Turkey and Russia face escalation of violence over Syria’s push into Idlib

Protesters wave Syrian and Turkish flags as they attend a rally against the Syrian regime offensive in southwestern city of Idlib, in Maarat Al-Numan, south of Idlib, Syria. (AP/file)
Updated 02 June 2019
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Turkey and Russia face escalation of violence over Syria’s push into Idlib

  • ‘The human loss is horrible,’ opposition spokesman tells Arab News
  • Turkey facing pressure from Syria, Iran and Russia to deliver on its pledge to control armed factions in the region

JEDDAH/ISTANBUL:  Ankara and Moscow are again facing an escalation of violence in Syria’s last opposition-held territory.

An all-out offensive by the Assad regime to capture Idlib in northwest Syria could unleash an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, as the province is home to 3 million people.

Regime ground forces have been advancing from the south of the opposition stronghold under the cover of Syrian and Russian airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 291 civilians and 369 fighters have been killed in Idlib since April 30. 

In the same period, 269 regime troops and 22 civilians have been killed in regime-held areas by opposition fire.

The UN children’s agency said more than 130 children have reportedly been killed. More than 200,000 people from Idlib have been displaced, according to the UN.

Ankara has accused the Assad regime of violating a cease-fire brokered by Turkey and Russia. 

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara has told Russia that “the regime must be controlled.”

Syrian opposition spokesman Yahya Al-Aridi said the regime has chosen a military path in handling the popular uprising. “The more tension, the better for the regime and Iran, its main supporter,” he told Arab News. 

Russia has tried more than 250 kinds of deadly weapons in Syria, he said. “It wanted to tailor a solution that fits its own interests and suits the regime. The pretext is there in Idlib with some Al-Nusra fighters,” he added. 

What is happening in Idlib, said Al-Aridi, is a violation of accords between Turkey and Russia. 
“The losses on both sides are tremendous, with people defending themselves against ground forces. But they can’t do anything against the Russian and regime bombardment,” he added. 

“The human loss is horrible. Hundreds of thousands are fleeing their homes with no shelter. It’s a humanitarian disaster, with the world unfortunately watching and doing nothing against those criminals.”
Turkey, which is already hosting more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees, is facing strong pressure from Syria, Iran and Russia to deliver on its pledge to control the armed opposition factions in Idlib.

But Turkey also needs Russia to rein in Syria’s Bashar Assad to prevent a massive outflow of refugees and to keep Turkish soldiers on the ground safe.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin “have an incentive to cooperate and ensure that nobody’s interests are totally trampled,” says Aaron Stein, the director of the Middle East program in American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute.

In September, the two leaders brokered a cease-fire for Idlib in the Russian resort of Sochi, preventing a bloody onslaught, despite the fact that Russia has firmly backed Assad and Turkey supports opposition forces. Nine months later, the truce has failed.

The agreement called for a 15-to-20 km demilitarized zone free of insurgents and heavy weaponry and for two key highways crossing through Idlib to be reopened. The demilitarized zone has been breached and the highways are at the center of the current regime offensive.
 

FASTFACT

 

• In September, the two countries brokered a cease-fire for Idlib in the Russian resort of Sochi, preventing a bloody onslaught, despite the fact that Russia has firmly backed Assad and Turkey supports opposition forces. Nine months later, the truce has failed.

• Instead of coming under the umbrella of moderate groups, HTS has used Turkey as leverage against Russia and Assad-supporter Iran.

Turkey has accused the Syrian regime of violating the cease-fire and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said the country has told Russia “the regime must be controlled.”

Russia has launched airstrikes in Idlib and is providing air cover in the Syrian regime offensive. It has complained that the fighters have increasingly been targeting its military base in the nearby coastal province of Latakia.

But for now, Moscow is unlikely to support an all-out Syrian operation in Idlib because the benefits of a long-term alliance with Turkey outweigh one military battle.

“Russia doesn’t want to ruin its relationship with Turkey because of Idlib,” says Kirill Semenov, a Moscow-based Middle East analyst and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

In late April, Putin said he would not rule out a large-scale assault but “together with our Syrian friends, we believe that this would not be advisable” due to humanitarian issues.

Still, Russia’s patience is wearing thin with the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, which it accuses of targeting its military base. HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the US, Russia and Turkey, despite its claims it has disassociated from Al-Qaeda.

Top Russian officials have often called Idlib a “breeding ground for terrorists.”

Despite the cease-fire deal, Turkey has been unable to neutralize the extremists. Much of Idlib has come under the control of HTS, which has defeated Turkey-backed armed groups.

Emre Ersan, an associate professor of international relations and political science at Istanbul’s Marmara University, believes Turkey may have overestimated its influence over HTS. He says Turkey’s plan to split the group, with some of its members joining Turkish-backed opposition forces and the group’s hard-liners isolated, has not worked.

Instead of coming under the umbrella of moderate groups, HTS has used Turkey as leverage against Russia and Assad-supporter Iran, according to Ersan.

