Continued standoff between military, rallyists may slide Sudan into deeper chaos

Supporters of Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the military council, cheer at a meeting in Aprag village, 60 km from Khartoum. (Reuters)
Updated 04 July 2019
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Continued standoff between military, rallyists may slide Sudan into deeper chaos

  • It was the biggest show of determination by the protesters since security forces dispersed their main sit-in outside the military headquarters on June 3

CAIRO: The mass marches held in Sudan this week breathed new life into the uprising that toppled long ruling president, Omar Al-Bashir, but the protesters and the ruling military council remain at an impasse amid fears the country could slide into further chaos.

Tens of thousands of people marched through the streets of the capital, Khartoum, and other areas on Sunday, vowing to complete the revolution they launched in December. 

Nearly a dozen people were killed in clashes as security forces prevented the demonstrators from reaching the military headquarters and the Nile-side presidential palace.

It was the biggest show of determination by the protesters since security forces dispersed their main sit-in outside the military headquarters on June 3, killing at least 128 people. That triggered the suspension of talks on forming a transitional government just as the two sides seemed on the verge of an agreement.

Ethiopian and African Union (AU) mediators are working to restart the talks, but both sides have hardened their demands since last month’s violence, with the generals saying earlier proposals are off the table and the protesters calling for an immediate transition to civilian rule and an investigation into the killings. Here is a look at where things may be heading.

Protests first erupted in December in response to price hikes but rapidly escalated into near-daily marches calling for an end to Bashir’s nearly 30-year rule. Troops largely refused Bashir’s orders to fire on the protesters, and the military removed him from power on April 11. Bashir now languishes in a Khartoum prison where his forces once jailed and tortured his opponents.

But the protesters remained in the streets, fearing that the military would cling to power. When the military announced it would govern for up to two years until elections could be held, the protesters demanded an immediate transition to a civilian body that would govern the country for four years.

After several rounds of talks the two sides appeared to be closing in on a power-sharing agreement in which the Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change, which represents the protesters, would hold 67 percent of the seats in an interim legislative body and appoint a Cabinet. But the two sides remained divided over the makeup of the sovereign council, which would hold executive power for three years.

The process came to a screeching halt on June 3, when security forces attacked the sit-in. The generals annulled all previous deals but announced to hold elections in nine months.

An unwieldy coalition

Sunday’s marches provided a powerful show of unity, but internal divides among the protesters threaten to undermine their struggle going forward.

The initial uprising was led by the Sudanese Professionals Association, an umbrella group of independent unions, which later joined forces with the country’s various opposition parties.

The parties appear more eager to cut a deal with the military. Sadiq Al-Mahdi, the head of the Umma Party and Sudan’s last democratically elected prime minister, opposed calls for a general strike after the June 3 crackdown. He has also agreed with the military on expanding the negotiations to include other political groups that many protesters view as too close to Bashir.

The Sudanese Revolutionary Front, a rebel group that is part of the protest movement, meanwhile threatened to negotiate separately with the military council, the English language Sudan Tribune reported Monday.

Gibril Ibrahim, an SRF leader, was quoted as saying that decision-making within the coalition has been “kidnapped” by a small committee “formed in vague circumstances with limited representation.”

Mediation efforts

Ethiopia’s reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with both sides in Khartoum last month, and his administration along with the AU has sought to mediate the crisis. The White House has expressed support for those efforts and has appointed a special envoy to Sudan.

Last month, the AU and Ethiopia offered a joint proposal based on previous agreements that left the makeup of the legislative body open for negotiations. The generals welcomed it as the basis for future talks, but the protesters refuse to meet with the military until it fully accepts the roadmap.

“We are back to square one,” said Amany El-Taweel, a Sudan expert at Egypt’s Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. “I believe they are playing for time, especially after the pressure from the street decreased due to the breakup of the military headquarters sit-in.”

Fears of civil war

The deadlock in the negotiations has stoked fears that Sudan could slide into civil war, as Yemen, Libya and Syria did after their own uprisings.

Sudan has been at war with rebels in Darfur and other regions for decades, and the centrifugal forces that have convulsed the country since independence could tear it apart in the absence of a stable central government.

“Civil war is a terribly distinct possibility,” Sudan researcher Eric Reeves said. “The failure of the international community to push harder for civilian governance — for various reasons — is proving deeply counterproductive.”

