KARACHI: Moody’s Investors Service has changed Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable from negative following the International Monetary Fund IMF bailout program that stabilized south Asian country’s economy.
Moody’s had downgraded Pakistan’s ratings outlook to negative in June 2018, citing soaring external vulnerability risk due to depleting foreign exchange reserves.
The rating agency has affirmed Pakistan’s local and foreign currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings at B3.
The change in outlook to stable is driven by Moody’s expectations that the balance of payments dynamics will continue to improve, supported by policy adjustments and currency flexibility.
Rationale for outlook change are narrowing current account deficits, in combination with enhancements to the policy framework including currency flexibility, lower external vulnerability risks in Pakistan. However, foreign exchange reserve adequacy will take time to rebuild, Moody’s said in a statement on Monday.
“The upgradation of outlook to stable is affirmation of government’s success in stabilizing the country’s economy and laying a firm foundation for robust long term growth,” Dr. Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, Pakistan’s de facto Finance Minister, tweeted after Moody’s announcement.
In Pakistan such upgrading and downgrading of ratings and economic indicators are also used for political points scoring to large extent by political rivals. On Monday after the Moody’s announcement Asad Umar, federal Minister of planning, took to twitter to take the credit of the rating updgration.
“After 5 years of PML-N govt on June 20, 2018 Moody’s downgraded Pak outlook from stable to negative. This was 2 months BEFORE PTI formed govt. After 15 months of PTI govt Moody’s upgrades Pak from negative to stable. Now you decide who destroyed Pak economy & who is rebuilding it,” Umar tweeted.
Pakistan posted current account surplus in October for the first time in four years after $6 billion IMF bailout program. The country has increased key interest rates to more than double and devalued Pak rupee around 50 percent during last two years.
Moody’s says the fiscal strength has weakened with higher debt levels largely as a result of currency depreciation, ongoing fiscal reforms, including through the country’s (IMF) program, will mitigate risks related to debt sustainability and government liquidity.
The rating agency expects Pakistan’s current account deficit to continue narrowing in the current and next fiscal year, averaging around 2.2% of GDP, from more than 6% in fiscal 2018 and around 5% in fiscal 2019.
Under Moody’s baseline assumptions, subdued import growth will likely remain the main driver of narrowing current account deficits.
The country’s current account deficit has narrowed by 73.5 percent during the July-October of current fiscal year FY20 mainly due to declining imports, according to ministry of Finance.
Moody’s sees the possibility of monetary conditions easing when inflation gradually declines toward the end of the current fiscal year.
The rating affirmation reflects Pakistan’s relatively large economy and robust long-term growth potential, coupled with ongoing institutional enhancements that raise policy credibility and effectiveness, albeit from a low starting point.
“These credit strengths are balanced against structural constraints to economic and export competitiveness, the government’s low revenue generation capacity that weakens debt affordability, fiscal strength that will remain weak over the foreseeable future, as well as political and still-material external vulnerability risks,” the statement added.
On the fiscal side, Pakistan’s metrics have weakened recently, with wider fiscal deficits and an increase in government debt burden largely as a result of currency depreciation over the course of fiscal 2019. However, Moody’s expects ongoing fiscal reforms, anchored by the IMF program and technical assistance from other development partners, to contribute to a gradual narrowing of fiscal deficits. The reforms would also mitigate debt sustainability and government liquidity risks, according to the statement.
Moody’s expects the government’s fiscal deficit to remain relatively wide at around 8.6% of GDP in fiscal 2020, compared to 8.9% in fiscal 2019, before narrowing to an average of around 7% over fiscal 2021-23. High interest payments owing to policy rate hikes will continue to weigh on government finances and significantly constrain fiscal flexibility, the statement added.
Pakistan stocks exchange’s key index KSE-100 has surged by 39 percent since a low in August that makes it the top global performer in the world in last four months, according to the date shared by ministry of finance.
Moody’s upgrades Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable
Moody’s upgrades Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to stable
- Pakistan's ratings outlook was downgraded to negative in June 2018
- Pakistan posted current account surplus in October for the first time in four years after $6 billion IMF bailout
Pakistan stocks surge by more than 3,000 points on hopes of policy rate cuts
- Investor activity remained vibrant on Monday, with a total volume of 1,058 million shares traded
- Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent on Dec. 16, marking fifth straight reduction
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened the week on a positive note and surged by more than 3,000 points on Monday, amid hopes of further policy rate cuts.
