PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron this weekend faces a critical test of his ambitions to reform France and champion a liberal Europe in European Parliament elections where his own party risks losing to the far-right.
The latest opinion surveys show the far-right National Rally (RN) outpolling Macron’s centrist Republic on the Move (LREM) by between 0.5-2 percentage points, after months where the two were neck-and-neck.
Analysts say that two years into his five-year term, the EU election represents a critical juncture for Macron and will influence whether the 41-year-old president can continue reforming in what he calls the “second act” of his time in office.
Macron has made no secret of the importance of the polls in France Sunday, telling regional newspapers this week the elections were the most important for four decades as the union faced an “existential threat.”
At stake is the youthful president’s vision of implementing further pro-business reforms in France, while emerging as a champion of more integration among EU member states.
Losing to Marine Le Pen’s RN — formerly known as the National Front — could be a glaring blow to those ambitions.
Sources close to Macron say a bad loss could prompt a major cabinet reshuffle, with the job of Prime Minister Edouard Philippe seen as being on the line.
“Symbolically, losing European elections in his own country would be seen as a repudiation of someone so pro-European,” said Sebastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute think-tank.
“What is at stake for Emmanuel Macron is to have an influence in the future European parliament. This is not a given.”
Macron will find it tricky to challenge the dominance of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) in the 751-seat parliament.
His European allies, grouped together in the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), may only end up with some 100 seats.
“If you don’t have a position in the European parliament then your European influence is limited,” said a French presidential official.
“This is what is at stake in the elections in the face of the nationalist risk.”
The elections also come at a prickly time in Macron’s relations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is due to leave office in 2021 but who the French president wanted to cultivate as an ally in reforming Europe.
Merkel is unhappy with Macron challenging the EPP which she backs, while tensions have flared over Brexit, the choice of the next EU commission chief and France’s decision to increase its budget deficit.
“The European political landscape is very fractured, there is no leadership and Macron has not succeeded in imposing his,” said Jean-Thomas Lesueur, political scientist at the Franco-Belgian Thomas More Institute.
After an initial burst of optimism, the “Germans became disenchanted quite quickly,” he said.
The elections come with Macron still shaken after six months of sometimes violent anti-government protests by the “yellow vest” movement which prompted him to announce tax cuts for the working classes and a rise in the minimum wage.
The protests have shrunk in size, but Macron’s popularity ratings remain leaden with the president painfully aware his two predecessors both lasted only one term without leaving any major mark.
Sources said if the LREM falls behind the RN all eyes will be on the margin to determine the magnitude of the reaction.
“If there is nothing in it, behind or in front, I don’t see a reshuffle. But if we are three to four points behind the RN, or below 20 percent, people within the ruling party will start to ask questions,” said a person close to Macron, who asked not to be named.
“And this will require a change in personnel,” the source said.
A minister, also speaking on condition of anonymity, added: “If we are far behind the RN then things are going to shake. There will be a big reshuffle. I don’t see how we can lose the elections” and not change the prime minister.
For Brice Teinturier from the polling institute Ipsos in France, a victory for Macron’s party would give the government some “political oxygen” and capacity to allow reforms to continue.
“But if they are overtaken by the RN — and not just by 0.5 but two percentage points — this will be a failure and the capacity of the government to reform will be something that is merely hypothetical,” he said.
Macron’s ambitions face test in high-stakes EU polls
Macron’s ambitions face test in high-stakes EU polls
- The EU election represents a critical juncture for Emmanuel Macron
- Sources close to Macron say a bad loss could prompt a major cabinet reshuffle
Several wounded North Korean soldiers died after being captured by Ukraine: Zelensky
Ukraine and its western allies say North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia’s army, in what is seen as a major escalation in the nearly three-year war following Moscow’s 2022 invasion.
“Today there were reports about several soldiers from North Korea. Our soldiers managed to take them prisoner. But they were very seriously wounded and could not be resuscitated,” Zelensky said in an evening address posted on social media.
