BEIRUT: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Friday said Ankara wants “a political solution to the Syrian crisis,” and that its soldiers “will not leave the besieged observation post south of Idlib” after Syrian regime forces took control of the area.
The recent advances by Bashar Assad’s forces have put Turkish troops stationed in the region in the firing line and displaced hundreds of thousands of people, threatening Ankara’s hopes of preventing a fresh wave of refugees on its southern border.
Speaking at a press conference in Lebanon, Cavusoglu said: “We are not there because we are unable to leave but because we do not want to.”
He denied that the Turkish forces are isolated in Morek, where their largest observation post is based. He said: “This post is not encircled, and no one can isolate it. The Syrian regime forces are leading activities in the vicinity of this post, we are discussing this with Russia and Iran.”
His comments followed a telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to the Anatolia Agency, Erdogan told Putin that the “developments in Idlib would cause a major humanitarian crisis” and “undermine the process of reaching a settlement in Syria and pose a serious threat to Turkish national security.”
Cavusoglu met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil.
Rafic Chlala, the media adviser to Aoun, told Arab News: “The Turkish official gave a presentation on the current military developments in Idlib, and a view of the future was delivered, but he did not ask anything from Lebanon.”
During a joint press conference with Bassil, Cavusoglu said: “Turkey will exchange experiences with Lebanon to return Syrian refugees to their country. Ankara understands Beirut’s suffering from the refugee crisis.”
He added: “Syrian refugees are afraid of returning to their country. This fear must be dispelled, and the international community should give greater importance to meeting the basic needs of Syrians.”
Lebanon hosts over 1 million Syrian refugees, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Beirut estimates the real figure is over 1.5 million.
Cavusoglu proposed “to organize a joint forum with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq on the return of Syrians and invite the international community to participate.”
During his meeting with Cavusoglu, Aoun said: “The international community’s continued disregard for the need for Syrian refugees to return to their country raises many questions.”
According to his media office, Aoun said the return of displaced people to their homes remains a common concern for Lebanon and Turkey. He reiterated that the provision of international assistance to refugees inside Syria is an important incentive for their return.
Aoun added: “Until now, Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria under the supervision of the Lebanese General Security did not suffer any persecution. The process of returning refugees will continue in turn.”
Cavusoglu said that Turkey shares Lebanon’s stance in supporting the return of refugees.
He told Aoun that Turkey will vote for Lebanon to establish the Human Academy for Encounter and Dialogue when the item is submitted to the UN on Sept. 13.
Berri’s media office said that talks with Cavusoglu included “the general situation in the region, the need to uphold the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, the importance of a political solution in Syria that ensures its unity and sovereignty and the return of refugees.”
Cavusoglu said: “Turkey views Lebanon as a neighbor and a sister country. The stability and growth of this country are very important for us and the region. We will continue to support Lebanon, and many Turkish energy companies want to invest there.”
The Turkish president will visit Moscow on Tuesday for a meeting with his Russian counterpart, the presidency said in a statement, days after a Turkish convoy was hit by an airstrike in Syria.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the Putin-Erdogan meeting on Aug. 27 to the Russian agencies.
Turkey vows not to quit besieged army post in Syria
Turkey vows not to quit besieged army post in Syria
- Calls for a ‘political solution’ to the crisis
Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
- Even the mere suggestion that Iran could close the strait if the US joins Israeli strikes has sent oil prices soaring
- Disruption to this strategic waterway could destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis, analysts warn
RIYADH: As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, 33-kilometer-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran carrying a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.
While this strategic waterway remains open for now, analysts have told Arab News any further escalation could put the vital shipping route at risk if Iran chooses to impose a blockade or attacks vessels.
A little over a week into the confrontation, which began on June 13 when Israel began striking Iran’s nuclear sites, scientists, military commanders and cities, daily exchanges of fire have killed hundreds.
Now, with threats of a maritime blockade looming should the US decide to join the conflict on Israel’s side, global energy markets are on edge. Any disruption could send prices skyrocketing, destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis.
