BEIRUT: Now the Daesh group's "caliphate" has fallen, the hard-won limited autonomy of Syria's Kurds will be left in peril if their key US ally goes ahead with its announced pullout.
On Saturday, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces announced the end of the proto-state that the Sunni Arab extremist group declared across large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq in 2014.
The Kurds have largely stayed out of Syria's eight-year civil war, instead building their own institutions in a third of the country under their control.
But a planned US military pullout has left them exposed to an attack by Turkey and in need of protection from Damascus, in a massive blow to their dreams of self-rule.
"The Kurds have been caught between a Syrian rock and a Turkish hard place," Syria expert Fabrice Balanche said.
Kurdish fighters have spearheaded the fight against Daesh since late 2014, but neighboring Turkey views them as "terrorists".
The presence of American troops in areas held by Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had acted as a shield against any Turkish offensive.
But US President Donald Trump in December shocked Washington's allies by announcing a full withdrawal of all 2,000 US troops from Syria as Daesh had been "beaten".
"The Kurds are facing an uncertain future. The most urgent threat appears to be from Turkey," analyst Mutlu Civiroglu said.
After his announcement, Trump attempted to ease tensions by speaking of a 30-kilometre "safe zone" on the Syrian side of the border.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said his country would establish the "security zone" itself if it took too long to implement.
The Kurds have rejected any Turkish implementation, especially since any such buffer would include their major cities.
They are demanding instead the deployment of an international observer force.
"Kobane, Tal Abyad, Darbasiya, Qamishli, Dehik, Derbassiye -- most of the Kurdish cities are on the border line," Civiroglu said.
Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies have led two previous offensives inside Syria, most recently seizing the northwestern enclave of Afrin from the Kurds last year.
Syria's civil war has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.
It has since spiraled into a complex conflict, with rebel backer Turkey and regime ally Russia emerging as key powerbrokers.
Beyond American approval, Civiroglu said Turkey would likely need a green light from Russia before any Turkish offensive in Syria.
"Russia's position is going to be very important, because Russia has a strong power over Turkey," he said.
President Bashar al-Assad's regime now controls two-thirds of Syria thanks to Russian military backing since 2015, and its seems determined to also return to oil-rich northeastern Syria.
To protect themselves, the Kurds have dispatched delegations to Washington and Moscow.
And in ongoing talks, they have scrambled to mend ties with Damascus.
After decades of marginalization, the Kurds have developed their own political system in northeast Syria -- holding elections, collecting taxes and running schools teaching the Kurdish language.
"In a war-torn country, the Kurdish system is working fine," Civiroglu said.
"The Kurds want this to be recognized."
They want "Kurdish education to be offered officially", he said, after decades of an effective ban on their mother tongue.
But talks so far have failed to bear fruit, and Balanche warns the Kurds are in a weak position.
"The regime is demanding an unconditional surrender. Damascus does not want to let them retain any autonomy," he said.
Syrian Defense Minister Ali Abdullah Ayoub said Monday that the government would recapture all areas held by the SDF "in one of two ways: a reconciliation agreement or... by force".
Although the end of the Daesh "caliphate" has been declared, Daesh is still present in eastern Syria's vast Badia desert.
The US Defense Department has warned that without sustained pressure on the extremists, they could resurge in Syria within months.
In the end, the future of the Kurds mainly depends on the United States, says analyst Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security.
"Every other actor in Syria cannot make a move until there is greater clarity on what the United States ultimately decides to do," he said.
And after any troop pullout, the United States could still stay on with a paramilitary force, he added.
"The best hope for the SDF is for the Americans and the coalition to stick it out in Syria for the long haul."
The White House has said that around 200 American "peace-keeping" soldiers would remain in northern Syria indefinitely.
Acting Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan said he would be discussing with NATO partners the potential to establish an "observer force" in the area.
Syria Kurd autonomy under threat after Daesh ‘caliphate’ falls
Syria Kurd autonomy under threat after Daesh ‘caliphate’ falls
- The Kurdish forces helped in the fight against Daesh
- The Kurds in the area are demanding for an international observer force
Hundreds of thousands flee as Israel seizes Rafah in new Gaza ‘security zone’
- Airstrike kills at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building
GAZA: Hundreds of thousands of fleeing Gazans sought shelter on Thursday in one of the biggest mass displacements of the war, as Israeli forces advanced into the ruins of the city of Rafah, part of a newly announced “security zone” they intend to seize.
