ANKARA: A deal to buy Russian missiles has left Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan balancing NATO ally the United States and new regional partner Russia as he risks fallout from both Washington and Moscow.
Turkey’s already soured relations with the United States could be significantly damaged with possible US sanctions if Ankara pushes ahead with the deal for the sophisticated S-400 missile defense system.
US officials have repeatedly warned the deal could threaten Turkey’s participation in the F-35 stealth fighter jet program.
But should Ankara renege on the missile purchase, Erdogan risks alienating Russia at a time when Moscow has become a pragmatic partner in Turkey’s strategy in Syria.
At risk would be a deal between Russia and Turkey to stop a Syrian regime offensive in a province controlled by jihadists.
Moscow would also likely hit back economically, experts say, perhaps by stopping millions of Russian tourists coming to Turkey.
Sanctions or fallout from either could not come at a worse time with Turkey’s economy in recession for the first time since 2009 following a currency crisis last year.
US sanctions that helped trigger that turmoil showed just how exposed Turkey’s economy can be.
US Department of Defense spokesman Charlie Summers recently warned Ankara faced “grave consequences” if Turkey took the S-400s, a serious threat according to analysts.
“The US government and Congress are not making idle threats when they warn Turkey not to proceed with the purchase of Russian S-400s,” Amanda Sloat, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said.
“There are serious concerns in Washington as well as Europe about a NATO ally purchasing Russian defense equipment.”
The Americans fear technology from the S-400s would be able to gather data from NATO aircraft and allow Russians to access this information.
“There is the NATO set of issues of buying material that won’t be NATO interoperable and the effect that will have on alliance interoperability,” a senior US official said.
Erdogan says the S-400s are needed to protect Turkey’s borders, and said he turned to Russian equipment because no acceptable US missile deal was available at the time.
The first S-400 delivery is expected in July.
“For us to turn back from the deal is out of the question,” Erdogan said recently.
That could risk Ankara being sanctioned by Washington under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), experts say.
Under CAATSA, any entity doing business with Russia’s state and private defense and intelligence sectors risks sanctions.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said last year Turkey would “absolutely respond” to any US sanctions.
US officials have repeatedly said Turkey’s involvement in the F-35 stealth fighter program should be curtailed if the Russia deal goes ahead.
Turkey plans to buy 100 F-35s and some Turkish pilots have already started training with counterparts in the US.
US General Curtis Scaparrotti this month reiterated that Washington should block delivery of the F-35s if Ankara completes the Russia agreement.
Turkey has invested over $1 billion in the F-35 program and any US decision to prevent the fighters reaching Turkey would be a breach of contract, but there are indications that Washington would be prepared to repay Ankara.
Hoping to supply an alternative to the S-400, Washington approved the sale of Patriot missiles to Ankara last year.
Turkey has no air defense system though NATO allies temporarily deployed Patriots to help defend the country from attack by Syrian jets in 2013.
Acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on Tuesday said Turkey was “absolutely” wanted in the F-35 program but added: “We need Turkey to buy the Patriot.”
“We’re doing our best to give them as real and as credible and as urgent an alternative as possible,” the senior US official, who requested anonymity, said.
Cavusoglu on March 1 said Patriot negotiations had begun after a “positive” response.
But time is short. The formal offer for the Patriot expires at the end of March, according to media reports.
US-Turkey ties are already at a low point with tensions over US support for a Syrian Kurdish militia viewed as terrorists by Ankara, and Washington’s failure to extradite a Muslim preacher accused by Turkey of ordering a 2016 coup attempt.
Last summer, ties between the NATO allies hit another low with tit-for-tat sanctions and the US doubling steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey over the case of a jailed American pastor.
That battered Turkey’s lira and the pastor was freed in October.
The missile row is “unlikely to cause a permanent rupture,” said Sloat, a former US State Department official. “It will significantly strain already challenged relations and raise further questions in Washington about whether Ankara is a reliable ally.”
Part of the concern is the burgeoning relationship between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the Turkish leader expected in Russia in April.
While Turkish and US officials are talking privately, top-level discussions will likely wait until after Turkish local elections on Sunday.
Hande Firat, a Hurriyet daily columnist, said Cavusoglu will meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on a US trip in April and would likely discuss the S-400 dispute.
“How this will develop, we will see after the elections,” she wrote on Tuesday. “But discussions between US President (Donald) Trump and President Erdogan will be key.”
