ANKARA: A deal to buy Russian missiles has left Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan balancing NATO ally the United States and new regional partner Russia as he risks fallout from both Washington and Moscow.
Turkey’s already soured relations with the United States could be significantly damaged with possible US sanctions if Ankara pushes ahead with the deal for the sophisticated S-400 missile defense system.
US officials have repeatedly warned the deal could threaten Turkey’s participation in the F-35 stealth fighter jet program.
But should Ankara renege on the missile purchase, Erdogan risks alienating Russia at a time when Moscow has become a pragmatic partner in Turkey’s strategy in Syria.
At risk would be a deal between Russia and Turkey to stop a Syrian regime offensive in a province controlled by jihadists.
Moscow would also likely hit back economically, experts say, perhaps by stopping millions of Russian tourists coming to Turkey.
Sanctions or fallout from either could not come at a worse time with Turkey’s economy in recession for the first time since 2009 following a currency crisis last year.
US sanctions that helped trigger that turmoil showed just how exposed Turkey’s economy can be.
US Department of Defense spokesman Charlie Summers recently warned Ankara faced “grave consequences” if Turkey took the S-400s, a serious threat according to analysts.
“The US government and Congress are not making idle threats when they warn Turkey not to proceed with the purchase of Russian S-400s,” Amanda Sloat, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said.
“There are serious concerns in Washington as well as Europe about a NATO ally purchasing Russian defense equipment.”
The Americans fear technology from the S-400s would be able to gather data from NATO aircraft and allow Russians to access this information.
“There is the NATO set of issues of buying material that won’t be NATO interoperable and the effect that will have on alliance interoperability,” a senior US official said.
Erdogan says the S-400s are needed to protect Turkey’s borders, and said he turned to Russian equipment because no acceptable US missile deal was available at the time.
The first S-400 delivery is expected in July.
“For us to turn back from the deal is out of the question,” Erdogan said recently.
That could risk Ankara being sanctioned by Washington under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), experts say.
Under CAATSA, any entity doing business with Russia’s state and private defense and intelligence sectors risks sanctions.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last year Turkey would “absolutely respond” to any US sanctions.
US officials have repeatedly said Turkey’s involvement in the F-35 stealth fighter program should be curtailed if the Russia deal goes ahead.
Turkey plans to buy 100 F-35s and some Turkish pilots have already started training with counterparts in the US.
US General Curtis Scaparrotti this month reiterated that Washington should block delivery of the F-35s if Ankara completes the Russia agreement.
Turkey has invested over $1 billion in the F-35 program and any US decision to prevent the fighters reaching Turkey would be a breach of contract, but there are indications that Washington would be prepared to repay Ankara.
Hoping to supply an alternative to the S-400, Washington approved the sale of Patriot missiles to Ankara last year.
Turkey has no air defense system though NATO allies temporarily deployed Patriots to help defend the country from attack by Syrian jets in 2013.
Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on Tuesday said Turkey was “absolutely” wanted in the F-35 program but added: “We need Turkey to buy the Patriot.”
“We’re doing our best to give them as real and as credible and as urgent an alternative as possible,” the senior US official, who requested anonymity, said.
Cavusoglu on March 1 said Patriot negotiations had begun after a “positive” response.
But time is short. The formal offer for the Patriot expires at the end of March, according to media reports.
US-Turkey ties are already at a low point with tensions over US support for a Syrian Kurdish militia viewed as terrorists by Ankara, and Washington’s failure to extradite a Muslim preacher accused by Turkey of ordering a 2016 coup attempt.
Last summer, ties between the NATO allies hit another low with tit-for-tat sanctions and the US doubling steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey over the case of a jailed American pastor.
That battered Turkey’s lira and the pastor was freed in October.
The missile row is “unlikely to cause a permanent rupture,” said Sloat, a former US State Department official. “It will significantly strain already challenged relations and raise further questions in Washington about whether Ankara is a reliable ally.”
Part of the concern is the burgeoning relationship between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the Turkish leader expected in Russia in April.
While Turkish and US officials are talking privately, top-level discussions will likely wait until after Turkish local elections on Sunday.
Hande Firat, a Hurriyet daily columnist, said Cavusoglu will meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a US trip in April and would likely discuss the S-400 dispute.
“How this will develop, we will see after the elections,” she wrote on Tuesday. “But discussions between US President (Donald) Trump and President Erdogan will be key.”
Erdogan juggles Moscow, Washington over Russia missile deal
Erdogan juggles Moscow, Washington over Russia missile deal
- Turkey’s already soured relations with the US could be significantly damaged with possible US sanctions if it pushes ahead with a controversial arms missile deal
- US officials have repeatedly warned the deal could threaten Turkey’s participation in the F-35 stealth fighter jet program
United Nations warily awaits Donald Trump’s return to power
Concerns at UN about Washington’s budget contributions
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Trump expected to withdraw from climate deal again
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UN has done ‘prudent planning’ ahead of Trump return
GENEVA: The United Nations has been planning for the possible return of Donald Trump and the cuts to US funding and engagement with world body that are likely to come with his second term as president.
