SHANGHAI: Volatility in China’s yuan since August is a normal market reaction to escalating trade frictions stoked by the US and was caused, to some extent, by Washington’s decision to raise tariffs, a senior Chinese central bank official said.
Zhu Jun, director-general of the People’s Bank of China’s international department, made the comments to a forum held in the northern Chinese province of Heilongjiang.
The US Treasury Department on Monday labeled China a currency manipulator, hours after China let the yuan drop through a key support level to its lowest point in more than a decade. The moves jolted financial markets, fueling fears of a global currency war.
Days earlier, US President Donald Trump had vowed to impose a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, ending a temporary truce and sharply escalating the trade dispute.
Zhu said that the yuan’s move was a normal reaction to Trump’s tariff threat. “The labeling ... violates basic, common economic sense and international consensus, and is unconvincing,” Zhu said, adding that the Chinese economy was resilient and capable of coping with various situations.
The year-long trade war between the world’s two largest economies has already spread beyond tit-for-tat tariffs on goods to other areas such as technology, and analysts caution retaliation could widen in scope and severity, weighing further on business confidence and global economic growth.
The yuan lost 1.6 percent against the dollar last week, but there were signs in the last few sessions that authorities were trying to stabilize it.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been reluctant to comment on the US move. The US is the IMF’s largest shareholder and has strong sway over who will be its new leader after Christine Lagarde resigned last month.
A US Treasury official said Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke with IMF Acting Managing Director David Lipton this week by telephone about currency consultations and also about the leadership succession.
On Friday, the head of the IMF’s China department, James Daniel, stood by the fund’s assessment last month in a report on currencies and trade balances that the value of China’s yuan was broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
He provided no clues to the path forward on the IMF’s engagement with Treasury.
“Our discussions with the US Treasury are ongoing on a range of issues,” Daniel told reporters on a conference call about the IMF’s annual review of China’s economic policies.
G7 officials have also declined to discuss the issue despite repeated queries.
Prominent economists, including former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, say there is no evidence to support the move.
China’s global current account surplus is close to zero and Beijing has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up the yuan’s value in the face of mounting tariff pressures.
For the moment, European nations are in no mood to aggravate China or support Trump given his threats to impose tariffs on EU exports, said Stephanie Segal, a former senior Treasury official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Any attempt to intervene on currency markets would be difficult to do alone, Segal said.
“Currency markets are just too big to act unilaterally, even if it’s the United States,” she said. “It’s not sustainable.”
Naoyuki Yoshino, dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute and former chairman of the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s council on foreign exchange, said the announcement was all about politics, not economic fundamentals.
“The best solution is (for China) to open its capital market,” he said. “Then, if their exports keep on going, capital inflows will come and then the (yuan) should automatically appreciate,” he said.
This currency move would not be the first time that the Trump administration has ignored established policy-making protocols to carry out the president’s directives.
Philip Diehl, a former senior US Treasury official who ran the US Mint when China was last labeled a currency manipulator in 1994, said the designation followed intense deliberations within the Treasury and State Departments that also weighed human rights issues.
He said the Trump administration’s actions call into question the legitimacy of the whole process for evaluating currency manipulations.
“They’re not well thought out, they’re impulsive and they do not appear to be coordinated with our allies,” Diehl said.
Volatility in China’s yuan linked to US trade friction
Volatility in China’s yuan linked to US trade friction
- The US is the IMF’s largest shareholder and has strong sway over who will be its new leader after Christine Lagarde resigned last month
Oil Updates – prices little changed as market weighs mixed drivers
SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady for a second day on Wednesday as concerns about escalating hostilities in the Ukraine war potentially disrupting oil supply from Russia and signs of growing Chinese crude imports offset data showing US crude stocks rising.
Brent crude futures dipped 5 cents to $73.26 a barrel by 8:41 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures was flat at $69.39 per barrel.
The escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine has kept a floor under the market this week.
“We may expect (Brent) oil prices to stay supported above the $70 level for now, as market participants continue to monitor the geopolitical developments,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
On Tuesday, Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, Moscow said. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the bar for a possible nuclear attack.
“This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.
On the demand side, US crude oil stocks rose by 4.75 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.
That was a bigger build than the 100,000 barrel increase analysts polled by Reuters were expecting.
Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 2.48 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 900,000-barrel increase.
Distillate stocks also fell, shedding 688,000 barrels last week, the sources said.
Official government data is due later on Wednesday.
In a boost to oil price sentiment, there were signs that China, the world’s largest crude importer, may have stepped up oil purchases this month after a period of weak imports.
Data from vessel tracker Kpler showed China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, an analyst told Reuters.
Weak imports by China so far this year have pulled down oil prices, with Brent sinking 20 percent from its April peak of more than $92 a barrel.
