BEIRUT: Two months of intensive airstrikes by Syrian government forces and their Russian allies, coupled with a fierce ground assault on rebel-controlled Idlib province, have killed hundreds of people and caused massive displacement while achieving little to no gain for President Bashar Assad.
Despite the heavy bombardment, Assad’s troops have been unable to make any significant advances against Al-Qaeda-linked militants and other extremist groups who dominate Idlib province, the last significant area held by opposition forces. Militant attacks have killed an average of more than a dozen soldiers and allied militiamen a day in recent weeks.
The struggling campaign underscores the limits of Syria’s and Russia’s airpower and inability to achieve a definitive victory in the country’s long-running civil war, now in its eighth year.
With crucial military assistance from Russia and Iran, Syrian troops have in the past few years recovered most other opposition-held parts of the country with crushing offensives and long-running sieges. In each of those places, rebels either surrendered or were forcibly exiled to Idlib, where they are now cornered with nowhere left to go. Bitter and desperate, they can only fight to the end. Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, the leader of the main Al-Qaeda-linked group in the region, has called on every able person to “perform his religious duty” and join the fight.
Sam Heller, a Syria expert with the International Crisis Group who closely follows the situation in the rebel-controlled area, said, “Idlib’s armed opposition may not be able to win an open battle for the northwest, but they can make a Syrian military victory terribly costly, maybe intolerably so.”
Politically, Idlib reflects the tug of war among international players supporting opposing sides of Syria’s conflict. A cease-fire brokered last September by Russia, a key ally of Assad, and Turkey, which supports the rebels, collapsed on April 30 when the government began its offensive following months of violations by both sides. Turkey, which hosts 3 million Syrian refugees, fears a full-blown government offensive would cause a new wave of displaced people heading toward its border, but it has been unable — or some say, unwilling — to control the rebels in Idlib that it supports.
Crucially, Iran-backed fighters, including members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group whose participation has been key in previous battles, have not joined fight for Idlib, deeming the region a low priority, unlike more strategic areas bordering Iraq and Lebanon. Even Russia hasn’t thrown all its weight into the fray and has continued to talk to Turkey about ways to reinstate the cease-fire.
Rather than a full-blown offensive to recover the province, which is packed with 3 million people, Assad’s government has for now restricted its assault to the edges of the province with the aim of reopening key highways crossing through rebel-held areas. But even that has proved futile as the rebels fight back aggressively.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, 2,443 people have been killed since April 30. They include 629 civilians, among them 159 children. The dead also include 869 pro-government fighters and troops as well as 945 insurgents, according to the Observatory. Many more have been wounded and many villages destroyed, with the United Nations saying the fighting has displaced more than 330,000 from their homes. Many of them now live in overcrowded tents near the border with Turkey.
Spearheading the offensive on Idlib and northern parts of the central province of Hama is the government’s elite Tiger Force led by Brig. Gen. Suheil Al-Hassan, a Russian-backed Syrian officer who took credit for some of the biggest government victories in the eight-year conflict.
But he has not succeeded in breaking Idlib’s defenses and remains deadlocked. According to opposition activists, elite forces from the Republican Guards and the Fourth Division led by Assad’s younger brother, Maher, have recently started taking part in the offensive.
Opposition activists say government forces and their Russian allies have been targeting schools and medical centers, reportedly killing 10 medical staff since the offensive began, to make it difficult for the local population to stay. The tactic has been used by government troops elsewhere in Syria. Airstrikes have also targeted paramedics, killing four ambulance workers in recent weeks, activists say.
The Idlib offensive began with government forces capturing more than a dozen villages, including Qalaat Al-Madiq and Kfar Nabudah, which are considered the militants’ first line of defense of Idlib. Since then, Kfar Nabudah has changed hands several times. Insurgents later took government forces by surprise by launching an offensive and opening another front, in which they succeeded in capturing the villages of Madraset Al-Dahra, Tel Milh and Jubain. Repeated government attacks to retake the area were unsuccessful.
Mohammed Al-Ali, a journalist based in Idlib province, said that two months into the offensive the government now only controls the village of Qassabiyeh in Idlib as well as some dozen villages in northern Hama province and the town of Qalaat Al-Madiq.
Al-Ali said one of the insurgents’ biggest successes was opening the new front, in which they cut a main road linking the central city of Hama with government-held villages on the edge of Idlib.
“The rebels’ steadfastness and regime’s heavy losses made them fail to achieve advances similar to those they did at the start,” he said of the government offensive. He said anti-tank missiles were key in slowing the regime’s offensive.
The battle could last for months and claim more lives unless Turkey, Iran and Russia reach a new deal for the region similar to last year’s cease-fire. The faltering offensive could encourage Russia to reach such a deal with Turkey.
Turkey’s presidential spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, said Ankara is planning to host a summit between the leaders of the three nations in August to discuss Syria, mainly Idlib.
