 25.82 percent year-on-year increase. The sustained growth highlights the growing role of online platforms in Saudi Arabia’s retail and services sectors.
Together, these trends underscore the broader momentum behind digital payments in the Kingdom, positioning Saudi Arabia as a leader in fintech innovation and financial transformation in the region.
Expat remittances from Saudi Arabia hit $3.4bn in February, a 37% annual growth
RIYADH: Expatriate remittances from Saudi Arabia surged to SR12.78 billion ($3.41 billion) in February, marking a 37.04 percent increase compared to the same month last year, according to recent data.
Figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, also reveal transfers made by Saudi nationals rose 33.53 percent during the same period to reach SR6.24 billion.
This surge reflects a combination of domestic labor market momentum and broader international factors.
The sharp rise is largely attributed to the Kingdom’s accelerating economic activity, particularly the rollout of Vision 2030 megaprojects, which has driven strong demand for foreign labor. As hiring increased, wage growth in key sectors also improved, giving expatriate workers greater sending power.
According to Tuscan Consulting’s 2025 Salary Guide for the UAE and Saudi Arabia, salary trends in both countries are influenced by economic growth, talent demand, and nationalization policies.
In the Kingdom, the surge in Vision 2030 megaprojects has intensified the demand for skilled professionals, leading to competitive compensation packages, particularly in sectors like technology, finance, and healthcare. While salary increases have moderated compared to the post-pandemic period, employers continue to offer attractive incentives to retain top talent.
The guide also noted that Saudi salaries for specific roles are approximately 10–15 percent higher than those in the UAE, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s aggressive talent acquisition strategies. Additionally, implementing Saudization policies is reshaping workforce dynamics, prompting companies to balance attracting expatriates and integrating local talent.
Supportive macroeconomic conditions further strengthened remittance flows. The Kingdom’s stable currency, zero tax on personal income and remittances, and enhanced financial transfer channels made it easier and more cost-effective for workers to send money abroad.
However, remittance dynamics are also shaped by ongoing labor market policies in the Kingdom. Initiatives such as Saudization, which aims to increase the participation of Saudi nationals in the private sector, and expat levies, which impose fees on foreign workers and their dependents, have influenced hiring practices and workforce composition.
While these measures are intended to create more opportunities for citizens and reduce reliance on foreign labor, they may also gradually moderate remittance outflows over time by curbing the growth of the expatriate workforce.
Nonetheless, in the near term, the pace and scale of Vision 2030 megaprojects continue to drive high demand for foreign labor, particularly in construction, infrastructure, and services — supporting strong remittance flows despite structural shifts in employment policy.
At the same time, the economic conditions in expatriates’ home countries have also played a role. In 2023, several top remittance-receiving nations, including Egypt, faced significant economic challenges.
For instance, a currency crisis in Egypt caused the official exchange rate to diverge sharply from the parallel market, leading many expatriates to delay transfers or resort to informal channels. As a result, remittances to Egypt dropped 31 percent in 2023, according to a 2024 report by the World Bank Group.
Looking ahead, oil prices, local employment policies, and global economic conditions — especially in expatriates’ home countries — will shape the future of remittance flows from Saudi Arabia. While US tariffs don’t directly affect the Kingdom, their ripple effects could. Slower global growth from trade tensions may weaken oil demand, affecting Saudi revenues and potentially delaying projects that employ many foreign workers. A stronger US dollar could also raise living costs in the Kingdom, reducing the money expatriates can send home. If Saudization accelerates, fewer foreign workers may further lower remittance outflows.