Saudi Arabia raises $910m in November sukuk offering
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center has completed its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for November, raising SR3.41 billion ($910 million), a 28.19 percent year-on-year increase.
In October, the Kingdom issued sukuk worth SR7.83 billion, while the figures for September and August were SR2.6 billion and SR6.01 billion, respectively.
Sukuk, also known as Islamic bonds, are Shariah-compliant debt products that allow investors to gain partial ownership of an issuer’s assets until maturity.
Saudi Arabia’s consistent sukuk issuances align with a report released by Moody’s in September, which stated that the global markets for these Islamic bonds are expected to remain strong in 2024.
The report also projected that the issuance of Shariah-compliant bonds could reach between $200 billion and $210 billion this year, up from just under $200 billion in 2023.
According to a statement by the NDMC, the November sukuk issuance was divided into five tranches. The first tranche, valued at SR2.52 billion, is set to mature in 2029.
The second tranche was valued at SR434 million and will mature in 2031, while the third tranche amounted to SR137 million, with a maturity date in 2034.
NDMC stated that the fourth tranche, sized at SR10 million, is scheduled to mature in 2036. The fifth tranche, valued at SR310 million, will mature in 2039.
A report by Fitch Ratings in October highlighted that sukuk issuances are on the rise, driven by improving financing conditions following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts to 5 percent in September.
Fitch noted that global sukuk outstanding reached $900 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2024, an 8.5 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023.
The report further projected that interest rates could decline to 4.5 percent by the end of 2024 and 3.5 percent in 2025, likely boosting sukuk issuances in the short term.
In August, Fitch reported that the UK remains a significant hub for Islamic finance, with the London Stock Exchange ranking as the third-largest listing venue for US dollar sukuk globally.
Saudi Arabia’s continued momentum in sukuk issuances reflects its commitment to developing the Islamic finance market as a core component of its Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.
Developing nations push for action on COP29 financing shortfalls
RIYADH: Developed nations are facing growing pressure at COP29 to honor their climate finance commitments, as developing countries push for action to address the severe shortfalls in adaptation funding and the escalating environmental challenges they face.
The ongoing dispute centers around how much support developed nations will provide to poorer countries in their efforts to combat the impacts of climate change.
Representatives from vulnerable nations have emphasized the urgent need for concrete financial commitments, highlighting the widening gaps in adaptation funding.
Financing gaps undermine efforts
Kenya called for an end to the adaptation finance gap, urging increased financial flows to meet the continent’s needs. “Developing countries are not receiving the resources they need,” said Kenya’s representative. “Africa’s adaptation needs are the highest globally, estimated at $845 billion between 2020 and 2035, yet we receive less than a quarter of that annually.”
Bangladesh echoed these concerns, revealing a stark $5.5 billion annual shortfall in funding for resilience projects. “This gap must be filled through grant-based and external finance,” said Bangladesh’s representative.
Several developed nations have outlined their efforts to scale up adaptation financing. Germany highlighted that 30 percent of the EU’s current seven-year budget is allocated to climate-related initiatives, including $30 billion for nationally determined contributions and climate goals, and $12 billion for public climate adaptation finance.
France pledged €2 billion annually by 2025 for adaptation in developing countries, exceeding its previous commitments. Canada reported progress toward its goal of doubling adaptation finance by 2025, as per the Glasgow Climate Pact, but acknowledged the need for more expansive action. “Public finance alone won’t suffice,” said Canada’s representative. “We need coordinated global efforts, innovative instruments, and stronger policy signals to ramp up climate-resilient investments,” the representative continued.
UAE calls for scaling up adaptation finance
“The outcome of the first global stocktake under the UAE consensus underscores a stark reality: we are not on track to meet the adaptation needs of developing countries,” said the UAE’s representative. “Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable communities who have contributed the least to global emissions. Adaptation is not a choice, but a necessity,” he continued.
The UAE underscored the widening adaptation finance gap, which is estimated to reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually by 2030.
“A critical component of COP28 was the UAE framework for global climate resilience, establishing targets for adaptation planning and implementation,” the representative noted. The UAE consensus calls for all parties to have national adaptation plans in place by 2025, with tangible progress on implementation by 2030.
“We urge developed countries to significantly scale up adaptation finance beyond the doubling committed at COP26,” the UAE added.
“This scaling up is crucial to meet the urgent and growing needs of developing countries.”
Rejecting allegations of involvement in the Sudanese conflict, the UAE reaffirmed its commitment to humanitarian aid and efforts to support a legitimate, civilian-led government in Sudan.
“We reject these baseless claims and emphasize our continued support for de-escalation, ceasefires, and aiding Sudanese civilians,” said the representative.
Jordan called for “predictable and transparent commitments” and expedited disbursements, emphasizing the challenges faced by water-scarce nations grappling with severe droughts.
