TEHRAN: As the US piles sanction after sanction on Iran, it’s the average person who feels it the most.
From a subway performer’s battered leather hat devoid of tips, to a bride-to-be’s empty purse, the lack of cash from the economic pressure facing Iran’s 80 million people can be seen everywhere.
Many blame President Donald Trump and his maximalist policy on Iran, which has seen him pull out of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and levy punishing US sanctions on the country.
In recent weeks, Iran has threatened to break out of the deal unless European powers mitigate what it calls Trump’s “economic warfare.” Iran also appeared ready to push back against the buildup of US forces in the region, after shooting down an American drone it says violated its airspace last week.
In response, US officials have vowed to pile on more sanctions.
But alongside Trump, many Iranians blame their own government, which has careened from one economic disaster to another since its Islamic Revolution 40 years ago.
“The economic war is a reality and people are under extreme pressure,” said Shiva Keshavarz, a 22-year-old accountant soon to be married.
She said government leaders “keep telling us to be strong and endure the pressures, but we can already hear the sound of our bones breaking.”
Walking by any money exchange shop is a dramatic reminder of the hardships most people are facing. At the time of the nuclear deal, Iran’s currency traded at 32,000 rials to $1. Today, the numbers listed in exchange shop windows have skyrocketed — it costs over 130,000 rials for one US dollar.
Inflation is over 37%, according to government statistics. More than 3 million people, or 12 percent of working-age citizens, are unemployed. That rate doubles for educated youth.
Depreciation and inflation make everything more expensive — from fruits and vegetables to tires and oil, all the way to the big-ticket items, like mobile phones. A simple cell phone is about two months’ salary for the average government worker, while a single iPhone costs a 10 months’ salary.
“When importing mobile phones into the country is blocked, dealers have to smuggle them in with black market dollar rates and sell them for expensive prices,” said Pouria Hassani, a mobile phone salesman in Tehran. “You can’t expect us to buy expensive and sell cheap to customers. We don’t want to make a loss either.”
Hossein Rostami, a 33-year-old motorbike taxi driver and deliveryman, said the price of brake pads alone had jumped fivefold.
“The cause of our problems is the officials’ incompetence,” he told The Associated Press as fellow motorbike drivers called out for passengers in Tehran. “Our country is full of wealth and riches.”
The riches part is true — Iran is home to the world’s fourth-largest proven reserve of crude oil and holds the world’s second-largest proven reserve of natural gas, after Russia.
But under Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign, the US has cut off Iran’s ability to sell crude on the global market, and threatened to sanction any nation that purchases it. Oil covers a third of the $80 billion a year the government spends in Iran, meaning that a fall in oil revenues cuts into its social welfare programs, as well as its military expenditures.
The rest of the country’s budget comes from taxes and non-oil exports, among them oil-based petrochemical products that provide up to 50 percent of Iran’s $45 billion in non-oil export.
In Tehran’s Laleh park, retired school teacher Zahra Ghasemi criticized the government for blaming “every problem” on US sanctions.
She says she has trouble paying for her basic livelihood. The price of a bottle of milk has doubled, along with that of vegetables and fruit.
“We are dying under these pressures and a lack of solutions from officials,” Ghasemi said.
Years of popular frustration with failed economic policies triggered protests in late 2017, which early the following year spiraled into anti-government demonstrations across dozens of cities and towns.
The current problems take root in Iran’s faltering efforts to privatize its state-planned economy after the devastating war with Iraq in the 1980s, which saw 1 million people killed.
But Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said earlier this month that the crunch on oil exports hitting harder today than during the 1980s war, when Saddam Hussein’s forces targeted Iran’s oil trade.
“Our situation is worse than during the war,” Zanganeh said. “We did not have such an export problem when Saddam was targeting our industrial units. Now, we cannot export oil labeled Iran.”
Still, many Iranians pin the economic crisis on corruption as much as anything else.
“Our problem is the embezzlers and thieves in the government,” said Nasrollah Pazouki, who has sold clothes in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar since before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “When people come to power, instead of working sincerely and seriously for the people, we hear and read after a few months in newspapers that they have stolen billions and fled.”
He added: “Whose money is that? It’s the people’s money.”
Sanctions do cause some of the problems, said Jafar Mousavi, who runs a dry-goods store in Tehran. But many of the woes are self-inflicted from rampant graft, he said.
