What now awaits Turkey on the Libyan front?

Libyan National Army members, commanded by eastern commander Gen. Khalifa Haftar, head out of Benghazi to reinforce troops advancing on Tripoli. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 04 January 2020
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What now awaits Turkey on the Libyan front?

  • Insiders suggest some 200 Turkish marines will arrive in advisory, training and support roles

ANKARA: Turkish troops are expected to be sent to Libya to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) against Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar, after Turkey’s Parliament approved the motion for military deployment on Thursday evening. Insiders suggest some 200 Turkish marines will arrive in advisory, training and support roles.
However, beyond grabbing international headlines, the deployment has security risks, logistical constraints and geographic limitations compared to Turkey’s previous cross-border interventions in neighboring war zones such as Syria or Iraq.
For Karol Wasilewski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, Turkey will have to find a way to reconcile its interests and those of Russia in Libya.
“To be successful, it should probably gain broader support, because for now Turkey is isolated in its support for Fayez Al-Serraj’s GNA. I also think that securing manpower for this operation may be a challenge — Turkey may send its own troops for training, but I find it unlikely that it will send soldiers for combat missions,” he told Arab News.
“Thus, it will have to continue sending Syrian rebels, and it seems they are unwilling to go, especially during (Syrian President Bashar) Assad’s assault on Idlib,” Wasilewski added.
Experts also caution against an influx of irregular troops and mercenaries into Libya which could escalate the situation in the ground.
Overt support for the GNA could also strain Turkish relations with other regional powers supporting Haftar.
Wasilewski anticipates that a proxy war is about to accelerate across the region. Egypt has already criticized Ankara’s decision to deploy troops, and called on the international community to react.
“Technically speaking, Egypt has the capacity to complicate Turkey’s operation in the sea, so there is one possible source of escalation,” he said.
Cairo is not the only party Ankara must contend with — Russia, too, has taken an interest in Libya. Dmitry Novikov, a Russian lawmaker, told Interfax news agency that a Turkish military presence in Libya would “only deteriorate the situation,” and Russian private military contractors have allegedly been drafted in to support Haftar’s forces.

Turkey is isolated in its support for Fayez Al-Serraj’s GNA. I find it unlikely that it will send soldiers for combat missions.

Karol Wasilewski, a foreign affairs expert

All eyes are now on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expected visit to Ankara on Jan. 8, with Libya ranking on the top of the bilateral agenda.
Galip Dalay, a visiting scholar at the University of Oxford, expects a sort of Astana-style deal around Tripoli after Putin’s visit.
“But in return, Russia may expect some compromises from Turkey in Syria’s opposition-held Idlib province, and try to get some advantages for the Assad regime in that zone,” he told Arab News.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, agrees.
“A significant deployment by Turkey to Libya would be contingent on tacit Russian approval based on an Astana-like process. This would not only increase Russian leverage over Turkey, but would probably come with a price tag. The price could be a new arms deal, concessions in Syria or anything that would benefit Russia,” he told Arab News.
Turkish opposition members who voted against the motion have suggested Turkey should persuade the UN to deploy a peacekeeping mission to the country.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his US counterpart Donald Trump discussed the unfolding events in Libya in a phone call on Jan. 2. According to the readout issued by the White House: “President Trump pointed out that foreign interference is complicating the situation in Libya,” with no details added about which countries Trump was referring to.


Israel strikes Yemen’s Sana’a airport, ports and power stations

Smoke rises after Israeli strikes near Sanaa airport, in Sanaa, Yemen, December 26, 2024. (Reuters)
Updated 24 min 10 sec ago
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Israel strikes Yemen’s Sana’a airport, ports and power stations

  • Houthis said that multiple air raids targeted an airport, military air base and a power station in Yemen

JERUSALEM: Israel’s military said it struck multiple targets linked to the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen on Thursday, including Sana’a International Airport and three ports along the western coast.
Attacks hit Yemen’s Hezyaz and Ras Kanatib power stations as well as military infrastructure in the ports of Hodeidah, Salif and Ras Kanatib, Israel’s military added.
The Houthis have repeatedly fired drones and missiles toward Israel in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The Israeli attacks on the airport, Hodeidah and on one power station, were reported by Al Masirah TV, the main television news outlet run by the Houthis.
More than a year of Houthi attacks have disrupted international shipping routes, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys that have in turn stoked fears over global inflation.
Israel has instructed its diplomatic missions in Europe to try to get the Houthis designated as a terrorist organization.
The UN Security Council is due to meet on Monday over Houthi attacks against Israel, Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said on Wednesday.
On Saturday, Israel’s military failed to intercept a missile from Yemen that fell in the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, injuring 14 people. 