A day after declaring their intention to capture large swaths of the crowded enclave, Israeli forces pushed into the city on Gaza’s southern edge, which had served as a last refuge for people fleeing other areas for much of the war.
Gaza’s Health Ministry reported at least 97 people killed in Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours, including at least 20 killed in an airstrike around dawn in Shejaia, a suburb of Gaza City in the north.
FASTFACT
The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.
Later on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike killed at least 27 Palestinians, including women and children, inside a school building that served as a shelter for displaced families in Gaza City, local health authorities said.
The Israeli military claimed the attack hit key Palestinian “terrorists.”
Medics said three missiles slammed into the Dar Al-Arqam school building in Tuffah neighborhood in Gaza City, and the Israeli military said it struck a command center that militants had used to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and army troops.
Rafah “is gone, it is being wiped out,” a father of seven among the hundreds of thousands who had fled from Rafah to neighboring Khan Younis, said via a chat app.
“They are knocking down what is left standing of houses and property,” said the man.
The assault to capture Rafah is a significant escalation in the war, which Israel restarted last month after effectively abandoning a ceasefire in place since January.
In Shejaia in the north, one of the districts where Israel has ordered the population to leave, hundreds of residents streamed out on Thursday, some carrying their belongings as they walked, others on donkey carts and bikes or in vans.
“I want to die. Let them kill us and free us from this life. We’re not living, we’re dead,” said Umm Aaed Bardaa.
In Khan Younis, where a strike killed several people, Adel Abu Fakher was checking the damage to his tent: “There’s nothing left for us. We’re being killed while asleep,” he said.
Israel has not spelled out its long-term aims for the security zone its troops are now seizing.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said troops were taking an area he called the “Morag Axis,” a reference to an abandoned former Israeli settlement between Rafah and Khan Younis.
Gazans who had returned to homes in the ruins during the ceasefire have now been ordered to flee communities on the northern and southern edges of the strip.
They fear Israel intends to depopulate those areas indefinitely, leaving many hundreds of thousands of people permanently homeless while Israel seizes some of Gaza’s last agricultural land and critical water infrastructure.
Since the first phase of the ceasefire expired at the start of March with no agreement to prolong it, Israel has imposed a total blockade on all goods for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, recreating what international organizations call a humanitarian catastrophe.
Israel’s military said on Thursday it was investigating the deaths of 15 Palestinian aid workers found buried in a shallow grave in March near Red Crescent vehicles, an incident that caused global alarm.
The military said troops fired on the cars, believing they carried fighters.
Israel’s stated goal since the start of the war has been the destruction of the Hamas militant group, which ran Gaza for nearly two decades.
But with no effort made to establish an alternative administration, Hamas returned to control during the ceasefire.
Fighters still hold 59 dead and living hostages Israel says must be handed over to extend the truce temporarily; Hamas says it will free them only under a deal that permanently ends the war.
Israeli leaders say they have been encouraged by signs of protest in Gaza against Hamas, with hundreds of people demonstrating in north Gaza’s Beit Lahiya on Wednesday. Hamas calls the protesters collaborators and says Israel is behind them.
The war began with an attack on Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023 with gunmen taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s campaign has so far killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities say.
Rafah residents said most of the local population had followed Israel’s order to leave as Israeli strikes toppled buildings there.
However, a strike on the main road between Khan Younis and Rafah stopped most movement between the cities.
The movement of people and traffic along the western coastal road near Morag was also limited by bombardment.
“Others stayed because they don’t know where to go, or got fed up of being displaced several times. We are afraid they might be killed or at best detained,” said Basem, a resident of Rafah who declined to give a second name.
Lebanese leaders reach consensus on border demarcation to present to US envoy
- President Aoun tells top military officers: Lebanon’s interests are above everything else
- Joseph Aoun: It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects
BEIRUT: Lebanese leaders have reached a unified position on border demarcation to present to Morgan Ortagus, the US envoy, who is scheduled to arrive in Beirut before the end of the week.
President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, agreed that there “will be no negotiations with the Israeli side regarding (a) prisoner swap or withdrawal from the Lebanese hills still occupied by the Israeli Army,” a source in the government told Arab News on Thursday.
“However, Lebanon is open to discussing disputed land border points,” the source added.
“Regardless of the US envoy’s proposals, the Lebanese stance remains unchanged,” said the source, who clarified that the Lebanese Army “is fulfilling its duties by being deployed south of the Litani River and confiscating weapons in the border area, as acknowledged by the US side overseeing the ceasefire monitoring committee and the UNIFIL forces.”
