SIDON, Lebanon: Rozan Qarqour lives with her husband and six children in a tiny room in an unfinished building, where they share a bathroom with other Syrian refugees. Her husband sells paper cups of cardamom-flavored Arabic coffee on the streets of the Lebanese port city of Sidon to earn a few dollars to buy bread and vegetables.
But despite their dismal life in Lebanon, the family, which fled Syria’s central province of Hama six years ago, has no plans to return home. Nor do the 160 other families who live in the Ouzai compound — or most of the other 1.2 million Syrian refugees who live in Lebanon.
“I will not take my children back to death and hunger,” said Qarqour, 32, as she sat with other women on the floor cutting fresh fava beans that would later be cooked with rice on a small gas burner.
A much touted Russian initiative to facilitate the return of refugees of Syria’s 7-year-old war from around the region appears to have fizzled out, with only a tiny fraction of the nearly 6 million who fled their country since the start of the conflict in March 2011 returning home.
The Russian military says 114,000 Syrians have returned home since the beginning of 2018. The UN refugee agency says it has verified only 37,000 refugees who have voluntarily returned this year.
Syria’s war has displaced half the pre-war population of 23 million people, of which 5.6 million have fled the country. In Lebanon, where Syrians make up nearly a quarter of the population, most of the refugees say they intend to stay put, citing economic concerns, ongoing fighting and destroyed homes.
The Qarqour family’s region of Sahel Al-Ghab is still in rebel hands and often gets bombed by the government, and their home has been destroyed. There are no jobs there, Qarqour says, and she hopes they can resettle in a third country, although the family has not yet applied.
The fighting has wound down after seven years of brutal war. Using overwhelming military force, and with the help of Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias on the ground, President Bashar Assad has retaken key cities and major population centers in Syria.
But most refugees say they do not feel safe returning while the government they fled is still in place. Fighting continues in some areas, while others are in ruins. Many are worried their sons could be picked up for conscription or detained, harassed or imprisoned if they go back. Others worry they won’t find jobs.
Meanwhile, many have put down roots across the region and in Europe, and do not want to risk losing what they built by returning to Syria.
Russia, a key ally of Assad, is eager to show a return to normalcy in Syria and has pushed to repatriate Syrians who fled. However, the UN has expressed concern about a premature return before the situation stabilizes and without guarantees for returning refugees.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in August that “all conditions are in place” for the return of 1 million refugees, quoting progress in restoring infrastructure and the fact that hostilities have largely subsided.
At the height of the conflict, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon reached 1.2 million, making the tiny Mediterranean country the biggest host of refugees per capita in the world. Today there are about 940,000, after some returned to Syria or were resettled in other countries, according to Lebanon’s Minister of State for Refugee Affairs Mouin Merhebi.
Merhebi said about 12,000 Syrian refugees have returned home from Lebanon since June. His numbers are much lower than those released by Lebanon’s General Security Directorate, which says more than 87,000 have returned. Merhebi, a harsh critic of the Syrian government and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, said some of those who have been registered as returnees go back and forth between the neighboring countries.
Eager to see Syrians return because of the strain their presence puts on the struggling economy, the Lebanese government has embraced the Russian plan and organizes convoys for refugees to return to Syria on almost a weekly basis.
Most will continue to opt out for now, however.
At the Ouzai compound in Sidon, time passes slowly for the refugees. Abu Ahmad, 42, sat in the yard eating mushabbak, a Syrian sweet consisting of fried pastry dipped in syrup made by one of the residents. He works in agriculture but his boss has not called him for a week.
“I am not happy in Lebanon, but here there is school for my children, there is a doctor if I need it and there are hospitals for an emergency,” said the father of five daughters and four sons. “Here I can make enough money to survive.”
Ahmad added that he applied years ago for resettlement in a third country.
“I am ready to go to the south pole if I get a job there,” he said.
As Syria war winds down, refugees stay put despite hardships
As Syria war winds down, refugees stay put despite hardships
- Syria’s war has displaced half the pre-war population of 23 million people, of which 5.6 million have fled the country
- The UN refugee agency says it has verified only 37,000 refugees who have voluntarily returned this year
Lebanon says 1 dead, 9 wounded in Israeli strike on Beirut
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s health ministry said one person was killed and nine others wounded in an Israeli strike on Sunday evening in central Beirut.