Adding to the risks, Turkish troops are in the line of fire. Two Turkish soldiers were wounded in early May in a Syrian regime artillery attack on an observation post. Three other attacks have been cited by Turkey’s official Anadolu Agency, raising the question if the attacks were accidental or designed to pressure Ankara with Russia’s knowledge.

“The Turkish Armed Forces will not take a single step back from where it is,” Akar, Turkey’s defense minister, said last week.

Erdogan and Putin have talked on the phone, agreeing to continue working along the lines of the cease-fire agreement to prevent civilian deaths and a refugee flow. They also agreed to meet on the sidelines of next month’s Group of 20 conference in Japan.

“Apart from this dialogue and cooperation, there is nothing on the ground that can prevent a catastrophe in Idlib,” Ersan says.

The presidents have become close since 2016, rebuilding their relations after a dramatic crisis in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian jet near the Syrian border. Their rapport comes amid Turkey’s fragile relations with NATO ally US, especially over Washington’s support of Syrian Kurdish-led forces who control large swaths in eastern Syria. Ankara considers them an extension of a Kurdish insurgency operating inside Turkey.

Erdogan is so far sticking to his promise to buy Russian-made S-400 missiles despite US warnings the system would jeopardize Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program and compromise its safety. Stein calls this “a big win for Russia.” Turkey is angling for a way to have both the S-400s and the F-35s.

Turkey is also talking with the US about a safe zone in northeastern Syria and has repeatedly asked for the US to end its military support for Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF. Erdogan will meet US President Donald Trump at the G-20 as well.

Ersan believes Russia may allow Turkey to grab the northern town of Tel Rifaat from the Kurdish fighters, the last town they control in western Syria. Russian support could help Turkey put pressure on the SDF, widen Turkish influence and strengthen its hand in ongoing negotiations with the US

In exchange, he argues, Turkey could be open to some limited Syrian operation toward Idlib.

 

(With AP)

 


’Shaking with cold’: tourists from Egypt boat sinking brought ashore

Updated 20 sec ago
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’Shaking with cold’: tourists from Egypt boat sinking brought ashore

  • Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives
CAIRO: Egypt released video footage Wednesday of the latest tourists rescued from a boat that capsized off the country’s Red Sea coast, where at least four people lost their lives.
Seven people remain missing more than two days after the “Sea Story” was struck by a wave and overturned in the middle of the night.
The vessel had set off Sunday from Port Ghalib, near Marsa Alam in the southeast, on a multi-day diving trip with 31 tourists — mostly Europeans, along with Chinese and US nationals — and a 13-member crew.
Thirty-three were rescued, including tourists seen in the video stepping off a speedboat, draped in blankets, at a marina near Marsa Alam.
“We were shaking with cold,” one unidentified man said in the footage.
The tourists who appeared in the video had spent at least 24 hours inside a cabin of the overturned vessel before rescuers found them Tuesday morning, according to a government source close to the rescue operations.
A military-led team on Tuesday rescued two Belgians, one Swiss national, one Finnish tourist and one Egyptian, authorities said.
Two survivors — one identified by authorities on camera as an Egyptian — were rolled out on stretchers, one of them conscious and speaking.
A Belgian tourist sobbed when she was greeted by an Egyptian general.
Red Sea governor Amr Hanafi said the boat capsized “suddenly and quickly within five-seven minutes” after being struck by a strong wave in the middle of the night, leaving some passengers unable to escape their cabins.
The Sea Story had been due to dock on Friday at the tourist resort of Hurghada, about 200 kilometers (124 miles) north of Marsa Alam.
Authorities in Egypt have said the vessel was fully licensed and had passed all inspection checks. A preliminary investigation showed no technical fault.
There were at least two similar boat accidents in the Marsa Alam area earlier this year. There were no fatalities.
The Red Sea coast is a major tourist destination in Egypt.
Dozens of dive boats crisscross between Red Sea coral reefs and islands off Egypt’s eastern coast every day, where safety regulations are robust but unevenly enforced.

World reacts to Lebanon war ceasefire

Updated 4 min 22 sec ago
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World reacts to Lebanon war ceasefire

PARIS: World leaders have welcomed a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which came into force on Wednesday morning (0200 GMT).

