KARACHI: A flare-up in tensions between the US and Iran could aggravate Pakistan’s economic situation, forcing the country – which relies heavily on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz – to work toward defending its economic and political interests, analysts said on Tuesday.
A flurry of attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz – the busiest transit lane for seaborne oil supplies that splits Iran from its Arab neighbors – has left six oil tankers damaged since May this year, adding to the tensity between Washington and Tehran.
The US authorities hold Iran responsible for the mounting attacks on the oil tankers, an allegation which Iran denies.
In June this year, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: “This assessment is based on intelligence, the weapons used, the level of expertise needed to execute the operation, recent similar Iranian attacks on shipping and the fact that no proxy group operating in the area has the resources and proficiency to act with such a high degree of sophistication.”
In a worst case scenario, analysts expect Asian countries, including Pakistan, to be engulfed by the flames of war and increasing oil prices in the Gulf region.
“As the global economy relies heavily on oil supplies, closure of the Strait of Hormuz [will lead to] a sharp increase in prices, which will cause panic in all world markets. In this situation, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and the UAE will stop shipping oil containers, and Saudi Arabia will be forced to export its oil through the Red Sea ports,” Omid Shokri Kalehsar, a Washington-based Senior Energy Security Analyst and Visiting Research Scholar at Center for Energy Science and Policy (CESP) and Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, told Arab News.
“In this case, the conflicts will take place in the peak region, which will lead to a military confrontation,” Shokri added.
Starting from yesterday, Pakistan began receiving oil supplies from Saudi Arabia on deferred payments worth $275 million a month. “These supplies will continue over the next three years with a total value of $9.9 billion,” a statement issued by the Saudi embassy in Islamabad said on Monday.
In October last year, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had announced an economic support package for Pakistan which included $3 billion for supporting the balance of external payments. The package also included oil imports on deferred payments. The agreement between the two sides reached a total amount of $20 billion, the statement added.
Additionally, Saudi Aramco will supply 110,000-115,000 barrels of crude oil to Pak-Arab Refinery and National Refinery on a daily basis.
Pakistan has imported petroleum crude worth $4.2 billion, 12% higher, during the July–May period of the outgoing fiscal year ending on June 30 as compared to $3.7 billion, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics.
However, analysts argue that – despite the Kingdom’s generous offer – supplies would be affected by any “dangerous escalation” between Iran and the US. Pakistan meets 85% of its oil needs through imports.
“Pakistan’s majority of oil and Liquefied Natural Gas LNG passes through strait of Hormuz. Obviously, a major increase in price, insurance and risk premium is going to be costly for Pakistan,” Samiullah Tariq, Director Research at Arif Habib Limited, said.
Amid rising tensions in the Gulf region, “the insurers have increased the premium of those vessels crossing strait of Hormuz,” Masood Abdali, a Texas-based energy expert and former business development manager of Weatherford, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, told Arab News.
“There are slim chances of a US-Iran war,” he said, adding that in a worst case scenario “if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Pakistan and Asian countries would suffer much.”
“Pakistan’s lower capacity of oil storage could be the matter of the country’s security,” he added.
“Security of supply is very vital for both exporters and importers. Any tension and any possible confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz is not in favor of world oil market,” Shokri said.
Meanwhile, defense analysts ruled out Pakistan’s neutrality amid the regional flare-up.
“Pakistan has a very clear stance that if Makkah and Madinah are attacked, we would stand up to defend it. I don’t think if any country attacks Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will not be involved. Pakistan can and would play a role of mediator between Arabs and Iranians,” Lt. General Retd. Naeem Khalid Lodhi, former minister of Defense and National Security Division told Arab News.
Lodhi appreciated the wisdom expressed by Saudi and other Arab leaders in the face of terror attacks on oil tankers. “I think Arabs and their leadership have expressed best example of tolerance, despite the fact that tankers were attacked in their areas and around. This was display of wisdom of higher degree. They have understood the conspiracy,” Lodhi said.
“In case of war smuggling of oil from neighboring Iran to Pakistan would increase, though the Pakistani government would try to stop such illegal inflow but it won’t be so easy to handle the situation,” Lodhi added.
Analysts believe that despite the sanctions imposed by the US, Iranian oil continues to be supplied to the world market – a fact which is being ignored by the US.
“Reports indicate that Iranian oil supply is not fully suspended. Iran is selling oil to a number of Asian countries, but payment is made in a third country. In this situation, it is in the interest of Iran that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for oil transportation,” Abdali said.
“Iran needs to revise its regional foreign policy. Iran with huge oil and gas reserves needs active energy diplomacy to be a key player in the regional and world energy market. De-escalation of foreign policy would help Iran solve its problems with the US,” Shokri added.
Closure of Strait of Hormuz could spell economic doom for Pakistan
Closure of Strait of Hormuz could spell economic doom for Pakistan
- Analysts worry US-Iran war would impact oil supply, increase prices in the region
- A flurry of attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has left six oil tankers damaged since May this year
Pakistan court directs government to engage with Imran Khan’s party over Nov. 24 protest
- Islamabad High Court says law and order remains government’s priority if there is no breakthrough
- Chief Justice Aamer Farooq hopes PTI will have ‘meaningful communication’ with the administration
ISLAMABAD: The Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Thursday directed the government to form a committee to engage in talks with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leadership regarding the party’s planned protest in Islamabad on Nov. 24, emphasizing the need to avoid disruptions during the visit of the Belarusian president.