“The Syrian military’s inability so far to make more headway in Idlib does not mean it cannot ultimately achieve victory nationwide,” Heller, of Crisis Group, said. “It does show, however, that its military victory is contingent on politics that -are bigger than just Syria.”
Two-month Idlib campaign nets little for Syria’s Assad
Two-month Idlib campaign nets little for Syria’s Assad
- Despite the heavy bombardment, Assad’s troops have been unable to make any significant advances against Al-Qaeda-linked militants and other extremist groups who dominate Idlib province
- Rather than a full-blown offensive to recover the province, which is packed with 3 million people, Assad’s government has for now restricted its assault to the edges of the province with the aim of reopening key highways crossing through rebel-held areas
Syrians protest after video showing attack on Alawite shrine: monitor, witnesses
- State news agency SANA said police in central Homs imposed a curfew from 6:00 p.m. (1500 GMT) until 8:00 am on Thursday
- Syria’s new authorities said the video footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the incident
DAMASCUS: Angry protests broke out Wednesday in several areas of Syria after a video circulated showing an attack on an Alawite shrine in the country’s north, a war monitor and witnesses said.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said large demonstrations took place in the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia, provinces that are the heartland of the Alawite minority which deposed ruler Bashar Assad hails from.
The Britain-based Observatory also reported protests in parts of the central city of Homs and other areas including Qardaha, Assad’s hometown.
Witnesses told AFP demonstrations broke out in Tartus, Latakia and nearby Jableh.
Images from Jableh showed large crowds in the streets, some chanting slogans including “Alawite, Sunni, we want peace.”
State news agency SANA said police in central Homs imposed a curfew from 6:00 p.m. (1500 GMT) until 8:00 am on Thursday, while local authorities in Jableh also announced a nighttime curfew.
The Observatory said the protests erupted after a video began circulating earlier Wednesday showing “an attack by fighters” on an important Alawite shrine in the Maysaloon district of Syria’s second city Aleppo.
It said five workers were killed, adding that the shrine was set ablaze.
Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said the exact date of the video was unknown.
He said it was filmed early this month, after militants led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham launched a lightning offensive and seized control of major cities including Aleppo on December 1, ousting Assad a week later.
AFP was unable to independently verify the footage or the date of the incident.
Syria’s new authorities said the video footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the incident.
The footage showing “the storming and attack” of the shrine in Aleppo is “old and dates to the time of the liberation” of the northern Syrian city earlier this month, an interior ministry statement said, adding that the attack was carried out by “unknown groups” and that “republishing” the video served to “stir up strife among the Syrian people at this sensitive stage.”
Hamas says ‘new’ Israeli conditions delaying agreement on Gaza ceasefire
- “Occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people,” Hamas said
JERUSALEM: Hamas accused Israel on Wednesday of imposing “new conditions” that it said were delaying a ceasefire agreement in the war in Gaza, though it acknowledged negotiations were still ongoing.
Israel has made no public statement about any new conditions in its efforts to secure the release of hostages seized on October 7, 2023.
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have taken place in Doha in recent days, rekindling hope for a truce deal that has proven elusive.
“The ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations are continuing in Doha under the mediation of Qatar and Egypt in a serious manner... but the occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people, which has delayed reaching an agreement,” the Palestinian militant group said in a statement.
Hamas did not elaborate on the conditions imposed by Israel.
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told parliament that there was “some progress” in the talks, and on Tuesday his office said Israeli representatives had returned from Qatar after “significant negotiations.”
Last week, Hamas and two other Palestinian militant groups — Islamic Jihad and the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — said in a rare joint statement that a ceasefire agreement was “closer than ever,” provided Israel did not impose new conditions.
Efforts to strike a truce and hostage release deal have repeatedly failed over key stumbling blocks.
Despite numerous rounds of indirect talks, Israel and Hamas have agreed just one truce, which lasted for a week at the end of 2023.
Negotiations have faced multiple challenges since then, with the primary point of disagreement being the establishment of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Another unresolved issue is the governance of post-war Gaza.
It remains a highly contentious issue, including within the Palestinian leadership.
Israel has said repeatedly that it will not allow Hamas to run the territory ever again.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, Netanyahu said: “I’m not going to agree to end the war before we remove Hamas.”
He added Israel is “not going to leave them in power in Gaza, 30 miles from Tel Aviv. It’s not going to happen.”
Netanyahu has also repeatedly stated that he does not want to withdraw Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land cleared and controlled by Israel along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
The war in Gaza was sparked by Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel, during which militants seized 251 hostages.
Ninety-six of them are still being held in Gaza, including 34 the army says are dead.
The attack resulted in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 45,361 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
Syria authorities say torched 1 million captagon pills
- Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war
- Stimulant has flooded the black market across the region in recent years
DAMASCUS: Syria’s new authorities torched a large stockpile of drugs on Wednesday, two security officials told AFP, including one million pills of captagon, whose industrial-scale production flourished under ousted president Bashar Assad.
Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war, effectively turning it into a narco state under Assad.
“We found a large quantity of captagon, around one million pills,” said a balaclava-wearing member of the security forces, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Osama, and whose khaki uniform bore a “public security” patch.
An AFP journalist saw forces pour fuel over and set fire to a cache of cannabis, the painkiller tramadol, and around 50 bags of pink and yellow captagon pills in a security compound formerly belonging to Assad’s forces in the capital’s Kafr Sousa district.
Captagon has flooded the black market across the region in recent years.
“The security forces of the new government discovered a drug warehouse as they were inspecting the security quarter,” said another member of the security forces, who identified himself as Hamza.
Authorities destroyed the stocks of alcohol, cannabis, captagon and hashish in order to “protect Syrian society” and “cut off smuggling routes used by Assad family businesses,” he added.
Syria’s new rulers have yet to spell out their policy on alcohol, which has long been widely available in the country.
Since a militant alliance toppled Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, Syria’s new authorities have said massive quantities of captagon have been found in former government sites around the country, including security branches.
AFP journalists in Syria have seen fighters from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) set fire to what they said were stashes of captagon found at facilities once operated by Assad’s forces.
Security force member Hamza confirmed Wednesday that “this is not the first initiative of its kind — the security services, in a number of locations, have found other warehouses... and drug manufacturing sites and destroyed them in the appropriate manner.”
Maher Assad, a military commander and the brother of Bashar Assad, is widely accused of being the power behind the lucrative captagon trade.
Experts believe Syria’s former leader used the threat of drug-fueled unrest to put pressure on Arab governments.
Jordan in recent years has cracked down on the smuggling of weapons and drugs including captagon along its 375-kilometer (230-mile) border with Syria.
UK to host Israel-Palestine peace summit
- PM Starmer drawing on experience working on Northern Ireland peace process
- G7 fund to unlock financing for reconciliation projects
LONDON: The UK will host an international summit early next year aimed at bringing long-term peace to Israel and Palestine, The Independent reported.
The event will launch the International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace, which is backed by the Alliance for Middle East Peace, containing more than 160 organizations engaged in peacebuilding between Israelis and Palestinians.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who worked on the Northern Ireland peace process, ordered Foreign Secretary David Lammy to begin work on hosting the summit.
The fund being unlocked alongside the summit pools money from G7 countries to build “an environment conducive to peacemaking.” The US opened the fund with a $250 million donation in 2020.
As part of peacebuilding efforts, the fund supports projects “to help build the foundation for peaceful co-existence between Israelis and Palestinians and for a sustainable two-state solution.”
It also supports reconciliation between Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel, as well as the development of the Palestinian private sector in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Young Israelis and Palestinians will meet and work together during internships in G7 countries as part of the scheme.
Former Labour Shadow Middle East Minister Wayne David and ex-Conservative Middle East Minister Alistair Burt said the fund is vital in bringing an end to the conflict.
In a joint piece for The Independent, they said: “The prime minister’s pledge reflects growing global momentum to support peacebuilding efforts from the ground up, ensuring that the voices of those who have long worked for equality, security and dignity for all are not only heard, but are actively shaping the societal and political conditions that real conflict resolution will require.
“Starmer’s announcement that the foreign secretary will host an inaugural meeting in London to support peacebuilders is a vital first step … This meeting will help to solidify the UK’s role as a leader in shaping the future of the region.”
The fund is modeled on the International Fund for Ireland, which spurred peacebuilding efforts in the lead-up to the 1999 Good Friday Agreement. Starmer is drawing inspiration from his work in Northern Ireland to shape the scheme.
He served as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board from 2003-2007, monitoring the service’s compliance with human rights law introduced through the Good Friday Agreement.
David and Burt said the UK is “a natural convener” for the new scheme, adding: “That role is needed now more than ever.”
They said: “The British government is in a good position to do this for three reasons: Firstly, the very public reaching out to diplomatic partners, and joint ministerial visits, emphasises the government turning a page on its key relationships.
“Secondly, Britain retains a significant influence in the Middle East, often bridging across those who may have differences with each other. And, thirdly, there is the experience of Northern Ireland.
“Because of his personal and professional engagement with Northern Ireland, Keir Starmer is fully aware of the important role civil society has played in helping to lay the foundations for peace.”
Erdogan announces plans to open Turkish consulate in Aleppo
- Erdogan also issued a stern warning to Kurdish militants in Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that Turkiye will soon open a consulate in Syria's Aleppo.
Erdogan also issued a stern warning to Kurdish militants in Syria, stating they must either "lay down their weapons or be buried in Syrian lands with their weapons."
The remarks underscore Turkiye's firm stance on combating Kurdish groups it views as a threat to its national security.