PARIS: Tepid growth in demand for oil along with ample supplies from non-OPEC countries will complicate efforts by the group and its allies to boost prices, the IEA said in a report Friday.
The focus in oil markets in recent months and days has been on supply issues — from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz — which has helped OPEC and its allies, which are often called OPEC+, in their efforts to prop up prices by cutting back output.
But the International Energy Agency said that now “the main focus is on oil demand as economic sentiment weakens.”
It cited data that world trade growth has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis a decade ago amidst the burgeoning US trade wars, which have already begun to have an impact on demand for oil.
In the first three months of this year global demand for oil rose only by a meagre 300,000 barrels per day, the lowest quarterly increase in nearly eight years.
While there were some idiosyncratic factors such as weather, the IEA said “the worsening trade outlook (was) a common theme across all regions.”
The IEA cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year for the second month straight and trimmed its second quarter forecast as well.
While in its first estimates for 2020 the IEA sees oil demand accelerating, this is more than matched by output gains from nations outside OPEC+.
It put the increase of non-OPEC supplies at 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2020 while global demand is seen as increasing by 1.4 mbd. In 2019, the 1.9 mbd increase in non-OPEC supplies is also expected to outweigh the 1.1 mbd increase in demand.
“A clear message from our first look at 2020 is that there is plenty of non-OPEC supply growth available to meet any likely level of demand...” said the IEA.
“This is welcome news for consumers and the wider health of the currently vulnerable global economy, as it will limit significant upward pressure on oil prices,” said the Paris-based institution that provides advice to oil-consuming nations.
The data comes as ministers from the OPEC+ nations are due to meet later this month to debate whether to continue their production restraints.
With the IEA saying its forecast “means the tightening of oil markets could prove short lived,” OPEC+ nations may have to consider stepping up their cuts to maintain leverage on prices.
While the IEA added the caveat that its outlook assumes no major geopolitical shock, it also noted that OPEC countries have ample spare production capacity thanks to the cuts they have implemented.
The IEA’s latest monthly report comes a day after attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, which caused oil prices to briefly shoot more than four percent higher, in the second spate of incidents in a month in the strategic shipping lane.
With some 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a disruption to shipping could roil markets.
The attacks come amid rising tensions between Tehran and Washington as the US has intensified sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
The IEA said that the US sanctions have not yet completely cut off Iranian oil exports, but they have fallen drastically.
Iran’s crude production fell 210,000 barrels to 2.4 mbd in May when exports plunged by 480,000 to 810,000 barrels per day as Washington pulled the last waivers for other nations to buy Iranian oil. That export level is less than a third of what it was exporting a year ago.
The IEA added it was becoming increasingly difficult to determine where Iranian oil was being shipped as Iran’s national oil company shut off satellite tracking systems on its ships.
Ample non-OPEC supplies and weak demand a bane to oil prices: energy watchdog
Ample non-OPEC supplies and weak demand a bane to oil prices: energy watchdog
- The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year for the second month straight
Saudi bank loans reach highest growth rate in 19 months, surpassing $761bn
RIYADH: Saudi bank loans reached SR2.85 trillion ($760.84 billion) in September, representing an annual growth rate of 12.16 percent — the highest in 19 months, according to recent data.
Figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, showed that corporate lending dominated the sector, making up around 53.5 percent, with individual loans comprising the remaining figure.
The former category grew by 15.75 percent, outpacing the 8.3 percent annual growth in personal loans, underscoring the increasing demand for business financing across key sectors.
Real estate activities led corporate lending, accounting for 20.37 percent of all business loans and growing by 28.63 percent to reach SR310.83 billion.
The wholesale and retail trade sector followed, constituting 13.07 percent of these loans, with SR199.45 billion in financing. Lending to manufacturing came third, making up 11.78 percent, totaling SR179.83 billion.
Loans to the electricity, gas, and water supply sectors accounted for 11.25 percent of total lending, amounting to SR171.62 billion. This category experienced a growth rate of 29.35 percent.
