Syria’s Assad: Last man standing amid new Arab uprisings

Some of Assad's supporters regard his family rule as the base of stability in Syria. (AFP/File)
Updated 13 April 2019
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Syria’s Assad: Last man standing amid new Arab uprisings

  • Assad seems secure in his position as the Syrian crisis enters its ninth year
  • The support of his minority group was one of the reasons that helped him remain in power

BEIRUT: It’s Arab Spring, season II, and he’s one of the few holdovers. The last man standing among a crop of Arab autocrats, after a new wave of protests forced the removal of the Algerian and Sudanese leaders from the posts they held for decades.

Syria’s President Bashar Assad has survived an uprising, a years-long ruinous war and a “caliphate” established over parts of his broken country. As the Syrian conflict enters its ninth year, the 53-year-old leader appears more secure and confident than at any time since the revolt against his rule began in 2011.

But the war for Syria is not over yet, and the path ahead is strewn with difficulties.

The back-to-back ouster of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika after two decades of rule and Sudanese leader Omar Al-Bashir after three, has been dubbed a “second Arab Spring,” after the 2011 wave of protests that shook the Middle East and deposed longtime dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

Social media has been filled with pictures of leaders at past Arab summits, noting almost all of them were now deposed except for Assad. Some pointed out ironically that Al-Bashir’s last trip outside of Sudan in December was to Damascus, where he met with the Syrian leader.

In most countries of the Arab Spring, the faces of the old order were removed, but either the ruling elite that had been behind them stayed in place or chaos ensued.

In Syria, Assad and his inner circle have kept their lock on power and managed to survive eight bloody years of chaos. That resilience may keep him in power for years to come even with a multitude of challenges, including a rapidly degenerating economy and a persisting insurgency in the northwest.

What is Assad’s staying power?

Assad has survived through a mix of factors unique to him. His is a minority rule, and he has benefited from a strong support base and the unwavering loyalty of his Alawite sect, which fears for its future should he be deposed.

That support stretched beyond his base to other minority sects in Syria and some middle- and upper-class Sunnis who regard his family rule as a bulwark of stability in the face of radicals. Despite significant defections early in the conflict, the security services and military have not shown significant cracks. Loyal militias grew and became a power of their own.

Even as vast parts of his country fell from his control or turned into killing fields, Assad kept his core regime in place.

Perhaps Assad’s largest asset is Syria’s position as a geographic linchpin on the Mediterranean and in the heart of the Arab world. That attracted foreign intervention, particularly from Russia and Iran, whose crucial political and military assistance propped up Assad and turned the tide of the war in his favor.

The unwavering backing from powerful friends is in sharp contrast to the muddled response by the US administration, and something none of the other Arab leaders benefited from in their own struggle against their opponents.

Is he completely out of the woods?

For now, Assad appears to be secure. With the help of Russia and Iran, he has restored control over key parts of the country, and the world appears to have accepted his continued rule, at least until presidential elections scheduled for 2021.

Gulf countries reopened embassies after years of boycott. Delegations from Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan have visited in recent months, discussing restarting trade, resuming commercial agreements and releasing prisoners. Although the Arab League said it was not yet time to restore Syria’s membership to the 22-member organization, the issue was discussed at their annual summit for the first time since the country was deprived of its seat eight years ago.

Much of what happens next depends on Assad’s ability to keep a lid on rising discontent as living standards deteriorate, and whether he is able to preserve Russia and Iran’s support.

An economy in shambles

After years of war and ever-tightening US sanctions, Syria’s economic pinch is becoming more painful. The government’s coffers are reeling from lack of resources, and the UN estimates that eight out 10 people live below poverty line.

Gas and fuel shortages were rampant in Damascus, Latakia and Aleppo this winter. Social media groups held competitions over which city had the longest lines at gas stations, forcing the issue to be debated in parliament.

This week, the government-imposed gas rationing, limiting motorists to 20 liters every 48 hours. The crisis was worsened when reports spread about an impending price hike, prompting lines of hundreds of cars to stretch for miles outside gas stations. Oil Minister Ali Ghanem denied plans for a hike, warning of a “war of rumors that is more severe than the political war.”

The government’s inability to cope with rising needs has fueled criticism and anger even among its support base. Still, it’s unlikely the discontent will set off another wave of protests. Most Syrians by now will put up with anything to avoid another slide back to violence.

Still, the United Nations describes the level of need in the country as “staggering,” with 11.7 million Syrians requiring assistance, nearly 65 percent of the estimated 18 million people who remain in the country, millions of whom are displaced from their homes. Another more than 5 million fled abroad during the war.

Going full circle?

Demonstrations reminiscent of the early years of the conflict have resurfaced.

In Daraa, where the revolt started, hundreds took to the streets recently, offended by the government’s plan to erect a statue of the president’s father, the late Hafez Assad. Further protests took place in some former opposition areas recaptured by the government after authorities moved to enforce military conscription there despite promises to hold off.

Arrests and detentions continue to be reported in recaptured areas, fueling fear that so-called reconciliation deals between authorities and residents of former opposition areas are only facades for continued repression and exclusion.

In eastern Ghouta, which the government recaptured last year after a siege, the government has been arresting former protest leaders and anti-government groups despite reconciliation deals, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Militarily, the defeat of the Daesh group’s “caliphate” last month closed one brutal chapter of the war but opens the door to an array of potential other conflicts. The militant group’s defeat sets the stage for President Donald Trump to begin withdrawing US troops from northern Syria, a drawdown that’s expected to set off a race to fill the vacuum.

