DUBAI: The summit of the G20 nations assembling in Buenos Aires comes at a crucial time in world affairs, as well as a critical juncture in the economy of its host nation, Argentina.
For Saudi Arabia too, the meeting comes at an important crossroads – an opportunity to move its economic transformation strategy onto another level in the face of challenges at home and abroad.
While public perception of the G20 is based on the power-play politics on display over the traditional 48 hours of summitry, behind the scenes the gathering is a forum for the resolution of economic and financial issues.
The two days of in-your-face events are preceded by more discreet meetings of business leaders and financial officials — the legendary “sherpas” — from the member countries and their invitees; their discussions are decidedly economic, rather than political; their implicit agenda is to maintain economic stability within the existing financial framework.
Maybe this is why, over the course of the 10-year history of the G20, it has attracted more criticism and opposition from the left wing, and physical opposition from violent extremists, than any other multinational gathering.
The G20 is unashamedly a club of capitalists, even when its most populous member and second biggest economy, China, is still nominally a communist economy. In its decade in the capitalist inner sanctum, China has proven just as orthodox a capitalist as any of the other members, including the standard bearer of free enterprise, the US.
In 2009 at the G20 in Pittsburgh, China joined with the US to bail out the world with an expansionist program after the global financial crisis had led it to the brink, declaring itself a committed member of the club.
How different the atmosphere is in Buenos Aires. The global economic system seems to be on the point of fracture again, but this time there seems little chance of a US-China double act coming to the rescue.
The Costa Salguero Center on the edge of the Rio de la Plata will be the venue for the first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since, earlier this year, the former fired the opening shots in the “trade war” going on between them by declaring his intention to impose $250 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.
China retaliated with its own tariffs, and there is a danger that the confrontation — which some American officials describe as merely a “skirmish” — will descend into a full-scale battle next year, when the tariffs take effect.
That would have serious consequences for a global economy that is looking increasingly fragile amid concerns that the financial system, too, is laboring under a weight of increased debt and overinflated asset prices.
China recently held out an olive branch, with deputy president Wang Qishan declaring his readiness to enter serious negotiations to avoid a breakdown in the global trade system. The hope is that Trump will hold off formally applying the tariffs in January.
But in Buenos Aires, nobody is expecting too much from the dinner that the two presidents have arranged on Friday night.
By then, the first full day of the summit will have been completed, and President Mauricio Macri of Argentina will be hoping that it has gone off without the major incidents that have been threatened by home-grown and international agitators.
If there was a repeat of the serious football-related violence that broke out in Buenos Aires recently, it would take the shine off his attempts to claim that Argentina had turned a corner in its economic troubles, in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Macri was elected three years ago in a burst of optimism that his reformist policies would put the Argentine economy on the road to stability after years of boom-and-bust cycles, interspersed corruption scandals, and domestic unrest.
For a while it seemed to be working, and winning the G20 was seen as a mark of approval by the international community for his presidency.
But recently the old Argentine malaise has come back with a vengeance. The peso has lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year, Argentine financial markets have been chaotic, and inflation has soared to more than 30 percent per annum. Some Argentinians complain they cannot afford steak.
Macri has stabilized the situation in recent weeks, with the IMF giving its blessing in a series of measures to stabilize the economy and the financial system.
But Argentine citizens are still having to live with an austerity program that threatens their standard of living, and it would not take much for ordinary citizens — the ones who have not taken Macri’s advice to have a long weekend away from Buenos Aires — to join protests that could easily descend into violent confrontation as the G20 leaders meet.
That would be an embarrassment for Macri in front of his fellow leaders, and would also distract from the rest of the very worthy G20 program.
While the media is salivating for a Trump-Xi confrontation on trade, more fireworks on climate change and street protest, the compilers of the G20 program have actually put together a formal agenda that reflects some of the other genuine concerns of the international community.
The theme of the Buenos Aires G20 — as it is the case increasingly with international forums from Davos to Singapore — is sustainability. The world has to live within it means, both in terms of energy, environment, society and finance.