While professional, scientific, and technical activities represented a small portion of total corporate loans at just 0.63 percent, they posted the highest annual growth rate of 79.6 percent, amounting to SR9.69 billion.
In September, Saudi banks’ loans-to-deposits ratio slightly declined to 79.66 percent, down from 79.71 percent in the same month of 2023, as per data from the SAMA.
The calculation includes loans minus provisions and commissions, providing a clearer view of actual lending capacity.
SAMA has set a regulatory limit of 90 percent for loans-to-deposits ratios, balancing banks’ lending capacity with liquidity stability while supporting economic growth through corporate and individual borrowing.
Compared to other GCC nations, such as the UAE where loans-to-deposits ratios can exceed 100 percent, SAMA’s cap reflects a more cautious approach, prioritizing liquidity stability in the banking sector.
Corporate real estate lending in Saudi Arabia has surged as banks align with Vision 2030’s targets for urban expansion, economic diversification, and investment attraction.
This focus on real estate as the largest component of corporate lending is supported by robust demand for infrastructure, from commercial and residential developments to giga-projects like NEOM and the Red Sea.
Riyadh is a key beneficiary, attracting regional and international companies, which has increased the need for high-quality office spaces.
The office market in the Saudi capital has seen a boost from the Regional Headquarters Program, drawing numerous global companies seeking a central base in the Middle East.
The government’s recent regulatory advancements are also pivotal in driving this lending trend. With improved transparency and a structured land registry, investors and developers now have greater confidence in the market.
The General Authority for Statistics recently reported a 2.6 percent annual rise in the real estate price index in the third quarter of this year, highlighting demand for residential and commercial spaces.
Major cities like Jeddah and Riyadh have seen considerable price increases in both land and building categories, driven by strong demand across residential, office, and mixed-use spaces.
The Real Estate General Authority anticipates that Saudi Arabia’s property market, one of the Middle East’s fastest-growing sectors, will reach a market volume of $69.51 billion in 2024 and $101.62 billion by 2029, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 8 percent.
Catalyzing growth in sectors under Vision 2030
Saudi Arabia’s scientific, professional, and technical services sector is driven by a rapid expansion of research, development, and innovation.
The launch of the Saudi Minds Platform by the Research, Development, and Innovation Authority in October is playing a key role in this shift.
This platform creates an advanced digital environment to support the RDI ecosystem, providing resources to researchers, innovators, and institutions.
By promoting knowledge exchange, international collaboration, and access to funding, the platform fosters a thriving scientific landscape, which, in turn, stimulates demand for financial services, driving lending growth in this sector.
As Saudi Arabia intensifies its efforts toward Vision 2030, investments in innovation and technology are expected to continue to fuel further growth in the RDI-driven economic landscape.
Startup Wrap – Saudi VC space continues to play pivotal role in SMEs growth as Biban 24 delivers deals
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s venture capital ecosystem continues to boost the regional startup space, with one company plowing $20 million into the early stage-focused Booster IV fund.
Saudi Venture Capital Co. announced it was pouring the money into the fund, which is managed by Beco Capital and focuses on investments across the Gulf region.
Booster IV aims to support high-growth or disruptive startups, targeting companies from the seed stage up to series A.
The fund’s investment strategy spans various sectors with a strong emphasis on Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf region, and currently oversees $495 million in assets across four funds.
“Our investment in Booster IV, managed by Beco Capital, aligns with our fund investment program and our strategy to support funds that back early stage startups in Saudi Arabia,” said Nabeel Koshak, CEO and board member of SVC.
Established in 2018, SVC is a subsidiary of the SME Bank, part of Saudi Arabia’s National Development Fund.
The company is dedicated to stimulating and sustaining financing for startups and small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting them from the pre-seed stage up to pre-IPO through funding and co-investments in high-potential startups.
Saudi’s BIM Ventures and Japan’s SBI Holdings launch $2bn-targeted BIM Capital
Saudi Arabia-based venture studio BIM Ventures and Japan’s SBI Holdings have launched a joint venture aiming to drive growth across Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East.