The source said that the military had made significant progress on the issue, destroying weapons and ammunition seized from Hezbollah sites.
Aoun told top security officials on Thursday that Lebanon’s interests comes above anything else.
He was speaking during a visit to the leadership of the Internal Security Forces and the General Security Directorate.
“We have a great opportunity to seize at all levels, and we must show the people that we are mature enough to build the state and that we will build it,” he said.
The president called on security bodies to “remain unaffiliated with anyone, serve only Lebanon’s interests, and enforce the law,” noting that “the world is ready to help us, but we must first help ourselves.”
Aoun stated: “Lebanon’s interest comes above anything else. It is the state that protects Lebanon, not its sects. Parties and sects prioritize their interests, whereas your duty is to serve Lebanon.
“You must reject any demands or interference that might harm the nation’s interests and prompt people to respect the law, keeping in mind that no request outside the law will be tolerated.”
Also on Thursday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi, the highest Maronite religious authority in Lebanon, said the time “has come to unify weapons in Lebanon, as stipulated in the Taif Agreement.”
He also told the Lebanese Editors Syndicate that the military “needs strengthening and support from other nations, but the solution now is diplomatic, as we are incapable of engaging in war, and no one can confront Israel.
“What has the resistance achieved with all its weapons against the Israeli war machine,” he asked, adding “now is not the time for normalization with Israel, as there are other issues that must be addressed first, such as border demarcation and disarmament.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would not withdraw from the five positions it controls in Lebanon.
He was speaking during a visit to an Israeli military site in southern Lebanon — one of the five hills still occupied since the ceasefire declaration in November.
At the site, which is near the Israeli settlement of Margaliot, Katz stated Israel’s presence at the five locations will be determined not by time but by the situation on the ground.
“Only if Hezbollah disarms and withdraws from the border can we discuss the withdrawal of the Israeli Army from these positions, and this matter is being coordinated with the Americans,” he said.
Katz anticipated “an increase in activity among Palestinian organizations, including Hamas, in Lebanon and Syria.”
He stated: “We are working to prevent the arming of Hezbollah and Palestinian organizations. The challenge will begin and intensify.”
Katz claimed that Hezbollah “is not a protector of Lebanon.”
He added: “The Iranians now realize that it is no longer capable of defending them.”
Elsewhere, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle on the main road between Bint Jbeil and Yaroun in the border area.
The drone struck the vehicle from behind, resulting in two injuries, the Lebanese Ministry of Health said.
The Israeli military conducted airstrikes around Naqoura and one strike in the town’s center, targeting pre-fabricated homes as replacements for the destroyed houses and facilities.
These pre-fabricated facilities were being used to meet citizens’ needs, serving as a substitute for the municipal building, destroyed by Israel following the ceasefire, said Naqoura Mayor Abbas Awada.
He highlighted that recent aggression occurring in proximity to UNIFIL headquarters falls “under the jurisdiction of the five-member ceasefire monitoring committee and UNIFIL forces.”
Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Authority reported that Israeli strikes destroyed a “newly established civil defense center and damaged ambulances and firefighting vehicles.”
Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces have taken proactive measures, with military units removing “engineering obstacles placed by Israeli forces inside Lebanese territory” near Al-Labouna in the Tyre region.
The military also closed an unauthorized dirt road created by Israeli units in the same area.
In an official statement, the Lebanese Army Command affirmed its ongoing commitment to “addressing Israeli violations through close coordination with the ceasefire monitoring mechanism and UNIFIL.”
The Army Command condemned Israel’s “persistent violations of Lebanese sovereignty and targeting of civilians across multiple regions.”
In another development, UNIFIL Western Sector Commander Gen. Nicola Mandolisi conducted his first meeting with Khirbet Selem Mayor Mohammed Rahhal.
Their joint statement highlighted “UNIFIL’s commitment to facilitating the safe return of displaced residents and supporting Lebanese military operations through strategic partnerships with the Fifth Brigade and the Second and Fifth Rapid Intervention Regiments, key components in regional stabilization efforts.”
South Sudan clashes kill 30: local official
- The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week
- Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups
JUBA: At least 30 people were killed when a northern South Sudanese town was briefly overrun by an armed youth group, a local official said Thursday, following a cattle raid.
Clashes involving pastoralists and settled farming communities are common in the world’s youngest country, but this incident comes as tensions rise over South Sudan’s fragile political situation.
