PARIS: The world’s oil supply fell last month, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday, amid rising global tensions as US sanctions on Iran tightened and OPEC+ members produced less crude in line with their pact.
In its latest monthly report on the global oil market, the Paris-based IEA said that while geopolitics and industry disruptions were clouding the outlook it believes that the market balance is set to flip from surplus into deficit, a development that would favor efforts by oil producing nations to keep prices high.
Tensions have been mounting in recent days after the mysterious sabotage of several tankers in the Gulf and drone attacks claimed by Iran-aligned Yemen rebels shut down one of Saudi Arabia’s major oil pipelines.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih called the pipeline attacks, which did not halt exports despite the temporary shutdown of the pipeline, an “act of terrorism... that not only targets the kingdom but also the security of oil supplies to the world and the global economy.”
Meanwhile, the UAE has said four ships were damaged Sunday in “sabotage attacks” off the emirate of Fujairah, on the mouth of the Hormuz, a key transit point for oil tankers.
The incidents follow the expiration at the beginning of May of waivers the US granted eight major importers of Iranian oil.
The IEA said Iranian crude oil output fell in April to 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd), the lowest level in over five years, and could tumble in May to levels not seen since the 1980s war with Iraq.
In a table with data from energy sector intelligence firm Kpler, Iranian exports are seen as plunging to roughly 0.5 mbd in May from around 1.4 mbd in April.
The supply disruptions, including those from crisis-hit Venezuela, come as OPEC and its allies including Russia, often called OPEC+, are pushing forward with their latest pact to restrain production.
After a production glut lead to prices dropping last year they agreed in December to trim production once again.
The IEA said the OPEC+ nations produced 0.44 mbd less than their target in April.
Nevertheless, it said: “there have been clear and, in the IEA’s view, very welcome signals from other producers that they will step in to replace Iran’s barrels, albeit gradually in response to requests from customers.”
It noted that despite the supply uncertainty and a brief run up to $75 per barrel, prices for the global benchmark Brent crude are little changed from one month ago.
With fresh economic data and forecasts now available, the IEA trimmed its forecast for growth in global oil demand this year to an increase of 1.3 mbd, primarily due to a slow start of the year.
However, it said: “slower demand growth is likely to be short-lived, as we believe that the pace will pick up during the rest of the year.”
The lower demand in the first quarter of the year means that the oil market likely remained in surplus despite efforts by OPEC+ to eliminate the glut, the IEA said, adding that it is “highly likely” it will flip into deficit this quarter.
But the IEA’s outlook is based on the general assumption that global economic activity picks up from the soft patch experienced at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
“Rising trade tensions, however, represent the main threat to the currently fragile rebound,” it warned as the dispute between the United States and China deepened.
The United States last week raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, with China responding with increased duties on $60 billion of US goods.
The administration of US President Donald Trump is considering whether to put tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese goods, which would mean nearly all imports from China would face tariffs.
Citing estimates that a full blown trade war would dent global economic and trade growth, the IEA said it would have “negative implications” for oil demand.
Oil supply drops as Iran sanctions bite: IEA
Oil supply drops as Iran sanctions bite: IEA
- The agency said the market balance might flip from surplus to deficit
- Saudi Energy Minister said the attack on the Saudi pipelines targeted global oil supplies
Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah airport soars to top three in Middle East airport rankings
JEDDAH: King Abdulaziz International Airport has secured third place in the 2024 Airport Connectivity Index for the Middle East, marking a significant milestone in Saudi Arabia’s ascent as a global aviation hub.
The ranking was announced at the Air Connectivity Conference 2025, held in Shanghai, where the Airports Council International Asia-Pacific and Middle East unveiled its annual index.
KAIA followed Dubai International Airport and Qatar’s Hamad International Airport in the regional rankings, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
This recognition underscores both KAIA’s growing operational capacity and Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030 goal of transforming the Kingdom into a leading logistics and transportation center. As part of that strategy, Saudi Arabia aims to handle 330 million passengers annually, connect to 250 international destinations, and transport 4.5 million tonnes of cargo by 2030.
Mazen Johar, CEO of Jeddah Airports Co., said the latest ranking reflects the airport’s progress in expanding its air network and enhancing connectivity.
“This milestone demonstrates our commitment to operational excellence and aligns with our strategy to establish KAIA as a pivotal global hub,” he said in a statement to SPA.
Johar noted that the airport’s improved ranking is a result of sustained efforts to boost competitiveness, upgrade infrastructure, and elevate passenger experience in line with national transport goals.
KAIA also held the third spot in the 2023 edition of the index, announced during ACI’s annual assembly in Riyadh.
As part of its long-term development plans, JEDCO is implementing upgrades aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy. These enhancements aim to increase KAIA’s passenger capacity to 114 million annually by the end of the decade.
