BEIRUT: The Syrian government is scrambling to deal with its worst fuel crisis since the war began in 2011, aggravated by US sanctions targeting oil shipments to Damascus.
There was temporary relief when reserves or smuggled oil made their way to the market. Long lines outside gas stations slightly receded, as did public panic that had translated into widespread criticism of government policies.
But more dramatic measures are necessary for the government of President Bashar Assad, which needs to procure more than 75 percent of its fuel from outside sources.
Experts say Damascus either has to regain control of oil-fields in the east, currently controlled by the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or replace oil supplies that used to come from Iran with new ones from Russia — at a political cost.
Government forces and their allies could make a quick move on the east if Washington goes ahead with talk of withdrawing its troops based there and working with the SDF. A US withdrawal would also offer Turkey a chance to launch its own assault to push away the SDF, which it considers a threat, and extend its borders. There are signs, however, the US may be reconsidering its plans.
Eventually, an offensive on the east is inevitable, said Fabrice Balanche, a Syria expert at the University of Lyon.
“When Turkey (attacks) the Kurds, Assad’s forces will (re)take Al-Omar oil field. After 3 months? 6 months? One year?“
For now, Syria needs oil. Domestic production this year reached 24,000 barrels a day — only around 20-25 percent of total needs — down from 350,000 barrels a day before the war. Government officials say they need $2.7 billion worth of subsidized fuel every year.
Iran, which offered vital military support to Assad, was the main provider. But Tehran is feeling the heat as the US squeezes sanctions tighter.
The credit line Iran extended to Damascus since 2013 to supply oil has run dry and its oil shipments stopped late last year. This followed US Treasury sanctions imposed in November on a network that spanned Syria, Iran and Russia and was responsible for shipping oil to the Syrian government. The Treasury also issued a global advisory warning of sanctions for illicit oil shipments, naming specific vessels and pressuring insurance companies. At least one tanker with Iranian oil headed to Syria remains docked outside the Suez Canal since December, according to TankerTrackers.com.
The Syrian pound dropped to one of its lowest values in years, going for 590 liras to the dollar on the black market compared to the official rate of 430 liras, and prices have skyrocketed.
Middlemen benefit from the sanctions by buying oil and bringing it in by land, usually from Iraq or Lebanon — providing around 20 percent of Damascus’ needs. Some is smuggled in from the oil fields of eastern Syria, a trade that went on while the area was held by Daesh and continues under the Kurdish-led SDF. In recent days, activists and residents of Damascus spotted oil trucks crossing into government-held areas.
In the long run, the SDF may have to negotiate a compromise with Damascus, given its precarious dependency on US protection. But for the moment, the SDF is seeking to enforce sanctions, tightening control over supply routes and securing bridges across the Euphrates River to government-controlled areas. They banned the making of barges that carry oil across the river.
Russia can offer a stable supply to replace Iran’s. But to get it, Assad may have to recalibrate ties with his two main allies, Moscow and Tehran, which have different interests in Syria.
“The question is what Assad can offer in return and how profitable that will be for Russia,” said Kirill Semenov, Moscow-based Middle East analyst and a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.
“Moscow could be using this to make Assad more pliable and act more in the interests of Moscow rather than Iran.”
Last week, the Syrian government announced plans to lease the port of Tartous to Russia for 49 years for business. Russia already leases part of the port for its naval base.
The announcement followed reports in February that Iran was in talks to lease the nearby Latakia port in exchange for scrapping Damascus’ debts. That would allow Tehran access to the Mediterranean, right next to the Russian-run port. Moscow would be in a difficult spot with Israel, which has targeted Iranian bases in Syria and maintains a military hotline with Russia.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov met with Assad in Damascus at the end of April and said the Russian lease of the port would boost bilateral trade and benefit the Syrian economy. He lamented that the eastern oil fields are out of the government’s reach but said “specific proposals” exist and that “Syria should be ready to solve (the problem).”
Syrian Minister of Transportation Ali Hammoud said Stroytransgaz, a leading Russian gas and oil company, would expand the port to more than double its current capacity and inject more than $500 million.
Stroytransgaz is not afraid of US sanctions. It is controlled by a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin who faces US sanctions since 2014 because of his connection to the Crimean crisis.
David Butter, an energy expert at Chatham House, said both Iran and Russia are using the fuel crisis as leverage on Assad.
“Iran wants guarantees of debt repayment; Russia seems to be angling for more political (and) military control,” he said. While Moscow has not yet spelled out what it wants, it is looking to “impose its will on the scope of any political settlement, to secure economic assets (and) control the military arena — elbowing out Iran.”
