Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community

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France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) shakes holding a joint media conference with Argentina's Mauricio Macri at Casa Rosada presidential house in Buenos Aires on November 29, 2018. (AFP / Ludovic Marin)
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G20 summit banners are pictured ahead of the leaders' meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 29, 2018. (Reuters)
Updated 30 November 2018
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Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community

  • The world is hoping the US and China will resolve their trade war
  • Saudi Arabia will showcase Vision 2030 on the global stage

DUBAI: The summit of the G20 nations assembling in Buenos Aires comes at a crucial time in world affairs, as well as a critical juncture in the economy of its host nation, Argentina.
For Saudi Arabia too, the meeting comes at an important crossroads – an opportunity to move its economic transformation strategy onto another level in the face of challenges at home and abroad.
While public perception of the G20 is based on the power-play politics on display over the traditional 48 hours of summitry, behind the scenes the gathering is a forum for the resolution of economic and financial issues.
The two days of in-your-face events are preceded by more discreet meetings of business leaders and financial officials — the legendary “sherpas” — from the member countries and their invitees; their discussions are decidedly economic, rather than political; their implicit agenda is to maintain economic stability within the existing financial framework.
Maybe this is why, over the course of the 10-year history of the G20, it has attracted more criticism and opposition from the left wing, and physical opposition from violent extremists, than any other multinational gathering.
The G20 is unashamedly a club of capitalists, even when its most populous member and second biggest economy, China, is still nominally a communist economy. In its decade in the capitalist inner sanctum, China has proven just as orthodox a capitalist as any of the other members, including the standard bearer of free enterprise, the US.
In 2009 at the G20 in Pittsburgh, China joined with the US to bail out the world with an expansionist program after the global financial crisis had led it to the brink, declaring itself a committed member of the club.
How different the atmosphere is in Buenos Aires. The global economic system seems to be on the point of fracture again, but this time there seems little chance of a US-China double act coming to the rescue.
The Costa Salguero Center on the edge of the Rio de la Plata will be the venue for the first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since, earlier this year, the former fired the opening shots in the “trade war” going on between them by declaring his intention to impose $250 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.
China retaliated with its own tariffs, and there is a danger that the confrontation — which some American officials describe as merely a “skirmish” — will descend into a full-scale battle next year, when the tariffs take effect.
That would have serious consequences for a global economy that is looking increasingly fragile amid concerns that the financial system, too, is laboring under a weight of increased debt and overinflated asset prices.
China recently held out an olive branch, with deputy president Wang Qishan declaring his readiness to enter serious negotiations to avoid a breakdown in the global trade system. The hope is that Trump will hold off formally applying the tariffs in January.
But in Buenos Aires, nobody is expecting too much from the dinner that the two presidents have arranged on Friday night.
By then, the first full day of the summit will have been completed, and President Mauricio Macri of Argentina will be hoping that it has gone off without the major incidents that have been threatened by home-grown and international agitators.
If there was a repeat of the serious football-related violence that broke out in Buenos Aires recently, it would take the shine off his attempts to claim that Argentina had turned a corner in its economic troubles, in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Macri was elected three years ago in a burst of optimism that his reformist policies would put the Argentine economy on the road to stability after years of boom-and-bust cycles, interspersed corruption scandals, and domestic unrest.
For a while it seemed to be working, and winning the G20 was seen as a mark of approval by the international community for his presidency.
But recently the old Argentine malaise has come back with a vengeance. The peso has lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year, Argentine financial markets have been chaotic, and inflation has soared to more than 30 percent per annum. Some Argentinians complain they cannot afford steak.
Macri has stabilized the situation in recent weeks, with the IMF giving its blessing in a series of measures to stabilize the economy and the financial system.
But Argentine citizens are still having to live with an austerity program that threatens their standard of living, and it would not take much for ordinary citizens — the ones who have not taken Macri’s advice to have a long weekend away from Buenos Aires — to join protests that could easily descend into violent confrontation as the G20 leaders meet.
That would be an embarrassment for Macri in front of his fellow leaders, and would also distract from the rest of the very worthy G20 program.
While the media is salivating for a Trump-Xi confrontation on trade, more fireworks on climate change and street protest, the compilers of the G20 program have actually put together a formal agenda that reflects some of the other genuine concerns of the international community.
The theme of the Buenos Aires G20 — as it is the case increasingly with international forums from Davos to Singapore — is sustainability. The world has to live within it means, both in terms of energy, environment, society and finance.
The Argentine G20’s self-declared goals are to focus solutions on the future of work, infrastructure for development, viable food production and consumption, and the inclusion of more women in the global workforce, all against the backdrop of the rapid technological change turning most aspects of the economic process on its head.
That coincides with many of the goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which Saudi policymakers — led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — will be at pains to stress is still on track in Buenos Aires. The event gives the opportunity to reassert the project’s credentials on the international stage after a period of uncertainty in crucial global energy markets and changes in the international perception of the Kingdom.
Some aspects of the Vision 2030 program — like the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco originally slated for next year — have been modified in line with changing circumstances, and lower oil prices threaten to alter the fiscal mathematics for the Kingdom’s economic policymakers.
As the biggest economy in the Middle East, a leading oil producer and a long-standing member of the G20, Saudi Arabia will retain its role and its influence in Buenos Aires. The top-level delegation will be working hard behind the scenes, at the bilateral and “retreat” events at the summit center, to argue its case among its global peers.
It all promises to be an instructive lesson in the stagecraft, and statecraft, that goes into hosting a G20 summit, which, after a move to Japan next year, is planned to be held in Saudi Arabia in 2020, its first time in the Middle East.