In 2024, KAIA served 49.1 million passengers — up 14 percent from 2023 — marking the highest annual passenger volume recorded by any airport in the Kingdom. The busiest day was December 31, when over 174,600 passengers passed through the airport. December also set a monthly record, with traffic exceeding 4.7 million passengers.
In the Asia-Pacific rankings, Shanghai Pudong International Airport claimed the top spot, followed by Incheon International Airport in South Korea and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. Hong Kong International Airport was recognized as the most improved airport in terms of connectivity across both regions.
Headquartered in Hong Kong with a regional office in Riyadh, ACI Asia-Pacific and Middle East represents airports in some of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets. The Airport Connectivity Index— developed with PwC in 2023 and refined in its third edition — measures network scale, frequency, destination economic weight, and connection efficiency.
According to ACI, air connectivity in the Middle East grew 28 percent year on year, while Asia-Pacific saw a 13 percent increase, reflecting a 14 percent average growth across both regions. These gains signal a robust post-pandemic recovery and the continued momentum of global air travel.
Saudi EXIM Bank targets African markets with 4 new MoUs
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating the expansion of its non-oil exports into African markets, with the Saudi Export-Import Bank securing four new strategic agreements to strengthen trade and investment ties across the continent.
Saudi Export-Import Bank CEO Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb signed memoranda of understanding with Africa50, the Ghana Export-Import Bank, Blend International Limited, and Guinea’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The deals were finalized on the sidelines of the African Development Bank Group’s annual meetings, held in Côte d’Ivoire from May 26 to 30.
The newly signed deals come as Saudi exports to Africa surged 20.6 percent year on year to SR7.84 billion ($2.09 billion) in March 2025, reflecting growing trade ties between the Kingdom and the continent.
Al-Khalb said the bank’s participation in the meetings aims to deepen international trade relations and forge partnerships that support Saudi non-oil export growth in African markets.
The SPA report added: “He stated that the memoranda of understanding are an extension of the bank’s efforts to promote trade exchange, stimulate development projects, and enable local exporters to export their services and products to African markets through effective and extended partnerships, contributing to supporting sustainable development goals and enhancing economic integration.”
He also described the gathering as a valuable opportunity to boost economic cooperation and engage with officials from export credit agencies and financial institutions across African countries.
The agreements were signed by Saudi EXIM CEO Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb, along with Alain Ebobisse, CEO of Africa50; Sylvester Mensah, CEO of the Ghana Export-Import Bank; Ravi Gupta, managing director of Blend International Limited; and Ismail Nabeh, minister of planning and international cooperation of Guinea.
The MoU with Africa50 is aimed at enhancing cooperation in infrastructure projects by partnering with Saudi companies. The agreement with the Ghana Export-Import Bank will focus on exploring cooperation opportunities and enhancing bilateral exports of services and products.
Meanwhile, the MoU with Blend International Limited is aimed at targeting broader trade opportunities and international partnerships. The deal with Guinea’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation seeks to bolster development projects and investment in priority sectors, enabling Saudi exports of engineering services and industrial supplies.
Also, on the sidelines of the event, Al-Khalb and his delegation held in-depth discussions with leaders of several international financial institutions, focusing on expanding trade ties and boosting the flow of Saudi non-oil exports into African markets.
Asia’s first Saudi sukuk ETF launched in Hong Kong
RIYADH: Hong Kong has launched Asia’s first exchange-traded fund tracking Saudi sovereign sukuk, marking a major development in financial cooperation between East Asia and the Middle East.
The Premia BOCHK Saudi Arabia Government Sukuk ETF, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, follows the iBoxx Tadawul Government & Agencies Sukuk Index. It includes both riyal- and US dollar-denominated sukuk issued by the Saudi government and related agencies.
The ETF is traded under stock codes 3478 for the Hong Kong dollar counter and 9478 for the US dollar counter. It has been approved by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. It offers quarterly US dollar distributions, with fees capped at 0.35 percent and an expected annual tracking difference of around -2 percent.
The launch coincided with the opening of the Capital Markets Forum, a two-day event hosted by Saudi Tadawul Group and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd., aimed at boosting cross-border investment.
This year’s forum, held under the theme “Powering Connections,” focuses on strengthening economic and capital market ties between the Middle East and East Asia.
The ETF is managed by Premia Partners, with BOCHK Asset Management Ltd. serving as investment adviser.
Speaking at the forum, Mohammed Al-Rumaih, CEO of the Saudi Exchange, said the CMF is becoming “a leading global platform for collaboration and dialogue on the future of capital markets and economic transformation.”
“We aim to strengthen ties with both local and international investors and to reinforce the Saudi capital market’s position as a leading global hub, serving as a bridge between capital markets in the East and West,” Al-Rumaih said.
Bonnie Y. Chan, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd, said that the partnership with Saudi Tadawul Group underscores the strong ties between the two exchanges.
