BEIJING: China’s exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December and imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand.
Adding to policymakers’ worries, data on Monday also showed China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018, which could prompt President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their cantankerous trade dispute.
Softening demand in China is already being felt around the world, with slowing sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles prompting profit warnings from the likes of Apple and Jaguar Land Rover.
The dismal December trade readings suggest China’s economy may have lost more momentum late in the year than earlier thought, despite a slew of growth boosting measures in recent months ranging from higher infrastructure spending to tax cuts.
Some analysts had already speculated that Beijing may have to speed up and intensify its policy easing and stimulus measures this year after factory activity shrank in December.
Exports in December unexpectedly fell 4.4 percent from a year earlier, with demand in most of its major markets weakening. Imports also saw a shock drop, falling 7.6 percent in their biggest decline since July 2016.
“Export growth dropped more than anticipated as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to remain weak in the coming quarters,” Capital Economics said in a note.
“Meanwhile, with policy easing unlikely to put a floor beneath domestic economic activity until the second half of this year, import growth is likely to remain subdued.”
China’s politically-sensitive surplus with the US rose 17.2 percent to $323.32 billion last year, the highest on record going back to 2006, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data.
That compared with about $275.81 billion in 2017.
China’s large trade surplus with the United States has long been a sore point with Washington, which has demanded Beijing should take steps to reduce it.
Washington imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened further action if Beijing does not change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
However, Beijing’s export data had been surprisingly resilient to tariffs for much of 2018, possibly because companies ramped up shipments before broader and stiffer US duties went into effect.
China’s total global exports rose 9.9 percent in 2018, its strongest trade performance in seven years, while imports increased 15.8 percent last year.
But December’s gloomy data seemed to suggest the US front-loading effect has tapered off, and after several months of falling factory orders a further weakening in China’s exports is widely expected in coming months.
Many US warehouses are already packed to the rafters with Chinese goods that American retailers rushed in ahead of higher tariffs.
China exports to the US declined 3.5 percent in December while its imports from the US were down 35.8 percent for the month.
The higher tariffs China levied on US supplies also hit the country’s overall import growth. For all of 2018, soybean, the second largest imports from the US, fell for the first time since 2011.
Even if Washington and Beijing reach a trade deal in their current round of talks, it would be no panacea for China’s slowing economy, analysts say.
Sources told Reuters last week that Beijing is planning to lower its economic growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year after an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, the slowest pace in 28 years.
China’s exports shrink most in two years, raising risks for global economy
China’s exports shrink most in two years, raising risks for global economy
- China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018
- Many US warehouses are already packed to the rafters with Chinese goods that American retailers rushed in ahead of higher tariffs
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of National Guard achieves 100% localization of maintenance contracts
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of National Guard has increased local spending on maintenance, repairs, and operations for its ground systems from 1.6 percent to 100 percent over the past four years.
The milestone was celebrated at a signing ceremony for new localization contracts under the patronage of the Minister of National Guard, Prince Abdullah bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz, with the participation of the General Authority for Military Industries.
The initiative is part of a broader effort to achieve sustainable development within the Kingdom’s military industries, enhance local capabilities, and support Vision 2030 goals. In line with this, the ministry has signed a series of contracts with local companies to improve the sustainability and efficiency of military systems. These agreements aim to strengthen military readiness, contribute to economic growth, and create job opportunities within Saudi Arabia.
These pacts include a sustainability contract for integrated weapons systems and heavy weaponry with SAMI Defense Systems Co., an electronic systems sustainment agreement with SAMI Advanced Electronics Co., and a vehicle sustainability deal with Alkhorayef Industries Co.
In conjunction with these contracts, GAMI announced signing two industrial participation deals to enhance local content and build national industrial capabilities.
The first agreement, signed with SAMI Defense Systems Co., focuses on the sustainability of integrated weapons and heavy weaponry, aiming to achieve over 60 percent industrial participation and create new employment opportunities for Saudi professionals.
The second contract, signed with Alkhorayef Industries Co., pertains to the sustainability of military vehicles and aims to encourage investment in qualified industrial activities to strengthen the defense sector.
The ministry highlighted the economic benefits of the localization program, including creating over 800 direct jobs and empowering national companies to take a central role in the Kingdom’s defense ecosystem.