Cyprus could become a member of NATO when conditions permit, the country’s president says

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Cyprus could become a member of NATO when conditions permit, the country’s president says

  • Turkiye maintains more than 35,000 troops in the breakaway Turkish Cypriot northern part of ethnically divided Cyprus, doesn’t recognize the island’s government
NICOSIA: Cyprus could apply to become a member of NATO once its armed forces receive the necessary training and equipment with US help to bring them up to the standards of the world’s premier military alliance, the president of the Mediterranean island nation said Thursday.
President Nikos Christodoulides put Cyprus on a trajectory for possible NATO membership, ending weeks of media speculation about his government’s intentions following his meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington last month. The development goes against Cyprus’ long-held policy of neutrality harking back to the Cold War era, when it walked a political tightrope between Washington and Moscow.
Christodoulides said although Cyprus can’t join NATO at this time because of objections that Turkiye would raise to its potential membership, the Cypriot National Guard shouldn’t be denied the opportunity to upgrade its defensive capabilities with US assistance.
Turkiye, which maintains more than 35,000 troops in the breakaway Turkish Cypriot northern part of ethnically divided Cyprus, doesn’t recognize the island’s government, which is based in the Greek Cypriot southern part.
Christodoulides didn’t elaborate on how Turkish objections could be sidestepped. But the UN is currently working to prepare for a resumption of peace talks between the rival sides in Cyprus, which was split in 1974 when Turkiye invaded following a coup by supporters of uniting the island with Greece.
“And because we don’t want the National Guard to lose such opportunities, we’re in talks with the US — and we thank them for their positive response — on how the Cyprus Republic can make the best use of these opportunities, so when everything is in its place, the Cyprus Republic can become a member state of NATO,” Christodoulides told The Associated Press.
“The strengthening of the Cyprus Republic’s deterrent capabilities is of the utmost importance, and we take advantage of every opportunity, both in the direction of the United States and NATO, but also the European Union.”
Christodoulides said Cyprus’ geographic location — it’s the closest EU member state to the Middle East at just 182 kilometers (114 miles) from the Lebanese capital, Beirut — has given impetus to planned upgrades to its military infrastructure. He said the government is currently in talks with the US for upgrades to a key air base and with the EU for a naval base.
Following his meeting with Biden, Christodoulides told the AP of his government’s commitment to expanding defense and security cooperation with the US
Cyprus’ Andreas Papandreou air base on its southwestern edge is currently hosting a US Marine contingent and a number of V-22 Osprey tiltrotor military transport and cargo aircraft prepositioned to assist in potential evacuations from nearby Lebanon and elsewhere.