“The Israeli enemy strike on Mar Elias Street in Beirut led to the death of one person and wounded nine others, two of them critically,” a health ministry statement said.
A lawmaker from Lebanon’s Jamaa Islamiya denied a report on official media that the group aligned to Hamas and Hezbollah was the target of an Israeli strike on Beirut late Sunday.
Imad Hout told AFP that “no center or institution affiliated with the group is located in the area targeted by the strike, and no member of the group was targeted.” A Lebanese security source told AFP that the strike hit an electronics store in the Mar Elias district, a commercial and residential area.
Netanyahu remains key obstacle to Middle East peace, says Israeli analyst
- 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan seen as most viable framework for resolving Israeli-Palestinian conflict, achieving normalization between Israel and Arab world, Yossi Mekelberg argues
- He accuses Netanyahu of using wars in Gaza, Lebanon to delay his prosecution on corruption charges
Chicago, IL: Donald Trump’s re-election as US president could help bring peace between Palestinians and Israelis, but such progress would require a change in Israel’s leadership, said prominent Israeli analyst Yossi Mekelberg.
Speaking during an appearance on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” Thursday, Mekelberg argued that while there is “wide-ranging” speculation about what the upcoming US president might do in his second term, the current Israeli administration needs to step down before peace can be achieved.
“In my opinion, Israel needs to change the government, full stop. I mean, for everyone’s sake,” said Mekelberg, who is a senior consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
Mekelberg underscored the relevance of the 2002 Saudi Arabia Peace Plan, which offers normalization with Israel in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories and a resolution to the Palestinian issue. He described it as “the most viable option to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (in such a way) that both sides are satisfied.
“When we talk about normalization and we think about the UAE or Bahrain or Morocco, it was Saudi Arabia (that was) the first to offer this to put it on the table 22 years ago,” he said.
The Saudi initiative, first proposed at the 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut and reaffirmed in 2007, has repeatedly been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The plan offered Israel full normalization with Arab states in exchange for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories, including the Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights.
“This has been on the table for more than 22 years. And I think this has always been the right approach,” Mekelberg argued. “We know that there were discussions about normalization over the (past) year or so before October 7th. There is no way in the world, if Israel refuses to make concessions on the Palestinian issues, that normalization will be back on the table.”
Before the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict in October 2023, US-brokered normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared within reach. Netanyahu himself referenced this possibility during his speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, claiming the region was on the cusp of a “dramatic breakthrough.” However, the escalation of violence in Gaza first and Lebanon after derailed those efforts.
At the recent Riyadh summit, both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated that normalization with Israel would not be discussed without significant progress toward establishing a two-state solution. Mekelberg said this stance reflects a broader consensus among Arab leaders that resolving the Palestinian issue is key to achieving lasting peace.
“We saw what happens when the Palestinian issue is not resolved … For some people, when you say that, the interpretation is almost like justifying what happened on October 7th. Obviously not. No one ever can justify something like this,” he noted, adding that conflicts that are left “to fester will catch you in all sorts (of ways) and will lead certain people to do all sorts of things,” leaving leaders to deal with the “fallout.”
This approach “is much worse for Israel than working toward peace in the first place,” Mekelberg said, criticizing the current Israeli narrative that dismisses Palestinian leadership as incapable of negotiation.
Mekelberg acknowledged the widespread criticism of the Palestinian Authority, which was established in the 1990s under the Oslo Accords to govern areas of the West Bank and Gaza. The Fatah-controlled body has been accused of impotence and ineffectiveness, particularly during the current crisis. As a result, Tel Aviv has dismissed the possibility of negotiating with its leaders, raising questions about who could lead Palestinian territories toward a viable peace process.
“Israel needs change on so many levels,” Mekelberg emphasized, highlighting Netanyahu’s extended tenure in power, spanning 15 years almost consecutively and additional terms between 1996 and 1999.