There was a sense of “déjà vu and some trepidation” at the 193-member world body, said one senior Asian diplomat, as Republican Trump won Tuesday’s US election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
“There is also some hope that a transactional administration will engage the UN on some areas even if it were to defund some dossiers. After all, what bigger and better global stage is there than the United Nations?” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A US retreat at the UN could open the door for China, which has been building its influence in global diplomacy.
Trump has offered few specifics about foreign policy in his second term but supporters say the force of his personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will. He has vowed to solve the war in Ukraine and is expected to give strong support to Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Among the top concerns at the UN are whether the United States will decide to contribute less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the world Heath Organization and the Paris climate agreement.
US funding is the immediate worry. Washington is the UN’s largest contributor — with China second — accounting for 22 percent of the core UN budget and 27 percent of the peacekeeping budget.
A country can be up to two years in arrears before facing the possible repercussion of losing its General Assembly vote.
’EXTREMELY HARD’
Trump came to power last time proposing to cut about a third off US diplomacy and aid budgets, which included steep reductions in funding for UN peacekeeping and international organizations. But Congress, which sets the federal US government budget, pushed back on Trump’s proposal.
A UN spokesperson said at the time the proposed cuts would have made it impossible to continue all essential work.
“The UN secretariat has known that they could face a Trump comeback all year. There has been prudent planning behind the scenes on how to manage potential US budget cuts,” said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group.
“So (UN Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres and his team are not totally unprepared, but they know the next year will be extremely hard,” he said.
Trump’s team did not immediately respond to a query about his policy toward the UN after he takes office in January.
During his first term, Trump complained that the US was shouldering an unfair burden of the cost of the UN and pushed for reforms. Washington is traditionally slow to pay and when Trump left office in 2021 the US was in arrears about $600 million for the core budget and $2 billion for peacekeeping.
According to UN figures, President Joe Biden’s administration currently owes $995 million for the core UN budget and $862 million for the peacekeeping budget.
“I don’t want to pre-empt or speak about policies that may or may not happen, but we work with member states in the way we’ve always worked with member states,” Guterres’ spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday.
In 2026, the UN Security Council will choose Guterres’ successor, a decision in which the Trump administration will hold a veto power.
’GREAT NEWS FOR CHINA’
During Trump’s first term, he was critical of the United Nations and wary of multilateralism. He announced plans to quit the World Health Organization, and pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council, the UN cultural agency UNESCO, a global climate change accord and the Iran nuclear deal.
When Biden succeeded him in 2021, he rescinded the US decision to withdraw from the WHO and returned the US to UNESCO and the climate agreement. Trump’s campaign has said he would quit the climate deal again if he won office.
“It will survive. But, of course, it will probably survive severely undermined,” Guterres told Reuters in September of a second withdrawal from the climate pact by Trump.
Ahead of the US election, a senior European diplomat said a Trump win would be “great news for China,” recalling that during Trump’s first term “the Chinese influence in the UN increased a lot because it was an open bar for the Chinese.”
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Trump again cuts UN funding and withdraws from international pacts “it will just give China the opportunity to present itself as the supporter number one of multilateralism.”
US funding for some other UN agencies is also in question. One of the first moves by the Trump administration in 2017 was to cut funding for UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the international body’s agency focused on family planning as well as maternal and child health in more than 150 countries.
Trump’s administration said UNFPA “supports ... a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization.” The UN said that was an inaccurate perception. Biden restored US funding for UNFPA.
If Trump again cuts funding, UNFPA warned that “women will lose lifesaving services in some of the world’s most devastating crises” in places like Afghanistan, Sudan and Ukraine.
Under Trump’s first presidency, the US also opposed long-agreed international language on women’s sexual and reproductive rights and health in UN resolutions over concern that it would advance abortion rights.
A senior African diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up the impending return of Trump for multilateralism and the United Nations: “The heavens help us.”
At least 25 wounded as apartment building hit by Russian missile
- 12-story residential building was struck by a bomb that partially destroyed the first and third floors
- A barrage of drones also struck Odesa and its suburbs in south of the country, wounding at least two people
KYIV: At least 25 people were wounded in an overnight Russian strike on an apartment block in Kharkiv, the mayor of Ukraine’s second city said Friday.
The 12-story residential building was struck by a bomb that partially destroyed the first and third floors, Mayor Igor Terekhov wrote on Telegram.
“The number of injured keeps increasing. As of now, there are 25 of them,” he added.
Rescue efforts were under way for inhabitants trapped on the third floor.
The Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, accused Russia of “deliberately hitting an apartment block.”
“The Russians are also attacking Kyiv with missiles,” he added.
Separately, Kyiv’s military office said that anti-missile air defenses were operating in the capital.
A barrage of drones also struck Odesa and its suburbs in the south of the country, wounding at least two people, the region’s governor Oleg Kiper said.
Kyiv was targeted on Thursday by another “massive” Russian drone attack that wounded two people, damaged buildings and sparked fires in several districts, Ukrainian authorities said.
