DUBAI: The summit of the G20 nations assembling in Buenos Aires comes at a crucial time in world affairs, as well as a critical juncture in the economy of its host nation, Argentina.
For Saudi Arabia too, the meeting comes at an important crossroads – an opportunity to move its economic transformation strategy onto another level in the face of challenges at home and abroad.
While public perception of the G20 is based on the power-play politics on display over the traditional 48 hours of summitry, behind the scenes the gathering is a forum for the resolution of economic and financial issues.
The two days of in-your-face events are preceded by more discreet meetings of business leaders and financial officials — the legendary “sherpas” — from the member countries and their invitees; their discussions are decidedly economic, rather than political; their implicit agenda is to maintain economic stability within the existing financial framework.
Maybe this is why, over the course of the 10-year history of the G20, it has attracted more criticism and opposition from the left wing, and physical opposition from violent extremists, than any other multinational gathering.
The G20 is unashamedly a club of capitalists, even when its most populous member and second biggest economy, China, is still nominally a communist economy. In its decade in the capitalist inner sanctum, China has proven just as orthodox a capitalist as any of the other members, including the standard bearer of free enterprise, the US.
In 2009 at the G20 in Pittsburgh, China joined with the US to bail out the world with an expansionist program after the global financial crisis had led it to the brink, declaring itself a committed member of the club.
How different the atmosphere is in Buenos Aires. The global economic system seems to be on the point of fracture again, but this time there seems little chance of a US-China double act coming to the rescue.
The Costa Salguero Center on the edge of the Rio de la Plata will be the venue for the first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping since, earlier this year, the former fired the opening shots in the “trade war” going on between them by declaring his intention to impose $250 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.
China retaliated with its own tariffs, and there is a danger that the confrontation — which some American officials describe as merely a “skirmish” — will descend into a full-scale battle next year, when the tariffs take effect.
That would have serious consequences for a global economy that is looking increasingly fragile amid concerns that the financial system, too, is laboring under a weight of increased debt and overinflated asset prices.
China recently held out an olive branch, with deputy president Wang Qishan declaring his readiness to enter serious negotiations to avoid a breakdown in the global trade system. The hope is that Trump will hold off formally applying the tariffs in January.
But in Buenos Aires, nobody is expecting too much from the dinner that the two presidents have arranged on Friday night.
By then, the first full day of the summit will have been completed, and President Mauricio Macri of Argentina will be hoping that it has gone off without the major incidents that have been threatened by home-grown and international agitators.
If there was a repeat of the serious football-related violence that broke out in Buenos Aires recently, it would take the shine off his attempts to claim that Argentina had turned a corner in its economic troubles, in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Macri was elected three years ago in a burst of optimism that his reformist policies would put the Argentine economy on the road to stability after years of boom-and-bust cycles, interspersed corruption scandals, and domestic unrest.
For a while it seemed to be working, and winning the G20 was seen as a mark of approval by the international community for his presidency.
But recently the old Argentine malaise has come back with a vengeance. The peso has lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar this year, Argentine financial markets have been chaotic, and inflation has soared to more than 30 percent per annum. Some Argentinians complain they cannot afford steak.
Macri has stabilized the situation in recent weeks, with the IMF giving its blessing in a series of measures to stabilize the economy and the financial system.
But Argentine citizens are still having to live with an austerity program that threatens their standard of living, and it would not take much for ordinary citizens — the ones who have not taken Macri’s advice to have a long weekend away from Buenos Aires — to join protests that could easily descend into violent confrontation as the G20 leaders meet.
That would be an embarrassment for Macri in front of his fellow leaders, and would also distract from the rest of the very worthy G20 program.
While the media is salivating for a Trump-Xi confrontation on trade, more fireworks on climate change and street protest, the compilers of the G20 program have actually put together a formal agenda that reflects some of the other genuine concerns of the international community.
The theme of the Buenos Aires G20 — as it is the case increasingly with international forums from Davos to Singapore — is sustainability. The world has to live within it means, both in terms of energy, environment, society and finance.
The Argentine G20’s self-declared goals are to focus solutions on the future of work, infrastructure for development, viable food production and consumption, and the inclusion of more women in the global workforce, all against the backdrop of the rapid technological change turning most aspects of the economic process on its head.
That coincides with many of the goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which Saudi policymakers — led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — will be at pains to stress is still on track in Buenos Aires. The event gives the opportunity to reassert the project’s credentials on the international stage after a period of uncertainty in crucial global energy markets and changes in the international perception of the Kingdom.