IHC Chief Justice Aamer Farooq issued the directive while hearing a petition by local trade association, instructing the government to constitute the committee that is preferably headed by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, with Islamabad Chief Commissioner Muhammad Ali Randhawa and other officials.
The committee is tasked with negotiating with PTI leaders to address the “sensitivity over the weekend due to the movement of the President of a foreign country.”
“It would be appropriate that respondent No. 1 (government) constitute the committee ... to engage with the leadership of respondent No. 5 (PTI party), informing them of the sensitivity over the weekend,” said the court.
“In case no breakthrough is made, the law and order is the responsibility of respondents No. 1,” it continued, adding: “In this regard, no protest or rally or for that matter sit-in shall be allowed.”
Chief Justice Farooq urged the government to maintain law and order in Islamabad with “minimum disruption to the life of ordinary citizens,” expressing hope that PTI would “engage in meaningful communication” with the committee.
The court also directed a report on the matter to be submitted at the next hearing, scheduled for Nov. 27.
The directive followed a petition filed by Jinnah Super Traders Association (JSTA) President Asad Aziz, who sought the court’s intervention to prevent the PTI protest, citing disruptions to daily life and financial losses for the business community.
“Islamabad is a very expensive city with high property and rent prices,” Aziz told Arab News. “If your business is shut on top business days, how can these businessmen survive?“
He highlighted the financial strain caused by protests, particularly for shopkeepers in areas like Super Market, Jinnah Super Market and Blue Area.
Aziz claimed that 20 percent of shopkeepers had shut their businesses in recent months due to recurring disruptions caused by political demonstrations.
Protests in Islamabad have frequently caused disruptions to their lives of it residents. In September, a similar PTI demonstration led the government to lock down the city with containers, creating significant inconvenience for people and business owners.
Earlier this year, Pakistan’s parliament passed a law regulating public gatherings in Islamabad, specifying timings for rallies and designating specific areas. The law prescribes three-year jail terms for participants in illegal assemblies and 10-year imprisonment for repeat offenders.
Pakistan’s interior ministry has already approved the deployment of paramilitary forces in Islamabad to manage the anticipated law and order situation during the protests.
The security situation has also become a paramount concern due to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s three-day visit to Islamabad starting Monday, during which several investment deals and memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed between the two countries.
In rare message, Imran Khan’s wife says he won’t seek revenge if back in power
- Bushra Bibi says the protest date will only change from Nov. 24 if Khan shares another public course of action
- Her message marks a rare foray into the public eye, underscoring her emerging role as a central PTI figure
ISLAMABAD: In a rare public message on Thursday, Bushra Bibi, the wife of Pakistan’s jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan, assured state institutions he harbors no plans for revenge upon returning to power, as she rallied support for a protest planned by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) next week.
The PTI is organizing the rally in Islamabad on November 24, demanding Khan’s release, who has been in prison since August last year following his arrest on corruption charges.
The protest also aims to highlight the party’s allegations of electoral rigging in the February 8 general elections. The planned demonstration reflects the deepening political polarization in Pakistan, with Khan’s supporters and other political factions locked in an increasingly bitter political conflict.
Khan’s combative rhetoric against state institutions, including the powerful military— whom he has accused of orchestrating his ouster in an April 2022 no-confidence vote— has further entrenched divisions.
Despite his incarceration, Khan has remained defiant, which many interpret as evidence of his determination to seek retribution against rivals if he regains power. In her video message, however, Bibi dismissed the perceptions, emphasizing Khan’s commitment to forgiveness and unity.
“I want to tell the [state] institutions that it is completely wrong to think that Khan will take revenge on anyone,” she said in the video. “Khan says taking revenge on people after coming into power is akin to inviting God’s displeasure.”
“He has said that the time he has spent in jail has brought him closer to God,” she continued. “He has also said that he has learned that when you come into power, you should open the door to forgiveness, not the door to oppression.”
Bibi’s appeal marked a rare foray into the public eye, underscoring her emerging role as a central figure in the PTI’s efforts to build momentum for Khan’s release. She remained in the same jail with Khan in a case involving the illegal sale of state gifts before her release on bail in October.
Bibi called on party supporters to participate in the November 24 rally, saying there was no plan to change the protest date.
“The date can only be changed on one condition that Khan comes out and himself announces the next course of action to the public,” she said. “Otherwise, under no circumstances can the date of Nov. 24 be changed.”
Khan’s arrest and imprisonment have become a flashpoint for political tensions in Pakistan. The PTI alleges that the cases against Khan are politically motivated, aimed at sidelining the former premier and dismantling his party.
Meanwhile, the coalition government has taken measures to suppress PTI’s rallies, citing concerns over public safety and order, particularly in light of the planned protest in Islamabad.
Bibi asked people to come out and protest in her message, calling it their duty to fighter for the rule of law in the country.