The benchmark KSE-100 index soared by 3,907 points, or 3.51 percent percent, to close at 115,258 points, compared to Friday’s close of 111,351 points.
Investor activity remained vibrant, with a total volume of 1,058 million shares traded and a turnover of Rs40.8 billion, while hopes of further policy rate cut boosted market confidence.
“This upward momentum was fueled by optimism surrounding anticipated increases in equity fund allocations by local institutions ahead of the new year,” Topline Securities said in its market review.
“Adding further impetus was a statement from the finance minister over the weekend, suggesting a potential decline in interest rates to single-digit levels in the future.”
Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent on Dec. 16, it said in a statement. This was a fifth straight reduction since June as the country keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
The move followed cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 in July, 200 in September, and a record cut of 250 bps in November, that have taken the rate down from an all-time high of 22 percent, set in June 2023 and left unchanged for a year. It takes the total cuts to 900 bps since June.
Pakistan’s economy also grew by 0.92 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25, despite a contraction in the industrial sector, according to data approved by the National Accounts Committee, and released by its Statistics Bureau on Monday.
The growth was driven by positive performances in the agriculture and services sectors, which grew by 1.15 percent and 1.43 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of the fiscal year which ends in June 2025.
Pakistan reports 68th polio case of this year amid virus resurgence
- Pakistan on Monday began a week-long anti-polio vaccination in worst affected Balochistan province
- Pakistan, along with neighboring Afghanistan, remains the last polio-endemic country in the world
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has reported another case of polio virus in its northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, authorities said on Monday, taking the nationwide tally to 68 this year.
Polio is a paralyzing disease that has no cure. Multiple doses of the oral polio vaccine and completion of the routine vaccination schedule for all children under the age of five is essential to provide children high immunity against this terrible disease.
The Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication at the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad confirmed the wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case in KP’s Dera Ismail Khan district. This is the 10th polio case of the district this year.
“Pakistan is responding to the resurgence of WPV1 this year,” the country’s polio program said in a statement. “It is crucial for parents to ensure vaccination for all their children under the age of five to keep them protected.”
Of the 68 cases reported this year, 27 were from Balochistan, 20 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 19 from Sindh, and one each from Punjab and Islamabad, according to the polio program.
It said a sub-national polio vaccination campaign was conducted across Punjab, Sindh, KP, Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Islamabad on December 16–22, vaccinating over 42 million children.
The Balochistan government had postponed the anti-polio drive for two weeks due to security threats and a lack of preparedness stemming from a boycott of the campaign by provincial health staff.
“The campaign’s second phase started today [Monday] in Balochistan,” the polio program said. “To keep children safe, it is critical for parents to welcome vaccinators among them and bring their children forward for vaccination.”
Pakistan, along with neighboring Afghanistan, remains the last polio-endemic country in the world.
Pakistan’s economy grows 0.92 percent in Q1 of ongoing fiscal year
- The country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the IMF
- The growth was driven by positive performances in agriculture and services sectors, which grew by 1.15 percent and 1.43 percent, respectively
KARACHI: Pakistan’s economy grew by 0.92 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024-25, despite a contraction in the industrial sector, according to data approved by the National Accounts Committee, and released by its Statistics Bureau on Monday.
The South Asian country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
The growth was driven by positive performances in the agriculture and services sectors, which grew by 1.15 percent and 1.43 percent, respectively, in the first quarter of the fiscal year which ends in June 2025.
Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.69 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the previous 2023-24 fiscal year.
However, the industrial sector contracted by 1.03 percent, mainly due to a decline in mining and quarrying activities during July-September, read the report.
The committee compiling the national accounts approved the introduction of quarterly estimates of expenditure of the economy.
On the basis of latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for the last fiscal year, the overall size of the economy stood at 105.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($379.31 billion).
Annual per capita income in rupees was recorded at 472,263 Pakistani rupees ($1,696.35).
The committee also approved an updated annual growth rate for the last fiscal year 2023-24, which stood at 2.50 percent, slightly lower than the previously estimated 2.52 percent.
Pakistan’s new Gwadar airport set to launch flights to Muscat from Jan. 10
- The Chinese-funded airport is capable of handling A-380 aircraft and accommodating up to 4 million passengers annually, PM’s Office says
- The start of operations at Gwadar airport was delayed because of security review due to militant attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan in August
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s new Gwadar International Airport is set to begin flights to Muscat from January 10, the Pakistan prime minister’s office announced on Monday, following a months-long delay in the opening of the airport.