Some aspects of the Vision 2030 program — like the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco originally slated for next year — have been modified in line with changing circumstances, and lower oil prices threaten to alter the fiscal mathematics for the Kingdom’s economic policymakers.
As the biggest economy in the Middle East, a leading oil producer and a long-standing member of the G20, Saudi Arabia will retain its role and its influence in Buenos Aires. The top-level delegation will be working hard behind the scenes, at the bilateral and “retreat” events at the summit center, to argue its case among its global peers.
It all promises to be an instructive lesson in the stagecraft, and statecraft, that goes into hosting a G20 summit, which, after a move to Japan next year, is planned to be held in Saudi Arabia in 2020, its first time in the Middle East.
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
Why the G20 matters now for both Saudi Arabia and the international community
- The world is hoping the US and China will resolve their trade war
- Saudi Arabia will showcase Vision 2030 on the global stage
High energy costs threaten UK manufacturing’s future, industry warns
- Manufacturing association Make UK said it should cancel climate levies imposed on industrial energy costs and adopt a fixed industrial energy price
MANCHESTER, England: Britain needs to cut industrial energy bills that are the highest among major advanced economies if its aspirations for a healthy manufacturing sector are to succeed, industry body Make UK said on Monday.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government is working on an industrial strategy to put British manufacturing — hit hard by Brexit, soaring energy costs and global trade wars — on a solid footing for the years ahead.
Manufacturing association Make UK said it should cancel climate levies imposed on industrial energy costs and adopt a fixed industrial energy price.
Britain had the highest industrial energy prices out of any International Energy Agency member country in 2023, reflecting its dependence on gas and its role in setting electricity prices.
“If we do not address the issue of high industrial energy costs in the UK as a priority, we risk the security of our country,” Make UK chief executive officer Stephen Phipson said.
“We will fail to attract investment in the manufacturing sector and will rapidly enter a phase of renewed de-industrialization.”
Britain has de-industrialized — defined as the share of manufacturing in overall economic output — faster than in any other major European country over the last 30 years, according to a Reuters analysis of national accounts data.
Manufacturing hit a record low 9 percent of economic output last year, crowded out by the dominant services sector which now drives the majority of the country’s exports — a first among Group of Seven advanced economies.
Alan Johnson, a senior executive for manufacturing, supply chain and purchasing at Nissan Motor, said its Sunderland plant in the north east of England had the highest energy costs out of any of its facilities in the world.
“The proposals being put forward by Make UK ... would send a strong message to investors that the UK remains committed to creating a more competitive environment for electric vehicle manufacturing,” Johnson said.
Ukraine destroys 40 aircraft deep inside Russia ahead of peace talks in Istanbul
- Ukraine's President Zelensky says 117 drones were used in the attack on Russian air bases
- 34 percent of Russia’s fleet of air missile carriers with damages estimated at $7 billion, says Ukraine military
KYIV, Ukraine: A Ukrainian drone attack has destroyed more than 40 Russian planes deep in Russia’s territory, Ukraine’s Security Service said on Sunday, while Moscow pounded Ukraine with missiles and drones just hours before a new round of direct peace talks in Istanbul.
A military official, who spoke with The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to disclose operational details, said the far-reaching attack took more than a year and a half to execute and was personally supervised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In his evening address, Zelensky said that 117 drones had been used in the operation. He claimed the operation had been headquartered out of an office next to the local FSB headquarters. The FSB is the Russian intelligence and security service.
The military source said it was an “extremely complex” operation, involving the smuggling of first-person view, or FPV, drones to Russia, where they were then placed in mobile wooden houses.
“Later, drones were hidden under the roofs of these houses while already placed on trucks. At the right moment, the roofs of the houses were remotely opened, and the drones flew to hit Russian bombers,” the source said.
Social media footage shared by Russian media appeared to show the drones rising from inside containers while other panels lay discarded on the road. One clip appeared to show men climbing onto a truck in an attempt to halt the drones.
Long-range bombers targeted
The drones hit 41 planes stationed at military airfields on Sunday afternoon, including A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft, the official said. Moscow has previously used Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-22 long-range bombers to launch missiles at Ukraine, while A-50s are used to coordinate targets and detect air defenses and guided missiles.
The Security Service of Ukraine said that the operation, which it codenamed “Web”, had destroyed 34 percent of Russia’s fleet of air missile carriers with damages estimated at $7 billion. The claim could not be independently verified.
