SINGAPORE: Saudi Arabia is set to expand its market share in China this year for the first time since 2012, with demand stirred up by new Chinese refiners pushing the Kingdom back into contention with Russia as top supplier to the world’s largest oil buyer.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest global oil exporter, has been surpassed by Russia as top crude supplier to China in the past two years as private “teapot” refiners and a new pipeline drove up demand for Russian oil.
Now fresh demand from new refineries starting up in 2019 could increase China’s Saudi oil imports by between 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 700,000 bpd, nudging the OPEC kingpin back toward the top, analysts say.
Saudi Aramco said last week it will sign five crude supply agreements that will take its 2019 contract totals with Chinese buyers to 1.67 million bpd.
“With the recent crude oil supply agreements and potential increase of refinery capacity, the Saudis could overtake the Russians and reclaim (the) crown as the biggest crude exporter to China,” Rystad Energy analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu said.
Saudi Arabia has already gained ground this year. China imported 1.04 million bpd of Saudi crude in the first 10 months of 2018, China customs data showed. This is equivalent to 11.5 percent of total Chinese imports, up from 11 percent in 2017, Reuters calculations showed.
Saudi Arabia’s market share in China could jump to nearly 17 percent next year, if buyers requested full contractual volumes, analysts from Rystad Energy and Refinitiv said, while growth in Russian supply to China could slow.
China imported 1.39 million bpd of Russian crude in January-October this year, about 15 percent of total Chinese imports, customs data showed. Russia had a 14 percent share at 1.2 million bpd in 2017.
“We expect Chinese imports of Russian crude to remain at a similar rate in 2019 as a large share of these Russian barrels are imported via pipeline,” Refinitiv analyst Mark Tay said.
The biggest boost to Saudi exports to China comes from contracts inked with new refineries starting up this year and next, owned by companies other than state oil giants Sinopec or PetroChina.
The contracts include 130,000 bpd to Dalian Hengli Petrochemical and up to 170,000 bpd to Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp, each of which has a 400,000-bpd refinery.
Saudi Aramco has also agreed to increase Sinochem Corp’s supplies, which will be processed at its Quanzhou and Hongrun refineries. Sinopec, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corp. have all kept their term Saudi volumes for next year unchanged.
Beijing-based consultancy SIA Energy expects Saudi crude imports to rise by 300,000 bpd in 2019, raising its market share
to 13.7 percent, but leaving it behind Russia.
“We expect lower Saudi crude demand from Hengli and Rongsheng as it is unlikely for them to run their refineries at full rate in 2019,” analyst Seng Yick Tee said.
A source familiar with Aramco’s export plans said there is tremendous appetite from China’s independents, and that it needed to be more aggressive in its marketing strategy.
The state oil company did move more swiftly to seal the most recent deals than it used to in the past, industry sources said.
Aramco’s first deal with Hengli was to supply 20 million barrels of crude, about 55,000 bpd, in 2018, said a senior source. “Hengli executed the 2018 deal nicely, which helped build trust,” he said.
Hengli is designed to process 90 percent Saudi crude, a mix of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, while the remaining 10 percent is Brazilian Marlim crude. Rongsheng’s plant is identical to Hengli, the industry sources said.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity.
Aramco is also supplying PetroChina’s refinery in China’s southwestern Yunnan province with about 4 million barrels a month of crude via a pipeline from Myanmar between July and November, Eikon data showed, although sources said talks for Saudi Arabia to acquire a stake in the refinery have stalled.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Monday the company will push to expand its market share in China and is still looking for new refining deals there despite OPEC’s likely limits on output next year.
Saudi Aramco will supply up to 70 percent of the oil required at its 300,000-bpd joint venture refinery in Malaysia with Petronas. Between China and Malaysia alone, Saudi Arabia will have to increase exports to
Asia by more than 500,000 bpd next year.
This comes as OPEC is discussing production cuts of as much as
1.4 million bpd for next year to prop up oil prices.
Between balancing global supplies and increasing market in Asia, Aramco may decide to “forgo market share in other markets like the US, where the surge in domestic production will make it difficult for the Saudis to retain market share anyway,” Rystad’s Rodriguez-Masiu said.