Syria authorities say torched 1 million captagon pills

Updated 26 December 2024
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Syria authorities say torched 1 million captagon pills

DAMASCUS: Syria’s new authorities torched a large stockpile of drugs on Wednesday, two security officials told AFP, including one million pills of captagon, whose industrial-scale production flourished under ousted president Bashar Assad.
Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war, effectively turning it into a narco state under Assad.
“We found a large quantity of captagon, around one million pills,” said a balaclava-wearing member of the security forces, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Osama, and whose khaki uniform bore a “public security” patch.
An AFP journalist saw forces pour fuel over and set fire to a cache of cannabis, the painkiller tramadol, and around 50 bags of pink and yellow captagon pills in a security compound formerly belonging to Assad’s forces in the capital’s Kafr Sousa district.
Captagon has flooded the black market across the region in recent years, with oil-rich Saudi Arabia a major destination.
“The security forces of the new government discovered a drug warehouse as they were inspecting the security quarter,” said another member of the security forces, who identified himself as Hamza.
Authorities destroyed the stocks of alcohol, cannabis, captagon and hashish in order to “protect Syrian society” and “cut off smuggling routes used by Assad family businesses,” he added.
Syria’s new Islamist rulers have yet to spell out their policy on alcohol, which has long been widely available in the country.

Since an Islamist-led rebel alliance toppled Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, Syria’s new authorities have said massive quantities of captagon have been found in former government sites around the country, including security branches.
AFP journalists in Syria have seen fighters from Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) set fire to what they said were stashes of captagon found at facilities once operated by Assad’s forces.
Security force member Hamza confirmed Wednesday that “this is not the first initiative of its kind — the security services, in a number of locations, have found other warehouses... and drug manufacturing sites and destroyed them in the appropriate manner.”
Maher Assad, a military commander and the brother of Bashar Assad, is widely accused of being the power behind the lucrative captagon trade.
Experts believe Syria’s former leader used the threat of drug-fueled unrest to put pressure on Arab governments.
A Saudi delegation met Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus on Sunday, a source close to the government told AFP, to discuss the “Syria situation and captagon.”
Jordan in recent years has also cracked down on the smuggling of weapons and drugs including captagon along its 375-kilometer (230-mile) border with Syria.


Jordan says 18,000 Syrians returned home since Assad’s fall

Updated 26 December 2024
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Jordan says 18,000 Syrians returned home since Assad’s fall

AMMAN: About 18,000 Syrians have crossed into their country from Jordan since the government of Bashar Assad was toppled earlier this month, Jordanian authorities said on Thursday.
Interior Minister Mazen Al-Faraya told state TV channel Al-Mamlaka that “around 18,000 Syrians have returned to their country between the fall of the regime of Bashar Assad on December 8, 2024 until Thursday.”
He said the returnees included 2,300 refugees registered with the United Nations.
Amman says it has hosted about 1.3 million Syrians who fled their country since civil war broke out in 2011, with 650,000 formally registered with the United Nations.


Lebanon hopes for neighborly relations in first message to new Syria government

Updated 26 December 2024
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Lebanon hopes for neighborly relations in first message to new Syria government

  • Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah played a major part propping up Syria’s ousted President Bashar Assad through years of war
  • Syria’s new Islamist de-facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa is seeking to establish relations with Arab and Western leaders

DUBAI: Lebanon said on Thursday it was looking forward to having the best neighborly relations with Syria, in its first official message to the new administration in Damascus.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib passed the message to his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani, in a phone call, the Lebanese Foreign Ministry said on X.
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah played a major part propping up Syria’s ousted President Bashar Assad through years of war, before bringing its fighters back to Lebanon over the last year to fight in a bruising war with Israel – a redeployment which weakened Syrian government lines.
Under Assad, Hezbollah used Syria to bring in weapons and other military equipment from Iran, through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon. But on Dec. 6, anti-Assad fighters seized the border with Iraq and cut off that route, and two days later, Islamist militants captured the capital Damascus.
Syria’s new Islamist de-facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa is seeking to establish relations with Arab and Western leaders after toppling Assad.


Iraqi intelligence chief discusses border security with new Syrian administration

Updated 26 December 2024
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Iraqi intelligence chief discusses border security with new Syrian administration

BAGHDAD: An Iraqi delegation met with Syria’s new rulers in Damascus on Thursday, an Iraqi government spokesman said, the latest diplomatic outreach more than two weeks after the fall of Bashar Assad’s rule.
The delegation, led by Iraqi intelligence chief Hamid Al-Shatri, “met with the new Syrian administration,” government spokesman Bassem Al-Awadi told state media, adding that the parties discussed “the developments in the Syrian arena, and security and stability needs on the two countries’ shared border.”