“The economic war is not from outside of our borders but within the country,” Mousavi said. “If there was integrity among our government, producers and people, we could have overcome the pressures.”
Yet people come and go each day to work on Tehran’s crowded metro, seemingly earning less each day for the same work. In one train car, Abbas Feayouji and his son Rahmat play mournful-sounding traditional love songs known as “Sultan-e Ghalbha,” or “King of Hearts” in Farsi.
“People pay less than before,” said the elder Feayouji, a 47-year-old father of three, as he took a short break to speak to the AP. “I don’t know why they do, but it shows people have less money than before.”
Iranians say their ‘bones breaking’ under US sanctions
Iranians say their ‘bones breaking’ under US sanctions
- More than 12 percent of working-age citizens are unemployed
- A third of Iran’s national spending comes from oil revenues
BNPL emerges as the preferred payment option for Saudi consumers
RIYADH: The fintech landscape in Saudi Arabia is rapidly transforming daily financial practices, with buy now, pay later services gaining significant popularity. This shift is simplifying access to flexible payment options, reshaping how people manage their finances and make purchases across the nation.
According to a recent report from leading BNPL provider Tabby, 77 percent of Saudi consumers now use BNPL for essential purchases.
Data from Tabby shows that first-time BNPL transactions are twice as likely to be for necessary items rather than discretionary ones, with education and medical expenses at the forefront. This indicates that a large portion of BNPL usage is dedicated to essential transactions rather than non-essential wants.
Tabby’s data also reveals that the average value of essential purchases made through BNPL is higher than that of discretionary spending. This suggests that while consumers are prioritizing needs, BNPL offers an accessible and affordable way to purchase high-value necessities, such as insurance and home goods.
Impact of BNPL
By allowing payments to be spread over an extended period, BNPL has revolutionized shopping habits. Not only does it provide consumers with more control over their finances, but it also alters their relationship with businesses.
In an interview with Arab News, Tarabut CEO Abdulla Al-Moayed explained that the rise of BNPL among Saudi consumers can be attributed to several factors.
“BNPL’s interest-free installment structure makes it an attractive and Shariah-compliant payment option for many Saudi consumers — a positive shift from traditional credit cards or loans,” he said.
“Because BNPL offers a low-barrier alternative to traditional credit, it doesn’t require a high credit score or lengthy approval process, making it accessible to a wider population, particularly younger and lower-income individuals. The ease of using BNPL through mobile apps and online platforms also aligns well with a generation that values convenience and speed,” Al-Moayed added.
He also pointed out that the supportive regulatory environment in Saudi Arabia has fueled the rapid growth of fintech solutions, leading to the emergence of various local BNPL providers. This increased competition has ultimately led to better services and offerings for consumers.
Arjun Vir Singh, partner and global head of fintech at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little, offered another perspective on the surge in BNPL adoption. He noted that the e-commerce boom, accelerated by COVID-19, has significantly driven the growth of BNPL among consumers. Singh also emphasized the growing convergence of online and offline shopping experiences.
“As customers’ journeys and payment methods in-store and offline become increasingly digital, we expect BNPL adoption to expand into this segment as well,” he said.
Singh further explained that digital payments, seamless integration, merchant sponsorship, and the rising cost of living have all contributed to BNPL’s rapid growth.
BNPL vs. traditional credit
Singh noted that BNPL is beginning to disrupt traditional credit models in consumer finance, a trend that is expected to expand as BNPL adoption spreads across sectors like travel, real estate, and automotive. “Arguably, the biggest impact will come if BNPL successfully expands into the B2B credit and financing segment,” he stated.
Singh also highlighted that banks and credit card companies are already responding to the rise of BNPL by adjusting their consumer finance offerings. Many are now partnering with BNPL providers or collaborating with major players like Visa and Mastercard, which are concerned about losing consumer spending. Some banks are even developing their own flexible payment solutions that mimic the BNPL model.
For Al-Moayed, the simplicity, transparency, and digitalization of consumer credit will force traditional credit models to adapt.
“Traditional credit models that rely on rigorous background checks and higher entry barriers need to evolve quickly while still managing risk effectively, in order to appeal to a broader consumer base and offer more flexible, secure, and customer-friendly credit options,” he said.
