BEIJING: China’s exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December and imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand.
Adding to policymakers’ worries, data on Monday also showed China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018, which could prompt President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their cantankerous trade dispute.
Softening demand in China is already being felt around the world, with slowing sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles prompting profit warnings from the likes of Apple and Jaguar Land Rover.
The dismal December trade readings suggest China’s economy may have lost more momentum late in the year than earlier thought, despite a slew of growth boosting measures in recent months ranging from higher infrastructure spending to tax cuts.
Some analysts had already speculated that Beijing may have to speed up and intensify its policy easing and stimulus measures this year after factory activity shrank in December.
Exports in December unexpectedly fell 4.4 percent from a year earlier, with demand in most of its major markets weakening. Imports also saw a shock drop, falling 7.6 percent in their biggest decline since July 2016.
“Export growth dropped more than anticipated as global growth softened and the drag from US tariffs intensified. Import growth also fell sharply in the face of cooling domestic demand. We expect both to remain weak in the coming quarters,” Capital Economics said in a note.
“Meanwhile, with policy easing unlikely to put a floor beneath domestic economic activity until the second half of this year, import growth is likely to remain subdued.”
China’s politically-sensitive surplus with the US rose 17.2 percent to $323.32 billion last year, the highest on record going back to 2006, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data.
That compared with about $275.81 billion in 2017.
China’s large trade surplus with the United States has long been a sore point with Washington, which has demanded Beijing should take steps to reduce it.
Washington imposed import tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods last year and has threatened further action if Beijing does not change its practices on issues ranging from industrial subsidies to intellectual property. China has retaliated with tariffs of its own.
However, Beijing’s export data had been surprisingly resilient to tariffs for much of 2018, possibly because companies ramped up shipments before broader and stiffer US duties went into effect.
China’s total global exports rose 9.9 percent in 2018, its strongest trade performance in seven years, while imports increased 15.8 percent last year.
But December’s gloomy data seemed to suggest the US front-loading effect has tapered off, and after several months of falling factory orders a further weakening in China’s exports is widely expected in coming months.
Many US warehouses are already packed to the rafters with Chinese goods that American retailers rushed in ahead of higher tariffs.
China exports to the US declined 3.5 percent in December while its imports from the US were down 35.8 percent for the month.
The higher tariffs China levied on US supplies also hit the country’s overall import growth. For all of 2018, soybean, the second largest imports from the US, fell for the first time since 2011.
Even if Washington and Beijing reach a trade deal in their current round of talks, it would be no panacea for China’s slowing economy, analysts say.
Sources told Reuters last week that Beijing is planning to lower its economic growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year after an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, the slowest pace in 28 years.
China’s exports shrink most in two years, raising risks for global economy
China’s exports shrink most in two years, raising risks for global economy
- China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018
- Many US warehouses are already packed to the rafters with Chinese goods that American retailers rushed in ahead of higher tariffs
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,811
- Parallel market Nomu gained 9.64 points, or 0.03%, to close at 29,477.35
- MSCI Tadawul Index also gained 4.49 points, or 0.30%, to close at 1,485.85
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 20.80 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 11,811.98.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.22 billion ($1.12 billion), as 115 of the stocks advanced and 116 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 9.64 points, or 0.03 percent, to close at 29,477.35, with 41 listed stocks advancing and 41 declining.
The MSCI Tadawul Index also gained 4.49 points, or 0.30 percent, to close at 1,485.85.
The best-performing stock of the day was The Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Co., whose share price rose 9.96 percent to SR20.98.
Other top performers included Saudi Reinsurance Co. and Thimar Development Holding Co., with their share prices increasing by 6.89 percent to SR38.80, and 6.04 percent to SR43.90, respectively.
The share prices of Saudi Cable Co. and The Co. for Cooperative Insurance also surged by 5.39 percent and 5.08 percent to SR97.70 and SR132.40, respectively.
The worst performer was Arriyadh Development Co., whose share price dropped by 5.27 percent to SR26.05.
Other notable decliners included Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund and Red Sea International Co., whose share prices fell by 3.68 percent to SR9.43, and 3.34 percent to SR66.50, respectively.
