JERUSALEM: Benjamin Netanyahu has been tasked by Israel’s president to form a new government for the sixth time in his lengthy political career. This time it’s no mere formality, but rather a daunting endeavor that looks like mission impossible.
After an inconclusive national election last week, Netanyahu has no obvious path to the 61-seat parliamentary majority required of a coalition government, enjoying the backing of just 55 of its 120 members. It doesn’t look like his opponents are going to budge and next week Netanyahu has a pre-indictment hearing before he will likely be charged in a series of corruption scandals — something that would reshuffle the extremely complicated deck he already has.
Officially, Netanyahu has up to four weeks to present a stable government. President Reuven Rivlin, who is responsible for delegating a leader to form a government, gave Netanyahu the nod because he deemed him to have the best odds of success.
Rivlin can technically extend the window by two weeks, as he did after April’s initial election, but given the current quagmire, Netanyahu is far more likely to return the “mandate” to the president well before then if no breakthrough emerges. Rivlin can then give challenger Benny Gantz a four-week window to try it himself. With only 54 members backing Gantz, he has an equally slim chance of success, which is why Rivlin has been urging the two men to reach some form of unity government to spare the country a dreaded third election in less than a year.
Here’s a look at how it can play out:
LIEBERMAN FOLDS
The impetus for last week’s unprecedented repeat election was maverick politician Avigdor Lieberman. A former aide and ally of Netanyahu’s, he refused to join his government in April because of what he considered to be the excessive influence of its ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Lieberman emerged even stronger in last week’s vote with eight seats. Refusing to endorse either candidate, he has stood firm on his demand for a secular unity government between the two major parties, Likud and Gantz’s Blue and White. The simplest way out of the impasse would be a Lieberman flip-flop that would save Netanyahu and give him a solid majority. But the one-time protégé appears bent on taking down his former mentor. The battered Labor party and its six seats could also potentially offer Netanyahu a lifeline, but that seems like even more of a long shot.
LIKUD OUSTS NETANYAHU
The main sticking point for Gantz and his centrist Blue and White party is Netanyahu himself. Gantz, a former military chief, has repeatedly vowed he would not ally with a prime minister facing such serious criminal charges . But he’s openly called for a unity government with a Likud party headed by someone else, which would offer the prospect of a broad, stable coalition. An open rebellion is unlikely in a party that values loyalty and has only had four leaders in its 70-plus years of existence. Netanyahu is not only clinging to office for his political survival but also to protect himself as much as he can from prosecution, so he won’t go down without a fight. Unlike a regular Cabinet minister, Netanyahu as prime minister would not be required by Israeli law to step down if he was charged. Still, he will likely face heavy pressure to do so. He still enjoys wide backing in Likud, where he is revered almost like royalty, but if the party sees polls predicting a dramatic downfall in a third round of voting, the long-anticipated uprising could finally start to materialize.
BIBI AND BENNY COMPROMISE
During the ugly campaign, Gantz questioned Netanyahu’s patriotism and Netanyahu questioned his sanity. But in the blood sport that is Israeli politics, such insults are nothing that can’t be overcome. A unity government, with a rotating leadership, still appears to be the most plausible way out of the gridlock. Upon appointing Netanyahu prime minister-designate, Rivlin proposed a plan in which both parties would have equal power and Gantz would become prime minister if Netanyahu became legally “incapacitated” within the next year. Likud indicated it was open to the proposal, but Gantz has recanted for now — apparently under pressure from the more anti-Netanyahu forces in his faction. With the clock ticking, he may reconsider.
A WILD CARD EMERGES
If neither Netanyahu nor Gantz can muster a majority coalition, there is a never-before-used loophole in Israeli law that would allow any lawmaker a three-week period to recruit a 61-seat majority around them. That hypothetical candidate would likely have to come from the right, with the hottest name being former Education Minister Gideon Saar of the Likud. He’s long been considered a potential successor to Netanyahu, despite their rocky relationship. Though a hard-liner, he enjoys a good reputation across the political spectrum, and he seems more of a unifier than Netanyahu. Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein and Cabinet Minister Gilad Erdan have also been floated as potential heirs. But that would require bypassing Netanyahu and figuring out how to get the rest of Likud’s would-be claimers to the throne to rally around a single candidate.