He also emphasized the role of Open Banking in this evolution, saying it could revolutionize credit risk management by utilizing real-time and historical behavioral data. “Open Banking has the potential to make a significant impact by giving lenders more agile and secure access to data, enabling personalized credit solutions,” Al-Moayed added.
As BNPL expands consumer spending power, he believes that as the market matures, empowered consumers will become more financially literate, leading to better-informed financial decisions.
“Open Banking will help by providing enriched data to improve insights into consumers’ financial health, preventing unsustainable debt,” he said.
Al-Moayed also pointed out that early adopters of Open Banking will gain a competitive edge by providing more intelligent financial services, better user experiences, and faster, more affordable options for all consumers.
Singh concurs, noting that as traditional players adjust to the changing landscape, innovation in consumer finance will continue to flourish. “This shift includes segmenting customers based on different criteria, using alternative data to enhance credit models, and adapting models to the nature of the spend. Innovation is also extending to customer service, not just credit models,” Singh said.
Merchants and BNPL
“Retailers have been the greatest sponsors of BNPL, helping to legitimize and drive the growth of e-commerce,” said Singh. This was initially true for e-commerce platforms, but as more retail experiences shift online, BNPL adoption among merchants has grown exponentially. “The adoption of digital payment solutions across all retail models is driving BNPL growth,” Singh added.
Arthur D. Little’s proprietary research has shown that merchants are seeing substantial benefits from BNPL, including increased average transaction values, more frequent purchases, access to new customers, and lower customer acquisition costs. Merchants also enjoy a differentiated offering compared to their competitors.
Al-Moayed agrees that BNPL offers numerous advantages for merchants but suggests that more value could be unlocked by leveraging the data collected on consumer behavior and spending patterns. “Merchants should explore how to use this valuable data to offer personalized promotions or product recommendations,” he said.
“Hyper-personalized sales and marketing will be key to increasing customer engagement and loyalty. This will soon be expected across the Kingdom’s retail market,” Al-Moayed added.
The future of BNPL
“Over the next few years, BNPL services will become even more integrated into the broader financial ecosystem, using Open Banking to enhance personalization and accessibility,” said Al-Moayed.
He also foresees the global adoption of big data and artificial intelligence further enhancing the BNPL customer experience. “We may see BNPL providers developing educational tools to help consumers manage their financial health effectively while using these services,” he added.
Singh, however, envisions a different future for BNPL. “BNPL will expand into the B2B segment, particularly as a tool to service underserved micro and small businesses,” he said.
Singh also predicts that AI, enhanced regulations, and market consolidation will all play crucial roles in BNPL’s future growth.
Saudi Arabia introduces new laws to streamline business registration and trade names
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s new regulations designed to streamline commercial registration and trade name processes have been described as a “game-changer” for entrepreneurs.
Approved in September, the laws are set to come into force in the coming weeks and aim to enhance business efficiency and improve the overall commercial environment.
Experts have told Arab News that the new regulations will help encourage small businesses, particularly those led by women — key components of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.
In the first quarter of 2024 alone, the trade sector saw 104,000 new commercial registrations, marking a 59 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. The Ministry of Commerce also issued 65,363 permits during this time last year.
When the changes were announced, Minister of Commerce Majid bin Abdullah Al-Qasabi said they were designed to simplify business operations by offering a unified national registration system.
Ryan Al-Nesayan, partner at business intelligence firm Arthur D. Little, hailed these regulations as a “game-changer,” stating that by simplifying and speeding up the registration process, the new laws eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks that previously slowed down business launches.
He told Arab News: “This is especially important for startups where every delay can cost momentum. Entrepreneurs can now get their ventures off the ground quickly, focusing on growth rather than navigating paperwork.”
Al-Nesayan noted that the sharp rise in business registrations is a clear indication that Saudi Arabia is becoming a magnet for entrepreneurial activity. He attributes this growth to the government’s focus on business-friendly reforms and Vision 2030 initiatives, which are creating a more streamlined business environment.
Notably, women received 44 percent of the new registrations in the first three months of 2024, underscoring a significant rise in female participation in the business world.
Al-Nesayan emphasized the importance of this statistic, pointing out that the new regulations are removing barriers that previously discouraged female entrepreneurs.
