LONDON: Britain is getting a new prime minister. Buckle up for a rocky ride.
On Tuesday, the UK’s governing Conservatives will announce the winner of a contest to replace Theresa May as leader of the party and the country. Just over three months later, on Oct. 31, Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union.
With the new British leader on a collision course with both the EU and Britain’s Parliament over Brexit, the UK could be heading for a political crisis, a recession, an election, a referendum — or several of those options at the same time.
“It’s a very fluid situation, said Nick Wright, an expert on EU politics at University College London. “Literally, anything could happen.”
Enter Boris
Barring a major upset, Britain’s next prime minister will be Boris Johnson. The buoyant former foreign secretary is so far ahead with bookies and pollsters that it will be a huge shock if rival Jeremy Hunt is declared the victor on Tuesday.
Johnson, who sometimes has an ambiguous relationship with facts, campaigned with characteristic bluster, vowing to revive the country’s “mojo” and making one main promise: Britain will leave the EU on Oct. 31, “come what may.”
He may find that promise hard to keep. The new leader heads a government with no parliamentary majority in a deeply divided country that is facing off with a mistrustful EU.
Immediate challenge
The prime minister is due to take office Wednesday in a smoothly choreographed political handover. May will travel to Buckingham Palace and ask Queen Elizabeth II to invite her Conservative successor to form a government. Johnson — or, less likely, Hunt — will speak to the nation in front of his new home at 10 Downing St. that afternoon.
The new leader could face a challenge before he’s even had a chance to unpack. The opposition Labour Party is considering calling a no-confidence vote in the Conservative government on Thursday. It would only take a handful of Conservative rebels to defeat the government and — unless it can overturn that vote within 14 days — trigger an early election.
The good news for the prime minister is that Parliament is due to start its six-week summer break on Friday and Labour will probably decide to wait until the fall before making a move.
Make me an offer
Both Johnson and Hunt say they will immediately start talks with the EU about changing the Brexit withdrawal agreement agreed upon by May’s government, a pact that has been rejected three times by Britain’s Parliament.
Yet Britain may struggle to get the bloc’s full attention during August, a sleepy holiday period in much of Europe. And in any case, EU leaders have insisted they won’t renegotiate. They also have a special distrust for Johnson, who began his career as a Brussels-based journalist spinning exaggerated stories of outrageous EU red tape for a British newspaper.
Johnson, like Hunt, says the key to winning Parliament’s backing for a Brexit deal is to ditch the “backstop,” an insurance policy designed to guarantee that the UK’s only land border with the EU — between Northern Ireland and Ireland — remains free of customs posts and other obstacles.
The EU, however, is adamant that without the backstop there can be no deal.
“Part of me thinks that Prime Minister Boris Johnson thinks he can just get away with it through sheer force of personality,” Wright said. “But I don’t see why the EU would make compromises to him that they wouldn’t make to Theresa May.”
Destination no deal
The new leader’s EU negotiations will go hand-in-hand with intensified British planning for a no-deal exit: bolstering border staff, working with businesses and reassuring the public. Johnson claims that if Britain prepares properly, a no-deal Brexit will be “vanishingly inexpensive.”
Experts disagree. The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility said last week that crashing out of the bloc would shrink the British economy by 2% within a year, drive down the pound currency and plunge Britain into a prolonged recession.
Leaving without a deal would mean tariffs and customs checks for goods traveling between Britain and the EU, and would rip up thousands of rules governing everything from trade to aviation to telecommunications.
The House of Commons Exiting the European Union Committee says a no-deal Brexit “could lead to severe disruption of the economy, pose a fundamental risk to the competitiveness of key sectors of the UK economy and put many jobs and livelihoods at risk.”
Halloween showdown
While some British lawmakers think the dire warnings are exaggerated, a majority is determined to halt a no-deal Brexit. In a pre-emptive strike, lawmakers last week passed a measure that prevents the new prime minister from suspending Parliament in the fall — something Johnson has suggested he could do if legislators try to stop Brexit.
But halting a prime minister who is determined to press for a no-deal Brexit could be hard. By law, Britain will cease to be a member of the EU on Oct. 31, with or without a deal, unless Britain revokes its decision or the EU grants a delay.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said last week that the chances of a no-deal Brexit have been “underpriced.”
“I think it’s the will of many members of Parliament for there to be a deal. But the question then will be ‘is there a deal that is palatable to Parliament?’” he told Parliament’s Leaving the European Union Committee. “And if not, will Parliament vote to revoke or will we leave with no deal?”