Saudi’s oil shipments to the US have risen recently to above
1 million bpd, but US output is also increasing, said the source familiar with Saudi Aramco’s export plans.
China oil demand helps Saudi Arabia challenge Russia’s export crown
China oil demand helps Saudi Arabia challenge Russia’s export crown
- Demand stirred up by new Chinese refiners pushing the Kingdom back into contention with Russia as top supplier to the world’s largest oil buyer
- Saudi Aramco to sign five crude supply agreements that will take its 2019 contract totals with Chinese buyers to 1.67 million bpd.
Saudi corporate lending fuels bank loans growth to near 2-year high of 12.46%
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s bank loans reached SR2.88 trillion ($768.93 billion) in October, a 12.46 percent annual growth and the highest in 20 months, official data showed.
According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, this growth reflects strong corporate and personal lending trends, driven by the Kingdom’s expanding economic activities.
Corporate loans were the main driver, surging 15.77 percent to SR1.54 trillion. This increase highlights the significant contribution of the real estate, wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors to the Kingdom’s economic dynamism.
Real estate activities led the charge, representing 20.29 percent of corporate lending and growing by 27.37 percent to SR312.4 billion.
Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 13 percent of corporate lending, reaching SR200.63 billion with an annual growth rate of 9.06 percent.
The manufacturing sector, a key component of Vision 2030’s economic diversification goals, represented 11.68 percent of lending at SR180.05 billion.
Meanwhile, electricity, gas, and water supplies contributed 11.32 percent to the total, growing significantly by nearly 30 percent to reach SR174.57 billion.
Notably, professional, scientific, and technical activities, though holding a smaller 0.54 percent share of corporate credit, witnessed the most significant surge, with a 53.55 percent growth rate to SR8.27 billion.
On the personal loans side, which includes various financing options for individuals, the sector grew 8.89 percent annually to SR1.34 trillion. This expansion underscores the continued confidence in consumer lending and the Kingdom’s economic diversification strategies.
In October, Saudi banks’ loans-to-deposits ratio also increased to 80.73 percent, up from 79.69 percent in the same month of 2023, as per data from the SAMA.
The calculation includes loans minus provisions and commissions, providing a clearer view of actual lending capacity.
SAMA has set a regulatory limit of 90 percent for loans-to-deposits ratios, balancing banks’ lending capacity with liquidity stability while supporting economic growth through corporate and individual borrowing.
Compared to other GCC nations, such as the UAE where loans-to-deposits ratios can exceed 100 percent, SAMA’s cap reflects a more cautious approach, prioritizing liquidity stability in the banking sector.
Saudi Arabia’s corporate and real estate lending are experiencing unprecedented growth, fueled by a combination of favorable economic conditions, government initiatives, and strategic investments under Vision 2030.
As the Kingdom accelerates its transformation, the demand for financing across key sectors, particularly real estate, has surged, reflecting its rapid urbanization and infrastructure development.
The Saudi Central Bank’s decision to mirror the US Federal Reserve’s policies, reducing interest rates by 50 basis points in September and an additional 25 basis points in November, has created an attractive borrowing environment.
This rate adjustment is anticipated to further boost real estate lending, allowing developers and individuals to capitalize on lower financing costs.
Real estate development remains central to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification goals. Under Vision 2030, initiatives to position Riyadh as a global business hub and the Regional Headquarters Program have significantly increased demand for commercial real estate.
These efforts are complemented by giga-projects like NEOM and Red Sea Global, which are redefining urban landscapes with sustainable and energy-efficient designs.
The Public Investment Fund’s commitment to green building practices, with over $19.4 billion allocated to eligible green projects, underscores the alignment between real estate growth and environmental sustainability.
In October, PIF highlighted its green bond investments, including $6.3 billion earmarked for green building projects. These investments aim to set new standards in energy efficiency, saving up to 20 percent of energy compared to conventional buildings and avoiding thousands of tons of carbon emissions annually.
Projects such as NEOM’s sustainable water infrastructure further illustrate how the Kingdom is integrating advanced sustainability measures into its development agenda.
Wholesale and retail market
The growing share of wholesale and retail trade lending by Saudi banks reflects the sector’s pivotal role in the Kingdom’s economic evolution.