BIM Capital’s investment strategy spans private equity, venture capital, debt funds, and real estate development, with a target of attracting over $200 million in foreign direct investment and managing assets exceeding $2 billion.
The firm will leverage its expertise to identify high-growth sectors, with a particular emphasis on technology ventures, emerging industries, and real estate development, offering investors access to innovative, transformative opportunities.
Mush Social raises $1.2m in pre-seed funding led by Nifal Consulting
Saudi-based Mush Social has closed a $1.2 million pre-seed funding round led by Nifal Consulting, with support from Nahr Al-Jazeera Holding and angel investors.
Founded in 2022 by Abdulhadi Al-Asmi, Mush Social operates a social platform where users can earn points and own virtual assets through its interactive map feature, potentially monetizing their online interactions.
The funds will support the development of advanced technologies to enhance user value from their engagements on the platform.
Ayen acquires Egyptian contech Elmawkaa in seven-figure deal
Saudi property tech company Ayen has acquired Egyptian construction technology firm Elmawkaa in a seven-figure Saudi riyal transaction.
Founded in 2018 by Abdulrahman Al-Mulqi, Ali Al-Mohsen, and Aymen Al-Sarory, Ayen provides data-driven property evaluation solutions.
The acquisition will integrate Elmawkaa’s construction materials marketplace into Ayen’s platform, strengthening its market position across the Gulf Cooperation Council region.
Elmawkaa, established in 2017, offers a digital marketplace for competitive quotations on building materials, aimed at streamlining procurement for construction companies.
Aramco Ventures backs IOTA Software’s $10.4m series A2 round
Aramco Ventures has joined a $10.4 million Series A2 funding round for IOTA Software, a cloud-native platform for industrial performance optimization, led by Altira Group with participation from Oxy Technology Ventures and Second Avenue Partners.
The funds will enable IOTA to expand its engineering, product, and customer success teams, enhance its technology infrastructure, and strengthen marketing efforts. IOTA’s platform aggregates business and operations data to aid decision-making across industrial sectors.
Warburg AI secures $250k in seed funding for financial AI solutions
UAE-based Warburg AI has raised $250,000 in seed funding from undisclosed investors.
Founded in 2024 by Ben Pfeffer, Lancelot De Briey, and Madiyar Ismagulov, Warburg AI develops adaptive artificial intelligence and machine learning tools for financial institutions, with a focus on algorithmic trading, real-time risk management, and asset optimization.
The capital will be directed toward product development and expansion of its customer solutions team.
Brands.io raises seed funding to expand AI-focused domain services
UAE’s Brands.io, an AI-driven domain name provider, has raised an undisclosed amount in seed funding from unnamed investors.
Founded in 2024 by Chetan Gera, Brands.io offers customized domain names tailored for AI companies.
The investment will fuel platform development, add technical features, and support the company’s expansion into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, with a strong focus on strengthening its GCC presence.
NorthLadder raises $10m in series B for expansion in pre-owned electronics market
UAE-based NorthLadder, a trade-in platform for pre-owned electronics, has raised $10 million in a Series B funding round led by stc Group’s corporate venture capital arm, tali ventures, with additional contributions from the Dutch Founders Fund and Crescent Ventures.
Founded in 2021 by Mihin Shah and Sandeep Shetty, NorthLadder offers a secure platform for reselling pre-owned devices, addressing growing demand in this sector.
With the new capital, NorthLadder plans to enhance its technology and expand its presence, particularly in Europe.
CE-Ventures co-leads $10m funding round for CrossBridge Bio’s cancer therapies
UAE-based CE-Ventures, the corporate venture capital arm of Crescent Enterprises, has co-led a $10 million funding round for CrossBridge Bio, a Houston-based biotech firm focused on developing dual-payload antibody drug conjugates for targeted cancer treatments.