“(He) is longest serving (prime minister), more than David Ben Gurion, who’s founder of the country. He’s a master manipulator. He understands the Israeli political system and psyche in a way that no one knows better than him and he managed to win (the) election. The fact that he, considering what happened only a year ago, is still prime minister, is a complete and colossal failure to defend Israel.”
Netanyahu, who previously served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, returned to office in 2022 despite facing long-standing corruption charges. The indictments, filed in 2019, allege breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. While he relinquished other ministerial roles, he has held onto the premiership, using his coalition with Israel’s most extreme political parties to influence the judicial system and delay his trial.
Critics argue that Netanyahu has exploited Israel’s volatile situation to postpone legal proceedings. This week, the Jerusalem District Court rejected his request for a further delay, and he is scheduled to testify on Dec. 2.
Referring to Netanyahu as a “Teflon politician” to whom no scandal seems to stick, Mekelberg questioned how long he could maintain his position. “And, I will be the first to admit, I don’t always understand what is the appeal.”
Discussing the potential impact of Trump’s re-election, Mekelberg voiced cautious optimism about the former president’s ability to broker peace. He downplayed concerns over Trump’s far-right appointees, noting that if his first term is any indication, “there will be people coming and going in this administration probably within a year.” However, he stressed that Trump’s success would hinge on major changes within Israel’s political landscape.
The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To listen to the full episode or past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow. To get more information on host Ray Hanania, visit ArabNews.com or his website at RayHanania.com.
Frankly Speaking: How do Palestinians perceive a new Trump presidency?
- Foreign minister says Palestinians are hopeful about the next US administration as there is now global momentum behind the two-state solution
- Varsen Aghabekian Shahin tells “Franking Speaking” coalition spearheaded by Saudi Arabia to help realize statehood represents a source of hope
DUBAI: Although the previous administration of US President-elect Donald Trump was seen as a staunch ally of Israel, Varsen Aghabekian Shahin, Palestine’s minister of state for foreign affairs and expatriates, says Palestinians remain hopeful about his return to the White House.
In large part this is due to a perception that the international climate surrounding the issue of Palestinian statehood is fundamentally different to that which prevailed during Trump’s last administration, owed in large part to events in Gaza and the resulting wave of solidarity.
“I have to be hopeful. We have to remain hopeful,” said Aghabekian Shahin during an appearance on the Arab News current affairs program “Franking Speaking,” a week after President-elect Trump secured a powerful mandate in a deeply polarized US election race.
Her optimism, however, is tempered by the decades of frustration that Palestinians have felt under Israeli occupation. “What we have been hoping for, as always, is a Palestinian state with our sovereignty and our self-determination,” she told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.
While Trump’s first term was marked by controversial moves such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, Aghabekian Shahin believes there remains a possibility for change.
“With the incoming president in the United States, our hope remains the same. We hope President Trump will take a more balanced approach ... and put on his agenda the rights of the Palestinians.”
During his last administration, Trump championed normalization agreements between Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords. However, Aghabekian Shahin says “peace will not be sustainable if Palestinians’ rights are not taken into consideration.”
In contrast with the period coinciding with Trump’s last administration, Aghabekian Shahin says there is now a global momentum behind Palestinian statehood, catalyzed by shifting alliances and growing public outrage over Israeli actions in Gaza.
“I think times today are different than they were a couple years ago,” said Aghabekian Shahin.
“The ongoing genocide in Gaza, the mounting pressure and dissatisfaction all over capitals in Europe … and the coalition today led by Saudi Arabia on the materialization of the state of Palestine — these are new dimensions that cannot be ignored.”
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza came in retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which killed more than 1,200 and saw 250 taken hostage. The conflict in the tiny Palestinian enclave has resulted in more than 43,700 dead and 1.9 million displaced.
International criticism of the scale of destruction in Gaza has intensified over the past year, with many questioning Israel’s adherence to international law. Israeli leaders could face war crimes charges before the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.
One positive to emerge from the conflict is renewed interest in the long-dormant effort to achieve the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which envisions an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital living peacefully alongside Israel.
Lauding Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic and humanitarian efforts, Aghabekian Shahin said a new international coalition spearheaded by the Kingdom to help expedite the two-state solution represented a source of hope for Palestinians.