This expansion is underpinned by a combination of government incentives, private sector dynamism, and increased consumer demand.
The Saudi government has actively encouraged the growth of this sector through measures like tax exemptions, financing initiatives, and technology transfer programs.
These policies have created a fertile ground for local entrepreneurs and attracted foreign companies eager to capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s business-friendly environment.
Consumer demand is a key driver, with rising interest in diverse products such as electronics, apparel, and food items.
The emergence of e-commerce platforms has further revolutionized the sector, enabling online retailers to reach broader audiences with ease, thereby increasing market participation.
According to data from 6Wresearch, such initiatives have heightened competition, lowered prices, and benefited both consumers and traders, adding to the sector’s momentum.
The sector’s importance is also evident in employment trends.
According to a report by DataSaudi, the wholesale and retail trade sector employed over 1.64 million people in the second quarter of 2024, making it one of the largest employers in the Kingdom, alongside construction and manufacturing.
This employment surge highlights the sector’s contribution to economic stability and growth.
However, challenges persist. Intense competition, pricing pressures, and the entry of international brands partnering with local retailers are sparking pricing wars that could erode profit margins for some players, according to 6Wresearch.
Despite these hurdles, ongoing government support and initiatives like Vision 2030 promise to create new investment opportunities, reinforcing the wholesale and retail trade sector as a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s economic future.
Almoosa Health’s IPO to drive expansion and innovation in Saudi healthcare: CEO
RIYADH: Almoosa Health Co.’s upcoming initial public offering is poised to drive significant growth and innovation in Saudi Arabia’s healthcare sector, said the company’s CEO.
In an interview with Arab News, Malek Almoosa emphasized that the IPO will attract capital for expansion and advanced technologies, enabling the company to strengthen its market position and broaden its services.
The CEO said Almoosa Health is well-positioned to capitalize on Saudi Arabia’s rapidly evolving health care sector, which is expected to grow at a 6.5 percent compound annual growth rate to reach SR360 billion ($95.83 billion) by 2030.
“The Kingdom’s health care infrastructure and utilization are still maturing and continue to lag global benchmarks, offering plenty of headroom for growth and investment in the sector,” he said.
The company plans to issue 13.3 million shares, including 9.3 million new offerings and 4 million existing shares. This will represent 30 percent of the company’s post-IPO capital.
“Our IPO plays an important role in attracting capital for investment in expansion and cutting-edge technology that will grow our footprint and our offering,” said Almoosa.
The public listing, a partly primary offering, is relatively rare in the Saudi market. It not only positions the company to reduce its leverage and enhance financial flexibility but also extend its regional reach.
“With a public listing, we also enhance our market positioning, attracting more business partnerships and broadening our patient demographic, and facilitating geographic expansion in the Eastern Province, where we are the leading health care provider,” he said.
Almoosa Health has already secured strong investor interest, with cornerstone commitments from Tawuniya and Al Fozan Holding Co., subscribing to 4.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, of the company’s post-offering capital.
Listing on Tadawul
The company said its decision to list on Tadawul aligns with its foundation and strategic direction. “We are, through and through, a Saudi organization that has grown with the Kingdom, and we wouldn’t have considered listing on any other financial market,” Almoosa said.
By becoming part of the region’s largest and most liquid stock exchange, the company aims to enhance its capital-raising capabilities, visibility, and credibility.
“Our decision to list on the Saudi Exchange reflects our strategic direction to harness local market insights, access a broad investor base, and continue to align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 health care objectives,” said Almoosa.
Expanding capacity
The CEO stated that funds raised would primarily support Almoosa Health’s expansion strategy, adding: “We have a clear growth strategy, planning to add around 700 beds by 2028, resulting in four hospitals with 1,430 beds and five primary care centers.”
He explained that proceeds from 21 percent of the 30 percent offering would go to the company to finance expansion plans, covering capital expenditures, working capital, general corporate purposes, and partial debt repayment, while the remaining 9 percent would go to the selling shareholder.
The company plans to open two major hospitals: Almoosa Specialist Hospital in Al Hofuf by 2027, with 300 beds and 200 clinics, and another in Al Khobar by 2028, featuring up to 400 beds and several centers of excellence.