The round also included participation from TMC Venture Fund, Portal Innovations, Alexandria Ventures, and several pre-seed investors.
The investment will support the advancement of CrossBridge Bio’s lead candidate, CBB-120, which targets solid tumors.
Additionally, the funding will enable the company to expand its pipeline of dual-payload ADCs and further develop its proprietary linker technology, which it claims could bring a new level of precision to cancer therapy.
Saudi Arabia’s signature startup event Biban 24 sees deals to support SMEs
Biban 24, Saudi Arabia’s premier event for startups and SMEs, saw over $5 billion in agreements and financing initiatives signed during the first three days.
Organized by the General Authority for Small and Medium Enterprises, or Monsha’at, the Riyadh-based forum secured more than 40 agreements and numerous financing portfolios aimed at bolstering Saudi Arabia’s SME sector in alignment with Vision 2030 goals.
These deals, amounting to more than SR18 billion ($4.79 billion) on the first day, SR1.35 billion on the second, and SR580 million on day three, included partnerships with leading Saudi banks, international memoranda of understanding, and investment opportunities designed to enhance access to funding and expand support networks for SMEs.
The event, themed “A Global Destination for Opportunities,” underscores Monsha’at’s commitment to creating a conducive environment for SMEs to thrive, positioning them as key drivers of economic diversification.
Saudi Central Bank lowers benchmark rate by 25 bps following US Fed decision
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s central bank has implemented its second interest rate reduction of 2024, lowering the benchmark by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent.
This adjustment mirrors the recent US Federal Reserve decision, which also cut rates by the same amount to a target of 4.5 - 4.75 percent.
In a statement, the central bank – also known as SAMA – said: “In light of global developments, and in accordance with the Central Bank’s objective of maintaining monetary stability, it has decided to reduce the Repurchase Agreement rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and the Reverse Repurchase Agreement rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent.”
Unlike the higher September cut of 50 basis points, this move is a strategic recalibration of monetary policy, aimed at easing high borrowing costs that have been sustained to combat inflation over the past two years.
Gulf Cooperation Council central banks align interest rates with the US Federal Reserve due to their currency pegs to the dollar, despite having stable inflation rates.
Both the UAE and Bahrain reduced rates by 25 basis points, while Qatar opted for a slightly larger 30-point cut.
Kuwait, however, took a different approach. Its central bank, which pegs its currency to a basket, rather than exclusively to the dollar, lowered rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 percent but did not announce further cuts in November as of date.
Over the past two years, the US Federal Reserve has aggressively tightened its monetary policy to tackle inflation, driving up interest rates in an effort to bring prices down.
Although inflation has made progress toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, it remains slightly elevated, and high costs persist for consumers.
The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with unemployment inching up but still at low levels. The Fed’s ongoing challenge is balancing inflation control with the need to maintain a healthy, resilient job market.
The decision to cut interest rates could have far-reaching implications for the GCC, particularly for Saudi Arabia’s economy.
The Kingdom’s non-oil sectors, already a key focus under Vision 2030, stand to benefit significantly from the influx of cheaper credit.
Sectors such as construction, real estate, and services, which have seen substantial growth, are expected to experience further acceleration.
Lower borrowing costs could spur investments in infrastructure and technology, both vital to the Kingdom’s diversification away from oil.
Corporate lending is also expected to see a boost, with businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like real estate, poised to take advantage of more affordable financing.
This could translate into more ambitious expansion plans, particularly for projects aligned with Vision 2030 goals, such as NEOM and the Red Sea Project.
The real estate market in particular could see a further surge as cheaper credit fuels demand for housing.
Riyadh’s growing population and influx of expatriates are likely to drive this trend, with lower interest rates making mortgages more affordable.
Oil Updates – prices fall as Hurricane Rafael expected to start weakening
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as the risk that a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will significantly affect US oil and gas output declined, while the market weighs how President-elect Donald Trump’s policies might affect supplies.
