ISLAMABAD: Light rain is forecast in several divisions of Pakistan’s Punjab province over the next 24 hours, provincial disaster management officials said on Monday, as a prolonged heat wave begins to ease in some areas.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on June 10 an ongoing heatwave in several parts of the country was expected to continue well into the middle of the month, with temperatures soaring above normal, disrupting daily life and raising health concerns.

However, the heat wave has begun to subside, a spokesperson for the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said in a situation report, and in the past 24 hours, Bahawalnagar recorded 8 millimeters of rain, Sahiwal 3 mm, and Toba Tek Singh up to 2 mm.

Rainfall was also reported in Multan, Sialkot, Jhang, Kasur, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi districts.

“Rain is predicted in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Gujranwala, D.G. Khan, and Sahiwal divisions in the next 24 hours,” the PDMA spokesperson said.

Five people were injured in a roof collapse caused by rain in Kasur district in the last 24 hours, the PDMA confirmed. 

PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia “instructed to provide the best medical assistance to the injured” and urged residents to exercise caution during unstable weather.

“Citizens are requested to take precautionary measures in bad weather conditions,” Kathia said in the statement. “Stay in safe places in bad weather conditions. Never go out under the open sky during thunderstorms.”

Pakistan ranks among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change and has faced increasingly frequent extreme weather events in recent years, including deadly heat waves and floods.

Temperatures in the upper parts of the country including parts of Punjab, Islamabad, northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the northern regions of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan remained 5°C to 7°C above normal this past week. Temperatures in the southern Sindh, eastern Punjab and southwestern Balochistan provinces stayed 4°C to 6°C above normal.
 

KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to hold its policy rate today, Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as many analysts shifted their previous view of a cut in the wake of Israel’s military strike on Iran, citing inflation risks from rising global commodity prices.
Israel said on Friday it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders in a “preemptive strike” to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.
Several brokerages had initially expected a cut but revised their forecasts after the Israeli strikes sparked fears of a broader conflict.
The escalating hostilities triggered a sharp spike in oil prices — a worry for Pakistan given the broader impact on imported inflation from a potentially prolonged conflict and tightening of crude supplies.
Eleven of 14 respondents in a snap poll expected the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 11 percent. Two forecast a 100 basis-point cut and one predicted a 50 bps cut.
“There remains an upside risk of a rise in global commodity prices in light of geopolitical tensions which could mark a return to inflationary pressures,” said Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“The resultant higher import bill could also threaten external sector performance and bring pressure to the exchange rate.”
Inflation in the South Asian country has been declining for several months after it soared to around 40 percent in May 2023.
Last month, however, inflation picked up to 3.5 percent, above the finance ministry’s projection of up to 2 percent, partly due to the fading of the year-go base effects. The SBP expects average inflation between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June.
The central bank paused its easing cycle in March after cumulative cuts of 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent, and resumed it with a 100-basis-point reduction in May.
The policy meeting follows the release a tight annual budget, which saw Pakistan raise defense spending by 20 percent but overall expenditure was reduced by 7 percent, with GDP growth forecast at 4.2 percent.
Pakistan says its $350 billion economy has stabilized under a $7 billion IMF bailout that had helped it staved a default threat.
Some analysts are skeptical of the government’s ability to reach the growth target amid fiscal and external challenges.
Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al Habib Capital Markets, which forecast a 50-bp cut, said a lower rate could “support the GDP target of 4.2 percent and reduce the debt financing burden.”