This ambition was given further weight by the joint summit of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation that took place in the Saudi capital on Nov. 11, during which the leaders of 57 Arab and Islamic countries called on Israel to negotiate an end to the decades-old conflict.
“Saudi Arabia has been extremely important for aid and its support to the Palestinian people,” said Aghabekian Shahin. “The summit that was held in Riyadh is a very important message. Fifty-seven countries were present in the meeting, with clear decisions and a focus on ending the occupation.”
Saudi Arabia has explicitly linked the normalization of ties with Israel to progress on Palestinian statehood. Aghabekian Shahin said this position is “a very important step and something that pushes forward and brings a lot of hope to the Palestinian people.”
During the recent joint summit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide, marking the first occasion that a Saudi official had publicly done so. Nevertheless, there are still several nations, including many of Israel’s Western allies, who have avoided using the term.
While acknowledging the scale of human suffering in Gaza, Aghabekian Shahin said the precise terminology is less important than addressing the atrocities that are taking place.
“Even if 300,000 people are killed in Gaza, God forbidding, some countries will not call it a genocide,” she said. “What is happening is a humanitarian catastrophe. ... Governments and people are more and more realizing that these atrocities cannot continue.”
Asked whether Hamas bears responsibility for triggering the carnage that has befallen Gaza, Aghabekian Shahin did not condemn the Palestinian militant group outright, focusing instead on the underlying conditions that have fueled the cycle of violence.
“Who takes the blame first and foremost is the belligerent occupation that has been suffocating Palestinian lives over seven decades,” she said. “Gazans were living in an open-air prison… When people as human beings are cornered and they don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel, then obviously violence erupts.”
Despite the grim reality of the situation and the intense animosity between the warring sides, Aghabekian Shahin underscored the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international law to resolve the conflict.
“Any violence perpetrated by any side is unacceptable,” she said. “We need to put violence aside and resort to mechanisms that will bring us closer to our liberation as per international law.”
This commitment to seeking peaceful solutions aligns with Aghabekian Shahin’s extensive background in academia, human rights advocacy, and as a veteran member of the Palestinian negotiations unit.
Before her ministerial appointment in April, she served in various roles, including as director of the Capacity and Institutional Building Project at the Office of the Palestinian President and commissioner-general of the Palestinian Independent Commission for Human Rights.
A member of Jerusalem’s Armenian community, Aghabekian Shahin has witnessed firsthand the pressures faced by minority groups in the city. She highlights the significance of the Armenian Quarter in the Old City, which has come under growing threat by far-right Jewish settlers.
“The land in question is invaluable,” she said, referring to a bitter ongoing legal dispute between the Armenian Patriarchate and an Australian-Israeli developer to lease an area of land in the Armenian Quarter to build a luxury hotel.
“This land is part and parcel of the heritage of the Armenian people for decades in Jerusalem,” said Aghabekian Shahin. “The community has a very good team of Israeli lawyers along with international lawyers who are working on the case.”
The Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem’s Old City has long been a symbol of Armenian identity and presence in the region. Aghabekian Shahin believes its preservation is vital not just for Armenians but for Jerusalem’s multicultural heritage.
The flight of Christian communities more broadly from Palestine and the wider Middle East is itself a bellwether of the decline of religious pluralism in the region. Aghabekian Shahin attributes this trend to the hardships of living under occupation.
“People are sick and tired of occupation,” she said. “They want a better future for their children. This better future cannot happen under occupation… With an end of occupation, there is an economic horizon and a future that people can look to.”
As Palestinians await clarity on the global stage, Aghabekian Shahin remains resolute. “What we hope for today is what we have always hoped for — a sovereign Palestinian state living in peace next to Israel.”
The stakes are high, however, not only for Palestinians but for the broader Middle East, where peace remains elusive. Aghabekian Shahin believes the next US administration will have to address the root causes of the conflict.
“Without justice for Palestinians, there will be no sustainable peace.”
Lebanon army says Israeli attack kills 2 soldiers
- “The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Mari in the Hasbaya area
BEIRUT: The Lebanese army said an Israeli attack on Sunday killed two soldiers, accusing Israel of directly targeting their position in south Lebanon where the Israeli military is fighting Hezbollah.