Leith Aboufadel, founder and editor of the pro-Syrian government site Al-Masdar News, said Damascus “may choose the path set forth by the Russians,” including rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.
Late last month, Russian media reported that Putin’s envoy to Syria traveled to Damascus after a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman where they discussed the Syrian crisis. Gulf countries, who had supported the armed opposition, have been making overtures to Assad aiming to pull Damascus out of Tehran’s orbit.
“The Syrian government’s potential decision may not sit well with Iran, but at this juncture in the war, the sanctions and lack of funding are taking a toll on Damascus,” Aboufadel wrote.
Syrian government has few options to battle fuel sanctions
Syrian government has few options to battle fuel sanctions
- US sanctions against Iran are causing fuel shortages in government-held parts of Syria
- The sanctions are working in favour of Russia, which is looking to step in and fill the gap in supply
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, respected army chief
Widely seen as the preferred pick of army backer the United States, he is perceived as being best placed to maintain a fragile ceasefire and pull the country out of financial collapse.
After being sworn in at parliament, Aoun said “a new phase in Lebanon’s history” was beginning.
Analysts said Aoun, who turns 61 on Friday and is considered a man of “personal integrity,” was the right candidate to finally replace Michel Aoun — no relation — whose term as president ended in October 2022, without a successor until now.
A dozen previous attempts to choose a president failed amid tensions between Hezbollah and its opponents, who have accused the Shiite group of seeking to impose its preferred candidate.
Aoun has since 2017 headed the army, an institution that serves as a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides.
He has navigated it through a blistering financial crisis that has drastically slashed the salaries of its 80,000 soldiers, forcing him to accept international aid.
Since late November, he oversaw the gradual mobilization of the armed forces in south Lebanon after a ceasefire ended more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
Under the truce, the Lebanese army has been deploying progressively alongside UN peacekeepers in the south as Israeli forces withdraw, a process they have to finish by January 26.
Speaking on Thursday, Aoun said the state would have “a monopoly” on arms.
The general with broad shoulders and a shaved head has stepped up talks with visiting foreign dignitaries since becoming army chief.
The man of few words was able to count on his good relations across the divided Lebanese political class to see him elected.
Aoun “has a reputation of personal integrity,” said Karim Bitar, an international relations expert at Beirut’s Saint-Joseph University.
He came to prominence after leading the army in a battle to drive out Daesh from a mountainous area along the Syrian border.
“Within the Lebanese army, he is perceived as someone who is dedicated... who has the national interest at heart, and who has been trying to consolidate this institution, which is the last non-sectarian institution still on its feet in the country,” Bitar told AFP.
Aoun was set to retire in January last year, but has had his mandate extended twice — most recently in November.
Mohanad Hage Ali, from the Carnegie Middle East Center, noted that “being the head of US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun has ties to the United States.”
“While he maintained relations with everyone, Hezbollah-affiliated media often criticized him” for those US ties, he told AFP.
Washington is the main financial backer of Lebanon’s army, which also receives support from other countries including Qatar.
An international conference in Paris last month raised $200 million to support the armed forces.
The military has been hit hard by Lebanon’s economic crisis, and at one point in 2020 it said it had cut out meat from the meals offered to on-duty soldiers due to rising food prices.
Aoun, who speaks Arabic, English and French, hails from Lebanon’s Christian community and has two children.
By convention, the presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim.
Aoun is Lebanon’s fifth army commander to become president, and the fourth in a row.
Military chiefs, by convention, are also Maronites.
Egypt top diplomat meets PLO, urges Palestinian unity
- During his meeting with the PLO delegation in Cairo, Badr Abdelatty “reaffirmed Egypt’s supportive stance toward the Palestinian Authority”
CAIRO: Egypt’s foreign minister met a Palestine Liberation Organization delegation Thursday, calling for “unity” and the strengthening of the Palestinian Authority amid Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza.
The conflict began after the Palestinian group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, triggering massive retaliation.
During his meeting with the PLO delegation in Cairo, Badr Abdelatty “reaffirmed Egypt’s supportive stance toward the Palestinian Authority,” his office said in a statement.
The minister also reiterated “Egypt’s rejection of any plans to displace Palestinians from their lands,” it added.
Last month, Egypt hosted talks between rival Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas to discuss bringing post-war Gaza under PA control.
Fatah, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank under the PA, dominates both the PA and the PLO, an internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people.
It has been excluded from Gaza since Hamas seized control in 2007.
On Thursday, Abdelatty also discussed with the PLO delegation Egypt’s efforts to end the Gaza war, reach a ceasefire agreement and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Mediators Egypt, Qatar and the United States have been engaged in months of talks to cement a truce in Gaza, but so far to no avail.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that a Gaza ceasefire remained close but added it may not happen before President Joe Biden hands over to Donald Trump.