Russia has systematically targeted the capital with drone and missile barrages since the first day of its invasion launched nearly three years ago on February 24, 2022.
Ukrainian authorities have been seeking air defense systems from their allies to fend off Russian aerial attacks.
At least 2 dead and 12 missing after a fishing boat sinks off South Korea’s Jeju island
- Nearby fishing vessels managed to pull 15 crew members out of the water, but two of them were later pronounced dead
- 27 crew members were on the 129-tonne boat, which left Jeju’s Seogwipo port late Thursday to catch mackerel
SEOUL: A fishing boat capsized and sank off the coast of South Korea’s Jeju island Friday, leaving at least two people dead and 12 others unaccounted for, coast guard officials said.
Nearby fishing vessels managed to pull 15 crew members out of the water, but two of them were later pronounced dead after being brought to shore. The other 13 did not sustain life-threatening injuries, said Kim Han-na, an official at Jeju’s coast guard.
She said 27 crew members – 16 South Korean nationals and 11 foreigners – were on the 129-tonne boat, which left Jeju’s Seogwipo port late Thursday to catch mackerel. The coast guard received a distress signal at around 4:30 a.m. Friday from a nearby fishing vessel that conducted rescue efforts as the boat sank 24 kilometers northwest of the island.
At least 11 vessels and nine aircraft from South Korea’s coast guard, police, fire service and military were deployed as of Friday morning to search for survivors. They were being assisted by 13 civilian vessels.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for officials to mobilize all available resources to find and rescue the missing crew members, his office said.
South Korea holds missile drill after North Korea launches
- The nuclear-armed North had test-fired what it said was its most advanced and powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile
- Hyunmoo surface-to-surface short-range missile was sent into the West Sea in the exercise
SEOUL: South Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea in a show of force after North Korea’s recent salvo of missile launches, Seoul said Friday.
The nuclear-armed North had test-fired what it said was its most advanced and powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as well as a number of short-range ballistic missiles in separate drills over the last two weeks.
South Korea’s military command said its live-fire exercise was aimed at demonstrating its “strong resolve to firmly respond to any North Korean provocation.”
It also underlined its “capability and readiness for precision strikes against the enemy’s origin of provocation,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff added.
A Hyunmoo surface-to-surface short-range missile was sent into the West Sea in the exercise, the military command said.
South Korea started domestic production of short-range ballistic missiles in the 1970s to counter the threats posed by North Korea.
Hyunmoo are a series of missiles which are key to the country’s so-called ‘Kill Chain’ preemptive strike system, which allows Seoul to launch a preemptive attack if there are signs of imminent North Korean attack.
In early October, the country displayed for the first time its largest ballistic missile, the Hyunmoo-5, which is capable of destroying underground bunkers.
Last Sunday, South Korea, Japan and the United States conducted a joint air drill involving a US B-1B bomber, South Korean F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets, and Japanese F-2 jets, in response to the North’s ICBM launch.
Such joint drills infuriate Pyongyang, which views them as rehearsals for invasion.
Kim Yo Jong, sister of the country’s leader and a key spokesperson, called the US-South Korea-Japan exercises an “action-based explanation of the most hostile and dangerous aggressive nature of the enemy toward our Republic.”
The drill was an “absolute proof of the validity and urgency of the line of building up the nuclear forces we have opted for and put into practice,” she added.
Taiwan coast guard offers rewards for spotting foreign ships
- Taiwan’s coast guard said Friday it will reward people who report the presence of foreign military ships, including those from China
TAIPEI: Taiwan’s coast guard said Friday it will reward people who report the presence of foreign military ships, including those from China, in waters around the island, as it seeks the public’s help with monitoring “abnormal” activity.
China regularly deploys fighter jets, navy ships and coast guard vessels around Taiwan to press its claims of sovereignty over the island, which Taipei’s government rejects.
Taiwan is massively outgunned by China, which has refused to renounce the use of force to bring the island under its control.
“The Coast Guard’s manpower is limited but the people power at sea is unlimited,” Taiwan’s coast guard said in a statement announcing the rewards.
The coast guard called on people, including fishers, to “stay vigilant to abnormal maritime activities” to help counter the growing “threats from the sea” and “all kinds of grey zone harassment tactics” — actions that fall short of an act of war.
People who reported homicide, piracy, arson and kidnapping to the coast guard could receive up to NT$200,000 ($6,200), while reports of Chinese “stowaways” would be rewarded with NT$50,000, and NT$10,000 for other foreign stowaways.
Verified reports to the coast guard about foreign and Chinese military ships and other vessels would be rewarded with NT$3,000.
China maintains a near-daily presence of naval vessels and warplanes around the island.
Chinese coast guard ships have also been spotted around Taiwan’s outlying islands, at times briefly entering its restricted waters.
A series of incidents involving boats from both sides have fueled tensions across the narrow waterway separating Taiwan and China.
A Taiwanese court in September sentenced a former Chinese naval captain to eight months in prison for illegally entering the island by boat.
