KARACHI: Pakistan would take a $1.2 billion hit on every $5 per barrel increase in the global oil prices, experts told Arab News after two Saudi oil facilities were droned on Saturday, adding that such a scenario could lead to “unimaginable” economic consequences for the South Asian country.
The Houthi militia attacked the Kingdom’s major oil facilities in the Eastern Province on Saturday, causing a disruption of 5.7 million barrels a day and removed 5 percent of global oil supply that resulted in a 15 percent increase in the global oil price at the beginning of the Asian trade on Monday.
The Brent crude for November futures traded at $65.41 per barrel by midday after posting an 8.6 percent gain in the Asian trade.
The attack that the US State Secretary, Mike Pompeo, blamed on Iran resulted in the single biggest oil supply disruption since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 when 5.6 million barrels a day went out of the global supply.
With all eyes riveted on Saudi Arabia and how quickly it manages to restore its full oil production, Pakistani experts say it will have a devastating impact on the country’s economy as Pakistan’s enhanced oil import bill will undermine all the measures to bring down the current account deficit.
Oil imports constituted 26 percent of the country’s total import bill of $54.8 billion during the fiscal year FY19 and 24 percent during the fiscal year FY18, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
“Every $5 per barrel surge in oil prices weakens Pakistan’s balance of payments by $1.2bn on an annual basis, assuming that the prices remain high throughout the year,” Samiullah Tariq, Director Research at the Arif Habib Limited, a brokerage firm, told Arab News on Monday.
“Higher oil prices will lead to higher inflation and negative balance of payments. If the global uncertainty persists it will also negatively affect us since such circumstances usually impede financial inflows. It would also make things difficult for Eurobond and Sukuk issuance,” he added.
Economists say that such attacks can thwart Pakistan’s efforts to reduce its import bill, adding to its current account deficit once again.
“The price spike that is expected to stay at around $70 per barrel will increase our import bill and trade deficit that recently declined. This will once again begin to erode our foreign reserves,” Dr. Ayub Mehar, a senior economist, told Arab News.
“The government must take remedial measures from now on,” he added.
“The increasing crude prices will exert pressure on an already indebted nation,” GA Sabri, former secretary petroleum, told Arab News. “We are facing a financial crisis and this attack can further deepen our losses. The losses can be unmanageable because we mainly import oil from Saudi Arabia. The recent developments are very serious and disturbing and can have a trickle down impact on the overall economy.”
Experts suggest exploration of domestic energy resources. They also implore the government to find new oil import destinations to mitigate risks to Pakistan’s energy security.
“This attack on the Aramco installations show that in future such facilities would be subjected to war targets in the regional flare up. This will impact your strategic facilities,” Dr. Maria Sultan, Director General of South Asian Strategic Stability Institute University, told Arab News.
“I am constantly calling for exploration of domestic oil and gas and other minerals because the country is full of these natural energy resources,” Sabri suggested. “We must also honor our commitments and start long term TAPI [Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India] gas pipeline project,” he added.
Pakistan looking at 'unmanageable' economic catastrophe post Aramco attacks – experts
Pakistan looking at 'unmanageable' economic catastrophe post Aramco attacks – experts
- Every $5 per barrel price increase would jack up Pakistan’s import bill by $1.2 billion, analysts warn
- Houthis attack on oil facilities removes 5.7 mbd from global supply, trigger price spike
Pakistan court directs government to engage with Imran Khan’s party over Nov. 24 protest
- Islamabad High Court says law and order remains government’s priority if there is no breakthrough
- Chief Justice Aamer Farooq hopes PTI will have ‘meaningful communication’ with the administration
ISLAMABAD: The Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Thursday directed the government to form a committee to engage in talks with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leadership regarding the party’s planned protest in Islamabad on Nov. 24, emphasizing the need to avoid disruptions during the visit of the Belarusian president.
IHC Chief Justice Aamer Farooq issued the directive while hearing a petition by local trade association, instructing the government to constitute the committee that is preferably headed by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, with Islamabad Chief Commissioner Muhammad Ali Randhawa and other officials.
The committee is tasked with negotiating with PTI leaders to address the “sensitivity over the weekend due to the movement of the President of a foreign country.”
“It would be appropriate that respondent No. 1 (government) constitute the committee ... to engage with the leadership of respondent No. 5 (PTI party), informing them of the sensitivity over the weekend,” said the court.
“In case no breakthrough is made, the law and order is the responsibility of respondents No. 1,” it continued, adding: “In this regard, no protest or rally or for that matter sit-in shall be allowed.”