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will protect Israel from the threat of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and create the conditions for a “lasting calm,” US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said ahead of the truce coming into force.
“The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon, and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” the leaders said in a joint statement.
The United States and France will work “to ensure this arrangement is fully implemented” and lead international efforts for “capacity-building” of the Lebanese army, they added.
Biden welcomed the deal as “good news” and also said the US would lead a fresh effort to secure a truce between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
Macron said the Lebanon ceasefire should “open the path” for an ending to the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the US president for his “involvement in securing the ceasefire agreement.”
He told Biden in a call that he appreciated the US leader’s “understanding that Israel will maintain its freedom of action in enforcing it,” according to Netanyahu’s office.
Ahead of Israel’s approval of the deal, Netanyahu said the “length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon” and the truce would allow Israel to “intensify” pressure on Hamas and focus on the “Iranian threat.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the ceasefire was a “fundamental step” toward restoring stability in the region.
Thanking France and the US for their involvement, Mikati also reiterated his government’s commitment to “strengthen the army’s presence in the south.”
Iran, a backer of both Hezbollah and Hamas, welcomed the end of Israel’s “aggression” in Lebanon, after the ceasefire came into force.
“Welcoming the news” of the end of Israel’s “aggression against Lebanon,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, stressing Iran’s “firm support for the Lebanese government, nation and resistance.”

Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the group “appreciates” Lebanon’s right to reach an agreement that protects its people, and it hopes for a deal to end the war in Gaza.

“Hamas appreciates the right of Lebanon and Hezbollah to reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon and we hope that this agreement will pave the way to reaching an agreement that ends the war of genocide against our people in Gaza,” Abu Zuhri told Reuters.
China said it was “paying close attention to the current situation in Lebanon and Israel.”
“We support all efforts conducive to easing tensions and achieving peace and welcome the agreement reached by relevant parties on a ceasefire,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed the deal, hailing it as “a ray of hope for the entire region.”
“People on both sides of the border want to live in genuine and lasting security,” Baerbock said, calling the deal “a success for diplomacy.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer praised a “long overdue” ceasefire that would “provide some measure of relief to the civilian populations” of both Israel and Lebanon.
Calling for the truce to be “turned into a lasting political solution in Lebanon,” Starmer vowed to be at the “forefront of efforts to break the ongoing cycle of violence in pursuit of a long-term, sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed the “very encouraging news” of the ceasefire, saying it would increase Lebanon’s “internal security and stability.”
The announcement was welcome news “first and foremost for the Lebanese and Israeli people affected by the fighting,” Von der Leyen said.
“Lebanon will have an opportunity to increase internal security and stability thanks to Hezbollah’s reduced influence,” she said.
A top UN official welcomed the ceasefire agreement, but warned that “considerable work lies ahead” to implement the deal.
“Nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of both parties is required,” said UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.

Jordan said the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah should prompt greater international efforts to bring an end to the war in Gaza.
In an official statement, the kingdom said the move was also a first step towards reversing a dangerous escalation of tensions across the region that had threatened peace and security.

Iraq welcomed the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, calling on the international community to act urgently to end Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza.
A foreign ministry statement called for “multiplying international efforts to avoid any new escalation” along the Israel-Lebanon border, while also urging “serious, urgent steps to stop the continued massacres and violations against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.”

Turkey said that it was ready to give Lebanon the “necessary support for the establishment of internal peace” hours after a ceasefire with Israel came into force.


Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say

Updated 27 November 2024
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Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip leave 15 dead, medics say

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip killed 15 people on Wednesday, some of them in a school housing displaced people, medics in Gaza said, adding that the fatalities included two sons of a former Hamas spokesman.
Health officials in the Hamas-run enclave said eight Palestinians were killed and dozens of others wounded in an Israeli strike that hit the Al-Tabeaeen School, which was sheltering displaced families in Gaza City. Among those killed were two sons of former Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, according to medics and Barhoum himself.
In the Shejaia suburb of Gaza City, another strike killed four people, while three people were killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya on the northern edge of the enclave where army forces have been operating since last month.
Separately, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the US and France, a rare victory for diplomacy in a region shaken by two wars for over a year.
Iran-backed Hezbollah militants began firing missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group attacked Israel in October of 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing over 250 hostages, Israel has said, triggering the Gaza war.
Israel’s 13-month campaign in Gaza has left nearly 44,200 people dead and displaced nearly all the enclave’s population at least once, according to Gaza health officials.
Months of attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have yielded scant progress and negotiations are now on hold, with mediator Qatar saying it has told the two warring parties it would suspend its efforts until the sides are prepared to make concessions.
US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday his administration was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and that it was possible that Saudi Arabia and Israel could normalize relations.


Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone

Updated 27 November 2024
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Israeli military says it fired to stop suspects reaching Lebanon no-go zone

DUBAI: Israeli forces on Wednesday fired at several vehicles with suspects to prevent them from reaching a no-go zone in Lebanese territory and the suspects moved away, the Israeli military said in a statement, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT.


Hezbollah says launched drones ahead of ceasefire at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv

Updated 27 November 2024
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Hezbollah says launched drones ahead of ceasefire at ‘sensitive military targets’ in Tel Aviv

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched drones at “sensitive military targets” in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening, after deadly Israeli strikes in Beirut and as news of a ceasefire deal was announced.
“In response to the targeting of the capital Beirut and the massacres committed by the Israeli enemy against civilians,” Hezbollah launched “drones at a group of sensitive military targets in the city of Tel Aviv and its suburbs,” the group said in a statement.