Erdogan juggles Moscow, Washington over Russia missile deal
Erdogan juggles Moscow, Washington over Russia missile deal
- Turkey’s already soured relations with the US could be significantly damaged with possible US sanctions if it pushes ahead with a controversial arms missile deal
- US officials have repeatedly warned the deal could threaten Turkey’s participation in the F-35 stealth fighter jet program
Biggest snowstorm in half century hits Seoul
- Around 300 flights were grounded, massive crowd at subways caused delays
SEOUL: The biggest November snowstorm to hit South Korea’s capital in more than a half century blanketed the capital on Wednesday, grounding hundreds of flights, disrupting commuter traffic and leaving at least two dead.
South Korea’s weather agency said 20 to 26 centimeters of snow fell in northern areas of Seoul and nearby areas. The agency said it was the heaviest snowstorm Seoul has experienced in November in 52 years. A storm on Nov. 28, 1972, dumped 12 centimeters.
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said one person died and four others were injured in a five-vehicle accident in the eastern town of Hongcheon. The storm blanketed much of the country, with the central, eastern and southwestern regions recording about 10 to 28 centimeters of cover.
At least 317 flights were canceled or delayed at airports nationwide, while authorities ordered around 90 ferries to remain at port. They also shut down hundreds of hiking trails.
Icy road conditions slowed down the morning commute in Seoul and led to massive crowds at subways, causing delays. Emergency workers across the country responded to fallen trees, road signs and other safety risks.
Officials at the Safety Ministry said they couldn’t confirm any school closures as of Wednesday afternoon. Visitors dressed in traditional hanbok garb were busy taking photographs at Seoul’s snow-covered medieval palaces while snowmen popped up in playgrounds and schoolyards across the country.
The weather agency said snow will continue in most parts of the country until noon Thursday.
President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed the safety and transport ministries to mobilize all available relevant personnel and equipment to prevent traffic and other accidents.
Court to rule on ineligibility for France’s Le Pen in March
- “This case is a lot less simple than some wanted to think. I still hope we will be heard” by the court, Le Pen, 56, told reporters
- Her defense lawyer Rodolphe Bosseult had earlier told judges that prosecutors’ sentencing request was “a weapon of mass destruction of the way things work in a democracy“
PARIS: French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen will learn in March whether she will be declared ineligible for elections, a Paris court said on Wednesday at the end of a trial for embezzling funds from the European Parliament.
Prosecutors have asked judges at the Paris criminal court that any sentence shutting Le Pen out of public office be applicable even if she appeals the court’s ruling.
That means that if found guilty on March 31, she could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election, scheduled for 2027 at the latest.
“This case is a lot less simple than some wanted to think. I still hope we will be heard” by the court, Le Pen, 56, told reporters following the hearing.
Her defense lawyer Rodolphe Bosseult had earlier told judges that prosecutors’ sentencing request was “a weapon of mass destruction of the way things work in a democracy.”
Bosseult added that if imposed, the penalty would affect “the whole electoral roll or even the validity of the vote” in any election.
Prosecutors’ bombshell request was topped off with a five-year jail term, three of which suspended, and a fine of 300,000 euros ($320,000).
At issue in the case are employment practices for assistants in the European Parliament to representatives of Le Pen’s National Front party — since renamed the National Rally (RN) — between 2004 and 2016.
Prosecutors say the party created a “system” using MEPS’ parliamentary allowances to hire people who in fact worked for the outfit in France — not in Brussels or Strasbourg.
The defense struggled throughout the case to produce evidence that any of the supposed assistants had in fact carried out relevant work.
And the European Parliament itself said the RN had cooked the books to the tune of 4.5 million euros.
Prosecutors said that Le Pen could again misuse public funds if allowed to continue in elected office, as justification for their sentencing request.
But her lawyer Bosselut said that the RN’s financial practices at the time were “banal... shared by every European party” in the parliament.
Buoyed this year by the RN’s unprecedented success at snap parliamentary elections, becoming France’s largest single party in parliament, Le Pen has characterised the sentencing request as an attempt to remove her by means of the judiciary rather than a political fair fight.
White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-old men to help fill manpower needs to battle Russia
- The outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25
- The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine
WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of troops as young as 18.
A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private consultations, said Wednesday that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting age men available to help a badly outmanned Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia.
The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months.
But with time running out, the Biden White House is also sharpening its viewpoint that Ukraine has the weaponry it needs and now must dramatically increase its manpower if it’s going to stay in the fight with Russia.
The official said the Ukrainians believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the US administration believes they probably will need more.
Baltic Sea wind farms impair Sweden’s defense, says military
- The revelation comes after the Swedish government blocked the construction of 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic on November 4
- “The Swedish Armed Forces have been clear in their evaluation regarding offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea,” the military said
STOCKHOLM: Offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea hinder the defense of Sweden and its allies, impairing the military’s ability to identify threats, it said on Wednesday.
