How defeated is Daesh?

Suspected Daesh fighters wait to be searched after leaving the terror group’s last holdout of Baghouz in Syria. (AFP)
Updated 13 March 2019
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How defeated is Daesh?

  • The end appears near, with US-backed forces surrounding the terror group in eastern Syria
  • However, experts are divided on whether it has run its course as an ideology

DUBAI: It is more than four years since Daesh terrorists overran large swathes of Syria and Iraq to declare a “caliphate” the size of Britain.
Experts say the terror group is now on the “brink of collapse” and territorially defeated, with US-backed forces in the process of taking its last pocket of land in the village of Baghouz, eastern Syria.
For weeks the world has been waiting for the “end of Daesh,” after US President Donald Trump predicted “great announcements” about Syria as the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) cornered the remaining militants.
The SDF had paused its months-long offensive many times to allow people to flee, but late on Sunday told the remaining Daesh fighters their time was up. On Monday, Agence France-Presse reported that the SDF had seized several positions from the terrorists still holed up in Baghouz.
But even when the last enclave falls, how defeated will Daesh really be?


David Reaboi, senior vice president for strategic operations at the Security Studies Group think tank, said the collapse of the Baghouz stronghold represents an almost total defeat.
“The (Daesh) phenomenon seems to have run its course, and disaffected Muslims from the West no longer view this particular Islamic State as a cause to join and from which to draw inspiration,” he said.
“The draw of a reconstituted caliphate has been central to historical and religious interpretations of Islam, so there was a fraught initial period in Daesh’s development when many were concerned that it would attract millions of adherents.” Thankfully, said Reaboi, a surge in followers failed to happen.
“This is because the obvious cruelty of the Islamic State in practice was off-putting to all but the most ideologically committed and otherwise disaffected.
“In subsequent years, several factors have led to the rise of national identities in the Middle East and in their European and American diasporas. Many young people, especially, now identify with their nation rather than with a pan-Islamic identity and are concentrating on supporting and ensuring positive change in their own societies,” he added.
“All this lessens a future caliphate temptation and ensures that the rise of another dead-end group such as Daesh is rejected by most young Muslims in the region.”
However, other analysts believe celebrations over the defeat of Daesh might be premature and should be coupled with caution, claiming terrorism cannot be “defeated,” only contained.
Columb Strack, a principal analyst at IHS Markit research group, warned of signs that the militants are regrouping to keep their foothold in the region.
“Islamic State has regrouped in Iraq since it was declared defeated by the Iraqi government in December 2017, and we are now seeing a resurgence in central Iraq,” said Strack. “We expect the same thing to happen in Syria.”

Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Arab News it was difficult to determine a definite end to the terror group. “No one can ever say with certainty that Daesh is permanently defeated: They have come back from the grave once already, having faced almost total defeat in Iraq in 2007-2010,” he said.
“(But) as a ground-holding caliphate, they have certainly been territorially defeated in the daytime and in terms of their control of cities.”
In a recent study on Daesh’s “Second Resurgence,” Brandon Wallace and Jennifer Cafarella, of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, said the jihadist group has already restructured its operations to return to a regional insurgency. “(Daesh) is finding new sources of revenue and rebuilding command-and-control over its scattered remnant forces in order to prepare for a future large-scale insurgency in both Iraq and Syria,” their report said.
Last month, the US Department of Defense also warned that Daesh in Syria could regroup if counter-terrorism measures were not put in place in the war-torn country.
Bruce Hoffman, a political analyst specializing in the study of terrorism and counterterrorism, agreed that caution needed to be applied.
“The White House’s own national strategy for counter-terrorism from October 2018 states that, notwithstanding the defeat of the caliphate, Daesh maintains eight official branches and more than two-dozen networks scattered across Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South-East Asia, so claims that it has been defeated for good are contradicted by the administration’s own statement about its counter-terrorism strategy.”
Hoffman, a professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, said that an ideology cannot be easily defeated, and “of course Daesh remains a long-term threat.”

“Only when it is incapable of resurrecting itself in any meaningful way, when its ideology no longer resonates, when recruits and money no longer are a factor in its longevity, and when lone wolves no longer heed its calls to violence, will it be permanently defeated,” Hoffman said.
Since June 29, 2014, Daesh has been linked to a string of deadly strikes in more than 24 countries.
The brutality of attacks claimed by the militants made global headlines: Paris in 2015, when teams of gun-wielding suicide bombers struck the French capital, killing at least 130 people and wounding 494 others; the 2016 assaults on a Brussels airport and subway station, which left more than 30 people dead and 270 wounded; the 2016 attacks at Turkey’s Istanbul Ataturk Airport, in which at least 44 people died and more than 230 were wounded.