Osman Mirghani, a Sudanese analyst and the editor of the daily newspaper Al-Tayar, said resuming negotiations offers the only hope of avoiding the “Libya model.”

“If the impasse continues, Sudan could become a new Libya, which means a set of militias control parts of the country and each militia has its government.”

Sudanese novelist Hamour Zyada blamed the impasse on the military, calling it a threat to the country’s peace and stability.

“In the near future, I am not optimistic. I do not expect that the military council will relinquish its grip on power,” he said. “But at the far future, I am optimistic. The public mood is with the civilian state and the revolution.”


Hamas-led force targets gangs looting Gaza aid convoys

Updated 3 sec ago
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Hamas-led force targets gangs looting Gaza aid convoys

CAIRO: Fighters from Hamas and other Gaza factions have formed an armed force to prevent gangs pillaging aid convoys in the embattled territory, residents and sources close to the group said, after a big increase in the looting of scarce supplies.
Since being formed this month amid rising public anger at aid seizures and price gouging, the new force has staged repeated operations, ambushing looters and killing some in armed clashes, the sources said.
Hamas’ efforts to take a lead in securing aid supplies point to the difficulties Israel will face in a post-war Gaza, with few obvious alternatives to a group it has been trying to destroy for over a year and which it says can have no governing role.
Israel accuses Hamas of hijacking aid. The group denies that and accuses Israel of trying to foment anarchy in Gaza by targeting police guarding aid convoys.
A spokesperson for Israel’s military did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment on Hamas units fighting looters.
Amid the chaos of the war, armed gangs have increasingly raided supply convoys, hijacking trucks and selling the looted stock in Gaza markets at exorbitant prices.
As well as driving anger at the Israeli military, the shortages had also prompted questions of Hamas for its seeming inability to stop the gangs.
“We are all against the bandits and looters so we can live and eat ... now you are obliged to buy from a thief,” said Diyaa Al-Nasara, speaking near a funeral for a Hamas fighter killed in clashes with looters.
The new anti-looting force, formed of well-equipped fighters from Hamas and allied groups, has been named “The Popular and Revolutionary Committees” and is ready to open fire on hijackers who do not surrender, one of the sources, a Hamas government official, said.
The official, who declined to be named because Hamas would not authorize him to speak about it, said the group operated across central and southern Gaza and had carried out at least 15 missions so far, including killing some armed gangsters.

WIDESPREAD HUNGER
Thirteen months into Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza, launched in response to the deadly Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, major shortages of food, medicine and other goods are causing widespread hunger and suffering among civilians.
Israel put commercial goods imports on hold last month and only aid trucks have entered Gaza since then, carrying a fraction of what relief groups say is needed for a territory where most people have lost their homes and have little money.
“It’s getting harder and harder to get the aid in,” said WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris after a series of looting incidents over the weekend.
Before the war, a sack of flour sold for $10 or $15 and a kilogram of milk powder for 30 shekels. Now the flour costs $100 and the milk powder 300 shekels, traders said.
Some people in Gaza say they want Hamas to target looters.
“There is a campaign against thieves, we see that. If the campaign continues and aid flows, the prices will go down because the stolen aid appears in the markets at high cost,” said Shaban, a displaced Gaza City engineer, now living in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
After nearly 100 trucks were looted last week Hamas attacked an armed group gathering near a crossing where aid trucks usually enter, opened heavy fire, killing at least 20 of them, according to residents and the Hamas Aqsa television.
Witnesses described another firefight on Saturday when Hamas fighters in two cars chased men suspected of looting who were in another vehicle, resulting in the death of the suspects.
The Hamas official said the force showed that the group’s governance in Gaza continued.
“Hamas as a movement exists, whether someone likes it or not. Hamas as a government exists too, not as strong as it used to be, but it exists and its personnel are trying to serve the people everywhere in the areas of displacement,” he said.

Israel army says soldier killed in combat in Lebanon

Updated 16 min 41 sec ago
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Israel army says soldier killed in combat in Lebanon

  • The sergeant was killed during combat in southern Lebanon, the army said

JERUSALEM: The Israeli army said Tuesday that a soldier was killed in south Lebanon, where its troops have battled Hezbollah since late September after a year of cross-border exchanges of fire.
“Sergeant First Class (Reserve) Omer Moshe Gaeldor, aged 30, from Jerusalem, a soldier from the 5,111 Battalion, Golani Brigade, was killed during combat in southern Lebanon,” the army said, adding three other soldiers were wounded.