“The Israeli enemy directly targeted an army center” in Mari in the Hasbaya area, causing “the death of one of the soldiers and the wounding of three others, one of whom is in critical condition,” the army said in a statement.
A separate statement shortly afterwards said “a second soldier” had died of his wounds.
Israeli fire has killed more than a dozen Lebanese soldiers since all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group erupted in September, according to an AFP tally of official announcements.
Egypt’s middle class cuts costs as IMF-backed reforms take hold
- The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies
Cairo: Egypt’s economy has been in crisis for years, but as the latest round of International Monetary Fund-backed reforms bites, much of the country’s middle class has found itself struggling to afford goods once considered basics.
The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies.
On the ground, that has translated into an eroding middle class with depleted purchasing power, turning into luxuries what were once considered necessities.
Nourhan Khaled, a 27-year-old private sector employee, has given up “perfumes and chocolates.”
“All my salary goes to transport and food,” she said as she perused items at a west Cairo supermarket, deciding what could stay and what needed to go.
For some, this has extended to cutting back on even the most basic goods — such as milk.
“We do not buy sweets anymore and we’ve cut down on milk,” said Zeinab Gamal, a 28-year-old housewife.
Most recently, Egypt hiked fuel prices by 17.5 percent last month, marking the third increase just this year.
Mounting pressures
The measures are among the conditions for an $8 billion IMF loan program, expanded this year from an initial $3 billion to address a severe economic crisis in the North African country.
“The lifestyle I grew up with has completely changed,” said Manar, a 38-year-old mother of two, who did not wish to give her full name.
She has taken on a part-time teaching job to increase her family’s income to 15,000 Egyptian pounds ($304), just so she can “afford luxuries like sports activities for their children.”
Her family has even trimmed their budget for meat, reducing their consumption from four times to “only two times per week.”
Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, is facing one of its worst economic crises ever.
Foreign debt quadrupled since 2015 to register $160.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Much of the debt is the result of financing for large-scale projects, including a new capital east of Cairo.
The war in Gaza has also worsened the country’s economic situation.
Repeated attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza have resulted in Egypt’s vital Suez Canal — a key source of foreign currency — losing over 70 percent of its revenue this year.
Amid growing public frustration, officials have recently signalled a potential re-evaluation of the IMF program.
“If these challenges will make us put unbearable pressure on public opinion, then the situation must be reviewed with the IMF,” President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said last month.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also ruled out any new financial burdens on Egyptians “in the coming period,” without specifying a timeframe.
Economists, however, say the reforms are already taking a toll.
Wael Gamal, director of the social justice unit at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, said they led to “a significant erosion in people’s living conditions” as prices of medicine, services and transportation soared.
He believes the IMF program could be implemented “over a longer period and in a more gradual manner.”
’Bitter pill to swallow’
Egypt has been here before. In 2016, a three-year $12-billion loan program brought sweeping reforms, kicking off the first of a series of currency devaluations that have decimated the Egyptian pound’s value over the years.
Egypt’s poverty rate stood at 29.7 percent in 2020, down slightly from 32.5 percent the previous year in 2019, according to the latest statistics by the country’s CAPMAS agency.
But Gamal said the current IMF-backed reforms have had a “more intense” effect on people.
“Two years ago, we had no trouble affording basics,” said Manar.
“Now, I think twice before buying essentials like food and clothing,” she added.
Earlier this month, the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva touted the program’s long-term impact, saying Egyptians “will see the benefits of these reforms in a more dynamic, more prosperous Egyptian economy.”
Her remarks came as the IMF began a delayed review of its loan program, which could unlock $1.2 billion in new financing for Egypt.
Economist and capital market specialist Wael El-Nahas described the loan as a “bitter pill to swallow,” but called it “a crucial tool” forcing the government to make “systematic” decisions.
Still, many remain skeptical.
“The government’s promises have never proven true,” Manar said.
Egyptian expatriates send about $30 billion in remittances per year, a major source of foreign currency.
Manar relies on her brother abroad for essentials, including instant coffee which now costs 400 Egyptian pounds (about $8) per jar.
“All I can think about now is what we will do if there are more price increases in the future,” she said.