“The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway; it is the artery of global energy. Any blockade would trigger a chain reaction the global economy is not prepared for,” Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari told Arab News.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, 20 million barrels of oil — 20 percent of global consumption — pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, along with one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade, primarily from Qatar.
The oil lane is so vital because no real alternatives exist. Most Gulf oil cannot be rerouted without massive delays. It is the only deep-water route capable of handling the world’s largest crude tankers.
The EIA has estimated that 84 percent of its crude flows to Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea as top buyers.
In February last year, the Washington-based Center for Security Policy analyzed Iran’s escalating activity in the Strait of Hormuz and said 76 percent of the crude oil transiting the waterway was destined for Asian markets.
When geopolitical tensions spiked over the past week after Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, Brent crude surged from $69 to $74 per barrel in a single day — even though no ships were blocked.
Jassem Ajaka, an economist and professor at the Lebanese University, said this shows just how sensitive markets are to the mere suggestion of instability.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably lead to a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to over $100, meaning the price will increase by about $25 in a single jump — something the global economy is not accustomed to,” Ajaka told Arab News.
He added: “Oil is a strategic and vital commodity, and when its price rises, inflation will rise with it because it is involved in 95 percent of other goods. The extraction of raw materials, the manufacturing of food products and other items will see their prices increase.”
Al-Ansari noted that “with Iran and Israel already in direct confrontation, the risk of escalation in this critical corridor is dangerously real. Iran sees the strait as its ultimate pressure point. Shutting it down would ignite a global oil shock, push inflation higher, and send vulnerable economies into panic.”
Ajaka explained high oil prices would confront central banks worldwide with a dilemma over whether to lower or raise interest rates. He added insurance prices would rise, contributing to inflation, and that it would also cause disruptions in supply chains across several countries.
“In the case of Lebanon, for example, it would result in a complete electricity blackout, as the country relies entirely on fuel oil coming from Iraq,” he added.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, moved 5.5 million barrels per day through Hormuz last year. That is 38 percent of total crude flows in the strait, according to tanker tracking data produced by the London-based real-time insights delivery firm, Vortexa.
While the Kingdom has contingency pipelines, they are not a perfect solution. The East-West Pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, can divert crude to the Red Sea, but it is already running near full capacity due to recent Houthi attacks on shipping.
The UAE’s Fujairah Pipeline, with 1.8 million barrels per day capacity, is also heavily used, leaving little to spare.
Iran’s Goreh-Jask Pipeline, designed for 300,000 barrels per day, is barely operational, having handled just 70,000 barrels per day before shutting down in late 2024.
If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, the EIA said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could only reroute about 2.6 million barrels per day — far less than the 20 million that normally passes through.
Given that the economies of most Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, rely heavily on oil exports, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would deal a severe blow to their economic stability, according to Ajaka. “The extent of the financial damage would hinge on how long the strait remains blocked, with prolonged disruptions likely triggering budget deficits across the region,” he said.
For energy-hungry Asian economies, a blockade would be catastrophic.
“This narrow stretch carries nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Its closure would cripple global trade routes, choke energy supplies and slam the brakes on economic growth from Asia to Europe,” said Al-Ansari.
China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly half its crude imports. India, Japan, and South Korea would face severe shortages, forcing emergency releases from strategic reserves. Global shipping costs would explode as tankers would need to take longer routes around Africa.
“The first Asian economy to be affected by any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be China,” said Ajaka. “If the repercussions of the strait’s closure spill over into multiple economies, it could lead to a global recession — posing another challenge in terms of how to revive the global economy.”
The US is less vulnerable, importing only half a million barrels per day from the Gulf, equivalent to 7 percent of total US imports. But it would still suffer from skyrocketing global prices.
Al-Ansari emphasized that the crisis is not merely about oil: “It is about the fragile balance that keeps markets stable and societies moving.”
Iran has historically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but has never done so. In a recent op-ed for Arab News, Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center, said a full closure “would harm Iran’s own economy given that it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.”
Despite Iran’s heavy reliance on the waterway, Behnam Saeedi, a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee presidium, was quoted by Mehr news agency on Thursday as saying a blockade remained on the table.