South Korea’s spy agency said earlier on Friday that a North Korean soldier who was captured while fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine had died of his wounds.
Zelensky did not specify how many North Koreans had died after being captured by Ukrainian troops.
Zelensky had earlier said that nearly 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been “killed or wounded” so far as they joined Russia’s forces in combat in its western Kursk border region, where Ukraine mounted a shock incursion in August.
South Korea’s intelligence service had previously put the number of killed or wounded North Koreans at 1,000, saying the high casualty rate could be down to an unfamiliar battlefield environment and their lack of capability to counter drone attacks.
The White House on Friday confirmed the South Korean estimates, saying that Pyongyang’s troops were being sent to their deaths in futile attacks by generals who see them as “expendable.”
“We also have reports of North Korean soldiers taking their own lives rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces, likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
North Korea and Russia have strengthened their military ties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A landmark defense pact between Pyongyang and Moscow signed in June came into force this month, with Russian President Vladimir Putin hailing it as a “breakthrough document.”
North Korean state media said Friday that Putin sent a New Year’s message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, saying: “The bilateral ties between our two countries have been elevated after our talks in June in Pyongyang.”
Seoul’s military believes that North Korea was seeking to modernize its conventional warfare capabilities through combat experience gained in the Russia-Ukraine war.
NATO chief Mark Rutte had also said that Moscow was providing support to Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs in exchange for the troops.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Monday that Pyongyang is reportedly “preparing for the rotation or additional deployment of soldiers” and supplying “240mm rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery” to the Russian army.
Pyongyang’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine had prompted warnings from Seoul.
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol, currently suspended, said in November that Seoul was “not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons” to Kyiv, which would mark a major shift to a long-standing policy barring the sale of weapons to countries in active conflict.
Azerbaijani and US officials suggest plane that crashed may have been hit by weapons fire
- Azerbaijani lawmaker and aviation experts blame Azerbaijan Airlines crash on Russian air defenses
- Crash killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured
BAKU: Russian air defense systems may have brought down an Azerbaijani airliner this week, a US official said Friday after an Azerbaijani minister also suggested the plane was hit by a weapon, citing expert analysis and survivor accounts.
Friday’s assessments by Rashan Nabiyev and White House national security spokesman John Kirby echoed those made by outside aviation experts who blamed the crash on Russian air defense systems responding to a Ukrainian attack. These statements raised pressure on Russia, where officials said a drone attack was underway in the region where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was heading for a landing. They did not address statements blaming air defenses.
Kirby told reporters on Friday that the US “have seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems,” but refused to elaborate, citing an ongoing investigation.
Pressed on whether the US has intelligence that helped lead to that conclusion, or was simply relying on informed speculation from experts based on visual assessments of the crash, Kirby characterized the short answer as “yes” but said he’d “leave it at that,” without providing further details.
The plane was flying from Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, on Wednesday when it turned toward Kazakhstan and crashed while making an attempt to land. The crash killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s minister of digital development and transportation, told Azerbaijani media that “preliminary conclusions by experts point at external impact,” as does witness testimony.
“The type of weapon used in the impact will be determined during the probe,” Nabiyev said.
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
Flight attendant Aydan Rahimli said that after one noise, the oxygen masks automatically released. She said that she went to perform first aid on a colleague, Zulfugar Asadov, and then they heard another bang.
Asadov said that the noises sounded like something hitting the plane from outside. Shortly afterwards, he sustained a sudden injury like a “deep wound, the arm was lacerated as if someone hit me in the arm with an ax,” he added. He denied a claim from Kazakh officials that an oxygen canister exploded inside the plane.
Two other survivors recounted hearing explosions before the plane went down: Jerova Salihat told Azerbaijani television in an interview in the hospital that “something exploded” near her leg, and Vafa Shabanova said that “there were two explosions in the sky, and an hour and a half later the plane crashed to the ground.”
Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia, said Friday that as the plane was preparing to land in Grozny in deep fog, Ukrainian drones were targeting the city, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.