Key accomplishments celebrated at the event included the development of a strategic implementation plan for sustainability localization, the establishment of innovation laboratories for spare parts manufacturing, and progress in achieving over 60 percent industrial participation in contracts.
These initiatives also contribute to enhancing local capabilities and fostering innovation within the Kingdom’s defense sector.
The event was attended by several high-ranking officials, including Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef, GAMI Governor Ahmed Al-Ohali, Governor of the General Authority for Defense Development Faleh Al-Suleiman, and President of the General Authority for Civil Aviation Abdulaziz Al-Duailej.
Senior representatives from the companies awarded the contracts. Military and civilian officials from the Ministry of National Guard were also present.
SRC and Hassana launch mortgage-backed securities to boost real estate investment
RIYADH: The region’s first-of-its-kind residential mortgage-backed securities will be available in Saudi Arabia as the Kingdom seeks to enhance liquidity and expand investment opportunities in the real estate finance sector.
A memorandum of understanding, signed between the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co., a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, and Hassana Investment Co., seeks to diversify Saudi Arabia’s financial markets by introducing an innovative asset class.
The issuance of mortgage-backed securities is anticipated to attract a wide base of local and global investors to the secondary mortgage market, creating new opportunities for investment in the sector.
Majeed Al-Abduljabbar, CEO of SRC, said: “Our partnership with Hassana marks a significant milestone in supporting the evolution of the housing finance landscape and fostering the development of Saudi Arabia’s capital markets.”
He added: “Together, we aim to introduce innovative financial solutions that deliver value to both investors and citizens while aligning with Vision 2030’s objectives.”
The deal, signed in the presence of Majid Al-Hogail, minister of municipalities and housing, and Mohammed Al-Jadaan, minister of finance, aligns with the Housing Program and Financial Sector Development Program under Vision 2030.
“This collaboration establishes a new standard for partnerships, enabling the development of scalable financial solutions that contribute to the Kingdom’s economic development goals. It aligns with Hassana’s strategy of diversifying its investment portfolios through long-term partnerships with entities like SRC,” said Saad Al-Fadhli, CEO of Hassana.
Hassana’s participation as a key institutional investor underscores the potential to create sustainable economic investment opportunities.
This comes as the Kingdom’s real estate market continues to show strong demand, with annual growth in residential sales transaction volumes across major metropolitan areas.
Saudi banks’ mortgage lending hit a near three-year high of SR10.06 billion ($2.7 billion) in November, marking a 51.23 percent year-on-year increase and the highest monthly amount in over two years, according to data from the Kingdom’s central bank.
This surge reflects strong activity in the housing market, with houses accounting for 65 percent of the loans, followed by apartments at 31 percent and land purchases at 4 percent.
As part of its Vision 2030 agenda, the Kingdom is fast-tracking residential construction, particularly in Riyadh, to accommodate its growing population and attract international talent.
Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade balance surplus slips 5%
RIYADH: Qatar recorded a foreign merchandise trade balance surplus of 57.7 billion Qatari riyals ($15.8 billion) in the third quarter of 2024, down 5 percent year on year, new data revealed.
Merchandise trade balance surplus is the difference between total exports and imports.
According to figures released by the Gulf nation’s Planning and Statistics Authority, the country’s total exports in the third quarter of 2024 — including domestic goods and re-exports — were valued at 87.8 billion riyals. This represents a 2.2 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023.
The value of Qatar’s imports during the same period amounted to 30.1 billion riyals, up 4.1 percent compared to the same quarter in 2023.
The figures fall in with the nation’s trajectory to restore government revenues to pre-2014 oil price shock levels and double its economy by 2031, according to an analysis by Standard Chartered in August.
The data also reflects the steady growth of Qatar’s non-oil economy, contributing to two-thirds of the country’s gross domestic product.
Exports breakdown
The figures further disclosed that the drop in exports is mainly attributed to lower exports of mineral fuels, lubricants, and related materials by 5 billion riyals, or 6.5 percent, and miscellaneous manufactured articles by 100 million riyals, or 22 percent.
Increases were mainly recorded in chemicals and related products by 1.5 billion riyals, or 24.5 percent, machinery and transport equipment by 1.2 billion riyals, or 53.3 percent, and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by 400 billion riyals, or 17.1 percent.