“Iran has numerous options to respond to its enemies and uses such options based on what the situation is,” he said. “Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the potential options for Iran.”
Mehr later quoted another lawmaker, Ali Yazdikhah, as saying Iran would continue to allow free shipping in the strait and in the Gulf so long as its vital national interests were not at risk.
“If the US officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists (Israel), it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the US and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade’s ease of transit,” said Yazdikhah.
However, it is not a decision Iran would take lightly.
“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will undoubtedly lose economically and militarily,” said Ajaka. “Any country that wants to wage war will lose if it does not have foreign currency reserves, as war depletes these reserves — preventing it from making the decision to close the strait.
“The only circumstances that might lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz are if it feels its regime is on the verge of collapse,” he added.
As Iran already seems to have been backed into a corner, there is every chance it could take this final leap. As Al-Ansari said: “Iran is already economically crippled and is facing an existential reality. The scenario of closing the strait should never be ruled out.”
Past incidents have shown the global impact of regional events. In 2019, attacks on Saudi tankers near Fujairah and the Abqaiq drone strikes briefly cut 5 percent of the global oil supply. World powers, therefore, have a major interest in keeping the strait open.
“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would prompt military intervention by the US and the UK,” said Ajaka.
On June 17, US officials informed The New York Times that Iran had positioned missiles and military assets for potential strikes on American bases in the Middle East if the US entered the conflict.
Other officials also warned Iran could resort to mining the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an attack — a strategy designed to trap US warships in the Persian Gulf.
In the event of a blockade, Ajaka suggested Western and Asian nations would likely tap into strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate immediate shortages.
However, he added this would only provide temporary relief, as non-OPEC countries have already maxed out their production capacity, leaving OPEC members as the only potential source of additional supply.
“If the strait is closed and oil prices rise, oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, may resort to halting production cuts and instead increase output to curb the sharp rise in prices,” he said.
“One other possible measure would be for the US to ease restrictions on oil-producing countries like Venezuela to increase oil supply in the market.”
Nevertheless, Ajaka said: “The core position of oil — and the fundamental reason for the necessity of security in the Middle East — is that the Arabian Gulf must remain the ultimate guarantor.”
Israeli-backed group seeks at least $30m from US for aid distribution in Gaza
- The foundation says it has provided millions of meals in southern Gaza since late May to Palestinians
- The effort has seen near-daily fatal shootings of Palestinians trying to reach the distribution sites
WASHINGTON: A US-led group has asked the Trump administration to step in with an initial $30 million so it can continue its much scrutinized and Israeli-backed aid distribution in Gaza, according to three US officials and the organization’s application for the money.
That application, obtained by The Associated Press, also offers some of the first financial details about the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and its work in the territory.
The foundation says it has provided millions of meals in southern Gaza since late May to Palestinians as Israel’s blockade and military campaign have driven the Gaza to the brink of famine.
But the effort has seen near-daily fatal shootings of Palestinians trying to reach the distribution sites. Major humanitarian groups also accuse the foundation of cooperating with Israel’s objectives in the 20-month-old war against Hamas in a way that violates humanitarian principles.
The group’s funding application was submitted to the US Agency for International Development, according to the US officials, who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
The application was being processed this week as potentially one of the agency’s last acts before the Republican administration absorbs USAID into the State Department as part of deep cuts in foreign assistance.
Two of the officials said they were told the administration has decided to award the money. They said the processing was moving forward with little of the review and auditing normally required before Washington makes foreign assistance grants to an organization.
In a letter submitted Thursday as part of the application, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation secretary Loik Henderson said his organization “was grateful for the opportunity to partner with you to sustain and scale life-saving operations in Gaza.”
Neither the State Department nor Henderson immediately responded to requests for comment Saturday.
Israel says the foundation is the linchpin of a new aid system to wrest control from the United Nations, which Israel alleges has been infiltrated by Hamas, and other humanitarian groups. The foundation’s use of fixed sites in southern Gaza is in line with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to use aid to concentrate the territory’s more than 2 million people in the south, freeing Israel to fight Hamas elsewhere.