Russian attacks leave one million Ukrainians without power

Updated 24 min 46 sec ago
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Russian attacks leave one million Ukrainians without power

  • Ukraine is bracing for what could be its toughest winter of the almost three-year war

KYIV: More than a million Ukrainians were left without power in freezing cold temperatures on Thursday after a massive nationwide Russian missile and drone attack.

Ukraine is bracing for what could be its toughest winter of the almost three-year war as Moscow steps up its aerial bombardment of the war-torn country and its troops advance on the frontlines in the east.

“There are emergency blackouts all over the country due to the enemy’s attack on our energy sector. There is no end in sight,” said the CEO of the Yasno energy supplier Sergey Kovalenko.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff said Russia was “continuing their tactics of terror,” seeking to plunge Ukrainian civilians into darkness and cut of heating in the coldest months of the year.

“They stockpiled missiles for attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, for warfare against civilians during... winter,” Andriy Yermak said in a post on Telegram.

The combined missile and drone attack, launched in waves throughout the early hours of Thursday, knocked out electricity for more than a million subscribers in Ukraine’s west, hundreds of kilometers from the front lines.

“As of now, 523,000 subscribers in Lviv region are without electricity,” regional head Maksym Kozytskyi said on social media.

The western region, which borders EU and NATO member Poland, has been spared the worst of the fighting of Russia’s 33-month invasion but has been targeted in Russian drone and missile attacks sporadically.

Regional officials said at least another 280,000 were cut off in the western Rivne region and another 215,000 in the northwestern Volyn region, which also borders Poland.

The full extent of the damage was still being assessed on Thursday morning, with Russian drones also having targeted the capital Kviv, the northeastern city of Kharkiv and port city of Odesa on the Black Sea and other regions reporting power outages.

“Power engineers are working to ensure backup power supply schemes where possible. They have already started restoration work where the security situation allows,” the energy ministry said.

It said it was the 11th massive Russian attack on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure this year.

In an early morning warning posted on social media as the strikes were unfolding, Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said facilities were “under massive enemy attack.”

The strikes, which came as temperatures hit 0 degrees Celsius in many Ukrainian cities, are the latest in two weeks of dramatic escalation in the near three-year war.

A senior UN official, Rosemary DiCarlo, this month warned Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure may make this winter the “harshest since the start of the war.”

Both sides have fired new weapons in an attempt to gain an upper hand ahead of Donald Trump being inaugurated as US president in January.

Russia earlier this week said it was preparing its own retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on its territory using US-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Kyiv has launched at least three attacks on Russian border regions with the missiles since the White House gave it permission to fire them on Russian territory.

Moscow responded to the first strike by firing a never-before-seen hypersonic ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the nuclear-capable missile could be used against Western countries next.

Trump on Wednesday named staunch loyalist and retired general Keith Kellogg as his Ukraine envoy, charged with ending the Russian invasion.

The incoming president has criticized US aid to Ukraine and boasted he could secure a ceasefire in hours — comments that have triggered concern in Kyiv that the US could push it to cede land.

Kellog, an 80-year-old national security veteran, co-authored a paper this year calling for Washington to leverage military aid as a means of pushing for peace talks.

Concerned at a string of Russian advances on the frontline, the outgoing Joe Biden administration has also urged Ukraine drop the minimum age of conscription from 25 to 18 to plug severe manpower shortages.

Russia’s defense ministry also said Thursday it had downed 25 Ukrainian drones fired overnight, including 14 over the southern Krasnodar territory — just to the east of the annexed Crimean peninsula.