“We have already acquired the land and commenced excavation work for both,” Almoosa revealed.
In addition, five primary care centers are planned in Al Ahsa, Al Khobar, and Dammam between 2025 and 2027.
The CEO noted that this expansion aligns with the company’s vision of becoming a “trusted provider of world-class health care” in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.
“Our ambitious expansion plan is designed to make that vision a reality, growing our footprint, widening our offering, and investing in the best technology in the market.”
Eastern Province, where Almoosa operates, is emerging as a hub for energy and petrochemical industries, driving demand for health care services.
With a capacity of 730 beds and services spanning primary, acute, and rehabilitative care, Almoosa serves nearly 1 million patients annually. The company’s integrated care model includes pharmacy, home health care, and telemedicine.
Almoosa acknowledged challenges in the sector, including talent shortages. “In a region where world-class practitioners are hard to come by, we educate, develop, and retain the most talented professionals,” he said, emphasizing the company’s focus on patient experience and competitive advantage.
Technology adoption
Almoosa pointed out that technology is at the core of the company’s strategy to enhance patient care and operational efficiency.
Its specialist hospital in Al Ahsa integrates advanced health IT systems to enhance patient care and operational efficiency. He revealed that innovations such as Tesla 3 MRI for high-resolution imaging and automated systems in laboratories and pharmacies underscore its commitment to cutting-edge solutions.
“We’ve been recognized for our advanced use of health IT, with HIMSS Stage 7 Accreditation reflecting exceptionally high levels of technology adoption,” said Almoosa.
With its IPO, Almoosa Health aims to play a pivotal role in shaping the healthcare landscape of Eastern Province and beyond, meeting the growing demand for high-quality, integrated services.
Moody’s upgrades ratings for 11 Saudi banks
RIYADH: Eleven banks in Saudi Arabia have seen their long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings upgraded by Moody’s thanks to a strong operating environment.
The ratings agency also attributed the decision – which affects institutions including Saudi National Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank – to the higher capacity of the Kingdom’s government to support the banks in case of need.
Earlier in November, Moody’s changed the issuer rating of the Saudi government from Aa3 from A1 and its outlook to stable from positive.
Other banks to be affected by the latest change include Saudi Awwal Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, and Alinma Bank, as well as Arab National Bank, Bank AlBilad, and the Saudi Investment Bank.
Bank AlJazira and Gulf International Bank — Saudi Arabia also saw changes.
The agency also changed the outlook to stable from positive on the long-term deposit ratings of all the banks except for Al Rajhi Bank, which already held that rating.
“Credit conditions for banks in Saudi Arabia are improving as economic diversification momentum remains robust,” said Moody’s in a press release, adding: “We expect non-hydrocarbon private sector GDP to continue expanding by about 4-5 percent in the coming years – among the highest in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and an indication of continued progress in diversification that will reduce the Kingdom’s exposure to oil market developments and long-term carbon transition over time.”
The agency also announced it had upgraded the Baseline Credit Assessments of Saudi National Bank, Saudi Awwal Bank, and Gulf International Bank — Saudi Arabia, and affirmed the BCAs of the remaining eight banks.
The continued increase in employment in the Kingdom, including the growing participation of women in the workforce, will support demand for banking services, according to Moody’s.
“In this context, we expect credit growth in the banking system to remain robust, particularly to high quality borrowers related to the execution of the giga-projects, which will in turn support asset quality and profitability for all banks across the system, albeit to varying degrees,” said the report.
When it came to the likelihood of government support, Moody’s changed its assessment to “very high” from “high” for Alinma Bank, Bank AlBilad, the Saudi Investment Bank and Bank AlJazira.
The report said this shift “reflects the vital role the banking system plays in supporting the diversification agenda.”
It added: “The government’s economic diversification plan continues to progress and will, over time, further reduce Saudi Arabia’s exposure to oil market developments. Additionally, the stability and resiliency of the banking system support investor confidence, private domestic or foreign investment which is critical to government’s diversification plan and in our view increases the likelihood for government support in case needed.”