Aid workers fear it’s a step toward another of Netanyahu’s public goals, removing Palestinians from Gaza in “voluntary” migrations that aid groups and human rights organizations say would amount to coerced departures.
The UN and many leading nonprofit groups accuse the foundation of stepping into aid distribution with little transparency or humanitarian experience, and, crucially, without a commitment to the principles of neutrality and operational independence in war zones.
Since the organization started operations, several hundred Palestinians have been killed and hundreds more wounded in near-daily shootings as they tried to reach aid sites, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Witnesses say Israeli troops regularly fire heavy barrages toward the crowds in an attempt to control them.
The Israeli military has denied firing on civilians. It says it fired warning shots in several instance, and fired directly at a few “suspects” who ignored warnings and approached its forces.
It’s unclear who is funding the new operation in Gaza. No donor has come forward. The State Department said this past week that the United States is not funding it.
In documents supporting its application, the group said it received nearly $119 million for May operations from “other government donors,” but gives no details. It expects $38 million from those unspecific government donors for June, in addition to the hoped-for $30 million from the United States.
The application shows no funding from private philanthropy or any other source.
Gaza’s starvation crisis fuels deadly race for survival
- Palestinians say they are forced into a competition to feed their families
KHAN YOUNIS: Each day, Palestinians in Gaza run a deadly gauntlet in hopes of getting food. Israeli troops open barrages of gunfire toward crowds crossing military zones to get to the aid, they say, and knife-wielding thieves wait to ambush those who succeed. Palestinians say lawlessness is growing as they are forced into a competition to feed their families.
A lucky few manage to secure some packets of lentils, a jar of Nutella, or a bag of flour.
Many return empty-handed and must attempt the ordeal again the next day.
“This is not aid. It’s humiliation. It’s death,” said Jamil Atili, his face shining with sweat as he made his way back last week from a food center run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an Israeli-backed private contractor.
He had suffered a knife cut across his cheek amid the scramble for food and said a contractor guard pepper-sprayed him in the face. Still, he emerged with nothing for his 13 family members.
I have nothing to feed my children. My heart is broken.
Jamil Atili, Gaza resident
“I have nothing to feed my children,” he said, nearly crying. “My heart is broken.”
Israel began allowing food into Gaza this past month after cutting it off completely for 10 weeks, though UN officials say it is not enough to stave off starvation.
Most of the supplies go to GHF, which operates four food distribution points inside Israeli military zones. A trickle of aid goes to the UN and humanitarian groups.
Both systems are mired in chaos.
Daily gunfire by Israeli troops toward crowds on the roads heading to the GHF centers has killed several hundred people and wounded hundreds more in the past weeks, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
At the same time, in past weeks, hungry crowds have overwhelmed most of the UN’s truck convoys and stripped away the supplies. Israeli troops have opened fire to disperse crowds waiting for trucks near military zones, witnesses say — and on Tuesday, more than 50 people were killed, according to the ministry.
“I don’t see how it can get any worse, because it is already apocalyptic. But somehow it does get worse,” said Olga Cherevko, spokesperson for the UN humanitarian affairs office.
Thousands of people must walk miles to reach the GHF centers, three of which are in the far south outside the city of Rafah. Palestinians said the danger begins when the crowds enter the Israeli military zone encompassing Rafah.
Mohammed Saqer, a father of three who risked the trip multiple times, said that when he went last week, tanks were firing over the heads of the crowds as drone announcements told everyone to move back.
It’s like it was "Squid Game,” Saqer said, referring to the dystopian thriller TV series in which contestants risk their lives to win a prize. Just raising your head might mean death, he said.
He and others crawled forward, then left the main road.
A shot rang out nearby, and they ducked, he said. They found a young man on the ground, shot in the back.
The others assumed he was dead, but Saqer felt his chest — it was still warm, and he found a pulse.
They carried him to a point where a car could pick him up.
Saqer said he stood for a moment, traumatized by the scene. Then people shouted that the site had opened.
The mad dash
Everyone broke into a crazed run, he said. He saw several people wounded on the ground. One man, bleeding from his abdomen, reached out his hand, pleading for help. No one stopped.
