Global economic outlook darkens

A man lifts a boy for him to reach soap bubbles made by a street artist in Frankfurt. The US-China trade row has a major impact on German exports. (AFP)
Updated 13 August 2019
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Global economic outlook darkens

  • The auto industry is under pressure to meet lower greenhouse gas emissions limits imposed by the EU

BERLIN: The economic outlook has deteriorated worldwide as the trade dispute between the US and China escalates, a survey showed on Monday.
Germany’s Ifo economic institute said its quarterly survey among nearly 1,200 experts in more than 110 countries showed that its measures for current conditions and economic expectations have both worsened in the third quarter.
“The experts expect significantly weaker growth in world trade,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said, adding that trade expectations hit the lowest since the beginning of the tariff conflict last year.
“Respondents also expect weaker private consumption, lower investment activity, and declining short- and long-term interest rates,” Fuest said.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he was not ready to make a trade deal with China and even called a September round of talks into question, raising fresh doubts in financial markets that the dispute is unlikely to end anytime soon.
The US and China are important export destinations for German manufacturers, so the tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies is having a large impact on German goods producers.
The German economy, Europe’s largest, is widely expected to have contracted in the second quarter, and sentiment indicators suggest hardly any improvement in the third.
“We’re in the twilight zone of a marked economic slowdown and a recession,” said Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer.
Germany’s Federal Statistics Office will release preliminary gross domestic product figures for the April-June period on Wednesday. A Reuters Poll of analyst predicts a 0.1 percent contraction quarter-on-quarter.
Some of Europe’s troubles cannot be blamed on the trade dispute.

BACKGROUND

• The US and China are important export destinations for German manufacturers.

• The tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies is having a large impact on German goods producers.

• The German economy is widely expected to have contracted in the second quarter.

The auto industry is under pressure to meet lower greenhouse gas emissions limits imposed by the EU. Automakers had expected to rely on more fuel-efficient diesels to help meet the requirements, but saw diesel sales plunge after Volkswagen was caught in 2015 cheating on diesel emissions tests.
Another source of uncertainty is Britain’s impending departure from the EU, currently set for Oct. 31. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he wants to leave without an extension even if that means no divorce deal to smooth trade.
In an effort to ward off a steeper slowdown or possible recession, the European Central Bank has signaled it could provide more monetary stimulus at its Sept. 12 meeting, including new purchases of bonds, which pump newly created money into the economy. It’s a measure of Europe’s reversal of fortune that a four-year, €2.6 trillion ($2.9 trillion) bond purchase program was halted only in December.
“What is hurting German exports currently is the uncertainty which has spread across the globe and has also paralyzed many European economies,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist for Germany at ING.
“Looking ahead, the outlook for German exporters is clearly in the hands of the US and China.”


Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects

Updated 29 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s property market set for growth with billions in new projects

  • The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region
  • At least 50 percent of the country’s tourism is expected be centered in Riyadh

RIYADH: The Saudi real estate landscape is poised for substantial growth, as industry leaders, policymakers, and investors gathered at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh to unveil major developments in property investment and tourism.

Highlighting the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 objectives, Asir Gov. Prince Turki bin Talal revealed the Public Investment Fund is spearheading nine major projects in the region, with four already launched and five in progress. “The largest PIF projects in the Kingdom are in the Asir region,” the governor said, emphasizing the region’s pivotal role in Saudi Arabia’s evolving property market.

The governor highlighted the region’s growing hospitality sector, with between 6,000 and 8,000 approved hotel rooms currently available. 

He also announced that Abha’s World Cup bid had been officially recognized as the best in the Kingdom by the Ministry of Sports. 

Meanwhile, Al-Ahsa Gov. Prince Saud bin Talal unveiled plans to expand the region’s hospitality offerings. “Our pipeline includes over seven or eight hotels and more than 25 rural lodges, including three five-star hotels: Hilton, Radisson Blu, and Hilton Garden Inn,” he said. Saudi Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb noted the rapid expansion of the Kingdom’s hospitality industry, with hotel room capacity expected to grow from 475,000 to 675,000 by 2030. Al-Khateeb also discussed the impact of major infrastructure projects, such as the King Salman International Airport expansion and the launch of Riyadh Air, which are central to the Kingdom’s hyper-tourism strategy. 

He forecast that at least 50 percent of the country’s tourism will be centered in Riyadh, but emphasized efforts to keep the capital’s share from exceeding 80-90 percent. In the financial sector, Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the Capital Market Authority, discussed the increasing role of real estate in the Kingdom’s investment market. 

“Around 20 percent of the 55 initial public offerings currently under review involve real estate companies,” he revealed. 

El-Kuwaiz emphasized the importance of financial stability and transparency for companies looking to list, advising them to treat investors as partners. 

In a significant move, he also announced that listed companies owning properties in Makkah and Madinah can now welcome foreign investors immediately.


SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push

Updated 28 January 2025
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SAMA permits full public launch of STC Bank in digitalization push

RIYADH: The Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, has authorized STC Bank to launch its full operations in Saudi Arabia.