Yadrov said that after the captain made two unsuccessful attempts to land, he was offered other airports but decided to fly to Aktau in Kazakhstan, across the Caspian Sea.
He didn’t comment on statements from some aviation experts, who pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section suggested that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems.
Ukrainian drones have previously attacked Grozny and other areas in the Russian North Caucasus.
Azerbaijan Airlines blamed the crash on unspecified “physical and technical interference” and announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports. It didn’t say where the interference came from or provide any further details.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the claims that the plane was hit by Russian air defenses, saying that it will be up to investigators to determine the cause of the crash.
“The air incident is being investigated, and we don’t believe we have the right to make any assessments until the conclusions are made as a result of the investigation,” Peskov said in a conference call with reporters.
If it’s proven that the plane crashed after being hit by Russian air defenses, it would be the second deadly civil aviation accident linked to fighting in Ukraine. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was downed with a Russian surface-to-air missile, killing all 298 people aboard, as it flew over the area in eastern Ukraine controlled by Moscow-backed separatists in 2014.
Russia has denied responsibility, but a Dutch court in 2022 convicted two Russians and a pro-Russia Ukrainian man for their role in downing the plane with an air defense system brought into Ukraine from a Russian military base.
Investigators from Azerbaijan are working in Grozny as part of the probe of Wednesday’s crash, the Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s office said in a statement.
Following Wednesday’s suspension of flights from Baku to Grozy and Makhachkala, Azerbaijan Airlines announced Friday that it would also halt service to eight more Russian cities.
The company will continue to operate flights to six Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Those cities also have been repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes in the past.
Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air also announced Friday that it was suspending flights from Astana to the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in the Ural Mountains for a month.
FlyDubai also halted flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody in southern Russian for the next few days.
The day before, Israel’s El Al carrier suspended flights from Tel Aviv to Moscow citing “developments in Russia’s airspace.” The airline said it would reassess the situation next week.
Driver who killed 35 in China car ramming sentenced to death
- On November 11, 62-year-old Fan Weiqiu deliberately drove through people exercising outside a sports complex in his small SUV, the worst attack in China since 2014
BEIJING: A man who killed 35 people in a car attack in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai last month was sentenced to death on Friday, state media reported.
On November 11, 62-year-old Fan Weiqiu deliberately drove through people exercising outside a sports complex in his small SUV, the worst attack in China since 2014.
He was detained at the scene with self-inflicted knife injuries and fell into a coma, police said at the time.
His case was publicly tried on Friday, state broadcaster CCTV reported, with the verdict reached on the same day.
The court said the defendant’s motives “were extremely vile, the nature of the crime extremely egregious, the methods particularly cruel, and the consequences particularly severe, posing significant harm to society,” state media said.
In front of some of the victims’ families, officials and members of the public, Fan pleaded guilty, it added.
The court found Fan had “decided to vent his anger” over “a broken marriage, personal frustrations, and dissatisfaction with the division of property after divorce,” the report said.
China has this year seen a string of mass casualty incidents — from stabbings to car attacks — challenging its reputation for good public security.
Some analysts have linked the incidents to growing anger and desperation at the country’s slowing economy and a sense that society is becoming more stratified.
Philippine companies secure $100m in deals at Saudi Halal Expo
- Filipino expats in Saudi Arabia were among main drivers of success
- Seafood, precooked meals are Philippines’ top halal export products
MANILA: Philippine companies have secured $100 million in deals at this year’s Saudi Halal Expo in Riyadh, the Department of Trade and Industry said on Friday, marking a milestone in the country’s efforts to tap into the global halal market.
The annual Saudi International Halal Expo was held in Riyadh from Oct. 28 to 30, providing a platform for stakeholders from across the world to see and showcase the latest innovations, research and developments in the global halal market.
The Philippine delegation to the fair was led by the DTI, with exhibitors presenting products that including fruit, food and beverages, as well as supplement sectors to tourism, travel and finance.