Sudan urged for technological transfer and funding to recover from devastating floods, which caused $48 million in damages this year. Palestine raised concerns about barriers to accessing climate funds, citing “non-technical issues” that prevent direct support despite eligibility.
Kazakhstan stressed the importance of concessional financing, saying, “We need mechanisms that are accessible and predictable to address vulnerabilities and ensure funds flow directly to communities.”
Developing countries call for urgent action
“Adaptation is not a choice but a necessity,” reiterated the UAE representative, highlighting the disproportionate burden borne by vulnerable nations.
Qatar called for creative solutions to close the adaptation finance gap, urging developed countries to double financial support and focus on the implementation phases to maximize impact.
China demanded that developed countries clarify timelines for doubling adaptation financing, stating, “They must deliver on their commitments and prioritize vulnerable nations.”
As COP29 unfolds, the debate over adaptation financing underscores the urgent need to bridge the gap between pledges and tangible action. The world’s most vulnerable communities are watching closely, demanding that words translate into real solutions.
GAMI showcases achievements at maritime forum in Dhahran
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industries highlighted its achievements in local military ship and boat manufacturing, as well as maintenance capabilities, at the 3rd International Saudi Maritime Forum.
In a press statement, GAMI noted that its pavilion also showcased specialized expertise in hull construction and system integration. Established in 2017, GAMI is tasked with regulating, monitoring, enabling, and licensing the Kingdom's military and security industries.
As part of its mission to strengthen the defense sector, GAMI aims to support the growth of Saudi Arabia's military industries and contribute to the country's economic development. The authority also plays a key role in achieving Saudi Vision 2030 by aiming to localize more than 50 percent of government defense spending by 2030.
The GAMI pavilion, inaugurated by Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al-Hammad, GAMI’s deputy governor for strategic planning and execution, was presented to over 55 national and international organizations from 22 countries, including military specialists and academics from both Saudi Arabia and abroad.
The 3rd Saudi International Maritime Forum, organized by the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, kicked off on Nov. 19 in Dhahran and will run through Nov. 21.
The forum is focusing on key developments in regional and international maritime security, while also highlighting the latest technologies, equipment, and maritime systems at both local and global levels.
Saudi Arabia pledges support in combating global financial crimes
RIYADH: The global fight against money laundering, terrorism financing, and the proliferation of arms remains a pressing issue, as Saudi Arabia’s central bank governor emphasized the need for international collaboration to address these challenges.
Ayman Al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Central Bank, reiterated the Kingdom’s commitment to advancing these efforts, stating, “We affirm Saudi Arabia’s keenness to unify joint regional efforts in combating money laundering, financing terrorism and the proliferation of arms, and overcoming the challenges facing all countries.”
His comments came during the conference on “The Latest Developments in Combating Money Laundering, Financing Terrorism, and the Proliferation of Arms,” held on the sidelines of the 39th General Meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force in Riyadh.
Marking the 20th anniversary of MENAFATF’s establishment, Al-Sayari highlighted its role in raising awareness and supporting regional adherence to international standards. “Today we celebrate the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the MENAFATF group, which has contributed to raising awareness, deepening understanding of international requirements at the regional level, and helping relevant authorities enhance their commitment to these requirements,” he said.
Al-Sayari also praised Saudi Arabia’s domestic initiatives aimed at strengthening compliance and combating financial crimes.
“We commend the efforts of the relevant authorities in Saudi Arabia through standing committees to enhance efforts and raise commitment to international requirements,” he added.
According to a UN report, an estimated 2 to 5 percent of global gross domestic product—equivalent to $800 billion to $2 trillion—is laundered each year. However, the clandestine nature of money laundering makes it difficult to determine the exact volume of illicit funds in circulation.
Acknowledging the evolving nature of financial crimes, Al-Sayari emphasized the need for proactive legislative and regulatory measures. “In light of the rapid development of money laundering, terrorism financing, and arms proliferation methods, countries must strengthen their legislative and regulatory frameworks to keep pace with these fast-evolving challenges,” he said.
Al-Sayari also affirmed Saudi Arabia’s alignment with the Financial Action Task Force under Mexico’s presidency, reinforcing the Kingdom’s support for global efforts to combat illicit financial flows. “Saudi Arabia participates actively in the FATF’s discussions to ensure that cross-border transfers are more efficient, transparent, and comprehensive without compromising due diligence obligations and measures,” he added.
Elisa Madrazo, president of the FATF, also addressed the conference, highlighting the importance of coordinated global efforts to combat financial crimes. Her remarks underscored FATF’s ongoing commitment to fostering collaboration among member countries and ensuring adherence to international standards.
During the conference, Al-Sayari met with Madrazo to discuss recent developments and shared interests in anti-money laundering efforts, combating terrorist financing, and addressing the financing of arms proliferation.