Russia’s Defense Ministry in a statement confirmed the attacks, which damaged aircraft and sparked fires on air bases in the Irkutsk region, more than 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) from Ukraine, as well as the Murmansk region in the north, it said. Strikes were also repelled in the Amur region in Russia’s Far East and in the western regions of Ivanovo and Ryazan, the ministry said.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was briefed on Ukraine’s attack Russia during a stop at Nellis Air Force Base and was monitoring the situation. A senior defense official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters that the US was not given notification before the attack. The official said it represented a level of sophistication the US had not seen before.
Also on Sunday, Russia’s top investigative body said that explosions had caused two bridges to collapse and derailed two trains in western Russia overnight, killing seven in one of the incidents and injuring dozens more. Russian officials, however, did not say what had caused the blasts and the word “explosions” was later removed from an Investigative Committee press release.
Attack ahead of talks
The drone attack came the same day as Zelensky said Ukraine will send a delegation to Istanbul for a new round of direct peace talks with Russia on Monday.
In a statement on Telegram, Zelensky said that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will lead the Ukrainian delegation. “We are doing everything to protect our independence, our state and our people,” Zelensky said.
Ukrainian officials had previously called on the Kremlin to provide a promised memorandum setting out its position on ending the war before the meeting takes place. Moscow had said it would share its memorandum during the talks.
Russian strike hits an army unit
Russia on Sunday launched the biggest number of drones — 472 — on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s air force said.
Russian forces also launched seven missiles alongside the barrage of drones, said Yuriy Ignat, head of communications for the air force. Earlier Sunday, Ukraine’s army said at least 12 Ukrainian service members were killed and more than 60 were injured in a Russian missile strike on an army training unit.
Ukrainian army commander Mykhailo Drapatyi later Sunday submitted his resignation following the attack. He was a respected commander whose leadership saw Ukraine regain land on the eastern front for the first time since Kyiv’s 2022 counteroffensive.
The training unit was located to the rear of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) active front line, where Russian reconnaissance and strike drones are able to strike. Ukraine’s forces lack troops and take extra precautions to avoid mass gatherings as the skies across the front line are saturated with Russian drones looking for targets.
Poland on a knife’s edge as exit poll shows a near tie in presidential runoff
- Runoff pitted Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU politician, against Karol Nawrock, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives
WARSAW, Poland: Exit polls in Poland’s presidential runoff on Sunday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with the race still too close to call in the deeply divided nation. The results could set the course for the nation’s political future and its relations with the European Union.
A first exit poll showed liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with a slight lead over conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, but two hours later an updated “late poll” showed Nawrocki winning 50.7 percent, more than Trzaskowski with 49.3 percent
The polls have a margin of error and it was still not clear who the winner was.
Claims of victory amid uncertainty
Though the final result was still unclear with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw.
“We won,” Trzaskowski told his supporters to chants of “Rafał, Rafał.”
“This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future,” Trzaskowski said. “I will be your president.”
Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.”
The final results were expected Monday.
A divided country
The decisive presidential runoff pitted Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU politician, against Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives, including President Donald Trump.
The fact that it was so close underlined how deep the social divisions have become in Poland.
The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively toward liberal democratic norms. With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government can fulfill its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.
“We will not allow Donald Tusk’s grip on power to be completed,” Nawrocki said.
The runoff follows a tightly contested first round of voting on May 18, in which Trzaskowski won just over 31 percent and Nawrocki nearly 30 percent, eliminating 11 other candidates.
Katarzyna Malek, a 29-year-old voter in Warsaw, cast her ballot in the first round for a left-wing candidate but went for Trzaskowski on Sunday, viewing him as more competent and more likely to pursue stronger ties with foreign partners and lower social tensions.
“I hope there will be less division, that maybe there will be more dialogue,” she said.
The campaign has highlighted stark ideological divides. Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to restore judicial independence, ease abortion restrictions and promote constructive ties with European partners. Nawrocki, 42, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values and skeptical of the EU.
Allegations against Nawrocki
Nawrocki’s candidacy has been clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and participation in a violent street battle. He denies the criminal links but acknowledges having taken part in “noble” fights. The revelations have not appeared to dent his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated.
“We managed to unite the entire patriotic camp in Poland, the entire camp of people who want a normal Poland, want a Poland without illegal migrants, a safe Poland. We managed to unite all those who want social, community security,” Nawrocki said. It was an apparent reference to those who supported far-right candidates in the first round and who supported him on Sunday.