ELECTIONS, TAKE THREE
Each passing day makes the most undesirable outcome appear more likely. No one in the political system favors a third election and the public will certainly be disgusted by another costly, divisive campaign that will just further extend over nine months of government paralysis. Another vote is unlikely to produce a more decisive result, and both sides are already preparing to blame the other for dragging the country through the mud once again. As Rivlin warned, it will be the public who pays the price for it.
“This is a bad situation in a sense that the country must be run by an effective government,” said Gideon Rahat, a Hebrew University professor and senior fellow at the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute. “On the other hand, if we do cope with these problems, if we continue to fulfill the rules of the game ... this at least will tell you that Israeli democracy still operates, more or less, even though there is kind of a crisis.”
Israeli politics remain in chaos after deadlocked election, as Netanyahu struggles to form coalition
Israeli politics remain in chaos after deadlocked election, as Netanyahu struggles to form coalition
- He has up to 6 weeks to attempt to resolve the political impasse
- If Netanyahu fails to form a government, the president can then ask Gantz to try
Some gaps have narrowed in elusive Gaza ceasefire deal, sides say
- Palestinian official familiar with the talks said some sticking points had been resolved
- But identity of some of Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel in return for hostages yet to be agreed
A fresh bid by mediators Egypt, Qatar and the United States to end the fighting and release Israeli and foreign hostages has gained momentum this month, though no breakthrough has yet been reported.
A Palestinian official familiar with the talks said while some sticking points had been resolved, the identity of some of the Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel in return for hostages had yet to be agreed, along with the precise deployment of Israeli troops in Gaza.
His remarks corresponded with comments by the Israeli diaspora minister, Amichai Chikli, who said both issues were still being negotiated. Nonetheless, he said, the sides were far closer to reaching agreement than they have been for months.
“This ceasefire can last six months or it can last 10 years, it depends on the dynamics that will form on the ground,” Chikli told Israel’s Kan radio. Much hinged on what powers would be running and rehabilitating Gaza once fighting stopped, he said.
The duration of the ceasefire has been a fundamental sticking point throughout several rounds of failed negotiations. Hamas wants an end to the war, while Israel wants an end to Hamas’ rule of Gaza first.
“The issue of ending the war completely hasn’t yet been resolved,” said the Palestinian official.
Israeli minister Zeev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, told Israel’s Army Radio that the aim was to find an agreed framework that would resolve that difference during a second stage of the ceasefire deal.
Chikli said the first stage would be a humanitarian phase that will last 42 days and include a hostage release.
HOSPITAL
The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza has since killed more than 45,200 Palestinians, according to health officials in the Hamas-run enclave. Most of the population of 2.3 million has been displaced and much of Gaza is in ruins.
At least 11 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes on Monday, medics said.
One of Gaza’s few still partially functioning hospitals, on its northern edge, an area under intense Israeli military pressure for nearly three months, sought urgent help after being hit by Israeli fire.
“We are facing a continuous daily threat,” said Hussam Abu Safiya, director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital. “The bombing continues from all directions, affecting the building, the departments, and the staff.”
The Israeli military did not immediately comment. On Sunday it said it was supplying fuel and food to the hospital and helping evacuate some patients and staff to safer areas.
Palestinians accuse Israel of seeking to permanently depopulate northern Gaza to create a buffer zone, which Israel denies.
Israel says its operation around the three communities on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip — Beit Lahiya, Beit Hanoun and Jabalia — is targeting Hamas militants.
On Monday, the United Nations’ aid chief, Tom Fletcher, said Israeli forces had hampered efforts to deliver much needed aid in northern Gaza.
“North Gaza has been under a near-total siege for more than two months, raising the specter of famine,” he said. “South Gaza is extremely overcrowded, creating horrific living conditions and even greater humanitarian needs as winter sets in.”