In its analysis of Saudi National Bank – the largest such institution across the GCC region – Moody’s said its balance sheet is well diversified across retail, corporate and treasury and underpins its strong and improving asset quality with nonperforming loans to gross loans at 1.6 percent as of September.
“The bank’s liquid buffers remain healthy and sufficient to moderate concentration risk on government deposits which is a common feature for all banks in Saudi,” the report added.
Regarding the decision to affirm Al Rajhi Bank’s BCA at a3, Moody’s said this “reflects the bank’s dominant domestic Islamic retail franchise and our expectation that the improved operating conditions will support in maintaining the bank’s financial performance.”
Oil Updates – prices set to end week over 3% lower as supply risks ease
LONDON: Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly drop of more than 3 percent, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased, alleviating earlier disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $72.73 a barrel by 10:58 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.52, down 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, compared with Wednesday’s closing price.
On a weekly basis, Brent futures were down 3.3 percent and the US WTI benchmark was trading 3.8 percent lower.
Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations on Thursday over alleged violations of their ceasefire that came into effect the day before. The deal had at first appeared to alleviate the potential for supply disruption from a broader conflict that had led to a risk premium for oil.
Oil supplies from the Middle East, though, have been largely unaffected during Israel’s parallel conflicts with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1 to avoid a scheduling conflict. OPEC+ is expected to further extend its production cuts at the meeting.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, downgraded its Brent price forecast on Friday to $76/bbl in 2025 from $78/bbl previously, citing a “bearish fundamental outlook, ongoing weakness in oil market sentiment and the downside pressure on prices we expect to accrue under Trump.”
“Although we expect the OPEC+ group will opt to roll-over the existing cuts into the new year, this will not be sufficient to fully erase the production glut we forecast for next year,” BMI analysts said in a note.
Also on Thursday, Russia struck Ukrainian energy facilities for the second time this month. ANZ analysts said the attack risked retaliation that could affect Russian oil supply.
Iran told a UN nuclear watchdog it would install more than 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants, a confidential report by the watchdog said on Thursday.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said Iranian supply could drop by as much as 1 million barrels per day in the first half of next year if Western powers tighten sanctions enforcement on its crude oil output.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,641
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 50.52 points, or 0.44 percent, closing at 11,641.31 on Thursday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.02 billion ($1.60 billion), with 134 stocks advancing and 85 retreating.
Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu rose 229.98 points, or 0.76 percent, to close at 30,394.70. Of the listed stocks, 44 advanced while 38 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 8.37 points, or 0.58 percent, to close at 1,460.35.
The best-performing stock of the day was Tamkeen Human Resource Co., whose share price surged 18.00 percent to SR76.70.
Other top performers included Zamil Industrial Investment Co., whose share price rose 8.70 percent to SR29.35, and Dr. Soliman Abdel Kader Fakeeh Hospital Co., whose stock price increased 5.66 percent to SR63.50.
Saudi Cable Co. recorded the biggest drop, falling 6.93 percent to SR84.60.
Saudi Enaya Cooperative Insurance Co. also saw its share price fall 4.25 percent to SR13.08.
Meanwhile, Saudi Automotive Services Co. saw its stock price drop 4.23 percent to SR68.00.
On the announcements front, Saudi Telecom Co. revealed that it had received foreign investment authorization from the Spanish Council of Ministers, allowing it to increase its voting rights from 4.97 percent to 9.97 percent and gain the right to appoint a board member at Telefonica.
According to a Tadawul statement, the change in stc ownership from 9.9 percent in the previous announcement to 9.97 percent reflects Telefonica’s cancellation of shares in April. stc is currently completing the necessary steps to finalize the increase in its voting rights, which is expected to be completed in the coming period.
stc ended the session at SR39.95, with no change in its share price.
Nofoth Food Products Co. announced the acquisition of a mixed-use commercial and residential land in Riyadh’s Hittin neighborhood for SR22 million, covering 1,580.37 sq. meters. This acquisition is part of the company’s strategic plan to expand operations with new commercial offices and develop its headquarters.
According to a bourse filing, the deal will be financed through the company’s internal resources. The land acquisition will increase the firm’s fixed assets and positively impact financial ratios such as return on assets.
Nofoth Food Products Co. ended the session at SR18.00, down 1.69 percent.