Zamil Industrial Investment Co. and The National Co. for Glass Industries also saw declines, with their share prices falling by 3.33 percent to SR26.15, and 3.14 percent to SR49.40, respectively.
On the announcements front, Amwaj International Co. disclosed its board of directors’ recommendation to distribute SR6 million in cash dividends to shareholders for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31.
According to a statement on Tadawul, the dividends will cover 6 million eligible shares, with a payout of SR1 per share, representing 10 percent of the share’s par value.
Amwaj International Co. concluded the trading session at SR42, marking an impressive 18.57 percent increase.
Arab Sea Information Systems Co. announced updates regarding its project with the Al-Madinah Region Development Authority for managed IT services.
The company was notified of the decision to cancel the competition due to procedural violations identified following a grievance by a competitor, according to a filing on Tadawul.
The grievance was filed before the award decision or in opposition to it and the company clarified that no costs are associated with the development.
Arab Sea Information Systems Co. closed the session at SR7.13, down 0.84 percent.
Saudi Arabia, UAE lead MENA deal boom with $71bn in activity: EY
- UAE and Saudi Arabia were the top investment destinations, accounting for 52% of the region’s total deal volume and 81% of deal value
- Sovereign wealth funds played a key role in driving M&A activity in the region
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and the UAE led Gulf region merger and acquisition activity, which increased 7 percent in value to $71 billion in the first nine months of the year.
According to EY’s MENA M&A Insights 9M 2024 report, the Middle East and North Africa region saw a total of 522 deals during the period, with deal volume rising 9 percent year on year.
The value growth was largely fueled by a surge in cross-border transactions and substantial investments from sovereign wealth funds, such as the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Mubadala, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
Brad Watson, EY MENA strategy and transactions leader, said: “Deal activity in the MENA region has seen a notable improvement this year, driven by strategic policy shifts, the liberalization of investment regulations and robust capital inflows from investors.”
He added: “With companies actively seeking opportunities to grow and diversify their operations, we have observed a surge in cross-border M&A volume and value.”
The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the top investment destinations, accounting for 52 percent of the region’s total deal volume and 81 percent of deal value, with 239 transactions worth $24.5 billion. Both nations continue to benefit from their favorable business environments and strategic economic policies.
“In particular, the UAE remained a favored investment destination during the first nine months of 2024 due to its business-friendly regulations and efficient legislative framework,” said Watson.
Sovereign wealth funds played a key role in driving M&A activity in the region, supporting national economic strategies. These funds were particularly active in sectors aligned with long-term diversification plans, such as technology, energy, and infrastructure.
Cross-border M&A deals dominated, representing 52 percent of the overall volume and 73 percent of the value, the report added.
However, domestic M&A activity also saw a notable increase, rising 44 percent year on year to $19.3 billion, driven by government-related entities making significant acquisitions in the oil and gas, metals and mining, and chemicals sectors.
Insurance and oil and gas emerged as the most attractive sectors, accounting for 34 percent of the total deal value. Technology and consumer products led domestic M&A by volume, with 78 deals representing 31 percent of activity.
Saudi Arabia recorded the region’s largest domestic transaction, with energy giant Aramco’s $8.9 billion acquisition of a 22.5 percent stake in Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. from Sumitomo Chemical.
The US remained a top target for MENA investors, with 32 deals valued at $18.3 billion. The US-UAE Business Council helped facilitate these partnerships, with prominent US firms collaborating with UAE public and private sectors on various initiatives.
Outbound and inbound deals
Outbound M&A was the largest contributor to deal value, with 147 transactions totaling $41.4 billion, led by insurance and real estate investments. The US and China represented 70 percent of outbound deal value.
Inbound deals also witnessed growth, rising 20 percent in volume and 47 percent in value to $10.4 billion. The US and UK were the leading contributors, driving activity in technology and professional services.
Mega deals
Ten of the region’s largest deals were concentrated in the Gulf Cooperation Council. These included Mubadala and partners’ $12.4 billion acquisition of Truist Insurance Holdings and an $8.3 billion investment in Chinese shopping mall operator Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group.