As the first licensed digital bank in the Kingdom, STC Bank’s approval marks a significant step in SAMA’s ongoing strategy to accelerate digital transformation and enhance competitiveness in the banking sector.

At the same time, the move ensures the safeguarding of financial stability, according to a press statement from the central bank.

This milestone underscores the growing dynamism and potential of Saudi Arabia’s digital economy, while also highlighting SAMA’s efforts to create a regulatory framework that fosters innovation within the financial sector.

“SAMA is committed to strengthening the resilience of the banking sector, boosting its appeal, and increasing its role in achieving Saudi Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s broader national objectives. This includes empowering entrepreneurs and financial institutions to deliver innovative financial services to the Saudi market,” the central bank said.

The approval follows a significant step taken in April 2024, when SAMA formally approved the transition of STC Pay — the mobile financial services arm of Saudi Telecom Co. — to STC Bank. Following a nine-month beta launch, STC Bank is now poised to begin its full banking operations.

Additionally, in December 2024, SAMA also gave the green light to D360 Bank, another digital financial institution, allowing it to begin its operations in the Kingdom.


Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability

Updated 28 January 2025
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Al-Habtoor Group halts investment plans in Lebanon amid growing instability

DUBAI: UAE-based business conglomerate Al-Habtoor Group has abandoned its plans to reenter the Lebanese market, citing ongoing “unrest and instability” caused by armed militias.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, Khalaf Al-Habtoor, chairman of the group, explained that recent developments had deeply shaken his optimism.

“My team and I had been diligently preparing to launch new projects and expand existing investments in Lebanon, encouraged by promising signs such as the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as president and the nomination of Nawaf Salam as prime minister. Both individuals embody integrity, credibility, and respect, instilling renewed hope among the Lebanese people — and investors like myself — for the country’s future,” the statement read.

However, he said that the continued dominance of armed militias, particularly what he described as “Shiite militias”, and the “absence of rule of law” have made it impossible for investors to proceed with confidence.

Tensions escalated with Hezbollah supporters holding rallies in Beirut, including in Christian-majority neighborhoods, further raising sectarian divisions. The protests followed the return of Shiite residents to southern Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was recently extended.

In his statement, Al-Habtoor lamented the lack of decisive action from Lebanese authorities, including the army and the Ministry of Defense, in addressing these disturbances, noting that the situation was only worsening.

Unless the new government takes a firm stance against those working to destabilize the country, hopes for a “new Lebanon” will remain unfulfilled, he said.

Al-Habtoor clarified that the decision to pull out was made after careful analysis and close monitoring of the situation. As a result, neither he, his family, nor any group managers would be traveling to Lebanon.

Earlier this month, and following the wave of optimism that followed the election of President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Al-Habtoor told Arab News in an interview that his group intended to move forward with plans to reopen its five-story mall in Beirut and relaunch the Habtoorland amusement park in Jamhour, contingent on Lebanon’s government delivering the promised security and stability measures.

The group, a multibillion-dollar global conglomerate, has diverse interests spanning luxury hotels, shopping malls, and more. As of January last year, its investments in Lebanon were estimated at around $1 billion.


Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia

Updated 28 January 2025
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Experts predict suburban boom, smarter housing designs in Saudi Arabia

RIYADH: The rise of community living and the increased accessibility of suburbs, driven by advancements in transportation, are transforming real estate trends in Saudi Arabia, experts say.

At the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 28, Khaled Elsehamy, chief development officer for real estate at the National Housing Co., highlighted the significant shift in the Kingdom's real estate sector. According to Elsehamy, more people are now viewing suburban areas as attractive living options.

During a panel discussion, Elsehamy also noted a growing preference among Saudi residents for smaller housing units, moving away from the traditional multigenerational homes.

“Suburbs are becoming increasingly appealing,” Elsehamy said. “People now find areas outside the central cities more attractive due to their convenience, accessibility, and proximity to essential services. They can easily connect with the city whenever they wish.”

He continued: “The rising costs of utilities, furniture, and maintenance have led people to seek smaller, more efficient homes. There is a growing demand for durable, modular designs that offer long-term savings while meeting modern needs.”

Elsehamy’s remarks came just a day after NHC CEO Mohammad Al-Buty announced that lower interest rates in 2025 will help the company surpass its 2024 sales targets. This aligns with NHC’s broader ambition to become the leading real estate developer in the region and stay at the forefront of the industry.

Elsehamy also discussed the shifting mindset of Saudi homebuyers, noting a stark contrast to traditional purchasing habits. “In the past, people bought homes for their children and grandchildren. That’s no longer the case,” he explained.

“Today, people are looking for homes that fit different life stages. They think, ‘I’ll live in this house now, move to a bigger one later, and eventually downsize to a smaller place by the beach in 20 years.’”

The NHC official emphasized that community living is driving new trends in Saudi Arabia’s housing market. “Community living allows residents to interact more with those around them, and it often includes amenities like community centers where people can work, especially those with remote work options.”

Echoing these sentiments, Andrew Baum, emeritus professor at Oxford, also spoke during the panel, highlighting how modern homebuyers prioritize accessibility over location.