The focus also pivots to Idlib, the last remaining rebel bastion in Syria where an estimated 3 million people live, under control of Al-Qaeda-linked militants.


UAE warns against ‘miscalculated actions’ in Israeli-Iranian conflict, calls for immediate ceasefire

Updated 4 sec ago
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UAE warns against ‘miscalculated actions’ in Israeli-Iranian conflict, calls for immediate ceasefire

  • Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan says Emirati leadership is dedicated to promotion of stability, prosperity and justice
  • He highlights ‘the risks of reckless and miscalculated actions that could extend beyond the borders’ of Israel and Iran

LONDON: As military exchanges between Israel and Iran continued on Tuesday for a fifth consecutive day, the UAE’s minister of foreign affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, warned of the wider threat posed by the continuing conflict and called for an immediate ceasefire.

“There is no alternative to political and diplomatic solutions,” he said, calling on the UN and its Security Council to intervene and halt the escalating violence.

He also highlighted “the risks of reckless and miscalculated actions that could extend beyond the borders” of Israel and Iran, the Emirates News Agency reported.

The UAE believes “a diplomatic approach is urgently required to lead both parties toward deescalation, end hostilities, and prevent the situation from spiraling into grave and far-reaching consequences,” he added.

The goal of international diplomacy, he said, must be to immediately halt hostilities, prevent the conflict from spiraling out of control, and mitigate its effects on global peace and security.

The UAE condemned the Israeli airstrikes on Iran that began on Friday, which have targeted nuclear sites, military leaders, intelligence chiefs and atomic scientists. Iran has responded by firing ballistic missiles at Israeli towns and cities along the Mediterranean, including Tel Aviv, Rishon LeZion and Haifa.

Sheikh Abdullah said the Emirati leadership is dedicated to the promotion of stability, prosperity and justice, and he stressed the urgent need for wisdom in a region long embroiled in conflicts.

“The UAE believes that promoting dialogue, adhering to international law and respecting the sovereignty of states are essential principles for resolving the current crises,” he added.

“The UAE calls on the United Nations and the Security Council to fully uphold their responsibilities by preventing further escalation, and taking urgent and necessary measures to achieve a ceasefire and reinforce international peace and security.”


At least 60 people feared missing in two deadly shipwrecks off Libya, IOM says

Updated 50 min 37 sec ago
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At least 60 people feared missing in two deadly shipwrecks off Libya, IOM says

  • IOM says shipwrecks happened off the Libyan coast

CAIRO: At least 60 people were feared missing at sea after two deadly shipwrecks off the coast of Libya in recent days, the International Organization for Migration said on Tuesday.


Russia says Israel attacks on Iran are illegal, notes Iran’s commitment to NPT

Updated 52 min 25 sec ago
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Russia says Israel attacks on Iran are illegal, notes Iran’s commitment to NPT

  • The statement said Moscow was waiting for the International Atomic Energy Agency to provide “unvarnished” assessments of the damage caused to Iranian nuclear facilities by Israeli attacks

MOSCOW: Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Tuesday denounced continued Israeli attacks on Iran as illegal and said a solution to the conflict over Tehran’s nuclear program could only be found through diplomacy.
A ministry statement posted on Telegram noted Iran’s “clear statements” on its commitment to adhere to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and its willingness to meet with US representatives.
The statement also said Moscow was waiting for the International Atomic Energy Agency to provide “unvarnished” assessments of the damage caused to Iranian nuclear facilities by Israeli attacks.

 


Qatari emir and Turkish president discuss Israeli attacks on Iran

Updated 17 June 2025
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Qatari emir and Turkish president discuss Israeli attacks on Iran

  • Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasize important need to deescalate conflict and find diplomatic solutions

LONDON: Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday discussed Israel’s ongoing attacks on Iran, which began on Friday and have targeted nuclear sites, military leaders, intelligence chiefs and atomic scientists.

During their call, the leaders emphasized the important need to deescalate the conflict and find diplomatic solutions, the Qatar News Agency reported.

Earlier in the day, the Qatari minister of state for foreign affairs, Mohammed Al-Khulaifi, warned during a call with Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that the targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel represented a serious threat to regional and international security.

The IAEA reported on Monday that an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Natanz Nuclear Facility on Friday had damaged centrifuges at the underground uranium-enrichment plant, raising concerns about possible radiological and chemical contamination in the area.


Qatari minister of state, IAEA chief discuss ‘serious threat’ of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

Updated 17 June 2025
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Qatari minister of state, IAEA chief discuss ‘serious threat’ of Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

  • Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi reiterates Qatar’s condemnation of attacks on Iranian territory
  • He said targeting nuclear facilities threatens regional, international security

LONDON: The Qatari Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi on Tuesday discussed the conflict between Israel and Iran with Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Al-Khulaifi discussed in a call the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities that began on Friday, targeting the Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan nuclear sites.

Al-Khulaifi stressed that targeting nuclear facilities was a serious threat to regional and international security. He reaffirmed Qatar’s commitment to dialogue to resolve conflicts and achieve peace in the region.

The officials discussed ways to improve the security of nuclear facilities and ensure they are safeguarded against threats, the Qatar News Agency reported.

Al-Khulaifi reiterated Qatar’s strong condemnation of the Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, deeming them blatant violations of Iran’s sovereignty and security, the QNA added.

The IAEA reported on Monday that the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s Natanz facility on Friday damaged the centrifuges of the underground uranium enrichment plant, raising concerns about potential radiological and chemical contamination in the area.