“Strengthening regional relationships with Asian and European economies, alongside existing ties with the US, enabled MENA countries to gain access to larger and growing markets,” said Watson.
As Gulf nations continue diversification strategies and prioritize digital transformation, sectors like technology, energy, and infrastructure are expected to drive further M&A growth. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s proactive policies and substantial sovereign wealth fund activity position the region as a global investment hotspot.
Craig Smith explores the media’s role in AI conversations
RIYADH: The media’s primary role is to translate complex ideas into digestible content for the public, said Craig Smith, host of the Eye on AI podcast and a former correspondent.
In a recent conversation with the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority’s GAIN podcast, Smith discussed the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence and the challenges media faces in accurately covering it amid both excitement and misinformation.
“You can put AI in a robot, but robotics is one field, and AI is another,” Smith explained, stressing the need for more precise portrayals of AI in the media.
As AI discussions have intensified in the past two years, particularly around its potential threats, Smith emphasized that these debates are meant to encourage further research into AI safety and prompt regulation. However, he noted that the popular press often misinterprets the purpose of these discussions, leading to sensational headlines that contribute to widespread fear.
“The purpose of that discussion is to generate more research around the safety of AI and to spur regulation to get the governments looking at what’s happening,” Smith said.
“But the media often misses this goal, resulting in alarmist narratives like AI will ‘kill us all,’ which detracts from the vital work of understanding and regulating this technology.”
While it’s easy to imagine a dystopian future for AI, Smith pointed out the far more nuanced reality. “We’re still working on getting large language models to be truthful and stop spouting nonsense,” he said, illustrating the long and challenging path ahead in developing reliable AI systems.
Reflecting on the rapid pace of change in the field, Smith highlighted the exciting progress in AI research, particularly since the introduction of the transformer algorithm in 2017.
“It was Ilya Sutskever at OpenAI who built a model around the transformer algorithm and scaled it up,” Smith noted, acknowledging the profound impact this algorithm has had on the development of large language models like ChatGPT and Claude.
Smith’s insights underscored the media’s crucial responsibility in accurately covering AI. By bridging the gap between complex technological advancements and public understanding, journalists have the power to foster informed discussions that will ultimately shape the future of AI in society.
Oman’s non-oil sector grows 4.2% in H1
- Non-oil sector contributed 13.5 billion Omani rials to GDP
- Oman’s banking sector saw positive growth in the first half of 2024
RIYADH: Oman’s non-oil sector experienced a 4.2 percent growth year on year in the first half of 2024, driven by the country’s strategic focus on economic diversification as outlined in its 10th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025).
In an interview with the state-run Oman News Agency, Nasser Al-Mawali, undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy, highlighted that this expansion marks significant progress in Oman’s efforts to reduce its dependency on oil revenues and build a more resilient economic base, in line with the objectives of Oman Vision 2040.
By mid-2024, the non-oil sector contributed 13.5 billion Omani rials ($35.1 billion) to the country’s gross domestic product, up from 13 billion rials during the same period in 2023. This sector now accounts for 72.2 percent of Oman’s GDP at constant prices.
Al-Mawali attributed the continued growth in non-oil activities to national programs aimed at accelerating economic diversification and expanding the productive capacity of the economy. The 10th Five-Year Plan, which forms the first phase of Oman Vision 2040, prioritizes increasing private sector participation, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, and broadening the country’s economic base.
According to Al-Mawali, strategic initiatives under this plan have reached a 90 percent implementation rate as of 2024, with major accomplishments in sectors such as green hydrogen, logistics, pharmaceuticals, and fisheries.
Foreign direct investment in Oman reached approximately 26 billion rials by mid-2024, up from about 17.8 billion rials at the end of 2021.
The country’s overall GDP, at constant prices, grew by 1.9 percent in the first half of 2024, rising from 18.4 billion rials to 18.7 billion rials compared to the same period in 2023. At current prices, GDP increased from 20.4 billion rials to nearly 21 billion rials.
While the non-oil sector posted strong growth, Oman’s oil sector experienced a 2.5 percent decline during the same period, primarily due to a 4 percent drop in crude oil production. On a more positive note, natural gas activities saw a 6.6 percent increase, providing a boost to the energy sector.