“I hope that we can get it over the line in the time that we have,” said Blinken, who leaves office with Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Hamas said at the end of last week that indirect negotiations in Doha had resumed, while Israel said it had authorized negotiators to continue the talks in the Qatari capital.
A previous round of mediation in December ended with both sides blaming the other for the impasse, with Hamas accusing Israel of setting “new conditions” and Israel accusing Hamas of throwing up “obstacles” to a deal.
Qatar, France among first to congratulate new Lebanon president
- French foreign ministry said Joseph Aoun's election “opens a new page" for Lebanon
- Qatari foreign ministry called for “stability”
PARIS: France on Thursday welcomed the election by Lebanese lawmakers of army chief Joseph Aoun as president after a two-year vacuum at the top, urging the formation of a strong government to drag the country out of a political and economic crisis.
Extending France’s “warm congratulations” to Aoun, the French foreign ministry said his election “opens a new page for the Lebanese” and urged “the appointment of a strong government” that can help the country recover.
Qatar praised the election of Aoun as president on Thursday, calling for “stability” after the more than two year vacancy was filled.
“The State of Qatar welcomes the election of Lebanese army commander General Joseph Aoun,” the foreign ministry said in a statement, adding that it hoped his election would “contribute to establishing security and stability in Lebanon.”
Italian foreign minister to meet Syria's new rulers in Damascus
- Antonio Tajani said he would push Syria’s transitional government to pursue an “inclusive political process”
ROME: Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Wednesday he would travel to Syria Friday where he plans to announce an initial development aid package for the country ravaged by years of war.
Tajani’s trip follows those by his French and German counterparts, who visited the Syrian capital last week to meet Syria’s new rulers after they toppled Bashar Assad's regime in a lightning offensive last month.
“It is essential to preserve territorial integrity and prevent (Syria’s) territory from being exploited by terrorist organizations and hostile actors,” Tajani told parliament.
Western powers have been cautiously hoping for greater stability in Syria, a decade after the war triggered a major refugee crisis that shook up European politics.
Tajani did not provide any details about what he called a “first package of aid for cooperation and development.”
Tajani said he would push Syria’s transitional government to pursue an “inclusive political process” that “recognizes and enhances the role of Christians as citizens with full rights.”
Ahead of his trip, Tajani is set Thursday to meet with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Britain and the United States over the Syria situation, with the drafting of a new constitution and Syria’s economic recovery on the agenda.
The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, was expected in Rome for the meeting.
Thousands of Alawites mourn 3 killed by foreign Islamists: monitor, witness
- “Thousands of mourners gathered at the funeral of three Alawite farmers from the same family,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
- The civilians were killed on Wednesday in the village of Ain Sharqia
DAMASCUS: Thousands of Syrians from ousted President Bashar Assad’s Alawite community mourned on Thursday three civilians killed by foreign Islamist allies of the country’s new authorities, a war monitor and an attendee said.
Since Assad’s ouster, violence against Alawites, long associated with his clan, has soared, with the monitor recording at least 148 killings.
“Thousands of mourners gathered at the funeral of three Alawite farmers from the same family, including one child, killed by foreign Islamist fighters allied to Syria’s new authorities,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor.
The civilians were killed on Wednesday in the village of Ain Sharqia, in the Alawite heartland of Latakia province, the Observatory said.
“Down with the factions,” some of those in attendance chanted in reference to armed groups, according to footage shared by the monitor.
Mourner Ali told AFP that people had called for those responsible for the killings to be punished and for foreign fighters to leave so that local policemen affiliated with the new authorities could take their place.
“We can’t have people die every day,” he said, asking to be identified only by his first name to discuss sensitive matters.
“We want security and safety to prevail; we support the transitional authorities. We do not want any more killings after today.”
Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the Observatory, told AFP the mourners also demanded that Syria’s new rulers free thousands of detained soldiers and conscripts.
The Alawite community was over-represented in the country’s now-defunct armed forces.
On Tuesday, three Alawite clerics were also killed by unknown gunmen on the road from Tartus to Damascus, the monitor said.
Another cleric and his wife were found dead in the Hama countryside Thursday after they were abducted a day earlier.
Last month, angry protests broke out in Syria over a video showing an attack on an Alawite shrine, with the Observatory reporting one demonstrator killed in Homs city.
Syrian authorities said the footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the attack, saying republishing the video served to “stir up strife.”
The alliance spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which seized Damascus and ousted Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, has sought to reassure minority communities in the Sunni Muslim majority country.
Assad had long presented himself as a protector of minority groups.