The revelation comes after the Swedish government blocked the construction of 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic on November 4, and stopped another off the island of Gotland on November 21 due to the military’s defense concerns.
On Wednesday the military said all wind farm projects in the Baltic would pose a problem.
“The Swedish Armed Forces have been clear in their evaluation regarding offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea,” the military said in an email to AFP.
“It would pose unacceptable risks for the defense of our country and our allies,” it added.
The government said the towers and rotating blades of wind turbines emit radar echoes and generate other forms of interference.
The relative proximity of the 13 blocked projects to the “highly militarised” Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, had been “central” in the government’s assessment, Defense Minister Pal Jonson said.
He said wind farms in the area could delay the detection of incoming cruise missiles, cutting the warning time in half to 60 seconds.
“We currently see no technical solutions or legal prerequisites for a coexistence of our defense interests and wind power in the Baltic Sea,” the Armed Forces said on Wednesday.
“The greatly deteriorated security situation after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine means that we can no longer accept any risks to our defense capability.”
“Our ability to detect incoming threats against both Sweden and our allies is vital. Our sensor chain plays a decisive role in this and it must be able to operate with the highest possible capability,” it said.
Tensions have mounted in the Baltic since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
With Sweden and Finland now NATO members, all of the countries bordering the Baltic are now members of the alliance except Russia.
The Swedish government has insisted that wind power expansion remained a priority, with electricity consumption expected to double by 2045 from the current level.
It has said other areas off Sweden’s southwestern and northeastern coasts were better suited for offshore wind projects.
ICC seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief over crimes against Rohingya
- ICC prosecutor requests arrest warrant for Gen. Min Aung Hlaing
- Hlaing accused of crimes against humanity, deportation and persecution of the Rohingya
The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor on Wednesday applied for an arrest warrant for the head of Myanmar’s military regime for crimes committed against the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Nearly a million people were forced to flee to neighboring Bangladesh from Myanmar’s Rakhine State to escape the 2017 military crackdown that UN experts have referred to as a “genocidal campaign,” amid evidence of ethnic cleansing, mass rape and killings.
ICC judges authorized an investigation into these events in 2019, saying that there was a “reasonable basis to believe widespread and/or systematic acts of violence may have been committed that could qualify as crimes against humanity.”
Although Myanmar is not a state party, Bangladesh ratified the ICC Rome Stature in 2010, which allows the court to have jurisdiction over some crimes related to the Rohingya because of their cross-border nature.
ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan announced the application for an arrest warrant for Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing during a visit to Bangladesh, where he met members of the displaced Rohingya population.
“My office is submitting applications to the judges of the pretrial chamber and this first application is for Min Aung Hlaing, the acting president of Myanmar and the head of the Defense Services of Myanmar. Other warrant applications will follow soon,” he said in a video message.
Hlaing took power from Myanmar’s elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in a coup in 2021. Serving as commander in chief of the Tatmadaw, the armed forces of Myanmar, since 2011, he is accused of having directed attacks against Rohingya civilians.
The ICC chief prosecutor’s office said in a statement that Hlaing “bears criminal responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, committed in Myanmar, and in part in Bangladesh” between Aug. 25, 2017 and Dec. 31, 2017 by the armed forces, “supported by the national police, the border guard police, as well as non-Rohingya civilians.”
The arrest warrant application “draws upon a wide variety of evidence from numerous sources such as witness testimonies, including from a number of insider witnesses, documentary evidence and authenticated scientific, photographic and video materials,” Khan’s office said.
Khan’s application is the first against a high-level Myanmar government official since the ICC investigation started seven years ago.
Nur Khan, a Bangladeshi lawyer and human rights activist, told Arab News it was a big development in the course of delivering justice to the Rohingya community and paving the way for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees.
“Eventually, it will create psychological pressure on the Myanmar military junta. It will also pave the way for the world to create a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis, ensuring reparation with rights, dignity, and citizenship,” he said.
In 2022, the International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, started a separate case brought by Gambia, which accused Myanmar of genocide against the Rohingya. Five European countries and Canada have backed the proceedings.
“It’s true that a genocide had been conducted aiming to completely wipe out the Rohingya, and the Myanmar military has committed this crime. The Rohingya have been demanding for many years that those who are responsible for this genocide should be brought to trial,” Nur Khan said.
“We want to remain hopeful that this process will be expedited and that the Rohingya will get back their rights soon.”