Exports of crude materials, inedible, except fuels, also witnessed a rise of 100 million, or 24.8 percent.
Imports breakdown
The rise in import values is mainly linked to increases in machinery and transport equipment by 800 million riyals, or 6.7 percent, chemicals and related products by 400 million riyals, or 17.2 percent, and mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials by 320 million riyals, or 58.2 percent.
Imports of food and live animals also jumped by 300 million riyals or 9.8 percent.
Meanwhile, decreases were recorded mainly in miscellaneous manufactured articles by 400 million, or 6.7 percent as well as manufactured goods classified chiefly by material by 300 million, or 7.7 percent.
Principal destinations
The PSA data showed that Asia was the principal destination of exports for the country, representing 75.9 percent, as well as the primary origin of Qatar’s imports, accounting for 39.7 percent.
The Gulf Cooperation Council followed, accounting for 11.6 percent of exports and 11.3 percent of imports, respectively.
The EU came next, with 7.7 percent of exports and 26 percent of imports.
Turkish manufacturing sector nears stabilization in December, PMI shows
- Employment in the manufacturing sector saw a renewed decline, reversing a rise in November
- Input costs increased sharply due to higher raw material prices
ISTANBUL: Turkiye’s manufacturing sector contracted at the slowest rate in eight months in December, a business survey showed on Thursday, in a sign that the sector is nearing stabilization.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.1 last month from 48.3 in November, moving nearer to the 50.0 threshold denoting growth, according to the survey by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry and S&P Global.
“December PMI data provided plenty of hope for the sector in 2025. While business conditions continued to moderate, the latest slowdown was only marginal as signs of improvement were seen in a range of variables across the survey,” said Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The survey highlighted a softer moderation in production, which declined at the slowest pace in nine months, suggesting some improvement in demand. The rate of slowdown in new orders and purchasing eased, although demand remained subdued.
“If this momentum can be built on at the start of 2025, we could see the sector return to growth. The prospects for the sector should be helped by a much more benign inflationary environment than has been the case in recent years,” Harker said.
Despite the positive signs, employment in the manufacturing sector saw a renewed decline, reversing a rise in November, the survey showed.
Input costs increased sharply due to higher raw material prices, but the rate of output price inflation slowed to its weakest in over five years as some firms offered discounts to boost sales.
Oil Updates — crude rises as investors return from holidays, eye China recovery
SINGAPORE: Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday, the first day of trade for 2025, as investors returning from holidays cautiously eyed a recovery in China’s economy and fuel demand following a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.06 percent, to $74.82 a barrel by 08:47 a.m. Saudi time after settling up 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day for 2024. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.26 percent, to $71.91 a barrel after closing 73 cents higher in the previous session.
China’s Xi said on Tuesday in his New Year’s address that the country would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.
China’s factory activity grew in December, according to the private-sector Caixin/S&P Global survey on Thursday, but at a slower than expected pace amid concerns over the trade outlook and risks from tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump.
The data echoed an official survey released on Tuesday that showed China’s manufacturing activity barely grew in December, though services and construction recovered. The data suggested policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors as China braces for new trade risks.
Traders are returning to their desks and probably weighing higher geopolitical risks and also the impact of Trump running the US economy red hot versus the impact of tariffs, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
“Tomorrow’s US ISM manufacturing release will be key to crude oil’s next move,” Sycamore added.
Sycamore said WTI’s weekly chart is winding itself into a tighter range, which suggests a big move is coming.
“Rather than trying to predict in which way the break will occur, we would be inclined to wait for the break and then go with it,” he added.
Investors are also awaiting weekly US oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration that has been delayed until Thursday due to the New Year holiday.
US crude oil and distillate stockpiles are expected to have fallen last week while gasoline inventories likely rose, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
US oil demand surged to the highest levels since the pandemic in October at 21.01 million barrels per day, up about 700,000 bpd from September, EIA data showed on Tuesday.
Crude output from the world’s top producer rose to a record 13.46 million bpd in October, up 260,000 bpd from September, the report showed.
In 2025, oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel, down for a third year after a 3 percent decline in 2024, as weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies offset efforts by OPEC+ to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed.
In Europe, Russia halted gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine on New Year’s Day. The widely expected stoppage will not impact prices for consumers in the EU as some buyers have arranged alternative supply, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.