The $100 million in deals was achieved from the “participation of Philippine exporters at the Saudi Halal Expo 2024 and B2B (business-to-business) meetings,” Aleem Guiapal, who leads the DTI’s halal industry taskforce, told Arab News.
“Seafood, pre-cooked halal (meals) were the top products.”
One of the main drivers of the success were the more than a million Filipino expats living and working in Saudi Arabia.
“The presence of the overseas Filipino workers in the Middle East is a captured market for Filipino halal products,” he said. “Institutional buyers such as supermarkets and industries also see the value of Filipino ingenuity in our products and cuisine.”
The 64-member Philippine delegation that took part in the expo and business meetings included 12 Filipino companies. They showcased their products under “Halal-friendly Philippines” – a government umbrella brand promoting the country as a halal market hub in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Philippine government welcomed the achievement as proof of the country’s growing international reputation as a provider of halal-certified products and services.
“This success reflects the Philippines’ strategic vision under Bagong Pilipinas to establish a strong and sustainable halal ecosystem that meets global demand,” the DTI’s Secretary Cristina A. Roque said in a statement.
“It is also a testament to the collective efforts of our industries and the government to drive business growth, attract international investments, and create meaningful job opportunities for Filipinos and the global halal community.”
The predominantly Catholic Philippines – where Muslims constitute about 10 percent of the almost 120 million population – has been making efforts to tap into the global halal market, which is estimated to be worth more than $7 trillion.
By increasing its presence and doubling the number of its halal-certified products and services, the Philippine government plans to raise $4 billion in investments and generate about 120,000 jobs by 2028.
India declares week of mourning for former PM Manmohan Singh
- Singh led the country from 2004 to 2014, and was credited with saving India from a financial crisis
- Former leader, the first Sikh to lead the nation, died on Thursday, aged 92
NEW DELHI: Government offices in India lowered the national flag on Friday for a week of mourning for former prime minister Manmohan Singh, whose economic reforms helped transform the country into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
The first Sikh to lead the nation, Singh served a rare two terms as prime minister from 2004 to 2014. He died on Thursday at the age of 92.
The government declared a period of mourning until Jan. 1.
“During this period the national flag will be flown at half-mast throughout India where it is regularly flown and there will be no official entertainment during the period of state mourning,” the Ministry of Home Affairs said.
“It has also been decided that the state funeral will be accorded to late Dr. Manmohan Singh.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid tribute to Singh, saying the former leader would be remembered as a “kind-hearted individual, a scholarly economist,” and a leader dedicated to reforms.
“He steered the country out of a financial crisis and paved the way for a new economic direction,” Modi said in a video message.
“His contributions as the prime minister toward the country’s development and progress will always be cherished.”
Singh was born in Gah, now in Pakistan, but his family migrated to India during the partition of the subcontinent in 1947.
He completed his economics degree at the University of Cambridge and earned a doctorate at Oxford with a thesis on the role of exports in India’s economy.
After teaching economics at the University of Punjab, he went to work for the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and later served as economic adviser to the Indian government until he was appointed to head India’s central bank in 1982, and served finance minister from 1991 to 1996.
In the early 1990s, India faced a deep economic crisis, and Singh played a pivotal role in transitioning the country from a closed economy to a more open, liberalized system. This shift set India on a path of sustained growth for decades.
It was also during his term that India signed a landmark civil nuclear deal with the US, despite not being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The deal granted India access to advanced American nuclear technology.
“Manmohan Singh will be remembered for initiating economic reforms and aligning the country with the West. The foreign policy crafted during that phase has been pursued vigorously by Narendra Modi,” Sanjay Kapoor, analyst and political editor, told Arab News.
“Among his major achievements are the raising millions of those living below the poverty line and strengthening democratic institutions.”
Singh was asked to take on the prime minister’s job by Sonia Gandhi, who had led the center-left Congress party to a surprise victory in 2004.
“Manmohan Singh Ji led India with immense wisdom and integrity. His humility and deep understanding of economics inspired the nation,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said.
“I have lost a mentor and guide. Millions of us who admired him will remember him with the utmost pride.”