Some of those voting for Nawrocki in Warsaw dismissed the allegations against him, saying he shouldn’t be punished for his past and that Trzaskowski has also made mistakes as mayor.
Władysława Wąsowska, an 82-year-old former history teacher, recalled instilling patriotism in her students during the communist era, when Poland was under Moscow’s influence.
“I’m a right-wing conservative. I love God, the church and the homeland,” she said, explaining that Nawrocki for her is the only patriotic choice now, and accusing Trzaskowski of serving foreign interests.
“He’s controlled by Germany,” she said. “I want a sovereign, independent, democratic Poland — and a Catholic one.”
International echoes
Amid rising security fears over Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine, both candidates support aid to Kyiv, though Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, while Trzaskowski supports it in the future.
Nawrocki’s campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including an emphasis on traditional values. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish affairs to larger European powers like France and Germany.
Many European centrists rooted for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democratic values under pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe.
Lavrov, Rubio discuss settlement of war in Ukraine, forthcoming talks, agencies report
- “S.V. Lavrov and M. Rubio exchanged views on various initiatives concerning a settlement of the Ukraine crisis
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed on Sunday prospects for settling the conflict in Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine talks set for Monday in Turkiye, Lavrov’s ministry said.
“The situation linked to the Ukraine crisis was discussed,” the ministry said in a statement on its website.
“S.V. Lavrov and M. Rubio also exchanged views on various initiatives concerning a settlement of the Ukraine crisis, including plans to resume direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul on June 2.”
The US State Department, which noted the call was at Russia’s request, said Rubio reiterated US President Donald Trump’s call for continued direct talks between Russia and Ukraine to achieve “a lasting peace.”
The ministry also said that during the conversation Rubio expressed condolences over deaths that occurred when two bridges were blown up in separate Russian regions bordering Ukraine.
“It was stressed on the Russian side that competent bodies will proceed with a thorough investigation and the results will be published. The guilty parties will be identified and will without doubt be subject to a worthy punishment.”
Russian officials said at least seven people were killed and 69 injured when the two bridges were blown up on Saturday.
UK to expand submarine fleet as defense review calls for ‘warfighting readiness’
- The new submarines will be a model jointly developed by the UK, US and Australia under the security partnership known as AUKUS
LONDON: Britain will increase the size of its nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet, the government has announced ahead of a defense review expected to say the country must invest billions to be ready and equipped to fight a modern war.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, like other leaders across Europe, is racing to rebuild his country’s defense capabilities after US President Donald Trump told the continent it needed to take more responsibility for its own security.
Monday’s Strategic Defense Review will call for Britain’s armed forces to move to a state of “warfighting readiness,” spelling out changing security threats and which defense technologies are needed to counter them.
“We know that threats are increasing and we must act decisively to face down Russian aggression,” defense minister John Healey said in a statement.
Britain will build up to 12 of its next-generation attack submarines, which are nuclear-powered but carry conventional non-nuclear weapons, to replace the current fleet of seven from the late 2030s, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement.
Britain operates a separate fleet of submarines armed with nuclear weapons. The government for the first time said a pre-existing program to develop a new nuclear warhead to replace the model used by that fleet would cost 15 billion pounds.
“With new state-of-the-art submarines patrolling international waters and our own nuclear warhead program on British shores, we are making Britain secure at home and strong abroad,” Healey added.
The new submarines will be a model jointly developed by the UK, US and Australia under the security partnership known as AUKUS.
REVERSE DECLINE
In light of Trump’s decision to upend decades of strategic reliance on the US by Europe, Starmer has already committed to increasing Britain’s defense spending in an attempt to reverse a long-term decline in its military capability.
He has promised to raise defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027 and target a 3 percent level over the longer term. On Sunday he warned Britain must be ready to fight and win a war against states with advanced military forces.
In the days running up to the Strategic Defense Review, which Starmer commissioned shortly after taking office last July, the government has announced plans to spend billions on munitions plants, battlefield technology and military housing.
Juggling severely strained public finances, a slow-growing economy and declining popularity among an increasingly dissatisfied electorate, Starmer has sought to cast increased spending on defense as a way to create jobs and wealth. “This plan will ensure Britain is secure at home and strong abroad, while delivering a defense dividend of well-paid jobs up and down the country,” he is expected to say in a speech launching Monday’s review.