Al-Mawali emphasized that the rise in non-oil activities has helped provide a stable foundation for economic growth, buffering the country against fluctuations in global oil prices. Key projects, such as the Duqm Refinery and the development of the integrated economic zone in Al-Dhahirah in partnership with Saudi Arabia, have significantly bolstered Oman’s industrial capabilities and enhanced export potential.
The Duqm Refinery, inaugurated earlier in 2024, is expected to play a crucial role in increasing the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP.
Oman Vision 2040 targets an average annual GDP growth rate of 5 percent. So far, the country has achieved a growth rate of around 4.5 percent over the first three years of the 10th Five-Year Plan, indicating strong progress toward this goal.
The 10th Five-Year Plan also aims for an annual growth rate of 3.2 percent in the non-oil sector, with a long-term objective of increasing the sector’s contribution to GDP to 90 percent by 2040.
On a separate note, Oman’s banking sector saw positive growth in the first half of 2024, with total credit rising by 5 percent, reaching 32 billion rials by the end of September. Credit extended to the private sector increased by 4.2 percent, amounting to 26.7 billion Omani rials.
The majority of this credit was allocated to non-financial corporations, which accounted for 45.2 percent, followed by individual borrowers at 45 percent. Financial corporations received 6.3 percent, and other sectors made up the remaining 3.5 percent.
Total deposits in Oman’s banking sector grew by 13.7 percent, reaching 31.6 billion rials as of September. Private sector deposits saw a significant increase of 12.7 percent, totaling 20.7 billion Omani rials.
According to the Central Bank of Oman, individuals held the largest share of private sector deposits at 50.2 percent, followed by non-financial corporations at 29.5 percent, and financial corporations at 17.8 percent. Other sectors accounted for 2.5 percent of the total private sector deposits.
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy to grow 4.4% in 2025: PwC
- Kingdom’s non-oil economy expanded by 3.8% in first half of 2024
- Saudi Arabia is aligning its economic diversification efforts with sustainability goals
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2025 as the Kingdom continues its path toward economic diversification, according to a new analysis.
In its latest report, professional services firm PwC Middle East said Saudi Arabia is aligning its economic diversification efforts with sustainability goals, including achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
In the first half of the year, the Kingdom’s non-oil economy expanded by 3.8 percent, with the non-energy private sector seeing a 4.9 percent growth in the second quarter, it added.
Strengthening the non-oil private sector is a core objective of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, which aims to reduce the Kingdom’s dependence on oil revenues.
“Saudi Arabia’s transformational journey combines economic diversification with sustainable growth. The expansion of renewable energy, focus on advanced industries, and vision for a green future highlight the Kingdom’s commitment to its national goals and its role in the global energy transition,” said Riyadh Al-Najjar, Middle East chairman of the board and Saudi Arabia senior partner at PwC Middle East.
PwC said the Kingdom’s trade and hospitality sectors grew by 6.4 percent year on year in the first half of the year, while transport and communications, and finance and business services also posted positive growth of 4.8 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively.
The report noted Saudi Arabia’s progress in the electric vehicle sector, with significant investments in EV manufacturing.
The Kingdom is building a hub in King Abdullah Economic City to produce 150,000 vehicles by 2026 and 500,000 by 2030.
The Saudi government is expanding EV infrastructure through the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Co., a joint venture between the Public Investment Fund and Saudi Electricity Co., to install 5,000 fast chargers by 2030.
“Saudi Arabia’s drive toward a diversified and sustainable economy showcases its adaptability and resilience. These efforts reflect our nation’s commitment to a greener future and set a benchmark for global energy transition,” said Faisal Al-Sarraj, deputy country senior partner in Saudi Arabia and PwC Middle East consulting clients and markets leader.
In October, Moody’s projected that Saudi Arabia’s non-hydrocarbon real GDP would grow by 5 percent to 5.5 percent from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased government spending.
The International Monetary Fund also projected Saudi Arabia’s economy to grow by 4.6 percent in 2025, largely driven by the Kingdom’s diversification strategy and the expansion of the non-oil private sector.