Brent crude oil futures fell 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.16 per barrel by 7:46 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 55 cents or 0.8 percent to $71.81. The benchmarks fell after rising nearly 1 percent on Thursday.
For the week, Brent is set to gain 3.1 percent while WTI is set to rise 4.1 percent
Hurricane Rafael, which has caused 391,214 barrels per day of US crude oil production to be shut, is expected to move slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico and away from US fields while forecast to weaken from Friday and through the weekend, the US National Hurricane Center said.
Prices gained support on Thursday on expected actions by the incoming Trump administration such as tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could limit their supply to global markets.
“Our core view sees Trump adopt a relatively pragmatic approach to policy, in which he either chooses not to pursue more radical policy shifts, or is held back by institutional constraints or the influence of more moderate policy advisers,” BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note on Friday.
Downward pressure came from data showing crude imports in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, fell 9 percent in October, the sixth consecutive month showing a year-on-year decline, as well as from a rise in US crude inventories.
“The impact (of the Trump administration) on oil market fundamentals in 2025 will likely be somewhat limited,” BMI said.
Closing Bell: GCC stock markets up in wake of Trump’s election win
RIYADH: Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, stock markets across the Gulf Cooperation Council saw a strong rally.
Markets posted gains, with Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index finishing 0.31 percent up to close at 12,130.80 points on Thursday. This came after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump on winning the election in a phone call on Wednesday, according to the Saudi News Agency.
Dubai’s Financial Market mirrored the upward momentum, climbing 0.60 percent. Abu Dhabi’s Securities Exchange also saw a lift, finishing the day up 0.44 percent.
Bahrain’s Bourse recorded a rise of 0.52 percent, while Kuwait’s main market similarly rose, closing with a 0.10 percent gain.
However, the Muscat Securities Market in Oman saw a 0.17 percent decrease, while the Qatar Stock Exchange was closed for a public holiday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index on TASI was SR7.53 billion ($2 billion) as 113 of the listed stocks advanced, while 111 retreated.
Similarly, the MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 2.03 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 1,521.79.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also climbed by 415.36 points, or 1.44 percent, to close at 29,269.00. This comes as 49 of the listed stocks advanced while as many as 22 retreated.
The best-performing stock of the day was Rasan Information Technology Co., whose share price surged by 7.13 percent to SR78.10.
Other top performers include Miahona Co., and Theeb Rent a Car Co., with Miahona’s share price climbing 6.75 percent to SR29.25 and Theeb’s rising 6.59 percent to SR79.30.
Naseej International Trading Co. and Al Moammar Information Systems Co. also posted rises.
The worst performer was Saudi Arabian Mining Co., whose share price dropped by 4.09 percent to SR53.90.
Other worst performers were Abdulmohsen Alhokair Group for Tourism and Development, whose share price fell by 3.18 percent to SR2.74, and ACWA Power Co., which saw a 2.95 percent drop to SR441.20.
On an announcement front, ACWA Power Co. announced its results for interim financial results for the first nine months of 2024, ending on Sept. 30, with revenues surging by 13.3 percent to reach SR1.74 billion, compared to SR1.542 billion in 2023.
The increase was primarily driven by higher revenue from electricity sales, operation and maintenance services, and additional income from development projects and construction management, the company said on Tadawul.
BinDawood Holding Co. also disclosed its financial results for the third quarter, with revenues slightly increasing by 0.189 percent to reach SR1.361 compared to the same quarter last year.
The company closed Thursday’s trading session at SR7.02, a 0.29 percent increase.
Saudi Steel Pipe Co. also released its financial results for the nine months of the year, recording SR381 million in revenues, a 20.18 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
The company closed today’s trading session at SR71.40, decreasing by 1.27 percent.
The United International Transportation Co. disclosed a 37.052 percent increase in revenues for the first nine months to reach SR505.8 million, compared to SR369.07 million during the same period last year.
This was primarily driven by the expansion of a long-term lease fleet and the resulting higher lease revenues.
The company closed at SR84, with its stock valie declining by 1.55 percent.