The attack in northern Ruweng Administrative Area began earlier in the week when a group of armed youth stole lambs before they were scared off by security forces, said Simon Chol Mialith, the local Minister of Information.
The following day, he told AFP, the group returned in greater numbers and attacked Abiemnom, and although “the youth and the security forces tried to defend the town, they were overrun by the Mayom armed youth.”
On Wednesday the South Sudan People’s Defense Force (SSPDF) drove the group from the settlement, Mialith said, where calm has now been restored.
“The number has risen to 30 people confirmed dead and over 40 persons wounded,” he said, without giving further details.
Local media reported that some of those killed were members of the armed groups, but AFP was unable to confirm this.
The incident comes as forces allied to President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar clash across the country, sparking regional concern and threatening a fragile peace deal in 2018 that ended a five-year civil war.
South Sudan has been bedevilled by instability and insecurity since independence in 2011, and despite its natural oil resources remains deeply impoverished.
Palestinian Authority calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu
- The governing body of the International Criminal Court voiced regret and concern over Hungary’s announcement that it was leaving the court, saying any departure harmed a “shared quest for justice”
RAMALLAH: The Palestinian Authority has urged Hungary to arrest visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under an International Criminal Court warrant over alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip.
“The ministry calls on the Hungarian government ... to comply with the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant by immediately handing Netanyahu over to bring him to justice,” the Ramallah-based Foreign Affairs Ministry said in a statement hours after Hungary announced it would withdraw from the ICC.
The governing body of the International Criminal Court voiced regret and concern over Hungary’s announcement that it was leaving the court, saying any departure harmed a “shared quest for justice.”
“When a state party withdraws from the Rome Statute (that established the ICC), it clouds our shared quest for justice and weakens our resolve to fight impunity,” the presidency of the Assembly of State Parties said in a statement.
The court is “at the center of the global commitment to accountability,” and the international community should “support it without reservation,” the statement added.
“Justice requires our unity.”
The governing body also extended an olive branch to Hungary, which earlier Thursday announced it was starting the one-year process to withdraw from the ICC.
Every court member “has the right to voice its concerns before the Assembly,” it said.
“The presidency strongly encourages Hungary to have a meaningful discussion on this issue.”
In the meantime, the body urged Hungary to “continue to be a resolute party to the Rome Statute.”
Budapest said it was quitting the ICC just as Prime Minister Viktor Orban hosted Netanyahu.
Israeli military says it holds special probe into Gaza aid worker deaths
- The military’s Southern Command had transferred the investigation to a general staff mechanism outside the chain of command
- Israel has not directly addressed the accusation that its forces deliberately killed health workers
JERUSALEM: The Israeli military is conducting an investigation into an incident in Gaza in which a number of emergency and aid workers were killed, a military spokesperson said on Thursday, rejecting a description of the incident as an “execution.”
Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said the military’s Southern Command had transferred the investigation to a general staff mechanism outside the chain of command to establish what happened and “hold accountable people if we need to.”
Last month, the bodies of 15 workers from the Red Crescent, Palestinian Civil Defense and United Nations were found buried in a shallow grave at the southern end of the Gaza Strip, close to their wrecked vehicles.
Israel has not directly addressed the accusation that its forces deliberately killed health workers but the military has described an incident on March 23, when it said its troops fired on vehicles bearing Red Crescent markings near Rafah, killing nine members of militant groups.
“Our initial investigation found that there were terrorists in these cars, using those Red Crescent cars,” Shoshani told a briefing with journalists.
Asked how the troops knew that there were militants in the cars, he said: “It is based on different ways of intelligence and also based on the information gathered on the ground at the time of the event.”
He said troops later also fired on other unmarked vehicles that approached without emergency lights or prior coordination.
“I can’t go into the reasoning and what they did because this is under investigation,” Shoshani said. “We will investigate this incident and once we have the answers, we’ll put them out clearly and communicate everything we know and everything we’ve found,” he said.
The Palestinian Red Crescent, which said eight of its staff had been killed in the incident, said Israel had targeted the group and called for those responsible to be held accountable.
The medical team had been sent into Rafah as Israeli forces were advancing into the area after resuming operations in Gaza on March 18, following a two month-long truce, UN officials have said.
When the bodies were found, they were still in their medical uniforms and wearing gloves.
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher said the people had been killed by Israeli forces and demanded “answers and justice.”
Shoshani denied reports that some bodies in the grave had been found with hands tied, and rejected the term “execution” to describe what happened during what he called “an operational event.”
“Not an execution,” he said.