“Previously, location was everything in real estate,” said Baum. “But today, accessibility has become the key factor. The new metro in Riyadh is set to significantly impact property values, opening up newly accessible areas.”

Oussama Kabbani, group chief Development officer at ROSHN, emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector has reached a global standard post-Vision 2030. Reflecting on ROSHN’s approach to enhancing community living standards, Kabbani explained that understanding customer needs is central to their success.

“It all comes down to data and actively listening to your customers,” he said. “We conduct numerous surveys online and engage directly with residents to understand what’s missing. We focus a lot on creating activities for children, with educational and cultural events to keep them engaged.”

He continued: “We also place a strong emphasis on sports. It's not complicated — you don’t need to spend a fortune to make people happy. The key is knowing what makes them happy and delivering it with quality.”

Kabbani also noted the growing sophistication of the community real estate sector. He predicted that investments in senior living spaces, alongside data centers and healthcare facilities, would soon become more prominent.

“Our communities are designed with schools, community centers, playgrounds, and more,” Kabbani added. “When people choose to live in our communities, they’re not just buying a home — they’re buying a lifestyle. And we’re committed to ensuring that lifestyle is truly lived.”

During the session, Nasser Al-Kadi, chief investment officer at Awqaf Investment, praised the recent regulatory reforms in Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector, noting their positive impact on the market.

He emphasized the importance of embracing technological advancements to further modernize the sector. “The regulatory changes in Saudi Arabia have not only attracted external capital but also increased transparency within the industry,” Al-Kadi said.

He continued: “Technology isn’t just a tool for optimization — it’s a driver of growth and innovation. We haven’t yet seen the full potential of these technologies in the Kingdom’s real estate sector.”

Robert J. Di Franco, chief development officer at Roaya Co., also highlighted the growing influence of technology, stating that innovation is fundamentally reshaping every aspect of the real estate industry.

“Innovation and technology are shaping everything we do — from pre-acquisition phases to market analysis, accessing real-time transactional data, to how we manage construction projects and facility handovers. Technology is now integrated into every part of our process,” Di Franco said.


Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO

Updated 28 January 2025
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Foreign investments set to revive Makkah’s property market: Ladun CEO

RIYADH: Saudi construction firm Ladun Investment Co. expects a surge in Makkah’s real estate sector following a key ruling by the market regulator allowing foreign investment in Saudi-listed companies owning property in the holy cities. 

In an interview with Arab News at the Real Estate Future Forum in Riyadh, Hassan Al-Hazmi, CEO of the Tadawul-listed firm, emphasized that the new regulations are poised to drive investor confidence in Makkah’s market, which has faced stagnation in recent years. 

On the event’s opening day, the Kingdom’s Capital Market Authority announced that the Makkah and Madinah real estate markets will now be open to foreign investors. However, investments are limited to shares or convertible debt instruments of listed companies, with total non-Saudi ownership — individuals and legal entities — capped at 49 percent of a company’s shares. 

The decision is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s capital market and support the Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda. 

“As Mohammed El-Kuwaiz, chairman of the CMA, mentioned yesterday (Jan. 27), the regulations have been studied for more than three years. He said they were supposed to be approved two years ago but were delayed to make them more holistic. There is now a big study regarding foreign investors having ownership in Makkah, Madinah, and the Kingdom as a whole,” said Al-Hazmi. 

He said Ladun is focused on Makkah and anticipates growth. “We already manage and own assets in Makkah worth more than SR3.2 billion ($853.1 million).” 

Al-Hazmi noted that Makkah’s real estate sector had faced stagnation since 2014, particularly due to the impact of COVID-19 on religious tourism and travel. However, he believes that the sector is on the brink of recovery. 

“We already see signs of recovery — companies owning assets in Makkah are experiencing a rise in their share prices. This is very positive, and we anticipated this shift and planned accordingly,” he added. 

Ladun is also focused on localizing its workforce and increasing Saudi employment opportunities, aligning with government initiatives. 

“Just today, we signed an agreement with the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing regarding human capital and how we are going to localize more Saudis. At the managerial level, including our C-suite, we have Saudis,” Al-Hazmi said. 

He added: “In middle management, we have many young men and women who are part of our company, and they are truly giving us great empathy and trust in ourselves to move forward. This is one of the pillars of Vision 2030.” 

In November, Ladun announced a new investment in Jabal Omar Development Co. in partnership with Musharaka Capital, acquiring a land plot worth SR600 million with an expected revenue of approximately SR2 billion. This investment is viewed as a major step in reinforcing Ladun’s presence in Makkah’s evolving real estate market. 

Al-Hazmi also highlighted the broader impact of Vision 2030 on the Saudi real estate market, particularly in Makkah, which he sees as a prime beneficiary. 

“Stability brings prosperity, and Saudi has enjoyed stability for 100 years now, that brings prosperity. We see it. We see it around the region,” he said. 

Referring to comments made by Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Hazmi added: “Larry mentioned that if we take the US aside, we will find the most stable area in the world the GCC countries. Prosperity will be there.” 

With a focus on sustainable expansion, strategic investments, and market recovery, Ladun Investment Co. remains optimistic about its role in shaping Makkah’s future real estate landscape.