He added: “As the environment becomes more accessible, we’re likely to see continued growth in women-led businesses, which supports gender inclusivity in Saudi Arabia’s economic development.”
The introduction of these regulations brings the total number of commercial certificates issued across Saudi Arabia to over 1.45 million.
Jihad Chidiac, a Lebanon-based attorney, explained that the two new laws, the Commercial Registration Law and the Trade Names Law, are set to take effect 180 days after their publication in the official gazette, which is expected within the next few weeks.
These laws will fully replace older legislation, with the current Law of Commercial Register having been in effect since 1995 and the Trade Names Law issued in 1999.
According to Chidiac, the introduction of these two laws “comes in alignment with the recent legal reforms the Kingdom is undertaking, including the new Investment Law permitting full foreign ownership of companies, and the amendment of the Labor law, while having as the main goal the implementation of Vision 2030 and the attraction of foreign investments into the Kingdom.”
Chidiac further elaborated that the new Trade Names Law specifically enhances the legal protection of intellectual property, making it easier for businesses to reserve, transfer, and protect their trade names.
He noted that the new law “prohibits the registration of names similar to existing ones regardless of different business activities, and simplifies the transfer of trade name ownership without requiring the transfer of the entire business.”
This step, according to Chidiac, is aimed at reducing conflicts and enhancing fair competition by encouraging businesses to adopt unique, distinctive trade names.
The new laws also set guidelines for the resolution of disputes related to trade names and business registration.
Chidiac commented that the centralized electronic database for business and trade name registrations will reduce duplication, improve transparency, and promote uniformity across the Kingdom.
He explained that the improved registration processes and enhanced legal framework will likely prevent conflicts over similar trade names.
He also mentioned that Saudi Arabia’s legal system encourages alternative dispute resolution methods such as mediation and arbitration, which help reduce the burden on courts and offer flexible options for businesses involved in disputes.
According to Abdulrahman Al-Hussein, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, the new system is based on international best practices.
Arthur D. Little’s Al-Nesayan agreed, noting that the adoption of international best practices in the new registration system will make Saudi Arabia a more attractive market for foreign investors.
He explained: “The unified national registration system is a major win for both local and foreign businesses. It removes the complexity of dealing with multiple agencies and provides a one-stop platform for all business-related registrations.”
This, he added, signals a more predictable and transparent operating environment, aligning with global standards and making market entry far smoother for international companies.
The reforms also provide enhanced trade name protection, which Al-Nesayan highlighted as crucial for businesses looking to scale both domestically and internationally.
“In today’s market, a business’s brand is often one of its most valuable assets,” he said. “By ensuring stronger protection for trade names, companies can confidently invest in their brand, knowing it’s secure. Over time, this will build consumer trust, enhance market presence, and support long-term growth.”
For those with existing sub-registers, a five-year grace period is being offered to either transfer or cancel their registrations. Chidiac pointed out that while this grace period offers flexibility, it also raises challenges for businesses regarding the company’s history and anteriority, particularly if they opt to cancel their sub-registers.
He explained that companies must carefully consider the potential impact on their business identity when making decisions during this transition phase.
Alongside these changes, the cabinet also approved a new real estate transaction tax system and other related measures. Chidiac explained that the new real estate law replaces the previous 15 percent VAT on real estate sales with a 5 percent tax on property ownership transfers.
He noted that this reform will not only ease the financial burden on businesses but also attract local and foreign investment into the real estate sector.
Certain transactions, such as inheritance distribution and charitable transfers, are exempt from this tax, which Chidiac believes will stimulate increased activity in the real estate market.
Al-Nesayan also highlighted the significance of this new real estate transaction tax system, noting that it complements the broader business reforms by promoting a more structured and transparent property market.
He explained that such transparency is essential as Saudi Arabia grows as a business hub, stabilizing property markets and supporting broader economic diversification efforts.
Chidiac added that legal counsel will play a crucial role in helping businesses navigate the transitional period for the new regulations, particularly regarding the five-year grace period for existing registrations.
He emphasized the need for businesses to stay informed and seek professional advice to ensure compliance with the updated regulations.
Al-Nesayan echoed this sentiment, advising businesses to engage with legal and business advisory services early on to fully benefit from the streamlined processes.
He added: “Being agile in adapting to these reforms will give businesses a significant competitive edge in this evolving landscape.”