Chief Justice Farooq urged the government to maintain law and order in Islamabad with “minimum disruption to the life of ordinary citizens,” expressing hope that PTI would “engage in meaningful communication” with the committee.
The court also directed a report on the matter to be submitted at the next hearing, scheduled for Nov. 27.
The directive followed a petition filed by Jinnah Super Traders Association (JSTA) President Asad Aziz, who sought the court’s intervention to prevent the PTI protest, citing disruptions to daily life and financial losses for the business community.
“Islamabad is a very expensive city with high property and rent prices,” Aziz told Arab News. “If your business is shut on top business days, how can these businessmen survive?“
He highlighted the financial strain caused by protests, particularly for shopkeepers in areas like Super Market, Jinnah Super Market and Blue Area.
Aziz claimed that 20 percent of shopkeepers had shut their businesses in recent months due to recurring disruptions caused by political demonstrations.
Protests in Islamabad have frequently caused disruptions to their lives of it residents. In September, a similar PTI demonstration led the government to lock down the city with containers, creating significant inconvenience for people and business owners.
Earlier this year, Pakistan’s parliament passed a law regulating public gatherings in Islamabad, specifying timings for rallies and designating specific areas. The law prescribes three-year jail terms for participants in illegal assemblies and 10-year imprisonment for repeat offenders.
Pakistan’s interior ministry has already approved the deployment of paramilitary forces in Islamabad to manage the anticipated law and order situation during the protests.
The security situation has also become a paramount concern due to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s three-day visit to Islamabad starting Monday, during which several investment deals and memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed between the two countries.
In rare message, Imran Khan’s wife says he won’t seek revenge if back in power
- Bushra Bibi says the protest date will only change from Nov. 24 if Khan shares another public course of action
- Her message marks a rare foray into the public eye, underscoring her emerging role as a central PTI figure
ISLAMABAD: In a rare public message on Thursday, Bushra Bibi, the wife of Pakistan’s jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan, assured state institutions he harbors no plans for revenge upon returning to power, as she rallied support for a protest planned by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) next week.
The PTI is organizing the rally in Islamabad on November 24, demanding Khan’s release, who has been in prison since August last year following his arrest on corruption charges.
The protest also aims to highlight the party’s allegations of electoral rigging in the February 8 general elections. The planned demonstration reflects the deepening political polarization in Pakistan, with Khan’s supporters and other political factions locked in an increasingly bitter political conflict.
Khan’s combative rhetoric against state institutions, including the powerful military— whom he has accused of orchestrating his ouster in an April 2022 no-confidence vote— has further entrenched divisions.
Despite his incarceration, Khan has remained defiant, which many interpret as evidence of his determination to seek retribution against rivals if he regains power. In her video message, however, Bibi dismissed the perceptions, emphasizing Khan’s commitment to forgiveness and unity.
“I want to tell the [state] institutions that it is completely wrong to think that Khan will take revenge on anyone,” she said in the video. “Khan says taking revenge on people after coming into power is akin to inviting God’s displeasure.”
“He has said that the time he has spent in jail has brought him closer to God,” she continued. “He has also said that he has learned that when you come into power, you should open the door to forgiveness, not the door to oppression.”
Bibi’s appeal marked a rare foray into the public eye, underscoring her emerging role as a central figure in the PTI’s efforts to build momentum for Khan’s release. She remained in the same jail with Khan in a case involving the illegal sale of state gifts before her release on bail in October.
Bibi called on party supporters to participate in the November 24 rally, saying there was no plan to change the protest date.
“The date can only be changed on one condition that Khan comes out and himself announces the next course of action to the public,” she said. “Otherwise, under no circumstances can the date of Nov. 24 be changed.”
Khan’s arrest and imprisonment have become a flashpoint for political tensions in Pakistan. The PTI alleges that the cases against Khan are politically motivated, aimed at sidelining the former premier and dismantling his party.
Meanwhile, the coalition government has taken measures to suppress PTI’s rallies, citing concerns over public safety and order, particularly in light of the planned protest in Islamabad.
Bibi asked people to come out and protest in her message, calling it their duty to fighter for the rule of law in the country.
Pakistan government open to talks with Imran Khan’s party, refuses to allow Nov. 24 protest
- Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi says negotiations cannot take place amid ‘threats’ from PTI
- He says it is not possible to allow a rally in Islamabad ahead of a Belarusian delegation visit
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Thursday suggested the government was open to talks with former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party but ruled out allowing its planned protest in Islamabad on November 24, ahead of a high-level visit by a Belarusian delegation.
The PTI has announced a “long march” to Islamabad on November 24, primarily demanding the release of Khan, who has been imprisoned since August last year on charges the party contends are politically motivated.