China says top military official Miao Hua suspended, under investigation

Updated 28 November 2024
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China says top military official Miao Hua suspended, under investigation

  • Latest senior apparatchik to fall in a sweeping crackdown on graft in the country’s armed force
  • Unconfirmed reports say defense minister Dong Jun was also placed under investigation for corruption

BEIJING: China said Thursday that top military official Miao Hua had been removed from office and was suspected of “serious violations of discipline,” the latest senior apparatchik to fall in a sweeping crackdown on graft in the country’s armed forces.
The ruling Chinese Communist Party “has decided to suspend Miao Hua from duty pending investigation,” Wu Qian, spokesman of China’s Ministry of Defense, told a press briefing.
Wu did not provide further details about the charges against Admiral Miao, a member of Beijing’s powerful Central Military Commission.
But “serious violations of discipline” are commonly used by officials in China as a euphemism for corruption.
The announcement follows reports, unconfirmed by Beijing, that Defense Minister Dong Jun has been placed under investigation for corruption.
If confirmed, Dong would be the third Chinese defense minister in a row to be probed for graft.


India’s parliament suspended temporarily after row over allegations against Adani group

Updated 28 November 2024
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India’s parliament suspended temporarily after row over allegations against Adani group

  • The problem is that India’s states are unprepared for the rapid rise in renewable generating capacity, lack adequate transmission infrastructure and storage

NEW DELHI: Both houses of Indian parliament were suspended temporarily on Thursday within minutes of opening as opposition lawmakers disrupted proceedings for the third day this week seeking a discussion on allegations against the Adani Group.

US authorities have accused Gautam Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani and managing director of Adani Green, Vneet S. Jaain, of being part of a scheme to pay bribes of $265 million to secure Indian solar power supply contracts, and misleading US investors during fund raises there.

“We want a discussion on this in parliament. It is going to be the third day that we are demanding a reply from the prime minister” on the Adani issue, Manickam Tagore, a lawmaker from the main opposition Congress party, which has been leading the protests against the business group, told news agency ANI.

Many of India’s opposition parties accuse Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of favoring Adani and blocking investigations against him in India, accusations both have denied.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who has been a vocal critic of Adani, said Gautam Adani, 62, should be arrested.

While the government has not made any comment on the indictment, Modi’s BJP has said it had no reason to defend Adani, adding that the party was not against industrialists and considered them partners in nation-building efforts.

“Let him defend himself,” BJP spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agarwal said on Tuesday, adding that the law would take its course.


Landslides in Indonesia’s Sumatra kill at least 27, rescuers search for missing

Updated 28 November 2024
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Landslides in Indonesia’s Sumatra kill at least 27, rescuers search for missing

  • Torrential rain in the province since last week had caused flash floods and landslides in four different districts
  • Extreme weather is expected in Indonesia toward the end of 2024, as the La Nina phenomenon increases rainfalls across the tropical archipelago

JAKARTA: Indonesian rescuers are searching for passengers trapped in a minibus buried in mud after flash floods and landslides hit several locations in North Sumatra province, killing at least 27, an official said on Thursday.
Torrential rain in the province since last week had caused flash floods and landslides in four different districts, Indonesia’s disaster agency has said.
A landslide in a village in Deli Serdang on Wednesday killed seven and injured 20, Hadi Wahyudi, North Sumatra police spokesperson told Reuters.
Rescuers were looking for missing people, including those trapped in a minibus and other vehicles on a hilly interprovince road hit by a mudslide, he said, adding he could not give an estimate for the number of affected people.
In other places, rescuers have found 20 dead during a search that started over the weekend. They are still searching for two missing.
“Today, we’re focusing our search to find missing people and clearing the roads affected by the landslides,” said Hadi, adding excavators were deployed.
The landslides and flash floods damaged houses, mosques, and rice fields.
Heavy rains also triggered floods in the provincial capital of Medan, forcing a delay in votes for a regional election in some polling stations.
Extreme weather is expected in Indonesia toward the end of 2024, as the La Nina phenomenon increases rainfalls across the tropical archipelago, the country’s weather agency has warned.