The Argentine G20’s self-declared goals are to focus solutions on the future of work, infrastructure for development, viable food production and consumption, and the inclusion of more women in the global workforce, all against the backdrop of the rapid technological change turning most aspects of the economic process on its head.
That coincides with many of the goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which Saudi policymakers — led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — will be at pains to stress is still on track in Buenos Aires. The event gives the opportunity to reassert the project’s credentials on the international stage after a period of uncertainty in crucial global energy markets and changes in the international perception of the Kingdom.
Some aspects of the Vision 2030 program — like the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco originally slated for next year — have been modified in line with changing circumstances, and lower oil prices threaten to alter the fiscal mathematics for the Kingdom’s economic policymakers.
As the biggest economy in the Middle East, a leading oil producer and a long-standing member of the G20, Saudi Arabia will retain its role and its influence in Buenos Aires. The top-level delegation will be working hard behind the scenes, at the bilateral and “retreat” events at the summit center, to argue its case among its global peers.
It all promises to be an instructive lesson in the stagecraft, and statecraft, that goes into hosting a G20 summit, which, after a move to Japan next year, is planned to be held in Saudi Arabia in 2020, its first time in the Middle East.
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
- The world is hoping the US and China will resolve their trade war
- Saudi Arabia will showcase Vision 2030 on the global stage
French minister calls for hijab ban on school trips
- Bruno Retailleau: ‘The veil is a banner for Islamism, a marker of the subordination of women to men’
- Islamists seek to ‘overturn our institutions and undermine national cohesion to impose Shariah law’
LONDON: French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has called for a ban on Muslim women wearing hijabs while accompanying children on school outings, The Times reported.
French state schools already have a ban on religious head coverings, while the senate approved a bill mandating the removal of headscarves on school outings in 2019, but it did not become law.
“The threat of attack has never been so great as now,” said Retailleau. “It is now primarily endogenous — young individuals radicalized through social media. Last year alone, our services foiled nine attacks, the highest number since 2017.”
Political Islam poses a national threat as it seeks to “overturn our institutions and undermine national cohesion to impose Shariah law in the long term,” he added.
To combat this, the French state must curtail the spread of Islamism in public spaces, sports and education, he said.
“Women accompanying them (students) should not be veiled,” Retailleau added. “The veil is a banner for Islamism, a marker of the subordination of women to men.”
He said his views target a new tolerance for Islamism on the French political left, adding: “Today antisemitism has two faces: Political Islam and also the face of those who use the Palestinian tragedy to court the Muslim vote.”
Afghanistan’s trade doubles, but deficit and sanctions hinder growth
- Afghan exports increased from $850 million in 2021 to $1.8 billion last year
- It may take Afghanistan 10 years to return to pre-Taliban growth levels, World Bank says
KABUL: Afghanistan’s trade has doubled since the Taliban took over in 2021, the latest government data shows, but experts warn there is no evidence of economic growth as the import-export deficit continues to soar amid Western-imposed sanctions.
In 2024, Afghanistan’s trade value reached over $12.4 billion, more than twice the $6.1 billion recorded in 2021, according to data released by the National Statistics and Information Authority.
“The political change in the country in 2021 affected the country’s economy in all aspects … (But) Afghanistan’s trade, particularly exports, has seen a 100 percent progress,” Akhundzada Abdul Salam Jawad, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, told Arab News earlier this week.
Under the Taliban government, the South Asian country saw exports rise from $850 million in 2021 to about $1.8 billion last year. Imports, however, have also surged from $5.3 billion to $10.6 billion in the same period.
While according to Jawad it was “a sign that the country’s trade is going toward stability and growth,” experts are warning about the impacts of Afghanistan’s widening trade deficit in an already fragile economy which was severely affected by US-imposed sanctions and had suffered through two years of sharp economic contraction.
Despite a modest recovery of about 2.7 percent in 2023-24, the World Bank estimates it could take over a decade for the economy to return to pre-Taliban growth levels.
“Our imports are increasing every day, and this is hindering the progress in local production together with other problems such as shortage of electricity and a lack of infrastructure … Necessary actions must be taken to increase exports,” Khan Jan Alokozay, deputy head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, told Arab News.