Pakistan government open to talks with Imran Khan’s party, refuses to allow Nov. 24 protest
- Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi says negotiations cannot take place amid ‘threats’ from PTI
- He says it is not possible to allow a rally in Islamabad ahead of a Belarusian delegation visit
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Thursday suggested the government was open to talks with former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party but ruled out allowing its planned protest in Islamabad on November 24, ahead of a high-level visit by a Belarusian delegation.
The PTI has announced a “long march” to Islamabad on November 24, primarily demanding the release of Khan, who has been imprisoned since August last year on charges the party contends are politically motivated.
Additionally, the party’s protest is also meant to raise its voice against alleged rigging in the February 8 general elections while calling for measures to ensure judicial independence, which it believes has been undermined by the 26th constitutional amendment.
On Monday, Islamabad’s district magistrate imposed a two-month-long ban on gatherings of more than five people in the capital, invoking Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure. This provision allows the government to prohibit political assemblies, rallies, demonstrations, sit-ins and other activities for a specified period.
Addressing the media in Islamabad, the interior minister said the government was fully prepared to stop the protest, with Punjab police, Rangers and Frontier Constabulary (FC) troops assisting the Islamabad police in operational duties.
“Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Barrister Gohar Khan met Imran Khan twice in the past two days,” Naqvi said, amid speculation that the PTI leaders discussed the option of negotiating with the government. “If they wish to initiate talks [with the government], they should do it. If they want to hold talks, they should tell us.”
The minister added, however, that no talks were possible if the PTI headed to Islamabad and “wielded sticks against us” on November 24.
“Let me tell you one thing: negotiations don’t take place with threats, though I personally feel talks should take place between everyone,” he said.
In response to a question, Naqvi clarified that no talks were currently underway with Khan, who is facing a new case related to violence at a PTI rally that took place in September while the ex-premier was in jail.
Highlighting the upcoming visit of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and his 10 cabinet ministers to Pakistan on a three-day visit next week, Naqvi said no permission could be granted for any rally or protest in the federal capital.
He added that a decision on whether to suspend mobile signals in Islamabad ahead of the protest would be finalized by Friday night.
Just a day earlier, it emerged that Pakistan’s interior ministry had authorized the deployment of paramilitary Punjab Rangers and FC forces in Islamabad since November 7 to maintain law and order.
Pakistan’s parliament also passed a law earlier this year to regulate public gatherings in Islamabad, specifying timings for rallies and designating specific areas. The law prescribes three-year jail terms for participants in illegal assemblies and 10-year imprisonment for repeat offenders.
Pakistani stocks surge past 97,000 as investor confidence grows on economic reforms
- Analysts attribute rally to strong economic data, rising optimism over government reforms
- Stock market has remained bullish since the government slashed policy rate in November
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday gained 1,700 points, surging past the 97,000 mark during intra-day trading for the first time, with analysts attributing the rally to strong economic data and rising investor optimism over government reforms.
The benchmark KSE-100 index rose by 1,781.94 points, or 1.86 percent, to close at 97,328.39. It touched an unprecedented peak of 97,437.15 during intra-day trading.
Analyst Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation said surging foreign exchange reserves and speculations over the government’s decisions on economic reforms and privatization “played a catalyst role in the record surge at the PSX.”
“Stocks are bullish, led by scrips across the board as investors weigh a drop in government bond yields and robust economic data for current account surplus, remittances, exports and foreign direct investments,” Mehanti told Arab News.
In October, Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments.
A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.
A bullish trend has been observed in the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. Economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
In the past, the country faced a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation. Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-minute $3 billion IMF bailout deal.
Saudi mission in Pakistan condemns militant attack that killed 12 soldiers this week
- The embassy extends condolences to victims’ families and the Pakistani people in a statement
- The statement reiterates the kingdom’s position ‘rejecting all forms of violence and terrorism’
ISLAMABAD: The Saudi embassy in Pakistan on Thursday condemned a militant attack on a joint security checkpoint in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that killed 10 army soldiers and two Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel, extending condolences to the victims’ families and the Pakistani people.
The attack, which occurred on Tuesday, targeted a joint army and paramilitary check post in the Mali Khel area of Bannu District, where militants detonated an explosive-laden vehicle after troops repelled their attempt to storm the post, according to the Pakistan military. Six militants were killed during the exchange of gunfire that followed.
“The Embassy expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the attack on a joint checkpoint in the city of Bannu in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, which resulted in the death and injury of a number of people,” the Saudi diplomatic mission in Islamabad said in a statement.
“The Embassy reiterates the Kingdom’s position rejecting all forms of violence and terrorism,” it added. “The Embassy extends its deepest condolences and sincere sympathy to the families of the victims, the government and the people of Pakistan, and wishes the injured a speedy recovery.”
Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has experienced a resurgence of militant violence in recent months, with a growing number of attacks on security forces and infrastructure despite the country’s efforts to combat militancy.
The region has long been a hotspot for insurgent activity, with militants frequently targeting military and paramilitary personnel.
Saudi Arabia has consistently expressed its support for Pakistan’s fight against extremist violence, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation to tackle militancy and ensure regional stability.