Three Palestinians killed in Israeli West Bank raid

Updated 19 November 2024
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Three Palestinians killed in Israeli West Bank raid

  • The three men were between 24 and 32 years old
  • Violence in the West Bank, particularly in the north, has soared since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7 last year

JENIN: Three Palestinians were killed in an Israeli military operation near Jenin in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, Israeli security forces said.
A joint statement from the army, police and Shin Bet security agency said the three militants died in an exchange of fire in Qabatiya village, where undercover border police attempted to arrest a wanted man.
The Israeli forces came under fire from a building where the suspect, Raed Hanaysha, was hiding, the statement said, before killing him and “two armed terrorists.”
The Israeli army said it seized weapons from the scene, “destroyed two bomb-making labs,” and that its forces were still active in the area.
“There are three bodies of martyrs that are now with the Israeli side, after they killed them,” local governor Kamal Abu Al-Rub said, citing the office in charge of liaising between Israeli and Palestinian authorities in the West Bank.
The Palestinian health ministry said the District Coordination Office had also informed it of the deaths of “three young men shot by Israeli forces near Qabatiya,” which is in the Jenin governorate.
The three men were between 24 and 32 years old, a ministry statement said, identifying Raed Hanaysha as one of the dead.
Israeli security forces said Hanaysha had been involved “in shooting and bombing attacks” recently against the army.
Violence in the West Bank, particularly in the north, has soared since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7 last year.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 771 Palestinians in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.
Palestinian attacks on Israelis have also killed at least 24 people in the same period in the West Bank, according to official Israeli figures.


As truce talks progress, Lebanon's army cornered by politics, funding

Updated 19 November 2024
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As truce talks progress, Lebanon's army cornered by politics, funding

  • Hezbollah, though weakened by Israel's year-long offensive, has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces
  • "The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult," said retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni

BEIRUT: Intensifying efforts for a truce in Lebanon have brought into focus the role of the country's army, which would be expected to keep the south free of Hezbollah weapons but is neither willing nor able to confront the Iran-backed group, seven sources said.
Hezbollah, though weakened by Israel's year-long offensive, has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have stayed on the sidelines of the conflict even after Israel sent ground forces into south Lebanon on Oct. 1.
While the army will likely be required to deploy thousands of troops to the south after any ceasefire deal, it will need Hezbollah's nod to do so and will avoid confrontations that could trigger internal strife, said the sources - three people close to the army and four diplomats, including from donor countries.
"The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult. It cannot practice normal missions like the armies of other countries because there is another military force in the country," said retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni, referring to Hezbollah, which enjoys a semi-formal military status as a resistance force.
This week, both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S. truce proposal, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters, while cautioning Lebanon still had "comments" on the draft. Hezbollah's approval is needed for any ceasefire to take effect, given its arsenal and sway over the Lebanese state.
A second official said exactly how the army would be deployed to the south was still under discussion.
The United States is keen to see the army confront Hezbollah more directly and shared that view with Lebanese officials, said two Western diplomats and one of the sources close to the army.
But Hezbollah's military strength, its shares of Lebanon's cabinet and parliament, and the proportion of army troops who are Shi'ite Muslim, means such a move would risk internal conflict, they said.
Scenes of the army "storming into houses looking for Hezbollah weapons" would lead to a civil war, one of the diplomats said, arguing that the army could instead work alongside U.N. peacekeeping troops to patrol the south without confronting Hezbollah directly.
Neither the army, Hezbollah or Israel's military responded to questions for this story.
Last week, Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif told reporters at a press conference that Hezbollah's relationship with the army remained "strong."
"You will not be able to sever the connection between the army and the resistance (Hezbollah)," he said, addressing those he said were trying to nudge the army to take on the group. Afif was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on Sunday.
The White House declined to comment for this story. Asked by Reuters about the role of Lebanon's military, the U.S. State Department said it could not comment on "ongoing, private negotiations".
Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials all agree that the cornerstone of a long-lasting truce lies in better implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last round of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
Resolution 1701 says southern Lebanon should be free of weapons that do not belong to the state, and foresees as many as 15,000 Lebanese troops deployed to the south. It was never fully implemented by either side and Hezbollah was able to arm itself and build up fortifications in the south after 2006.