One of the deadliest attacks by the group was in 2016, when a suicide car bomb in a Baghdad shopping district killed at least 292 people and injured another 200.
These atrocities, along with the execution of British aid worker David Haines in 2014, and the 2017 Manchester Arena suicide bombing which killed 22 people, caused world outrage.
Hoffman said there is “no doubt” that the brutality and far-ranging attacks claimed by Daesh in the past four years have been among the worst in living memory. “Even Al-Qaeda now seems ‘moderate’ in comparison and Al-Qaeda trades on its new status as self-described ‘moderate extremists’ to gather new longevity and, in some quarters, support.”
Although Daesh fighters still hold out in a tiny pocket of central Syria’s remote desert and have gone underground, their territorial rule is almost over.
Hoffman said the question now is what to do with hundreds of Daesh fighters captured in Syria. Last month, Trump urged “Britain, France, Germany and other European allies” to take back the militants captured by the US in Syria, but Hoffman believes the likelihood of that is low.
“None of these countries, including the US, knows what to do with the former fighters since in many cases evidence cannot be presented in open court, because it is either lacking or based on sensitive intelligence.”


In Tunisia, snails inch toward replacing red meat as people turn to cheaper protein

Updated 13 sec ago
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In Tunisia, snails inch toward replacing red meat as people turn to cheaper protein

Snails have been consumed in Tunisia for more than seven millenia
Low in fat and high in iron, calcium and magnesium, snails offer both nutritional value and economic relief

AKOUDA, Tunisia: In fields outside their hometown in central Tunisia, an increasing number of unemployed young men are seeking a new way to make a living, picking snails off of rocks and leaves and collecting them in large plastic bags to take to the local market to be sold.
More and more people, they say, are buying the shelled wanderers as the price of market staples remains high and out of reach for many families.
“They’re profitable, beneficial and quite in demand,” said Karim, a 29-year-old snail seller from the village of Akouda said.
Snails have been consumed in Tunisia for more than seven millenia, according to research published last year in the journal Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences. In today’s world considered mostly a bistro delicacy, they’re again gaining traction in Tunisia as a practical alternative to red meat — a protein-rich substitute that pairs perfectly with salt, spices, and bold seasonings.
The snails are a lifeline for some in Tunisia, where youth unemployment now hovers above 40 percent and inflation remains high, three years after spiking to its highest levels in decades. A lack of opportunity has fueled social discontent throughout the country and, increasingly, migration to Europe.
Low in fat and high in iron, calcium and magnesium, snails offer both nutritional value and economic relief. In a country where unemployment runs high and median wages remain low, they cost about half as much as beef per kilogram and often less when sold by the bowl.
“Snails are better for cooking than lamb. If lamb meat costs 60 dinars ($19.30), a bowl of snails is five dinars ($1.60),” a man named Mohammed said at the Akouda market.
As the price of meat and poultry continues to rise, more Tunisians are turning to affordable, alternative sources of protein. Beyond their economic appeal, these substitutes are also drawing interest for their environmental benefits. Scientists say they offer a more sustainable solution, producing far fewer carbon emissions and avoiding the deforestation linked to traditional livestock farming.
Wahiba Dridi, who serves snails at her restaurant in Tunis, cooks them in a traditional fashion with peppers and spices. She said they were popular throughout this year’s Ramadan, which ended last week. Though Tunisian Muslims traditionally eat red meat at the meals during which they break their daily fasts, a kilogram of snails costs less than 28 Tunisian dinars ($9) compared to beef, which costs 55 dinars per kilogram ($18).
“If people knew the value of snails they would eat them all year long,” Dridi said.

US sending Israel 20,000 assault rifles that Biden had delayed, say sources

Updated 04 April 2025
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US sending Israel 20,000 assault rifles that Biden had delayed, say sources

  • The rifle sale is a small transaction next to the billions of dollars worth of weapons that Washington supplies to Israel
  • The March 6 congressional notification said the US government had taken into account “political, military, economic, human rights, and arms control considerations“

WASHINGTON: The Trump administration moved forward with the sale of more than 20,000 US-made assault rifles to Israel last month, according to a document seen by Reuters and a source familiar with the matter, pushing ahead with a sale that the administration of former president Joe Biden had delayed over concerns they could be used by extremist Israeli settlers.
The State Department sent a notification to Congress on March 6 for the $24 million sale, saying the end user would be the Israeli National Police, according to the document.
The rifle sale is a small transaction next to the billions of dollars worth of weapons that Washington supplies to Israel. But it drew attention when the Biden administration delayed the sale over concerns that the weapons could end up in the hands of Israeli settlers, some of whom have carried out attacks on Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities accused of committing violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which has seen a rise in settler attacks on Palestinians.
On his first day in office on January 20, Trump issued an executive order rescinding US sanctions on Israeli settlers in a reversal of US policy. Since then, his administration has approved the sale of billions of dollars worth of weapons to Israel.
The March 6 congressional notification said the US government had taken into account “political, military, economic, human rights, and arms control considerations.”
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment when asked if the administration sought assurances from Israel on the use of the weapons.