To reduce the trade gap the Afghan government must work toward strengthening its industrial sector, according to Amin Stanekzai, economist and lecturer at the Rokhan Institute of Higher Education in the eastern province of Nangarhar.
This means facilitating investment, supporting local businesses to enter international markets and encouraging people to use and support local products.
“In order to reduce the deficit, the country’s market needs should be met locally and domestic production is supported while domestic capacities need to be improved,” he told Arab News.
“Afghanistan is still completely an importing country and until this situation changes, speaking of economic growth is irrelevant.”
Wildfire sparks panicked evacuations in Los Angeles suburbs
LOS ANGELES: Firefighters on Wednesday battled a ferocious wildfire in Los Angeles suburbs, home to many Hollywood celebrities, which devoured buildings and sparked panicked evacuations as hurricane-force winds fueled rapid blaze growth.
Frightened residents abandoned their cars on one of the only roads in and out of the upscale Pacific Palisades area, fleeing on foot from the 3,000-acre (1,200-hectare) blaze engulfing an area packed with multimillion-dollar homes in the Santa Monica Mountains.
Firefighters used bulldozers to push dozens of vehicles — including expensive models such as BMWs, Teslas and Mercedes — to one side, leaving many crumpled and with their alarms blaring. Some celebrities posted comments and pictures on social media platforms.
More than 1,400 firefighters were on the ground, with hundreds more on the way, California Governor Gavin Newsom said.
US media reported one firefighter among several injured in the Palisades.
Hundreds of firefighters swarmed the area, attacking the blaze from the ground and the air, while crews worked through steep terrain to cut back vegetation and create firebreaks.
“Extreme fire behavior... continues to challenge firefighting efforts for the Palisades Fire,” with winds gusts up to 60 miles (95 kilometers) per hour expected to continue through Thursday, said the LA fire department in its latest update.
Around 30,000 people were ordered to evacuate the fast-spreading flames, which leveled multiple homes as powerful winds spread embers far and wide.
Velma Wright, 102, was evacuated from a care facility as embers and flames approached in Pasadena, an AFP photographer saw, from where dozens other residents were moved.
Trees and vegetation around the prestigious Getty Villa Museum were burned, but the structure and collections were spared, the museum said in a post on X.
The Getty, set up by US oil billionaire and collector J. Paul Getty and one of the world’s richest art museums, houses Greek and Roman antiquities in a replica Roman country home.
Actor James Woods posted a video on X showing flames engulfing trees and bushes near his home as he got ready to evacuate, and shortly afterward said all the fire alarms were going off.
“I couldn’t believe our lovely little home in the hills held on this long. It feels like losing a loved one,” Woods said.
Across town, on the northern edge of Los Angeles, another fire broke out in Eaton Canyon, near Pasadena, quickly consuming 200 acres (81 hectares) Tuesday night, according to Angeles National Forest officials.
The city of Malibu west of Los Angeles told its residents via social media post to “prepare to evacuate quickly if fire conditions worsen. Evacuate now, especially if you need extra time or have pets/livestock.”
US President Joe Biden — who was in Los Angeles for a planned announcement on new national monuments — said he was “being frequently briefed on the wildfires” and has offered “any federal assistance that is needed.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a house in California, said she was praying for “fellow Californians who have evacuated.”
The fire erupted midmorning and swelled quickly, taking many residents by surprise.
One man, who gave his name as Gary, told broadcaster KTLA that hot ashes were raining down on his community of Sea Ridge.
“There was smoke in the distance, and I was assured that it would not come over the hill... Five minutes later, it’s coming down the hill,” he said.
“Everyone panicked, that’s when everybody made a run and went to go and pack their houses up.”
Evacuee Kelsey Trainor said she saw the fire explode in size as she was fleeing.
“By the time we got to the bottom of the hill, which is about two or three miles, there were flames on both sides of the road, and it became gridlocked,” she said.
“No one knew what to do. Everyone was honking their horns. There’s flames all around you.