Unpredictable outcome
The crisis could come to a head at an EU summit on Oct. 17, just two weeks before Brexit day. EU leaders are sick of the Brexit soap opera, and could resist if Britain asks for a further delay. Newly elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Britain can have an extension if it’s for a strong reason such as an election or a new referendum.
Britain is not scheduled to have an election until 2022, but could hold an early poll if the government loses a no-confidence vote, or if the prime minister calls one to seek a mandate for his version of Brexit.
An election might shake up Parliament and break the Brexit deadlock, but could also result in yet another divided legislature. Another potential deadlock-breaker, a new referendum on Britain’s EU membership, could settle the issue, or prove as divisive as the last.
Once Britain does leave the bloc, its leader faces a fresh set of challenges in negotiating new trade deals around the world. The most coveted deal is with the United States, but “America First” President Donald Trump is guaranteed to drive a hard bargain.
A visit to Washington will be high on the new prime minister’s agenda. Trump has warmly praised Johnson, but he can be a fickle friend.
Inconsistency of speech is something he and Johnson have in common.
Johnson may be hoping no one reminds Trump that in 2015 he accused him of “stupefying ignorance” and said Trump was “unfit to hold the office of president of the United States.”
Last month, Johnson said the American president had “many good qualities.”
With Boris Johnson tipped to win PM race, UK eyes rocky ride
With Boris Johnson tipped to win PM race, UK eyes rocky ride
- With the new British leader on a collision course with both the EU and Britain’s Parliament over Brexit, the UK could be heading for a political crisis, a recession, an election, a referendum
- Johnson may be hoping no one reminds Trump that in 2015 he accused him of “stupefying ignorance”
International Criminal Court chief lashes out at US, Russia over threats and accusations
- Judge Tomoko Akane: ‘The court is being threatened with draconian economic sanctions by another permanent member of the Security Council as if it was a terrorist organization’
THE HAGUE, Netherlands: The president of the International Criminal Court lashed out at the United States and Russia for interfering with its investigations, calling threats and attacks on the court “appalling.”
“The court is being threatened with draconian economic sanctions by another permanent member of the Security Council as if it was a terrorist organization,” Judge Tomoko Akane, in her address to the institution’s annual meeting, which opened on Monday.
Akane was referring to remarks made by US Sen. Lindsey Graham, whose Republican party will control both branches of Congress in January, and who called the court a “dangerous joke” and urged Congress to sanction its prosecutor. “To any ally, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, if you try to help the ICC, we’re going to sanction you,” Graham said on Fox News.
This marks the first time the global court of justice calls out a sitting leader of a major Western all.
Graham was angered by an announcement last month that judges had granted a request from the court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister and Hamas’ military chief for crimes against humanity in connection with the nearly 14-month war in Gaza.
The decision has been denounced by critics of the court and given only milquetoast approval by many of its supporters, a stark contrast to the robust backing of an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin last year over war crimes in Ukraine.
Graham’s threat isn’t seen as just empty words. President-elect Donald Trump sanctioned the court’s previous prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, with a travel ban and asset freeze for investigating American troops and intelligence officials in Afghanistan.
Akane on Monday also had harsh words for Russia. “Several elected officials are being subjected to arrest warrants from a permanent member of the Security Council,” she said. Moscow issued warrants for Khan and others in response to the investigation into Putin.
The Assembly of States Parties, which represents the ICC’s 124 member countries, will convene its 23rd conference to elect committee members and approve the court’s budget against a backdrop of unfavorable headlines.
The ICC was established in 2002 as the world’s permanent court of last resort to prosecute individuals responsible for the most heinous atrocities — war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression. The court only becomes involved when nations are unable or unwilling to prosecute those crimes on their territory. To date, 124 countries have signed on to the Rome Statute, which created the institution. Those who have not include Israel, Russia and China.
The ICC has no police force and relies on member states to execute arrest warrants.
US President Joe Biden called the warrants for Netanyahu and the former defense minister “outrageous” and vowed to stand with Israel. A year ago, Biden called the warrant for Putin “justified” and said the Russian president had committed war crimes. The US is not an ICC member country.
France said it would “respect its obligations” but would need to consider Netanyahu’s possible immunities. When the warrant for Putin was announced, France said it would “lend its support to the essential work” of the court. Another member country, Austria, begrudgingly acknowledged it would arrest Netanyahu but called the warrants “utterly incomprehensible.” Italy called them “wrong” but said it would be obliged to arrest him. Germany said it would study the decision. Member Hungary has said it would stand with Israel instead of the court.