A security review prompted by deadly attacks by separatist militants in Balochistan in August delayed the airport’s opening to the end of this year. The $200-million Chinese-funded airport, which will handle both domestic and international flights, is expected to become one of Pakistan’s largest, according to the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority.
China has pledged over $65 billion in infrastructure, energy and other projects in Pakistan under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Part of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, the program in Pakistan is also developing a deep-water port close to the new airport in Gwadar, a joint venture between Pakistan, Oman and China that is close to completion.
On Monday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif presided over a meeting to discuss the airport’s operations and directed authorities to develop a strategy to establish it as a major transit hub, emphasizing the need to improve road connections between the airport and other parts of the country, particularly Balochistan.
“Flights from Gwadar to Muscat will start from Jan.10 next year,” the PM’s office said in a statement. “The Gwadar airport can handle A-380 aircraft and will be capable of accommodating 4 million passengers annually.”
The statement noted that the Gwadar International Airport has obtained necessary certifications from the Pakistan Airports Authority. Additionally, personnel from the Airports Security Force, Pakistan Customs, Anti-Narcotics Force, Federal Investigation Agency, and Border Health Services have been deployed at the airport.
The Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) plans to increase flights between Karachi and Gwadar to three times a week, while discussions are ongoing with private airlines and carriers from China, Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to launch both domestic and international services, according to the PM’s office. The airport will feature various facilities, including cold storage, cargo sheds, hotels and shopping malls, with banking services arranged through the State Bank of Pakistan.
Although no Chinese projects were targeted in militant attacks in August, they have been frequently attacked in the past by separatists who view China as a foreign invader trying to gain control of impoverished but mineral-rich Balochistan, the site of a decades-long insurgency.
Recent attacks, including one in which two Chinese workers were killed in a suicide bombing in Karachi, have forced Beijing to publicly criticize Pakistan over security lapses and there have been widespread media reports in recent weeks that China wants its own security forces on the ground to protest its nationals and projects, a demand Islamabad has long resisted.
In his remarks, Sharif highlighted that the Gwadar International Airport symbolized the strong China-Pakistan friendship, expressing gratitude to Beijing for constructing an airport with international standards and modern facilities. He also directed the implementation of comprehensive security measures at the airport.
The meeting was attended by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar, Economic Affairs Minister Ahsan Khan Cheema, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, and senior government officials. Deputy PM Ishaq Dar, along with Federal Minister for Privatization, Investment, and Communications Abdul Aleem Khan, also participated via video link.
Pakistan, Kenya agree to promote free trade amid Islamabad’s push for economic growth
- Pakistan to export pink salt, marble and cement to Kenya under fresh agreement, says state media
- Islamabad has sought to bolster international trade in its bid to achieve sustainable economic growth
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Kenya on Monday agreed to promote free trade between their countries, state-run media reported on Monday, as Islamabad seeks to achieve sustainable growth and attract investment in its vital economic sectors.
After narrowly escaping a sovereign default last year before clinching a last-gasp International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program, Pakistan has sought to enhance business and investment ties with regional allies and countries such as Russia, Central Asian states and Gulf nations to escape a prolonged macroeconomic crisis.
According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kenya is one of Pakistan’s largest African trading partners. Trade between the two countries is dominated by two commodities, rice and tea. Pakistan is the largest buyer of Kenyan tea in the world while Kenya is the largest destination for Pakistani basmati and non-basmati rice in the world.
“Pakistan and Kenya have agreed on a free trade agreement and mutual cooperation to enhance business and investment opportunities,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan said. “Under the agreement, Pakistan is expected to export pink salt, marble and cement to Kenya while bilateral trade in pharmaceuticals will also be increased.”
The fresh agreement between the two countries is expected to foster economic stability and growth, apart from enhancing their global market positions, Radio Pakistan said. It added that the agreement will also help lower prices, develop industries and increase business opportunities in both Pakistan and Kenya.
Islamabad and Nairobi established a Joint Ministerial Commission in 1992. Till date, three sessions of the commission have been held since then. The two sides have also established a Joint Trade and Investment Committee (JTIC), the first session of which was held in April 2021.
Pakistan’s total trade with Africa was recorded at $ 4.44 billion in 2022-23 of which $ 2.89 billion were imports and $ 1.55 billion were exports. The top three exports destinations for Pakistan in Africa are Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania. Pakistan’s major exportable items to African countries include rice, textile and clothing, pharmaceuticals, cement, agriculture machinery and paper.
The South Asian country mainly imports coal, petroleum, diphosphorus, tea, cotton and copper from African countries in return.