Palestinians in Jenin observe a general strike
- The Palestinian Authority exercises limited authority in population centers in the West Bank
JENIN: Palestinians in the volatile northern West Bank town of Jenin are observing a general strike called by militant groups to protest a rare crackdown by Palestinian security forces.
An Associated Press reporter in Jenin heard gunfire and explosions, apparently from clashes between militants and Palestinian security forces. It was not immediately clear if anyone was killed or wounded. There was no sign of Israeli troops in the area.
Shops were closed in the city on Monday, the day after militants killed a member of the Palestinian security forces and wounded two others.
Militant groups called for a general strike across the territory, accusing the security forces of trying to disarm them in support of Israel’s half-century occupation of the territory.
The Western-backed Palestinian Authority is internationally recognized but deeply unpopular among Palestinians, in part because it cooperates with Israel on security matters. Israel accuses the authority of incitement and of failing to act against armed groups.
The Palestinian Authority blamed Sunday’s attack on “outlaws.” It says it is committed to maintaining law and order but will not police the occupation.
The Palestinian Authority exercises limited authority in population centers in the West Bank. Israel captured the territory in the 1967 Mideast War, and the Palestinians want it to form the main part of their future state.
Israel’s current government is opposed to Palestinian statehood and says it will maintain open-ended security control over the territory. Violence has soared in the West Bank following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack out of Gaza, which ignited the war there.
Qatari minister arrives in Damascus on first Qatar Airways flight since Assad’s fall
DUBAI: Qatar’s minister of state for foreign affairs arrived in Damascus on Monday on the first Qatar Airways flight to the Syrian capital since the fall of President Bashar Assad two weeks ago, Doha’s foreign ministry said.
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Mohammed Al-Khulaifi was the most senior official of the Gulf Arab state to visit Syria since militants toppled the Assad family’s 54-year-long rule.
Iran foreign ministry affirms support for Syria’s sovereignty
- Assad fled Syria earlier this month as rebel forces led by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) entered the capital Damascus
TEHRAN: Iran affirmed its support for Syria’s sovereignty on Monday, and said the country should not become “a haven for terrorism” after the fall of president Bashar Assad, a longtime Tehran ally.
“Our principled position on Syria is very clear: preserving the sovereignty and integrity of Syria and for the people of Syria to decide on its future without destructive foreign interference,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said in a weekly press briefing.
He added that the country should not “become a haven for terrorism,” saying such an outcome would have “repercussions” for countries in the region.
Assad fled Syria earlier this month as rebel forces led by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) entered the capital Damascus after a lightning offensive.
The takeover by HTS — proscribed as a terrorist organization by many governments including the United States — has sparked concern, though the group has in recent years sought to moderate its image.
Headed by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, Syria’s new leader and an ardent opponent of Iran, the group has spoken out against the Islamic republic’s influence in Syria under Assad.
Tehran helped prop up Assad during Syria’s long civil war, providing him with military advisers.
During Monday’s press briefing, Baqaei said Iran had “no direct contact” with Syria’s new rulers.
Sharaa has received a host of foreign delegations since coming to power.
He met on Sunday with Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, and on Monday with Jordan’s top diplomat Ayman Safadi.
On Friday, the United States’ top diplomat for the Middle East Barbara Leaf held a meeting with Sharaa, later saying she expected Syria would completely end any role for Iran in its affairs.
A handful of European delegations have also visited in recent days.
Regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which has long supported Syria’s opposition, is expected to send a delegation soon, according to Syria’s ambassador in Riyadh.
Iran says ‘no direct contact’ with Syria rulers
- Foreign ministry spokesman: ‘We have no direct contact with the ruling authority in Syria’
TEHRAN: Iran said Monday it had “no direct contact” with Syria’s new rulers after the fall of president Bashar Assad, a longtime Tehran ally.
“We have no direct contact with the ruling authority in Syria,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said at a weekly press briefing.