Global security expert Janina Dill worried that such responses could undermine global justice efforts. “It really has the potential to damage not just the court, but international law,” she said.
Milena Sterio, an expert in international law at Cleveland State University, told the AP that sanctions against the court could affect a number of people who contribute to the court’s work, such as international human rights lawyer Amal Clooney. Clooney advised the current prosecutor on his request for the warrants for Netanyahu and others.
“Sanctions are a huge burden,” Sterio said.
Also hanging heavy over the meeting in the Hague, are the internal pressures that Khan faces. In October, the AP reported the 54-year-old British lawyer is facing allegations he tried to coerce a female aide into a sexual relationship and groped her.
Two co-workers in whom the woman confided reported the alleged misconduct in May to the court’s independent watchdog, which says it interviewed the woman and ended its inquiry after five days when she opted against filing a formal complaint. Khan was never questioned. He has denied the claims.
The Assembly of States Parties has announced it will launch an external probe into the allegations. It’s not clear if the investigation will be addressed during the meeting.
The court, which has long faced accusations of ineffectiveness, will have no trials pending after two conclude in December. While it has issued a number of arrest warrants in recent months, many high-profile suspects remain at large.
Member states don’t always act. Mongolia refused to arrest Putin when he visited in September. Sudan’s former President Omar Al-Bashir is wanted by the ICC over accusations related to the conflict in Darfur, but his country has refused to hand him over. Last week, Khan requested a warrant for the head of Myanmar’s military regime, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, for attacks against the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority. Judges have yet to decide on that request.
“It becomes very difficult to justify the court’s existence,” Sterio said.
‘Stampedes’ kill 56 at Guinea football match: government
- Local media said the match in the southeastern city was part of a tournament organized in honor of Guinea’s junta leader
CONAKRY: Stampedes at a football match killed 56 people in Guinea’s second-largest city of N’Zerekore, the junta-controlled government said Monday.
“Protests of dissatisfaction with refereeing decisions led to stone-throwing by supporters, resulting in fatal stampedes” at Sunday’s match, the government statement said, which was published as a news ticker on national television.
“Hospital services have put the provisional death toll at 56,” it added.
Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah condemned the “incidents that marred the match between the teams of Labe and N’Zerekore,” in a post on Facebook.
“The government is following the situation and reiterates its call for calm so as not to impede hospital services from aiding the injured,” he added.
Local media said the match in the southeastern city was part of a tournament organized in honor of Guinea’s junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 coup and has installed himself as president.
Such tournaments have become common in the West African nation as Doumbouya eyes a potential run in presidential elections expected next year and political alliances form.
Migrant arrests at US borders with Mexico and Canada fell in November, senior official says
- US Border Patrol arrested some 47,000 migrants illegally crossing the US-Mexico border in November
- At the border with Canada, about 700 migrants were caught crossing illegally, down from 1,300 in October
WASHINGTON: The number of migrants caught illegally crossing the US borders with Mexico and Canada fell in November, a senior US border official said, part of a months-long trend that undercuts President-elect Donald Trump’s claim illegal immigration is out of control.
US Border Patrol arrested some 47,000 migrants illegally crossing the US-Mexico border in November, according to a preliminary tally, the US Customs and Border Protection official said on Sunday, requesting anonymity to share unpublished data. The figure is a decrease from nearly 57,000 in October and the lowest monthly total since July 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic and when Trump was still in office.
At the border with Canada, about 700 migrants were caught crossing illegally, down from 1,300 in October, the official said.
Trump, a Republican who recaptured the White House last month, has promised to crack down on illegal immigration and criticized Democratic President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for record numbers of migrants caught illegally crossing during Biden’s administration. In a Truth Social post last week, Trump vowed to impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada unless the countries stop migrants and illicit fentanyl from entering the US, a move that could trigger a trade war if Trump follows through when he takes office on Jan. 20. In response, Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum warned the tariffs would have dire consequences for both countries and suggested possible retaliation. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on Friday. US arrests of migrants at the Mexico border have fallen dramatically since Biden imposed restrictions in June that blocked most people crossing illegally from claiming asylum. At the same time, Mexico has stepped up immigration enforcement, stopping hundreds of thousands of migrants en route to the US since January.