“I could see people walking with suitcases, with their dogs, children. An elderly woman was really visibly upset and in tears.”
Pacific Palisades resident Andrew Hires told AFP he got a text alerting him to the fire as his child was at the dentist about to have a tooth extracted.
“We pulled off the mask and ran to the car,” he said.
The fire came as the area was being hit by seasonal Santa Ana winds that forecasters said could develop into the worst windstorm in a decade, with gusts of up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour expected.
“This looks pretty, pretty concerning,” said meteorologist Daniel Swain.
“And what’s going on now is only just the beginning, because weather conditions are going to get a lot worse.”
With a huge pall of smoke visible over the whole of Los Angeles, events throughout the area were canceled, including a red-carpet premiere of Jennifer Lopez’s new film “Unstoppable.”
Wildfires are an expected part of life in the US West and play a vital role in nature.
But scientists say human-caused climate change is altering weather patterns.
Southern California had two decades of drought that were followed by two exceptionally wet years, which sparked furious vegetative growth — leaving the region packed with fuel and primed to burn.
France urges European Commission to be firm against Musk interference
PARIS: France on Wednesday urged the European Commission to protect its member states with “the greatest firmness” against interference in political debate particularly from the billionaire owner of social media platform X, Elon Musk.
“Either the European Commission applies with the greatest firmness the laws that we have given ourselves to protect our public space, or it does not do so and then it will have to agree to give back the capacity to do so to the EU member states,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told France Inter radio.
South Korea’s Yoon faces new arrest attempt in fortified compound
Acting president Choi Sang-mok urged on Wednesday authorities to “do their best to prevent any injuries to citizens or physical conflict between government agencies” while executing Yoon’s arrest warrant.
Protesters supporting and opposing the embattled Yoon braved freezing temperatures to stage rallies on the streets around the presidential compound on Wednesday after a court re-issued a warrant on Tuesday to arrest him.
The Presidential Security Service (PSS) has been fortifying the compound this week with barbed wire and barricades using buses to block access to the residence, a hillside villa in an upscale district known as Korea’s Beverly Hills.
Yoon is under criminal investigation for insurrection over his failed attempt to impose martial law on Dec. 3, a decision that stunned South Korea and prompted the first arrest warrant for a sitting president.
He also faces an impeachment trial in the Constitutional Court.
One of Yoon’s lawyers said the president could not accept the execution of the arrest warrant because it was issued by a court in the wrong jurisdiction and the team of investigators formed to probe the incumbent leader had no mandate to do so.
Yoon Kab-keun, the lawyer, also denied suggestions by some members of parliament that Yoon had fled the official residence, saying he had met the president there on Tuesday. He said they were “malicious rumors” intended to slander Yoon.
On Tuesday, Oh Dong-woon, head of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), which is leading the investigation, apologized for failing to arrest the president last week after a six-hour standoff with hundreds of PSS agents, some of whom were carrying firearms, and military guards at the compound.
“We’ll do our best to accomplish our goal by thoroughly preparing this time with great determination that the second warrant execution will be the last,” Oh told a parliament committee.
He declined to specify how many days the court had given before the new arrest warrant expired.
Oh did not object when members of parliament called for tough action to overpower the presidential guards and military troops inside the compound, but he declined to discuss what options were being considered to achieve that.
Various scenarios reported in local media included mobilizing police special tactical units and heavy equipment to push through the barricades, followed by more than 2,000 police to drag out presidential guards, taking as long as three days if necessary to wear down presidential security agents.
Shin Yul, a Myongji University professor who has followed the political turmoil, said police had lots of experience with the tactical operations that were likely being considered. But safety should be a top priority, especially for protesters, he said, noting the risk of gunfire in a potential clash.
Although police have a clear advantage in terms of resources such as helicopters to drop in tactical units, force should not be the only option considered, said Lee Yung-hyeock, a Konkuk University professor specializing in law enforcement.
He cited “cognitive warfare” such as using loudspeakers to persuade PSS agents they could face personal repercussions by obstructing justice that could mean the end of their careers and possible criminal records.