“This second edition of the forum will serve as a dynamic platform to connect our broad base of investors and issuers, while encouraging deeper dialogue and collaboration among the capital-raising hubs of Mainland China, Hong Kong, and the Middle East,” Chan said.
The forum featured a series of keynote speeches and panel discussions focused on global economic trends, investment strategies, financial innovation, and the integration of sustainability into financial markets.
As part of the event, the Corporate Access Program enabled direct engagement between investors and senior executives from listed companies and capital market institutions across the region, fostering greater transparency and dialogue.
The launch of the ETF, alongside the Capital Markets Forum, reflects Saudi Arabia’s commitment to elevating its capital markets on the global stage. These efforts align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to enhance financial sector integration and attract foreign investment.
At the same time, Hong Kong continues to strengthen its role as a vital conduit for capital flows between East and West, reinforcing its position as a leading international financial hub.
Qatar’s debt market to surpass $150bn on steady issuance, Fitch says
RIYADH: Qatar’s debt capital market is expected to exceed $150 billion in the medium term, supported by continued momentum in issuance across sovereign, bank, and corporate segments, according to a new analysis.
In its latest report, Fitch Ratings said the Qatari DCM expanded 13 percent year on year in the first four months of 2025, pushing outstanding volume to $131.8 billion.
The analysis noted that sovereign issuers accounted for the majority with 60 percent, while banks and corporates contributed 26 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
The study positions Qatar’s growth within broader Gulf Cooperation Council trends, where the region’s overall DCM surpassed $1 trillion as of November, driven by robust oil revenues. In a February update, Fitch projected that the GCC will continue to rank among the top emerging-market issuers of dollar-denominated debt through 2025.
On Qatar’s DCM growth, Fitch stated: “Sukuk, ESG (environmental, social, and governance), and Qatari riyal market penetration are on an upward trajectory. The potential development of digital government bonds, as part of the Qatar Central Bank’s Central Bank Digital Currency project, can support the market’s depth and sophistication.”
The DCM, which involves the trading of securities like bonds and promissory notes, serves as a key mechanism for raising long-term capital for both businesses and governments.
Qatar ranks as the third-largest DCM source in the GCC, holding a 13 percent regional share by the end of April. However, issuance volume dropped to $9.6 billion in the first four months of the year, a 36 percent decline from the same period in 2024.
The share of sukuk in the DCM rose to 16.9 percent or $22 billion, but sukuk issuance slumped 86 percent year on year. Bond issuance fell 18 percent during the same period.
“Fitch’s base case is that the government is going to refinance upcoming external market debt maturities and tap markets to cover a small budget surplus in 2025 under the assumption of a Brent oil price of $65 per barrel (excluding QIA investment income), while banks and corporates are likely to continue to diversify funding sources,” the report stated.
While 67 percent of outstanding Qatari DCM remains US dollar-denominated, 28 percent is in riyals. In 2024, approximately 90 percent of the sovereign’s bond issuance and all sovereign bond sukuk were riyal-denominated.
The report highlighted that ESG debt is becoming a key dollar funding tool, accounting for almost 30 percent of all dollar DCM issuance in 2024. ESG DCM volume hit $4.1 billion by April, rising 204 percent year on year, with sukuk accounting for 18 percent.
Qatar’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 49 percent in 2025 before falling below 45 percent by 2027 on the back of increased gas output and associated budget surpluses.
Fitch projects the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4.25 percent by the end of 2025, a trend the Qatar Central Bank is likely to follow.
In a separate February report, the agency forecast Saudi Arabia’s DCM would hit $500 billion by end-2025, spurred by the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification plan.
Saudi Aramco cuts propane, butane prices for June
RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has reduced its official selling prices for propane and butane for June 2025, according to a company statement issued on Thursday.
The price of propane was cut by $10 per tonne to $600, while butane saw a steeper reduction of $20 per tonne, bringing it to $570.
The adjustments reflect shifts in market conditions and follow a downward trend from the previous month.
Propane and butane, both classified as liquefied petroleum gas, are widely used for heating, as vehicle fuel, and in the petrochemical industry. Their differing boiling points make each suitable for distinct industrial and domestic applications.
Aramco’s LPG prices are considered key benchmarks for supply contracts from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.
The global LPG market is undergoing a significant shift as steep tariffs on US imports prompt Chinese buyers to replace American cargoes with supplies from the Middle East.
Meanwhile, US shipments are being redirected to Europe and other parts of Asia.
This realignment is expected to put downward pressure on prices and demand for shale gas byproducts, posing financial challenges for both US shale producers and Chinese petrochemical companies. At the same time, it is likely to drive increased interest in alternative feedstocks such as naphtha.
Middle Eastern suppliers are emerging as key beneficiaries, filling the gap left by reduced US exports to China. In addition, opportunistic buyers in Asian markets like Japan and India are capitalizing on the price drops to secure more favorable deals.