“We really think these sustained reductions demonstrate the continued success of our work to strengthen international collaboration to address migration,” the official said.
In his Nov. 25 Truth Social post, Trump said a migrant caravan moving through Mexico appeared to be “unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border.”
However, the group, which had totaled several thousand migrants in southern Mexico, has seen its numbers and momentum decrease in recent days.
“Usually by the time they make it even 100 miles (161 km) north into Mexico, they’ve effectively been dissipated by the Mexican government,” the Customs and Border Protection official said.
Biden also has opened up new legal pathways in recent years that have allowed some 1.4 million migrants to enter by air or schedule an appointment to request entry at the US-Mexico border as of October. Trump has criticized Biden’s asylum restrictions, which mirror policies from Trump’s first term, as too lax and is expected to immediately roll back the legal entry programs.
The official said the US had taken steps in November to more quickly return migrants to Canada under an existing “safe third country” asylum agreement, which had led to a dropoff in illegal crossings.
Thailand, Malaysia brace for fresh wave of floods as water levels ease
- More than half a million households in the neighboring countries have been hit by torrential rain and flooding
KUALA LUMPUR/BANGKOK: Malaysia and Thailand are facing a second wave of heavy rain and potential flooding this week, authorities said on Monday, even as some displaced residents were able to return home and the worst floods in decades began receding in some areas.
Since last week, 27 people have died and more than half a million households in the neighboring Southeast Asian countries have been hit by torrential rain and flooding that authorities say have been the most severe in decades.
The immediate situation has improved in some areas and water levels have eased, according to government data on Monday.
In Malaysia, the number of people in evacuation shelters dropped to around 128,000 people, from 152,000 on Sunday, the disaster management agency’s website showed.
The northeastern state of Kelantan, which has been the worst hit, was expected to face a fresh deluge from Dec. 4, the chief minister’s office said in a Facebook post on Sunday.
“Although floodwater trends show a slight decrease, (the chief minister) stressed that vigilance measures must remain at the highest level,” the post said.
Meanwhile, in southern Thailand, 434,000 households remain affected, the country’s interior ministry said in a statement on Monday, down by about 100,000 from the weekend.
The government has provided food and supplies for those in the flood-hit areas, the ministry said, adding water levels in seven provinces were decreasing.
Thailand’s Meteorological Department said people in the country’s lower south should beware of heavy to very heavy rains and possible flash flooding and overflows, especially along foothills near waterways and lowlands, between Dec. 3-5.
Philippine groups seek impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte
- Complaint filed on grounds of grave misconduct and constitutional violations
MANILA: An alliance of civil society groups in the Philippines filed an impeachment complaint on Monday against Vice President Sara Duterte, on grounds of grave misconduct and constitutional violations.
The daughter of firebrand former President Rodrigo Duterte has been embroiled in a bitter row with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and is the subject of an enquiry into her spending by the House of Representatives. She denies wrongdoing.
Monday’s complainants included civil society and religious leaders, as well as former government officials critical of her father.
“The Vice President has reduced public office to a platform for violent rhetoric, personal enrichment, elitist entitlement and a shield for impunity,” Teresita Quintos Deles, one of the complainants, said in a statement.
A representative of the Akbayan opposition party endorsed the complaint in the Philippine House of Representatives.
Duterte’s office said requests for comment had been relayed to the vice president.
The impeachment bid is the latest twist in a high-profile row among three of the Philippines’ highest office-holders, after the collapse of a powerful alliance between their families led to Marcos’ landslide win in the 2022 election.
“This impeachment is not just a legal battle but a moral crusade to restore dignity and decency to public service,” said Leila de Lima, a spokesperson for the complainants and a staunch critic of an anti-narcotics campaign run by Duterte’s father.
The complaint accused Duterte of violating the Philippine constitution by refusing to attend hearings on her budget which violated the system of checks and balances, and graft, both as vice president’s office and when she was the education minister.
It also accused her of gross incompetence and dereliction of duty.
Sara Duterte recently said she had contracted someone to kill Marcos, his wife and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, the president’s cousin, if she herself were to be killed. Later she said the remarks had been taken out of context.
On Friday, in remarks that drew criticism from some lawmakers, Marcos said any impeachment complaint against his estranged vice president would only distract Congress and not help people.
The Philippines’ lower chamber of congress is dominated by allies of Marcos, which could allow her impeachment to go through the lower chamber before an impeachment trial in the Senate.