Additionally, the party’s protest is also meant to raise its voice against alleged rigging in the February 8 general elections while calling for measures to ensure judicial independence, which it believes has been undermined by the 26th constitutional amendment.
On Monday, Islamabad’s district magistrate imposed a two-month-long ban on gatherings of more than five people in the capital, invoking Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure. This provision allows the government to prohibit political assemblies, rallies, demonstrations, sit-ins and other activities for a specified period.
Addressing the media in Islamabad, the interior minister said the government was fully prepared to stop the protest, with Punjab police, Rangers and Frontier Constabulary (FC) troops assisting the Islamabad police in operational duties.
“Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Barrister Gohar Khan met Imran Khan twice in the past two days,” Naqvi said, amid speculation that the PTI leaders discussed the option of negotiating with the government. “If they wish to initiate talks [with the government], they should do it. If they want to hold talks, they should tell us.”
The minister added, however, that no talks were possible if the PTI headed to Islamabad and “wielded sticks against us” on November 24.
“Let me tell you one thing: negotiations don’t take place with threats, though I personally feel talks should take place between everyone,” he said.
In response to a question, Naqvi clarified that no talks were currently underway with Khan, who is facing a new case related to violence at a PTI rally that took place in September while the ex-premier was in jail.
Highlighting the upcoming visit of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and his 10 cabinet ministers to Pakistan on a three-day visit next week, Naqvi said no permission could be granted for any rally or protest in the federal capital.
He added that a decision on whether to suspend mobile signals in Islamabad ahead of the protest would be finalized by Friday night.
Just a day earlier, it emerged that Pakistan’s interior ministry had authorized the deployment of paramilitary Punjab Rangers and FC forces in Islamabad since November 7 to maintain law and order.
Pakistan’s parliament also passed a law earlier this year to regulate public gatherings in Islamabad, specifying timings for rallies and designating specific areas. The law prescribes three-year jail terms for participants in illegal assemblies and 10-year imprisonment for repeat offenders.
Pakistani stocks surge past 97,000 as investor confidence grows on economic reforms
- Analysts attribute rally to strong economic data, rising optimism over government reforms
- Stock market has remained bullish since the government slashed policy rate in November
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday gained 1,700 points, surging past the 97,000 mark during intra-day trading for the first time, with analysts attributing the rally to strong economic data and rising investor optimism over government reforms.
The benchmark KSE-100 index rose by 1,781.94 points, or 1.86 percent, to close at 97,328.39. It touched an unprecedented peak of 97,437.15 during intra-day trading.
Analyst Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation said surging foreign exchange reserves and speculations over the government’s decisions on economic reforms and privatization “played a catalyst role in the record surge at the PSX.”
“Stocks are bullish, led by scrips across the board as investors weigh a drop in government bond yields and robust economic data for current account surplus, remittances, exports and foreign direct investments,” Mehanti told Arab News.
In October, Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments.
A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.
A bullish trend has been observed in the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. Economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
In the past, the country faced a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation. Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-minute $3 billion IMF bailout deal.
Saudi mission in Pakistan condemns militant attack that killed 12 soldiers this week
- The embassy extends condolences to victims’ families and the Pakistani people in a statement
- The statement reiterates the kingdom’s position ‘rejecting all forms of violence and terrorism’
ISLAMABAD: The Saudi embassy in Pakistan on Thursday condemned a militant attack on a joint security checkpoint in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that killed 10 army soldiers and two Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel, extending condolences to the victims’ families and the Pakistani people.
The attack, which occurred on Tuesday, targeted a joint army and paramilitary check post in the Mali Khel area of Bannu District, where militants detonated an explosive-laden vehicle after troops repelled their attempt to storm the post, according to the Pakistan military. Six militants were killed during the exchange of gunfire that followed.
“The Embassy expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the attack on a joint checkpoint in the city of Bannu in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, which resulted in the death and injury of a number of people,” the Saudi diplomatic mission in Islamabad said in a statement.
“The Embassy reiterates the Kingdom’s position rejecting all forms of violence and terrorism,” it added. “The Embassy extends its deepest condolences and sincere sympathy to the families of the victims, the government and the people of Pakistan, and wishes the injured a speedy recovery.”
Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has experienced a resurgence of militant violence in recent months, with a growing number of attacks on security forces and infrastructure despite the country’s efforts to combat militancy.
The region has long been a hotspot for insurgent activity, with militants frequently targeting military and paramilitary personnel.
Saudi Arabia has consistently expressed its support for Pakistan’s fight against extremist violence, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation to tackle militancy and ensure regional stability.