CLOSE TIES
Since a 1967 Middle East war, Israel has occupied the West Bank, which Palestinians want as the core of an independent state, and has built settlements that most countries deem illegal. Israel disputes this, citing historical and biblical ties to the land.
Settler violence had been on the rise prior to the eruption of the Gaza war, and has worsened since the conflict began over a year ago.
Trump has forged close ties to Netanyahu, pledging to back Israel in its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His administration has in some cases pushed ahead with Israel arms sales despite requests from Democratic lawmakers that the sales be paused until they received more information.
The US Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly rejected a bid to block $8.8 billion in arms sales to Israel over human rights concerns, voting 82-15 and 83-15 to reject two resolutions of disapproval over sales of massive bombs and other offensive military equipment.
The resolutions were offered by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
The rifle sale had been put on hold after Democratic lawmakers objected and sought information on how Israel was going to use them. The congressional committees eventually cleared the sale but the Biden administration kept the hold in place.
The latest episode in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict began with a Hamas attack on Israeli communities on October 7, 2023 with gunmen killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s campaign has so far killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities say.
Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, oversees the Israeli police force. The Times of Israel newspaper in November 2023 reported that his ministry has put “a heavy emphasis on arming civilian security squads” in the aftermath of October 7 attacks.


Medecins Sans Frontieres ‘appalled’ by second staff member killed in Gaza within weeks

Updated 04 April 2025
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Medecins Sans Frontieres ‘appalled’ by second staff member killed in Gaza within weeks

  • Hussam Al Loulou died in the strike on Apr. 1 in central Gaza

GENEVA: Global medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said on Friday it was appalled and saddened by the killing of one of its staff by an air strike in Gaza, the second within two weeks.


Hussam Al Loulou died in the strike on Apr. 1 in central Gaza, alongside his wife and 28-year-old daughter, the organization said.


Uganda president holds talks with South Sudanese leaders to try to avoid civil war

Updated 04 April 2025
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Uganda president holds talks with South Sudanese leaders to try to avoid civil war

  • Goc said that the country’s leadership had assured Museveni of its commitment to implement the peace agreement
  • Uganda last month deployed troops to South Sudan to support the government

NAIROBI: Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni was expected to meet South Sudanese officials on the second day of his trip to the capital, Juba, as the UN has expressed concern of a renewed civil war after the main opposition leader was put under house arrest.
Museveni, who is among the guarantors of a 2018 peace agreement that ended a five-year civil war, held closed-door discussions with President Salva Kiir on Thursday.
South Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdallah Goc said that the country’s leadership had assured Museveni of its commitment to implement the peace agreement.
South Sudan’s political landscape remains fragile and recent violence between government troops and armed groups allied to the opposition have escalated tension.
Uganda last month deployed troops to South Sudan to support the government, but it was criticized by South Sudan’s main opposition party SPLM-IO, whose leader Riek Machar is under house arrest on charges of incitement.
In early March, the armed group loyal to Machar attacked a UN helicopter that was on a mission to evacuate government troops from the restive northern Upper Nile State.
Western countries including Germany and Norway have temporarily closed their embassies in Juba while the USand the UK have reduced embassy staff.


Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, foreign minister says

Updated 04 April 2025
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Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, foreign minister says

  • Fidan said Israel’s actions in Syria were paving the way for future regional instability
  • If the new administration in Damascus wants to have “certain understandings” with Israel, then that is their own business, he added

BRUSSELS: Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria after repeated Israeli attacks on military sites there undermined the new government’s ability to deter threats, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters on Friday.
In an interview on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Fidan said Israel’s actions in Syria — where the administration of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa is a close Turkish ally — were paving the way for future regional instability.
If the new administration in Damascus wants to have “certain understandings” with Israel, which like Turkiye is a neighbor of Syria, then that is their own business, he added.
NATO member Turkiye has fiercely criticized Israel over its attacks on Gaza since 2023, saying they amount to a genocide against the Palestinians, and has applied to join a case at the World Court against Israel while also halting all trade.
Israel denies the genocide accusations.
The animosity between the regional powers has spilled over into Syria, with Israeli forces striking Syria for weeks since a new administration took control in Damascus. Turkiye has called the Israeli strikes an encroachment on Syrian territories, while Israel has said it would not allow any hostile forces in Syria.
Asked about US President Donald Trump’s threats of military strikes against Iran, Fidan said diplomacy was needed to resolve the dispute and that Ankara did not want to see any attack taking place against its neighbor Iran.