“Everyone is just running to get to the aid, to get there first,” Saqer said.
Omar Al-Hobi described the same scene four times when he went last week.
Twice, he returned empty-handed; once, he managed to grab a pack of lentils. On the fourth day, he was determined to secure flour for his three children and pregnant wife.
He said he and others inched their way forward under tank fire. He saw several people shot in the legs. One man fell bleeding to the ground, apparently dead, he said.
Horrified, Al-Hobi froze, unable to move, “but I remembered I have to feed my children.”
He took cover in a greenhouse, then heard the announcement that the center was open and began to run.
Avoiding thieves
At the center, food boxes are stacked on the ground in an area surrounded by fences and earthen berms. Thousands rush in to grab what they can in a frantic melee.
You have to move fast, Saqer said. Once supplies run out, some of those who came too late rob those leaving. He swiftly tore open a box and loaded the contents into a sack — juice, chickpeas, lentils, cheese, beans, flour and cooking oil.
Then he took off running. There’s only one route in and out of the center. But, knowing thieves waited outside, Saqer clambered over a berm, running the risk of being fired on by Israeli troops.
“It all depends on the soldiers’ mood. If they are in a bad mood … they will shoot at me. If not, they will let me be,” he said.
Heba Jouda said she saw a group of men beat up a boy of 12 or 13 years old and take his food as she left one of the Rafah centers.
Another time, she said, thieves attacked an older man, who hugged his sack, weeping that his children had no food.
They sliced his arm with a knife and ran off with the sack.
Al-Hobi said he was trampled in the scramble for boxes.
He managed to grab a bag of rice, a packet of macaroni.
He snagged flour — but much of it was ruined in the chaos.
At his family tent outside Khan Younis, his wife, Anwaar Saleh, said she will ration it all to make it last a week or so.
“We hope he doesn’t have to go back. His life is the most important thing,” she said.
Al-Hobi remains shaken — both by his brushes with death and the callousness that the race for food has instilled in everyone.
“No one will show you mercy these days. Everybody fends for themselves.”
Iran president says will not halt nuclear activity ‘under any circumstances’
- “We are ready to discuss and cooperate to build confidence in the field of peaceful nuclear activities,” said Pezeshkian
TEHRAN: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said Saturday his country will not halt nuclear activity “under any circumstances” amid ongoing fighting with Israel which hit nuclear sites.
“We are ready to discuss and cooperate to build confidence in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, however, we do not agree to reduce nuclear activities to zero under any circumstances,” said Pezeshkian during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the official IRNA news agency.
Cyprus arrests British man on suspicion of terror-related plot, police say
- The man appeared before a district court on Saturday
- Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said in a post on X that an Iranian attempt to attack Israeli citizens in Cyprus was thwarted
NICOSIA: Police in Cyprus have arrested a British man on suspicion of terror-related offenses and espionage, authorities said on Saturday, with Israel accusing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of trying to attack Israeli citizens on the island.
The man appeared before a district court on Saturday, which ordered an eight-day detention pending inquiries.
Police gave no further details, citing national security.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said in a post on X that an Iranian attempt to attack Israeli citizens in Cyprus was thwarted, “thanks to the activity of the Cypriot security authorities, in cooperation with Israeli security services.”
He gave no more details about the nature of the attack, and there was no immediate comment from Iranian authorities.
A spokesperson for Britain’s Foreign Office confirmed the individual’s nationality, saying it was in contact with local authorities.
“We are in contact (with) the authorities in Cyprus regarding the arrest of a British man,” the spokesperson told Reuters.
Several Cypriot news outlets reported the suspect was a man of Azeri ethnic descent and had been arrested in the Zakaki suburb of the coastal city of Limassol. The suspect was thought to have had a British RAF military base in nearby Akrotiri under surveillance, as well as Cyprus’s own Andreas Papandreou Air Base in the western region of Paphos since mid-April, Cyprus’s ANT1 news portal reported.
Cyprus lies very close to the Middle East and has in recent days been used as a transit point for people either leaving or going to the region amid the conflict between regional foes Israel and Iran.
Terror-related offenses on the island are very rare.