UNUSED WATCHTOWERS
For months, watchtowers donated by Britain for the army to install in the south have gathered dust in a warehouse near Beirut, awaiting a truce, while diplomats negotiate how they could be erected in a way that would antagonize neither Israel nor Hezbollah, two diplomats and a source familiar with the situation said.
The plight of the watchtowers highlights some of the challenges the army will face with any deployment to the southern border.
The army has long avoided fighting Hezbollah, standing aside when the Shi'ite group and its allies took over Beirut in 2008.
Lebanese troops have also been careful not to clash with Israel, withdrawing from the border as Israeli forces prepared to invade in October. The army has held fire even when Israel has struck them directly, killing 36 Lebanese soldiers so far.
The army's reliance on foreign funding, especially hundreds of millions of dollars from Washington, further complicates its predicament.
Last year, Washington began disbursing cash to fortify troop salaries slashed by Lebanon's financial crisis after army canteens stopped serving meat and the military resorted to offering sightseeing tours in its helicopters to raise cash.
Two of the sources familiar with the army's thinking said the risk of losing U.S. support was a major concern for army chief Joseph Aoun, as was keeping the army unified to deploy once a truce is reached.
"Their priority now is to remain intact for the day after," one of them said.
In response to questions about the army's role in Lebanon, Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the transition team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in January, said he would act to restore "peace through strength around the world" when he returns to the White House.
Trump has nominated staunchly pro-Israel figures to influential diplomatic posts, including real estate developer Steve Witkoff as his Middle East envoy. Witkoff did not reply to questions.
One of the sources close to the army said it had no choice but to wait until the conflict ends to assess the state of Hezbollah's military strength before its own role becomes clear.
Founded in 1945, the army's troops are split almost evenly between Sunni Muslims, Shi'ite Muslims and Christians, making it a longstanding symbol of national unity.
Consisting of approximately 40,000 active personnel, the army sees itself primarily as the guarantor of civil peace, a Lebanese security source and the two sources familiar with the army's thinking said, particularly as tensions rise with hundreds of thousands of displaced Shi'ites seeking refuge in primarily Christian, Sunni and Druze areas in the current war.
It has also fought hardline Sunni groups - in Palestinian camps in 2007 and along Lebanon's border with Syria in 2017.
The army fractured along sectarian lines in 1976, in the early years of Lebanon's 15-year civil war, catalyzing Lebanon's descent into militia rule, which ended in 1990 with armed groups relinquishing their weapons - except Hezbollah.

AID DELAYED
Some international aid to the army has already been held up, three more diplomats said.
World powers pledged $200 million to the force in Paris last month on the expectation that it would go towards recruiting new troops, but differences have emerged.
U.S. officials have sought to withhold funds until a ceasefire is agreed to pressure Lebanon to make concessions, while Lebanon says it needs to recruit first to be able to implement a ceasefire, a European diplomat, a senior diplomat and a U.N. source told Reuters.
A U.S. official disputed that Washington was using aid as leverage. The State Department said Washington was committed to supporting the Lebanese state and its sovereign institutions. The White House declined to comment.
However, there is precedent. U.S. lawmakers in 2010 briefly blocked funding for Lebanon's military after a deadly border clash between Lebanon and Israel. In late September, a Republican U.S. lawmaker introduced a bill aiming to halt all financial aid, including for salaries, to the army until the Lebanese state barred Hezbollah as a political party.
Since 2008, ministerial statements have given Hezbollah legitimacy as an armed entity in the country alongside the military, without clearly detailing limits on its role.
"The situation needs internal political understandings to determine the role of Hezbollah in the security and military sphere in Lebanon," said Jouni, the retired brigadier general.


Hamas negotiators ‘not in Doha’ but political office not closed: Qatar

Updated 19 November 2024
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Hamas negotiators ‘not in Doha’ but political office not closed: Qatar

  • Qatar hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012 announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts

Doha: Hamas negotiators are not in Doha but the Palestinian militant group’s office there has not been permanently closed, Qatar said on Tuesday.
“The leaders of Hamas that are within the negotiating team are now not in Doha,” foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said, adding: “The decision to... close down the office permanently, is a decision that you will hear about from us directly.”
Qatar, along with the United States and Egypt, had been engaged in months of fruitless negotiations for a truce in the Gaza war, which would include a hostage and prisoner release deal.
But the Gulf state, which has hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012, with Washington’s blessing, announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts.
“The mediation process right now... is suspended unless we take a decision to reverse that which is based on the positions of both sides,” Ansari said on Tuesday.
“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked Hamas officials to leave.