The International Institute for Iranian Studies, known as Rasanah, has released its 2024-2025 Annual Strategic Report titled "Globalization of Crises and Complexity of Conflicts," providing an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical landscape shaping 2025.
The report documents the complexities of significant conflicts, offering insights into potential scenarios for the coming year, an official statement explained. It broadens its scope to include new geopolitical arenas, offering a detailed look at how traditional and emerging powers navigate the shifting sands of international influence.
Rasanah critically examines the ineffectiveness of UN bodies in conflict resolution and the impact of regime changes in the Middle East, which has emerged as a focal point of volatility and transformation.
Through four comprehensive sections, Rasanah provides insights into international developments, regional shifts and Saudi policy trends as well as the ebb and flow of Iranian regional and international influence.
Saudi Arabia's Strategic Positioning
Highlighting Saudi Arabia's alignment with Vision 2030, the report praises the Kingdom's efforts to bolster its regional and global standing.
The report discusses Saudi policies and responses to challenges with a resilient vision, including the Saudi response to Arab and regional developments and Saudi Arabia’s position amid global shifts.
According to the report, Saudi Arabia will continue its support of the future of the Middle East, including the Gulf region, by cooperating with its regional and international allies to de-escalate tensions and end conflicts in the region.
The Kingdom will likely mediate major regional thorny issues between different countries with the aim to restore stability and security to the Middle East.
Global Developments
The section on global developments dissects the interactions among major powers, the economic implications of these interactions, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, now described as a war of attrition. It also delves into non-traditional security issues as well as the evolving religious landscape in the Islamic world.
Regional Developments
2024 saw intensified geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East, with Israel and Iran particularly vying to establish a new paradigm of regional deterrence and conflict. The Gulf states have adopted a stance of positive neutrality, while Turkiye has pursued new strategies for regional and international benefits.
The report notes that in contrast, Africa continued to grapple with instability, fueled by internal crises and external interventions. The crisis in Bangladesh further reverberated across South Asia.
It forecasts continued geopolitical evolution into 2025, with Iran likely struggling to reclaim its previous influence.
Iran's Strategic Reassessment
In 2024, Iran underwent critical political, economic, social and military shifts that significantly influenced its domestic and foreign policy strategies.
Regionally, Iran faced unprecedented challenges, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, prompting a reevaluation of its traditional geopolitical strategies amid diminishing influence.
On the international stage, Iran’s diplomatic relations with both global and regional powers experienced notable shifts, impacting its strategic leverage and laying the groundwork for potential implications as it moves into 2025.
Rasanah's report not only maps out the intricate web of global and regional conflicts but also provides a sobering forecast for 2025, emphasizing the need for strategic foresight and international cooperation to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics.
This comprehensive analysis, supported by robust data and scenario planning, serves as a critical tool for policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of global politics in an era marked by crises and complex conflicts.