Egypt central bank keeps overnight interest rates steady
CAIRO: Egypt’s central bank kept its overnight interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, saying that while inflation was set to decelerate sharply in early 2025 it nonetheless remained high.
The bank’s monetary policy committee kept the lending rate at 28.25 percent and the deposit rate at 27.25 percent, it said in a statement.
The unanimous forecast in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts was that the committee would keep rates steady.
Egypt’s headline inflation dipped in November to 25.5 percent, its lowest since December 2022, and has been trending downwards from a record high of 38.0 percent in September 2023.
“Inflation is projected to ease substantially in 2025, as the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening and favorable base effect materializes, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 and convergence to single digits by H2 2026,” the statement said.
It added that according to leading indicators, economic growth accelerated in the second half of 2024 from the 2.4 percent recorded in the second quarter.
“The committee judges that the current policy rates remain appropriate to maintain a tight monetary stance until a significant and sustained decline in inflation is achieved, and expectations are firmly anchored,” the statement said.
Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism
RIYADH: Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for a weekly rise amid optimism that economic stimulus efforts will prompt a recovery in China, but a stronger dollar capped gains, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $73.24 a barrel by 08:35 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.61, down 1 cent, from Thursday’s close. However, on a weekly basis, Brent was up 0.4 percent and WTI rose 0.2 percent.
The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year.
China, the world’s biggest oil importer, revised upwards its 2023 gross domestic product estimate by 2.7 percent, but also said the change would have little impact on growth this year.
Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week citing sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
However, a stronger US dollar weighed on oil prices and capped gains. The greenback has risen about 7 percent this quarter and remained pinned at a near two-year peak against major peers after the Federal Reserve signaled slower rate cuts in 2025.
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The latest weekly report on US inventories from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell last week by 3.2 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday. API/S
Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration confirms the decline. The EIA data is due at 9 p.m. Saudi time on Friday, later than normal because of the Christmas holiday.
Analysts in a Reuters poll expect crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, while gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels respectively.
ROSHN launches first residential community in Makkah
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s leading property developer, ROSHN, has officially launched its first residential community in Makkah, marking a significant milestone in the company’s efforts to improve the city’s living standards while supporting the national development goals outlined in Vision 2030.
The launch event for the Al-Manar Community project, which is ROSHN’s inaugural residential development in Makkah, took place under the patronage of Makkah Gov. Prince Khaled Al-Faisal. The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by a host of prominent figures, including Makkah Mayor Musaed bin Abdulaziz Al-Dawood, Royal Commission for Makkah and Holy Sites CEO Saleh bin Ibrahim Al-Rasheed, Real Estate General Authority CEO Abdullah Al-Hammad, and ROSHN’s acting CEO Khaled Jawhar. The event also saw participation from officials across both the public and private sectors.
Strategically positioned, the Al-Manar community is just a 20-minute drive from the Grand Mosque, less than an hour from King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, and only two minutes from Makkah’s western gateway. The development’s design thoughtfully integrates the region’s rich cultural and architectural heritage, blending modernity with tradition.
The Saudi government, under Vision 2030, has set ambitious targets to boost homeownership among citizens, aiming for 70 percent by the end of the decade.
ROSHN is playing a pivotal role in achieving this goal by developing large-scale residential projects that offer high-quality and affordable housing options for Saudi citizens. These initiatives are in line with the government’s strategy to expand the housing sector, elevate living standards, and provide homes for the country’s growing population.
At the ceremony, attendees were given a tour of model villas and previewed the diverse residential designs available within the community. The Al-Manar development will feature a variety of villas alongside essential amenities such as schools, mosques, shopping centers, healthcare facilities, open spaces, and recreational areas.
Khaled Jawhar, acting CEO of ROSHN, explained that the project spans over 21 million sq. meters and will provide more than 33,000 housing units. Additionally, it will offer more than 150 facilities designed to meet the needs of residents and support community well-being.
Saleh bin Ibrahim Al-Rasheed, CEO of the Royal Commission for Makkah and Holy Sites, emphasized the significance of the Al-Manar community as the first fully integrated ROSHN development in Makkah.
“Located at the city’s western gateway, within the Haram boundaries, this project reflects our commitment to facilitating impactful developments that drive long-term growth and sustainability,” Al-Rasheed said.
